Waimakariri (New Zealand electorate)

Waimakariri is a New Zealand parliamentary electorate, formed for the 1996 election and returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand House of Representatives. The MP for Waimakariri is Matthew Doocey of the National Party. He has held this position since the 2014 election and takes over from Kate Wilkinson, who defeated Clayton Cosgrove (Labour) in the 2011 election.

Waimakariri electorate boundaries used since the 2014 election

Population areas

Waimakariri centres on metropolitan Christchurch and spreads northward up the coast of the South Island. From Christchurch it contains the suburbs of Casebrook and Belfast; from Waimakariri District to its north, it takes in the towns of Kaiapoi and Rangiora as well as a selection of small inland localities such as Cust and Oxford. Boundary changes following the 2006 census were relatively minor; Waimakariri managed to avoid the upheaval wrought upon electorates in Christchurch, losing Bishopdale to Ilam and the last remaining segment of Papanui to Christchurch Central.

Along with neighbouring Selwyn, Waimakariri has been experiencing strong population growth, with many people from Christchurch displaced by the earthquakes. In the 2013/14 boundary review by the Representation Commission, Waimakariri lost most of Redwood and Marshland to Christchurch Central and Christchurch East respectively, while it gained the less populated Harewood north of Sawyers Arms Road from Selwyn.[1]

History
The Waimakariri electorate from 2008

The existence of Waimakariri dates back to the introduction of MMP voting in the 1996 general election, when the number of South Island electorates fell from twenty-five to sixteen. The electorate originates in the old Rangiora electorate, with Hurunui District shorn off and placed in Kaikōura, and the resultant electorate pulled into Christchurch via State Highway 71, absorbing parts of Christchurch previously in the electorate of Christchurch North. The first contest saw Rangiora's Jim Gerard easily defeated by former Prime Minister and MP for Christchurch North, Mike Moore. He left the office in July 1999, having been elected Director-General of the World Trade Organization.

Clayton Cosgrove won the second contest in 1999 and was confirmed in 2002, 2005 and 2008.[2]

Given that Rangiora was a safe National electorate and Christchurch North a safe Labour electorate, and given the urban-rural makeup of the electorate, Waimakariri does not favour any party. At the 2005 election, while Waimakariri's electors were returning incumbent Clayton Cosgrove by 5,064 votes (and in the process slashing his majority in half), their party vote intentions were more ambiguous, with National winning 79 more party votes than Labour, setting Waimakariri up to be a key electorate at the 2008 election. Cosgrove retained the electorate with a much narrower 390 majority in 2008, whilst his opponent Kate Wilkinson's party (National) got over 5000 more party votes.

Results from the 2011 election gave Wilkinson a lead of 642 votes over Cosgrove, shifting the electorate from marginal Labour to marginal National.[3] Wilkinson retired at the end of the parliamentary term and was replaced as National's candidate for the 2014 election by Matthew Doocey, who had previously contested the 2013 by-election in Christchurch East.[4][5] Doocey beat Cosgrove with an increased majority.[6]

In the 2017 election, Doocey beat the Labour candidate, Dan Rosewarne, with an increased majority of that over Cosgrove although the National party vote decreased.[7]

Members of Parliament

Key   Labour     National     Alliance     NZ First  

Election Winner
1996 election Mike Moore
1999 election Clayton Cosgrove
2002 election
2005 election
2008 election
2011 election Kate Wilkinson
2014 election Matthew Doocey
2017 election

List MPs

Members of Parliament elected from party lists in elections where that person also unsuccessfully contested the Waimakariri electorate. Unless otherwise stated, all MPs terms began and ended at general elections.

