2020 New Zealand general election

The 2020 New Zealand general election will be held after the currently elected 52nd New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that the election date would be 17 October 2020,[1] after originally having it set for 19 September.[2]

2020 New Zealand general election
17 October 2020
All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the House of Representatives
61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Judith Collins Jacinda Ardern Winston Peters
Party National Labour NZ First
Leader since 14 July 2020 1 August 2017 18 July 1993
(party foundation)
Leader's seat Papakura Mount Albert List
Last election 56 seats, 44.45% 46 seats, 36.89% 9 seats, 7.20%
Current seats 54 46 9
 
Leader Marama Davidson & James Shaw David Seymour
Party Green ACT
Leader since 8 April 2018 &
30 May 2015		 4 October 2014
Leader's seat List Epsom
Last election 8 seats, 6.27% 1 seat, 0.50%
Current seats 8 1
Map of the seats to be contested in the election. General electorates are shown on the left, Māori electorates in the centre, and the list seats on the right.
Incumbent Prime Minister

Jacinda Ardern
Labour

Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members are elected from single-member electorates and 48 members are elected from closed party lists. As of 31 July 2020, around 3.28 million people are registered to vote in the election out of an estimated eligible population of 3.77 million.[3]

After the previous election, the centre-left Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, formed a minority coalition government with the New Zealand First party, with confidence and supply from the Green Party. The main opponent to the Labour–NZ First government is the centre-right National Party, led by Judith Collins.[4] The ACT Party is the sole other party in Parliament, represented by a single MP. It will be the second general election (the first being 1999) where both major parties have female leaders.

A referendum on personal cannabis consumption is planned to be held at the same time, along with a referendum on euthanasia due to the End of Life Choice Bill passing its third reading in parliament.[5][6]

Background
Main article: 2017 New Zealand general election

The final results of the 2017 election gave National 56 seats, while Labour and the Greens combined had 54 seats. New Zealand First won 9 seats, which put them in the position to give either National or Labour the 61 seats needed to form a government. On 19 October 2017, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, announced that he would form a coalition government with Labour.[7] On the same day, James Shaw, leader of the Green Party, announced that his party would give confidence and supply to a Labour–NZ First government.[8] The result of the election saw the Labour Party regain power after nine years in opposition, as well as the end of the Fifth National Government which had been in power for three terms (2008–2017). The 2017 election also saw the first party under MMP in New Zealand to lead a government without commanding the plurality of the party vote.

On 22 May 2020, a leadership election occurred, following two low polls, in which Todd Muller replaced Simon Bridges as leader of the National Party and Leader of the Opposition, and Nikki Kaye replaced Paula Bennett as deputy leader of the party.[9] Muller resigned on 14 July 2020 for health reasons, leading to another leadership election later that day, in which Judith Collins was voted into the National leadership position.[10]

Current standings
Party affiliation Seats
2017 election Current
Labour[lower-roman 1] 46 46
NZ First[lower-roman 1] 9 9
Green[lower-roman 2] 8 8
Government total 63 63
National[lower-roman 3] 56 54
ACT 1 1
Independent[lower-roman 3] 0 1
Opposition total 57 56
Total 120 119[lower-roman 4]
Working Government majority 6 7
Current seating plan of Parliament
  1. New Zealand First announced a coalition agreement with the Labour Party on 19 October 2017.
  2. The Green Party entered into a confidence and supply agreement with the Labour Party on the same day as the coalition was announced.
  3. National MP Jami-Lee Ross resigned from the party in October 2018 after an alleged leak of party documents and a public spat with then party leader Simon Bridges. He has continued to represent his electorate as an independent MP and will contest the same electorate in 2020 for the Advance NZ party.
  4. National MP Andrew Falloon resigned less than six months before the 2020 general election and therefore a by-election to fill the vacancy was not required.[11]

Electoral system
Main article: Electoral system of New Zealand

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, no party has won enough votes to win an outright majority of seats. As a result, parties must negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

Electorate boundaries
The 2014 electoral boundaries showing electorates out of tolerance following the 2018 census and Māori electoral option. Red electorates are more than 5% above quota and therefore must drop population. Blue electorates are more than 5% below quota and therefore must add population.

