2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi

The 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was reelected to a second full term, defeating his Democratic challenger, David Baria.

Not to be confused with 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi.
2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi
November 6, 2018
Turnout49.66%
 
Nominee Roger Wicker David Baria
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 547,619 369,567
Percentage 58.5% 39.5%
County Results

Wicker:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Baria:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%

     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Roger Wicker
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Roger Wicker
Republican

Elections in Mississippi

The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018, with a runoff on June 26 if a party's primary fails to produce a majority winner.[1] The race took place on the same day as the nonpartisan jungle primary for the other U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi, which was vacated by Thad Cochran in the spring of 2018.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements
Roger Wicker
U.S. Presidents
Governors
Statewide Officials
U.S. Senators
Mississippi State Officials
  • Dane Maxwell, Mayor of Pascagoula[16]
Chris McDaniel (withdrawn)
Political operatives
  • Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC[17]
  • Laura Van Overschelde, Chair of the Mississippi Tea Party[18]
  • Grant Sowell, Chair of the Tupelo Tea Party[19]

Results
Results by county
Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roger Wicker (incumbent) 130,118 82.79%
Republican Richard Boyanton 27,052 17.21%
Total votes 157,170 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
Jensen Bohren
Organizations
  • Jackpine Radicals[30]
  • Vote STEM[31]
  • Sustainable Politician Project[32]
  • Mississippi DSA[33]
David Baria
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 David
Baria		 Jensen
Bohren		 Omeria
Scott		 Howard
Sherman		 Undecided
Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 2018 446 7% 4% 9% 2% 79%

Results
Initial primary results by county
Democratic primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Howard Sherman 27,957 31.79%
Democratic David Baria 27,244 30.98%
Democratic Omeria Scott 21,278 24.20%
Democratic Victor G. Maurice Jr. 4,361 4.96%
Democratic Jerone Garland 4,266 4.85%
Democratic Jensen Bohren 2,825 3.21%
Total votes 87,931 100%

Runoff results
Primary runoff results by county
Democratic primary runoff results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Baria 44,156 58.64%
Democratic Howard Sherman 31,149 41.36%
Total votes 75,305 100%

Independents and third party candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared
  • Danny Bedwell, candidate for MS-01 in 2012 and 2014[23]

Reform Party

Declared

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[40] Solid R September 29, 2017
Inside Elections[41] Solid R September 29, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] Safe R September 27, 2017
Fox News[43] Likely R^ July 9, 2018
CNN[44] Solid R July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[45] Safe R June 2018

^Highest rating given

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
Candidate Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Roger Wicker (R) $5,349,028 $3,831,418 $3,138,044
David Baria (D) $532,629 $528,325 $72,922
Source: Federal Election Commission[46]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Roger
Wicker (R)		 David
Baria (D)		 Danny
Bedwell (L)		 Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 1,003 – 48% 40% 5% 3%[47] –
Marist College October 13–18, 2018 511 LV ± 6.1% 57% 31% 2% 2%[48] 9%
60% 32% – 2% 7%
856 RV ± 4.7% 54% 30% 3% 2%[48] 10%
57% 32% – 2% 9%
SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018 985 ± 4.3% 43% 29% – – 27%
Triumph Campaigns July 30–31, 2018 2,100 ± 3.5% 53% 32% 1% 2%[49] 12%
Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 48% 31% – – 21%

Results
United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018[50]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Roger Wicker (incumbent) 547,619 58.49% +1.33%
Democratic David Baria 369,567 39.47% -1.08%
Libertarian Danny Bedwell 12,981 1.39% N/A
Reform Shawn O'Hara 6,048 0.65% -0.41%
Total votes 936,215 100% N/A
Republican hold
gollark: <@!323502550340861963> I have my reasons.
gollark: Assuming you can type fast enough.
gollark: With some simple use of pulseaudio or whatever you prefer and espeak, you don't need a microphone.
gollark: You can use espeak like me, then.
gollark: It would hypothetically be fairly safe to only talk about it in meta-level hypotheticals.

