2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence.

2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)
 
Nominee Jay Nixon Dave Spence
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,494,056 1,160,265
Percentage 54.8% 42.5%
County results
Nixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
Spence:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elections in Missouri

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

The Democratic primary was held on August 8, 2012.

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jay Nixon (incumbent) 269,865 86.0%
Democratic William Campbell 25,721 8.2%
Democratic Clay Thunderhawk 18,228 5.8%
Total votes 313,814 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates
  • Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer[3]
  • Fred Sauer, investment executive and pro-life activist[1]
  • Dave Spence, businessman[1]
  • John Weiler[1]

Polling
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Bill
Randles		 Fred
Sauer		 Dave
Spence		 John
Weiler		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 4–5, 2012 590 ± 4.0% 15% 12% 42% 3% 29%
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 400 ± 5.0% 15% 1% 41% 3% 40%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 430 ± 4.7% 11% 4% 32% 1% 43%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 574 ± 4.1% 15% — 11% — 74%

Results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dave Spence 333,578 59.9%
Republican Bill Randles 90,651 16.3%
Republican Fred Sauer 83,695 15.0%
Republican John Weiler 49,006 8.8%
Total votes 556,930 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declined
  • Leonard Steinman[1]

Results
Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jim Higgins 2,500 100.0%
Total votes 2,500 100.0%

General election

Debates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[4] Lean D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Likely D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[6] Likely D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[7] Lean D November 5, 2012

Polling
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Jay
Nixon (D)		 Dave
Spence (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 835 ± 3.4% 53% 45% — 2%
SurveyUSA October 28–November 3, 2012 589 ± 4.1% 48% 39% 5% 8%
Mason-Dixon October 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4% 48% 42% — 9%
Public Policy Polling October 19–21, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 51% 40% — 8%
Public Policy Polling October 1–3, 2012 700 ± 3.7% 54% 35% — 12%
Public Policy Polling August 20, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 46% 37% — 16%
Survey USA August 9–12, 2012 585 ± 4.1% 51% 37% 5% 6%
Chilenski Strategies August 8, 2012 663 ± 3.8% 53% 39% — 9%
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 48% 39% — 13%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 602 ± 4.0% 45% 34% — 21%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 47% 27% — 26%

Results

Nixon won with a comfortable margin, even though it was a little closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Nixon, like McCaskill was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races, even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis, and Kansas City came in.

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012[8]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Jay Nixon (incumbent) 1,494,056 54.77% -3.63%
Republican Dave Spence 1,160,265 42.53% +3.04%
Libertarian Jim Higgins 73,509 2.70% +1.59%
Write-in 53 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,727,883 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
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See also

References
  1. Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
  2. "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
  3. "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". 25 August 2011.
  4. "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  5. "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  6. "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  7. "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  8. https://enrarchives.sos.mo.gov/enrnet/default.aspx?eid=750002497
  • Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State
Campaign sites (Archived)
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