Electorate boundaries for the next election are required to be redrawn after each New Zealand census. The most recent census was held in 2018.

By law, the number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16,[12] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion to the population. Each electorate must have the same population, with a tolerance of plus or minus five percent. For the 2014 and 2017 elections, there were 48 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, giving a total of 71 electorates.

On 23 September 2019, Statistics New Zealand announced that population growth necessitated one additional North Island general electorate,[13] bringing the total number of North Island general electorates to 49 and the overall number of electorates to 72 (reducing the number of list seats available by one).[14] Statistics New Zealand also announced that 11 North Island, three South Island, and two Māori electorates were above 5% tolerance, while five South Island electorates and one Māori electorate were below 5% tolerance.[15]

The Representation Commission undertook a review of electoral boundaries. This review was commenced in October 2019 and was completed in April 2020.[16] The boundaries will apply in the 2020 general election, and the subsequent general election. In total, 36 electorates remained unchanged, 35 electorates were modified, and one new electorate created. The most significant boundary changes occurred in the Auckland, Waikato, central Canterbury, and Otago regions, with smaller changes in the Northland and Tasman regions.[17]

The new electorate was created in South Auckland and named Takanini. Taking area from the Hunua, Manurewa, and Papakura electorates, Takanini is predicted to be a National-tilting to marginal electorate.[18] Takanini's creation cascaded existing electorates north through Auckland and south through Waikato. Significant changes to the north include Manukau East taking Sylvia Park and Panmure from Maungakiekie, with the electorate renamed Panmure-Ōtāhuhu; New Lynn taking the Waitakere Ranges from Helensville; Helensville taking Wellsford, Warkworth and the Kowhai Coast from Rodney and Northland, with the electorate renamed Kaipara ki Mahurangi; and Rodney taking Dairy Flat from Helensville and being renamed Whangaparāoa. To the south, Papakura took the entire Hunua electorate east of State Highway 1, in exchange for Hunua taking the northern part of the Waikato electorate as far south as, and including, Te Kauwhata. Hunua subsequently returned to its pre-2008 name, Port Waikato. Waikato took Te Aroha and the remainder of the Matamata-Piako District area from Coromandel, allowing Coromandel to take Omokoroa from Bay of Plenty.[19]

In the South Island, Selwyn lost the Rakaia area to Rangitata, Mcleans Island and Christchurch Airport to Ilam, and Hornby South to Wigram. Ilam gained Avonhead from Wigram, allowing Wigram to take Aidanfield from Port Hills, which in turn allowed Port Hills to take the entire Banks Peninsula from Selwyn. Port Hills subsequently returned to its pre-2008 name of Banks Peninsula. Clutha-Southland lost the Tuatapere-Te Waewae area to Invercargill and Balclutha, Milton and the lower Clutha Valley to Dunedin South, while gaining Alexandra, Clyde and the Clutha Valley upstream of Beaumont from Waitaki. Waitaki in turn took the Palmerston area from Dunedin North, allowing Dunedin North to take the Otago Peninsula from Dunedin South. The Otago-Southland boundary changes saw three electorates change names: Clutha-Southland to Southland, Dunedin North to Dunedin, and Dunedin South to Taieri. In the Tasman region, the town of Brightwater moved from Nelson to West Coast-Tasman to bring the latter electorate within quota.[19]

Two electorates had name changes to correct their spelling. Rimutaka was renamed Remutaka in line with its namesake, the Remutaka Range, which was renamed in 2017 as part of a Treaty of Waitangi settlement. The Whangārei electorate was renamed by adding a macron to the second letter A.[19]

Election date and timeline

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The previous election was held on 23 September 2017.

The governor-general (Patsy Reddy) must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2017 election were returned on 12 October 2017; as a result, the 52nd Parliament would have to dissolve no later than 12 October 2020. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 19 October 2020. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount, death of a candidate, or emergency adjournment), which would be 7 December 2020.[20] Because polling day must be on a Saturday,[20] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for this general election is 21 November 2020.