Election Winner
1996 election Jim Gerard1
John Wright
1999 election Ron Mark
John Wright
2002 election Ron Mark
2005 election Ron Mark
Kate Wilkinson
2008 election Kate Wilkinson
2011 election Clayton Cosgrove
Richard Prosser
2014 election Clayton Cosgrove
Richard Prosser

1Jim Gerard retired in April 1997 to take appointment as High Commissioner to Canada

Election results

2017 election
2017 general election: Waimakariri[7]
Notes:

Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent.
A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party votes % ±%
National Y Matthew Doocey 22,657 57.60 +9.26 21,398 53.55 -3.78
Labour Dan Rosewarne 11,891 30.23 -11.09 12,888 32.25 +13.25
Green Nikki Berry 1,799 4.57 +0.35 1,645 4.12 -4.72
NZ First Richard Prosser 1,771 4.50 +1.63 2,653 6.64 -1.80
Opportunities Nicola Glenjarman 583 1.48 — 714 1.79 —
New Conservative Benjamin Price 265 0.67 -1.61 166 0.42 -3.89
Māori Aroha Reriti-Crofts 122 0.31 +0.05 85 0.21 -0.05
Independent Destiny Wiringi 99 0.25 —
ACT Stuart Hawkins 92 0.23 — 116 0.29 +0.07
Democrats Peter Adcock-White 55 0.14 -0.03 69 0.17 -0.02
Legalise Cannabis   97 0.24 -0.11
Ban 1080   35 0.09 -0.10
United Future   35 0.09 -0.10
Outdoors   33 0.08 —
People's Party   13 0.03 —
Internet   6 0.02 -0.37[lower-alpha 1]
Mana   5 0.01 -0.38[lower-alpha 2]
Informal votes 261 103
Total Valid votes 39,334 39,958
Turnout 40,012
National hold Majority 10,766 25.01 +17.99

2014 election
2014 general election: Waimakariri[6]
Notes:

Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent.
A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party votes % ±%
National Matthew Doocey 17,263 48.34 +1.06 20,734 57.33 +0.44
Labour Clayton Cosgrove 14,757 41.32 -4.16 6,835 18.90 -3.51
Green Reuben Hunt 1,506 4.22 +0.85 3,198 8.84 +0.37
NZ First Richard Prosser 1,024 2.87 +1.21 3,054 8.44 +3.52
New Conservative Benjamin Price 816 2.28 +0.07 1,560 4.31 +1.04
Māori Aroha Reriti-Crofts 92 0.26 +0.09 95 0.26 0.00
Democrats Peter Adcock-White 62 0.17 +0.17 69 0.19 +0.13
Internet Mana   141 0.39 +0.29
Legalise Cannabis   127 0.35 -0.08
ACT   80 0.22 -0.34
Ban 1080   69 0.19 +0.19
United Future   66 0.18 +0.18
Civilian   15 0.04 +0.04
Independent Coalition   6 0.02 +0.02
Focus   5 0.01 +0.01
Informal votes 192 114
Total Valid votes 35,712 36,168
National hold Majority 2,506 7.02 +5.21

2011 election
2011 general election: Waimakariri[3]
Notes:

Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent.
A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party votes % ±%
National Kate Wilkinson 16,787 47.28 +4.25 20,489 56.89 +7.45
Labour N Clayton Cosgrove 16,145 45.48 +1.39 8,431 23.41 -10.46
Green John Kelcher 1,197 3.37 -0.01 3,050 8.47 +3.04
New Conservative Tim de Vries 785 2.21 +2.21 1,177 3.27 +3.27
NZ First Richard Prosser 588 1.66 -1.46 2,131 5.92 +1.96
United Future   208 0.58 -0.33
ACT   195 0.54 -2.00
Legalise Cannabis   155 0.43 +0.10
Māori   93 0.26 -0.12
Mana   35 0.10 -0.12
Democrats   23 0.06 -0.02
Alliance   17 0.05 -0.06
Libertarianz   12 0.03 +0.01
Informal votes 490 297
Total Valid votes 35,502 36,016
National gain from Labour Majority 642 1.81 +2.86

Electorate (as at 26 November 2011): 47,387[8]

2008 election
2008 general election: Waimakariri[9]
Notes:

Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent.
A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party votes % ±%
Labour Y Clayton Cosgrove 16,360 44.09 12,702 33.87
National Kate Wilkinson 15,970 43.04 18,539 49.44
ACT Aaron Keown 1,717 4.63 953 2.54
Green Alan Liefting 1,253 3.38 2,036 5.43
NZ First Melanie Mark-Shadbolt 1,157 3.12 1,482 3.95
Kiwi Leighton Baker 536 1.44 397 1.06
United Future Kelleigh Sheffield-Cranstoun 114 0.31 342 0.91
Progressive   397 1.06
Bill and Ben   228 0.61
Māori   140 0.37
Legalise Cannabis   123 0.33
Family Party   61 0.16
Alliance   40 0.11
Democrats   33 0.09
Workers Party   9 0.02
Libertarianz   7 0.02
Pacific   5 0.01
RONZ   4 0.01
RAM   3 0.01
Informal votes 202 114
Total Valid votes 37,107 37,501
Labour hold Majority 390 1.05


2005 election
2005 general election: Waimakariri[10]
Notes:

Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent.
A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party votes % ±%
Labour Y Clayton Cosgrove 19,084 48.61 -3.72 16,484 41.48
National Kate Wilkinson 13,478 34.33 +13.38 16,565 41.68
NZ First Ron Mark 4,247 10.82 -5.90 2,453 6.17
Green Alan Liefting 833 2.12 1,527 3.84
United Future John Pickering 651 1.66 1,295 3.26
Progressive John Wright 458 1.66 609 1.53
Legalise Cannabis Michael Britnell 289 0.74 125 0.31
ACT Rebekah Holdaway 196 0.50 362 0.91
Direct Democracy Jason Orme 23 0.06 5 0.01
Destiny   115 0.29
Māori   62 0.16
Christian Heritage   49 0.12
Democrats   32 0.08
Alliance   21 0.05
Libertarianz   12 0.03
Family Rights   8 0.02
One NZ   8 0.02
99 MP   7 0.02
RONZ   5 0.01
Informal votes 277 116
Total Valid votes 39,258 39,744
Labour hold Majority 5,606 14.28 -17.10

1999 election

Refer to Candidates in the New Zealand general election 1999 by electorate#Waimakariri for a list of candidates.

Table footnotes
  1. 2017 Internet Party swing is relative to the votes for Internet-Mana in 2014; it shared a party list with Mana Party in the 2014 election
  2. 2017 Mana Party swing is relative to the votes for Internet-Mana in 2014; it shared a party list with the Internet Party in the 2014 election
gollark: "I think therefore I think I am"
gollark: There's a world where a person called Adolf Hitler helped cure cancer, perhaps? Makes more sense.
gollark: My personal view is that the universe is either deterministic or nondeterministic (but probably not in a way centered around intelligence like the eldræverse is), and that some loosely defined "free will" doesn't matter much anyway.
gollark: Free will is too poorly defined to really consider in much detail.
gollark: Cogito ergo cogito sum, to horribly mangle a phrase.

References
  1. Report of the Representation Commission 2014 (PDF). Representation Commission. 4 April 2014. p. 10. ISBN 978-0-477-10414-2. Retrieved 26 September 2014.
  2. "Hon Clayton Cosgrove". New Zealand Parliament. Retrieved 21 November 2011.
  3. "Official Count Results – Waimakariri". Electoral Commission. 10 December 2011. Retrieved 27 September 2014.
  4. Conway, Glenn (8 November 2013). "Wilkinson to fall on her sword". The Press. p. A7.
  5. Conway, Glenn (8 November 2013). "Canterbury MP Kate Wilkinson quits". The Press. Retrieved 9 November 2013.
  6. "Official Count Results – Waimakariri". Electoral Commission. 21 September 2014. Retrieved 27 September 2014.
  7. "Official Count Results – Waimakariri (2017)". Electoral Commission. 7 October 2017. Retrieved 25 October 2017.
  8. "Enrolment statistics". Electoral Commission. 26 November 2011. Retrieved 27 November 2011.
  9. 2008 election results
  10. 2005 election results
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