References
  1. "United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  2. "Former President Bush to attend private event in Jackson". Starkville Daily News. June 1, 2017. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2017.
  3. "Candidacy form" (PDF). docquery.fec.gov.
  4. Pender, Geoff (November 16, 2015). "Some post-Trump political prognostics". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
  5. "Precursor to 2018? Coordinated effort by McDaniel, Sojourner, Walters to malign Sen. @RogerWicker". Yall Politics. November 14, 2015. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
  6. Harrison, Bobby (July 9, 2017). "Will Tupelo's Wicker face McDaniel challenge in 2018 Senate race?". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  7. "GOP showdown: McDaniel expected to challenge Wicker for Senate".
  8. Swanson, Ian (28 February 2018). "McDaniel makes GOP Senate challenge official in Miss".
  9. "McDaniel to Run for Open Mississippi Senate Seat - Chris McDaniel for US Senate". 14 March 2018. Archived from the original on 15 March 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2018.
  10. "Senator Chris McDaniel". www.facebook.com.
  11. "Ex-President George W. Bush Raises Money for Sen. Wicker". U.S. News. June 1, 2017. Retrieved March 4, 2018.
  12. "President Donald Trump is backing Sen. Roger Wicker against a Steve Bannon-led challenge by Chris McDaniel". The Sun Herald. October 20, 2017. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
  13. Phil Bryant. "I agree with @realDonaldTrump. Sen. Roger Wicker has been instrumental in cutting taxes, eliminating burdensome regulations, creating jobs and strengthening our border. Mississippi needs Sen. Wicker in Washington, and I hope you will join me in voting for him on June 5". Twitter.
  14. Greg Snowden. "Every citizen is entitled to their own opinion, of course, but for myself, I stand with President Donald Trump in supporting the re-election of Senator Roger Wicker". Twitter.
  15. "Santorum Endorses Wicker".
  16. Ulmer, Sarah (December 15, 2017). "Pascagoula Mayor Dane Maxwell: We're going to fight to keep Senator Wicker". Y'all Politics. Retrieved December 15, 2017.
  17. "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Retrieved January 4, 2018. If Senator Chris McDaniel chooses to run for U.S. Senate, he will have our support and the support of these state and local leaders, along with many of their grassroots organizations... We are ready to hit the ground running to elect Chris McDaniel.
  18. "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Retrieved January 4, 2018. In 2014, the common folks of Mississippi made the very definite statement that we are not being heard and those in power have no intention of hearing us... One person, Chris McDaniel, had the courage to say enough is enough. We almost got it done and common people all over the country recognized what we nearly accomplished. We support Chris McDaniel’s efforts to reestablish governance by the consent of the governed.
  19. "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Retrieved January 4, 2018. Year after year, our Senators and Congressmen rank so low on most conservative scorecards. It’s time we elect a Senator who truly represents Mississippi’s conservative constituency.
  20. "2018 Mississippi Republican primary election results" (PDF). Retrieved 12 June 2019.
  21. Dovere, Edward-Isaac (February 28, 2018). "Democrat David Baria enters Senate race in Mississippi". POLITICO.
  22. "BOHREN, JENSEN MR - Candidate overview - FEC.gov". FEC.gov.
  23. "Qualifying list" (PDF). www.sos.ms.gov.
  24. "Omeria Scott running for US Senate". WTOK.com. March 1, 2018.
  25. Hall, Sam R.; Pender, Geoff (February 28, 2018). "2 Democrats — state lawmaker, Sela Ward's husband — enter #MSSEN race". Clarion Ledger. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  26. "Here are a few Democrats who could make a U.S. Senate run in Mississippi". The Clarion Ledger. Retrieved 2017-12-29.
  27. "Millennial Democrat enters 4th Congressional District race". sunherald. Retrieved 2017-12-29.
  28. Harrison, Bobby (October 19, 2017). "Presley could be hope for Democrats under right circumstances". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
  29. Dovere, Edward-Isaac (January 18, 2018). "Top Democratic recruit passes on Mississippi Senate run". Politico. Retrieved January 18, 2018.
  30. "2018 election progressive candidates". JackpineRadicals.com. Jackpine Radicals. November 23, 2017. Archived from the original on December 14, 2017. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
  31. "2018 Mississippi Candidates Vetted". VoteSTEM.org. Vote STEM. February 5, 2018. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
  32. "Sustainable Politician Project". sustainablepoliticianproject.com. Sustainable Politician Project. May 7, 2018. Retrieved May 15, 2018.
  33. "Vote For Jensen". Twitter.com. MSDSA. June 3, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2018.
  34. Muller, Tiffany (September 6, 2018). "End Citizens United Endorses Five Reformers for Congress". End Citizens United.
  35. "Baria endorsed by Mississippi AFL-CIO". bariaformississippi.com. March 27, 2018. Retrieved May 13, 2018.
  36. "Baria gets endorsement from MAE". WTOK. October 9, 2018.
  37. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements".
  38. "2018 Mississippi Democratic primary election results" (PDF). Retrieved 12 June 2019.
  39. "2018 Mississippi Democratic primary runoff election results" (PDF). Retrieved 12 June 2019.
  40. "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  41. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  42. "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  43. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  44. "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  45. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  46. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved July 27, 2018.
  47. Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 3%
  48. Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 1%, other with 1%
  49. Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 2%
  50. http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Pages/2018-General-Election.aspx
Official campaign websites
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