The Electoral Amendment Act 2020, which came into force on 11 March 2020, extended the writ period to 60 days.[21] This means that the last day for the return of the writs would be extended to 17 December 2020, and the last possible date of the election would be extended to 28 November 2020.

On 28 January 2020, Ardern announced that the election will be held on 19 September,[22] with the current parliament holding its last sitting day on 6 August and dissolving on 12 August.[2] (19 September is the 127th anniversary of New Zealand becoming the first nation in the world to grant women the right to vote[23]). The writ date for the election was originally set for 16 August,[24] and political parties would have had to be registered by this day to contest the party vote.[25]

On 17 August 2020, Ardern delayed the election to 17 October,[1] with the dissolution of Parliament delayed until 6 September.[26]

The timetable for the general election is as follows:[27]

28 January 2020 (Tuesday) Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces the general election will be held on 19 September
19 June 2020 (Friday) The regulated election advertising period begins.
6 July 2020 (Monday) Electoral Commission begins enrolment update campaign.
18 July 2020 (Saturday) Election hoardings may be erected (subject to local council rules).
6 September 2020 (Sunday)[26] The 52nd Parliament is dissolved.
13 September 2020 (Sunday) Writ day – Governor-General issues formal direction to the Electoral Commission to hold the election.
Last day to ordinarily enrol to vote (late enrolments must cast special votes)
Official campaigning begins; radio and television advertising begins
17 September 2020 (Thursday) Deadline (12:00) for registered parties to lodge bulk nominations of candidates and party lists.
18 September 2020 (Friday) Deadline (12:00) for individual candidates to lodge nominations.
30 September 2020 (Wednesday) Overseas voting begins
3 October 2020 (Saturday) Advance voting begins
16 October 2020 (Friday) Advance and overseas voting ends.
Last day to enrol to vote (except in-person at polling places).
The regulated election advertising period ends; all election advertising must be taken down by 23:59.
17 October 2020 (Saturday) Election day – polling places open 09:00 to 19:00.
People may enrol in-person at polling places.
Preliminary election results released progressively after 19:00
30 October 2020 (Friday) Preliminary referendum results released
6 November 2020 (Friday) Official election and referendum results declared
12 November 2020 (Thursday) Writ for election returned; official declaration of elected members (subject to judicial recounts)

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic
See also: COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand

The date of 19 September was announced before the COVID-19 pandemic had reached New Zealand. In April 2020, the National Party doubted that the public would be ready for an election in September, and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters called for the election to be delayed to 21 November.[28][29] In May 2020, Ardern said she did not intend to change the date of the election and Chief Electoral Officer Alicia Wright said that the Electoral Commission was working to the dates originally set by the Prime Minister.[30]

After new cases of community transmission in Auckland were reported on 11 August 2020, with the COVID-19 alert level being raised to level 3 in the Auckland region and level 2 elsewhere, there were growing calls to delay the dissolution of Parliament and the election.[31] The following day, Leader of the Opposition Judith Collins called for the election to be delayed until at least after November with the aim of allowing parties more time to campaign,[32] and all major political parties suspended their campaigns.[33] Delaying the dissolution of parliament beyond 12 October 2020, and therefore the election date beyond 28 November 2020, would require a legislative amendment. As the length of the parliamentary term is entrenched, such an amendment would require a 75% supermajority to pass.[34]

On 12 August 2020, Prime Minister Ardern delayed the dissolution of Parliament until 17 August and was seeking advice from the Electoral Commission regarding the election timeline. On 17 August, Ardern announced that the general election would be pushed back to 17 October while the dissolution of Parliament would be delayed until 6 September 2020.[35][26]

The Chief Electoral Officer has powers under the Electoral Act to delay polling at some or all polling places for up to three days due to unforeseen circumstances. This can be extended for up to seven days at a time following consultation with the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition.[36]

Potential parties and candidates
Further information: Candidates in the 2020 New Zealand general election by electorate and Party lists in the 2020 New Zealand general election

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission can contest the general election as a party. To register, parties must have at least 500 financial members, an auditor, and an appropriate party name.[37] A registered party may submit a party list to contest the party vote, and can have a party campaign expenses limit in addition to limits on individual candidates' campaigns. Unregistered parties and independents can contest the electorate vote only.

