Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group at MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in the Imperial College Faculty of Medicine which studies the COVID-19 pandemic and advises the government of the United Kingdom.[1] Its leader is Neil Ferguson.[2]
| Formation | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Founded at | Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine |
| Headquarters | London, England |
| Services | Reports relating to the COVID-19 pandemic to advise the UK government |
Membership | 50 scientists |
On 16 March 2020 the COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two thirds of the time.[3] On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published.[4] It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised with CovidSim), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates.[4] As of 4 August, the COVID-19 Response Team has produced 30 reports.[5]
Reports
Estimates
11 European countries estimates on March 28, 2020
| Population infected by country | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICCRT's model projection for March 28[4] | WHO lab-confirmed March 29 | |||||
| Country | Population | Infected
(95% range) |
Infected
(mean %) |
Cases
(est.) |
Cases | Detected
(% of pop.) |
| Austria | 8,999,973 | 0.36%-3.1% | 1.1% | 99000 | 8291 | 0.09% |
| Belgium | 11,579,502 | 1.3%-9.7% | 3.7% | 428400 | 9134 | 0.08% |
| Denmark | 5,785,741 | 0.40%-3.1% | 1.1% | 63600 | 2201 | 0.04% |
| France | 65,227,357 | 1.1%-7.4% | 3.0% | 1956800 | 37145 | 0.06% |
| Germany | 83,792,987 | 0.28%-1.8% | 0.72% | 603300 | 52547 | 0.06% |
| Italy | 60,496,082 | 3.2%-26% | 9.8% | 5928600 | 92472 | 0.15% |
| Norway | 5,407,670 | 0.09%-1.2% | 0.41% | 22200 | 3845 | 0.07% |
| Spain | 46,767,543 | 3.7%-41% | 15% | 7015100 | 72248 | 0.15% |
| Sweden | 10,081,948 | 0.85%-8.4% | 3.1% | 312500 | 3447 | 0.03% |
| Switzerland | 8,637,694 | 1.3%-7.6% | 3.2% | 276400 | 13152 | 0.15% |
| United Kingdom | 67,803,450 | 1.2%-5.4% | 2.7% | 1830700 | 17093 | 0.03% |
| Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on March 29, 10am Central European Time. | ||||||
World estimates for 3 strategies
| Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies.[6] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unmitigated Scenario | Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week | Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week | ||||
| Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | |
| East Asia & Pacific | 2,117,131,000 | 15,303,000 | 92,544,000 | 442,000 | 632,619,000 | 3,315,000 |
| Europe & Central Asia | 801,770,000 | 7,276,000 | 61,578,000 | 279,000 | 257,706,000 | 1,397,000 |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 566,993,000 | 3,194,000 | 45,346,000 | 158,000 | 186,595,000 | 729,000 |
| Middle East & North Africa | 419,138,000 | 1,700,000 | 30,459,000 | 113,000 | 152,262,000 | 594,000 |
| North America | 326,079,000 | 2,981,000 | 17,730,000 | 92,000 | 90,529,000 | 520,000 |
| South Asia | 1,737,766,000 | 7,687,000 | 111,703,000 | 475,000 | 629,164,000 | 2,693,000 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 1,044,858,000 | 2,483,000 | 110,164,000 | 298,000 | 454,968,000 | 1,204,000 |
| Total | 7,013,734,000 | 40,624,000 | 469,523,000 | 1,858,000 | 2,403,843,000 | 10,452,000 |
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See also
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions
References
- Landler, Mark; Castle, Stephen (17 March 2020). "Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 30 March 2020.
- Adam, David (2020). "Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19". Nature. 580 (7803): 316–318. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6. PMID 32242115.
- Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (16 March 2020). "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand" (PDF).
- Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (30 March 2020). "Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries" (PDF). p. 35.
- "COVID-19 reports". Imperial College London. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
- "Report 12 - The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression". Imperial College London. Retrieved 4 April 2020.
External links
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