Since the 2017 general election, three parties have formally been de-registered. On 14 November 2017, United Future leader Damian Light announced that his party would be dissolved, and thus not contest any future elections.[38] The Ban 1080 Party was deregistered on 28 February 2018 at the party's request.[39] The Internet Party was deregistered on 12 June 2018 because its membership had dropped below the 500 required for registration.[40]

The Opportunities Party announced on 9 July 2018 that the party was to be deregistered following its board's decision to not contest any future elections.[41] The decision was reversed on 20 August 2018 reportedly due to an influx of supporters asking the party to continue.[42]

The Mana Party remains registered, but has not applied for a broadcasting allocation, and has endorsed and offered its resources to the Māori Party.[43]

As of 6 August 2020, the following parties are registered to contest the general election:[44]

Party Leader(s) Founded Ideology 2017 result Current seats
NationalJudith Collins1936Liberal conservatism44.45%54
LabourJacinda Ardern1916Social democracy36.89%46
NZ FirstWinston Peters1993Nationalism, populism7.20%9
GreenJames Shaw / Marama Davidson1990Green politics, social democracy6.27%8
ACTDavid Seymour1994Classical liberalism, right-libertarianism0.50%1
Advance NZJami-Lee Ross / Billy Te Kahika Jr2020Centrism, anti-corruption, conspiracism—1
OpportunitiesGeoff Simmons2016Radical centrism, environmentalism2.44%0
MāoriJohn Tamihere / Debbie Ngarewa-Packer2004Māori rights1.18%0
Legalise CannabisMaki Herbert / Michael Appleby1996Cannabis legalisation0.31%0
New ConservativeLeighton Baker2011Conservatism, right-wing populism0.24%0
ManaHone Harawira2011Tino rangatiratanga, Māori rights0.14%0
OutdoorsSue Grey / Alan Simmons2015Environmentalism0.06%0
Social CreditChris Leitch1953Social credit, economic democracy0.03%0
Heartland Mark Ball2020Agrarianism—0
ONE Edward Shanly / Stephanie Harawira2020Christian fundamentalist—0
Sustainable NZVernon Tava2019Environmentalism, centrism—0
TEA John Hong and Susanna Kruger2020Anti-racism, fiscal conservatism—0
Vision NZHannah Tamaki2019Christian nationalism—0

MPs not standing for re-election
Name Party Electorate/List Term in office Date announced Notes
David Carter National List 1994–present 17 October 2018[45]
Ruth Dyson Labour Port Hills 1993–present 3 March 2019[46]
Alastair Scott National Wairarapa 2014–present 25 June 2019[47]
Nathan Guy National Ōtaki 2005–present 30 July 2019[48]
Clare Curran Labour Dunedin South 2008–present 27 August 2019[49]
Maggie Barry National North Shore 2011–present 5 November 2019[50]
Gareth Hughes Green List 2010–present 17 November 2019[51]
Sarah Dowie National Invercargill 2014–present 11 February 2020[52] Initially re-selected as Invercargill candidate
Nicky Wagner National List 2005–present
Clayton Mitchell NZ First List 2014–present 5 June 2020[53]
Anne Tolley National East Coast 1999–2002
2005–present		 27 June 2020[54] Initially announced on 20 December 2019 as list-only with intention of becoming Speaker of the House[55]
Paula Bennett National Upper Harbour 2005–present 29 June 2020[56] Initially announced on 14 August 2019 as list-only[57]
Hamish Walker National Clutha-Southland 2017–present 8 July 2020 Was re-selected as candidate for the Southland electorate but resigned after leaking private information of COVID-19 patients.[58]
Jian Yang National List 2011–present 10 July 2020[59]
Nikki Kaye National Auckland Central 2008–present 16 July 2020[60] Was re-selected as candidate for the Auckland Central electorate but resigned following the resignation of Todd Muller, to who she was deputy.
Amy Adams National Selwyn 2008–present Announced intention to retire from politics at upcoming election on 25 June 2019,[61] and a new National candidate was subsequently selected for Selwyn.[62] After a leadership change in the National Party, she reversed her decision and announced she would stand again as a list-only candidate.[63] Adams announced her retirement again shortly after Todd Muller resigned as the party leader.
Andrew Falloon National Rangitata 2017–2020 20 July 2020 Initially re-selected as Rangitata candidate, but later announced he was stepping down after the election citing mental health issues.[64] Falloon was subsequently reported to have sent an unsolicited pornographic image to a young woman, and resigned effective immediately.[65]
Raymond Huo Labour List 2008–2014
2017–present		 21 July 2020 Initially re-selected as a list-only candidate (rank 26) but later announced he would not contest the election.[66]
Iain Lees-Galloway Labour Palmerston North 2008–present 22 July 2020 Initially re-selected as candidate for Palmerston North and ranked 13 on the Labour Party list, but later announced he would not contest the election after being removed as a Minister for having a consensual, but inappropriate relationship with a former staff member.[67]

MPs standing for re-election as List-only MPs
Name Party Electorate/List Term in office Date announced Notes
Kris Faafoi Labour Mana 2010–present 8 February 2020[68]
Paulo Garcia National List 2019–present 11 February 2020[69] Stood in the New Lynn electorate at the 2017 election
Julie Anne Genter Green List 2011–present 25 May 2020[70] Stood in the Mount Albert electorate at the 2017 election
Louisa Wall Labour Manurewa 2008
2011–present		 29 May 2020 Faced two challengers at the 30 May reselection as the Labour candidate in Manurewa, but withdrew to stand as a list-only candidate[71]

Campaigning

Expense limits and broadcasting allocations

During the regulated period prior to election day, parties and candidates have limits on how much they may spend on election campaigning. It is illegal in New Zealand to campaign on election day itself, or within 10 metres of an advance polling booth.[72]

The limits on electoral expenses are updated every year to reflect inflation. For the 2020 general election, every registered party contending the party vote is permitted to spend $1,169,000 plus $27,500 per electorate candidate on campaigning during the regulated period, excluding radio and television campaigning (broadcasting funding is allocated separately). For example, a registered party with candidates in all 72 electorates is permitted to spend $3,149,000 on campaigning for the party vote.[73] Electorate candidates are permitted to spend $27,500 each on campaigning for the electorate vote.[74]

Registered parties are allocated a separate broadcasting budget for radio and television campaigning. Only money from the broadcasting allocation can be used to purchase airtime; the actual production costs of advertisements can come from the general election expenses budget. The Electoral Commission sets the amount of broadcasting funds each party gets; generally the allocation is based on the number of seats in the current Parliament, previous election results, and support in opinion polls.

A joint statement was released on 9 June 2020 by the Social Credit Party, Māori Party, New Conservative Party, New Zealand Outdoors Party, and Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party in which they condemn the broadcasting allocations and call for reform.[75]

An initial broadcasting statement was released from the Electoral Commission on 29 May 2020, including parties that have not yet registered but intend to.[76]

PartyBroadcasting allocation
National$1,285,182
Labour$1,202,267
Green$310,931
NZ First$310,931
ACT$145,101
Māori$145,101
Opportunities$145,101
Advance NZ$62,186
Legalise Cannabis$62,186
New Conservative$62,186
Social Credit$51,821
Outdoors$51,821
Sustainable NZ$51,821
Vision NZ$51,821
Direct Democracy[lower-alpha 1]$41,457
Future Party[lower-alpha 1]$41,457
Internet[lower-alpha 1]$41,457
ONE$41,457
Oytcho-Visha[lower-alpha 1]$41,457
  1. Has not yet registered but intends to.

Third party promoters, such as trade unions and lobby groups, can campaign during the regulated period. The maximum expense limit for the 2019/20 fiscal year is $330,000 for those promoters registered with the Electoral Commission,[77] and $13,200 for unregistered promoters.[78] As of 20 July 2020, the following third-party promoters were registered for the general election (i.e. excluding those solely registered for one or both of the referendums).[79]

Party campaigns

After the announcement of 19 September as election date, parties started their campaigns.[80] Party campaigns throughout 2020 were heavily impacted by COVID-19, with parties unable to host events during alert levels 3 and 4.

National

The National Party initially chose Paula Bennett as its campaign manager. (All previous elections since 2005 had seen National with Steven Joyce as campaign manager.[80]) On 2 February 2020, Simon Bridges announced that National would not want to form a coalition with New Zealand First after the election should NZ First become kingmaker once again. Bridges stated: "I can't trust New Zealand First", adding that "A vote for NZ First is a vote for Labour and the Greens".[81] Bridges said that he would, however, be open to working with ACT.[82] NZ First leader Winston Peters criticised Bridges' decision, saying that "narrowing your options can be the worst strategic move you will ever make".[81]

Owing to the four-week lockdown in New Zealand from 23 March during the Covid-19 pandemic, National temporarily suspended their campaign on the same day.[83]

On 22 May 2020, following low poll results for National in the week prior, a National parliamentary caucus meeting replaced Simon Bridges and Paula Bennett with Todd Muller and Nikki Kaye as leader and deputy leader respectively. In his first speech as leader, Muller expressed his openness to working with Winston Peters and New Zealand First after the election.[84] In conjunction with a reshuffle of caucus responsibilities on 25 May, Muller announced that the party had replaced Bennett as campaign manager with Gerry Brownlee.[85]

On 14 July 2020 Muller resigned as National Party leader.[86] An emergency party caucus meeting replaced him later that night with Judith Collins, with Gerry Brownlee becoming the new deputy leader.[4]

After new cases of community transmission in Auckland were reported on 11 August, with the alert level being raised to level 3 in Auckland and level 2 elsewhere, National halted their campaigning.[31]

Labour

Megan Woods was chosen as campaign manager.[80] On 29 January 2020, Ardern announced the New Zealand Upgrade Programme, a NZ$12 billion infrastructure improvement package.[87] After new cases of community transmission in Auckland were reported on 11 August, with the alert level being raised to level 3 in Auckland and level 2 elsewhere, Labour halted their campaigning.[31]

NZ First

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters named the provincial growth fund in its current form as his first bottom line for any post-election coalition talks. Peters also outlined the party's immigration policy ahead of the election, saying: "The current immigration track must stop and only New Zealand First, with a stronger hand in 2020, can make this happen", and "a vote for New Zealand First will see the permanent residency qualification raised from two to five years". Peters also said the party wanted to lead a public discussion with voters about a "population policy", including defining acceptable population growth and the time for a migrant to obtain permanent residency.[88][89] At the campaign launch on 19 July 2020, Peters promised a cap of 15,000 highly skilled immigrants and recruiting 1,000 new police officers.[90] After new cases of community transmission in Auckland were reported on 11 August, with the alert level being raised to level 3 in Auckland and level 2 elsewhere, New Zealand First halted their campaigning.[31]

Green

On 28 June 2020, the Green Party released a Poverty Action Plan, which included a guaranteed minimum income of $325 a week. Green co-leader Marama Davidson stated that “Our Guaranteed Minimum Income is about fairness. It’s about ensuring those who have done well under our current system pay it forward and share that success with people who are struggling."[91][92] This was followed up by the launch of a Clean Energy Plan, to ensure a "just transition away from fossil fuels". The plan included a pledge to establish a Clean Energy Industry Training Plan and to end coal use in New Zealand by 2030.[93][94] The Green Party launched a 52-page "Think Ahead, Act Now" election platform on 25 July 2020. Green co-leader James Shaw described it as "a reference document that will guide our caucus and our ministers as we navigate the everyday choices that our Government will have to make."[95][96] After new cases of community transmission in Auckland were reported on 11 August, with the alert level being raised to level 3 in Auckland and level 2 elsewhere, the Green Party halted their campaigning.[31]

ACT

ACT launched their party campaign on 12 July 2020. ACT party leader David Seymour attacked the government's COVID-19 response as "clearly, demonstrably unsustainable", and called for the open pursuing of "having the world’s smartest border, not as a rhetorical device, but a practical reality." The party also unveiled a new employment insurance scheme, with 0.55% of income tax being paid to a ring-fenced insurance fund. If someone became unemployed, they would be able to 55% of their average weekly earnings over the year up to $60,000.[97][98] After new cases of community transmission in Auckland were reported on 11 August, with the alert level being raised to level 3 in Auckland and level 2 elsewhere, ACT cancelled its upcoming campaign events.[31]

Māori

The Māori Party launched their campaign on 20 June 2020 at the Hoani Waititi marae, with a flagship "Whānau First" policy, ensuring that a quarter of government spending over the next two years is spent on projects led by Māori and involving Māori-led businesses. Māori Party co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer was quoted as saying that "Māori must be guaranteed resources for Māori recovery, we cannot go backwards to how we were living pre-COVID – that is not an option for our whānau, too many of whom are struggling just to survive".[99][100] On 19 July 2020, the party released a climate change policy, involving an end to new offshore oil and gas permits, as well as withdrawing existing onshore and offshore permits with the goal of ending the oil and gas industry by 2030. The party would also ban new seabed mining permits and withdraw existing permits, as well as establish a $1 billion Pūngao Auaha for "Māori-owned community energy projects and solar panel and insulation instillations".[101][102]

Advance NZ

Advance NZ launched their campaign on 26 July 2020, merging with the New Zealand Public Party, a party described as "conspiracy theory-driven".[103] The Public Party is to keep their identity and structure, but with the exception of Billy Te Kahika in Te Tai Tokerau, who is running on the Public Party name, all candidates will run as Advance NZ candidates. Jami-Lee Ross, MP for Botany and Te Kahika are to become co-leaders of Advance NZ. Ross stated in regards to the merger that "By forming an alliance of parties, together with other small parties that believe in greater freedom and democracy, we stand a stronger chance of uniting together and crossing the 5 percent threshold in to Parliament," and branded Advance NZ "the new Alliance Party of the 2020s, but a centrist version of that model".[104] At the launch, Te Kahika promised an immediate repeal of the COVID-19 Public Health Response Act.[105] Ross also reportedly told the NZ Herald that the party was in talks with six smaller parties about joining Advance NZ.[106] On 6 August 2020, the party was registered with the Electoral Commission.[107]

Major debates

Television New Zealand (TVNZ) will host three television leaders' debates; two between the National and Labour leaders, and one minor party debate. The first National-Labour debate is to be moderated by John Campbell, with the minor party debate and second National–Labour debate to be hosted by Jessica Mutch McKay. A young voters debate will also be hosted by Jack Tame.[108] Newshub Nation is also reportedly hosting a "power brokers" debate, to include the Māori Party, with the inclusion threshold being having held a seat in Parliament over the past 2 parliamentary terms.[109]

TVNZ qualification criteria

The inclusion criteria set by TVNZ for its minor party debate was either having current representation in Parliament or winning 3% in a poll, which sparked controversy as those criteria excluded minor parties such as the Māori Party, The Opportunities Party and the New Conservative Party from the debate. Māori Party co-leader John Tamihere said TVNZ had a responsibility to "reflect Māori perspectives, as laid out in ministerial direction". Race Relations Commissioner Meng Foon endorsed the Māori Party position.[110][109][111]

Qualifying parties for the TVNZ minor party debate
(as of August 6)
Party Met polling criterion
(≥3% in any Colmar Brunton poll)		 Met parliamentary criterion
(Having seats in Parliament)		 Attending debate
Green Yes
(5% in July 2020 poll)		 Yes Yes
ACT Yes
(4.8% in July 2020 poll)		 Yes Yes
NZ First Yes
(3.3% in February 2020 poll)		 Yes Yes
New Conservative No
(1.2% in July 2020 poll)		 No No
Māori No
(1% in July 2020 poll)		 No No
ONE No
(0.2% in July 2020 poll)		 No No
Legalise Cannabis No
(0.2% in July 2020 poll)		 No No
Opportunities No
(0.1% in July 2020 poll)		 No No
Social Credit No
(0.1% in June 2020 poll)		 No No
Vision NZ No
(0.1% in May 2020 poll)		 No No
Outdoors No
(0.1% in May 2020 poll)		 No No
Heartland No No No
Mana No No No
Sustainable NZ No No No
TEA No No No

Table of debates
Date Time (NZST) Organiser(s) Subject Participants
NationalLabourNZ FirstGreenACTAdvance NZMāoriTOP
6 August 17:30–19:30 CID[112] Foreign affairs Present
Bridges		 Present
Parker		 Present
Tabuteau		 Present
Shaw		 Present
Seymour		 Not invited Not invited Not invited
TBA WasteMINZ[113] Waste and environment Invited
Simpson		 Invited
Parker		 Invited
Marcroft		 Invited
Sage		 Invited
Court		 Not invited Invited Invited
25 August From 19:00 TVNZ[108] Leaders' debate Invited
Collins		 Invited
Ardern		 Not invited Not invited Not invited Not invited Not invited Not invited
2 September TVNZ/University of Auckland[108] Young voters Invited
Brown		 Invited
TBC		 Invited
Griffith		 Invited
Swarbrick		 Invited
Van Velden		 Not invited Not invited Not invited
9 September From 19:00 TVNZ[108] Minor parties Not invited Not invited Invited Invited Invited Invited Not invited Not invited
17 September From 19:00 TVNZ[108] Leaders' debate Invited
Collins		 Invited
Ardern		 Not invited Not invited Not invited Not invited Not invited Not invited

Opinion polls
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Various organisations have commissioned opinion polling for the next general election. Two main polling organisations are currently regularly sampling the electorates' opinions: Reid Research (on behalf of MediaWorks New Zealand) and Colmar Brunton (on behalf of Television New Zealand). Roy Morgan Research released a series of polls in June 2020, covering the first five months of the year, and subsequently released further polls covering the months of June and July. These were their first opinion polls in New Zealand since November 2017.

Graphical summary of polls recently conducted for the 2020 New Zealand general election.

Seat projections

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Labour retains Waiariki, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. It is also assumed the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National, and that Botany will be returned to National. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[114] Newshub and 1 News produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

Party 2017 election result Radio NZ[115]
5 Jun 2018 poll of polls		 Stuff YouGov[116]
7–11 Nov 2019 poll		 Roy Morgan[117]
July 2020 poll		 Newshub Reid Research[118]
16–24 July 2020 poll		 1 News Colmar Brunton[119]
25–29 Jul 2020 poll
National565747343241
Labour465451687767
NZ First9010000
Green88101076
ACT112846
Seats in Parliament 120120120120120120
Possible government formation(s) National–NZ First (65) Labour coalition (62) Labour coalition (61) Labour (68) Labour (77) Labour (67)
Labour–Green–NZ First (63)
Note: Forecasted seats are currently calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

Results

Preliminary results will be gradually released after polling booths closed at 19:00 (NZDT) on 17 October. The preliminary count only includes advance ordinary and election day ordinary votes; it does not include any special votes. Special votes include votes from those who enrolled after the deadline of 13 September, those who voted outside their electorate (this includes all overseas votes), hospital votes, and those voters enrolled on the unpublished roll. There will not be an election night preliminary count for the two referendums.

All voting papers, counterfoils and electoral rolls are returned to the electorate's returning officer for a mandatory recount; this also includes approving and counting any special votes, and compiling a master roll to ensure no voter has voted more than once. To simplify processing and counting, overseas votes will be sent to and counted at the Electoral Commission's central processing centre in Wellington, rather than to electorate returning officers.[120] Official results, including all recounted ordinary votes and special votes, as well as the official results of the two referendums, are expected to be released by the Electoral Commission on Friday 6 November 2020.[121]

Parties and candidates have three working days after the release of the official results to apply for a judicial recount. These recounts take place under the auspices of a District Court judge (the Chief District Court Judge in case of a nationwide recount),[122] and may delay the return of the election writ by a few days.

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gollark: Really? I thought lisps were mostly untyped.
gollark: I also shortened the stringy names of things.

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