2016 United States presidential election in Oregon

The 2016 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Oregon
November 8, 2016
Turnout70.26% (eligible voters) [1][2]
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,002,106 782,403
Percentage 50.07% 39.09%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county with size showing number of votes
Treemap of the popular vote by county
Elections in Oregon

On May 17, 2016, in the presidential primaries, voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican and Constitution parties' respective nominees for president (the Green primary was on May 21 and the Libertarian primary was on May 27, with the Independent primary on July 18).[3] The Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated were unable to vote.

The Democratic candidate has won Oregon in every election since 1988. Hillary Clinton continued the Democratic tradition in Oregon, carrying the state with 50% of the vote, a slightly reduced margin from President Obama in 2012, but with a slightly higher raw vote total, becoming only the second presidential candidate to win more than a million votes. Donald Trump received 39% of the vote, meaning he had received a smaller proportion of the vote than Mitt Romney had in 2012 not only in Oregon, but in all four of the neighbouring states (Nevada, Idaho, Washington and California). However, he did achieve a notable feat in carrying Columbia County, becoming the first Republican to do so since Herbert Hoover in 1928.[4] In addition, this was also the first presidential election since 1976 when Clackamas County backed the losing candidate.

Background
Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with former Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[5][6] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[7] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40% and 50% for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[8][9] Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[10]

Following his second term, President Obama was not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[11] With their terms expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate is asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Political landscape in Oregon
Main article: Political party strength in Oregon

Besides Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, the Republican party's candidate won Oregon in every year from 1948 through 1984. Since then, however, the Democratic candidate has carried the state in every election, including a narrow victory in the 2000 election. The last statewide election won by a Republican candidate was in the 2002 Senate election, all statewide elected officials as of election day were Democrats, and Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 12.09% in the 2012 election.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

2016 Oregon Democratic primary
May 17, 2016 (2016-05-17)
 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 36 25
Popular vote 360,829 269,846
Percentage 56.24% 42.06%
Oregon results by county
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

The 74 delegates from Oregon were allocated in this way. 41 delegates were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district with district 2 split (district 2 was split because of its size with district 2a including the northern part of the district and 2b containing the southern part of the district). Another 20 delegates were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. The state also had 13 super delegates. [12]

Oregon Democratic primary, May 17, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 360,829 56.24% 36 3 39
Hillary Clinton 269,846 42.06% 25 7 32
Misc. 10,920 1.70% 0 0 0
(available) N/A 0 3 3
Total 641,595 100% 61 13 74
Source: The Green Papers, Oregon Secretary of State - Official Election Results

Republican primary

Six candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Oregon Republican primary, 2016
May 17, 2016 (2016-05-17)
 
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich
Home state New York Texas Ohio
Delegate count 18 5 5
Popular vote 252,748 65,513 62,248
Percentage 64.16% 16.63% 15.80%
Oregon results by county
  Donald Trump
(Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)

The 28 delegates from Oregon were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote.[13]

Oregon Republican primary, May 17, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 252,748 64.16% 18 0 18
Ted Cruz (withdrawn) 65,513 16.63% 5 0 5
John Kasich (withdrawn) 62,248 15.80% 5 0 5
Write-in 13,411 3.40% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 393,920 100.00% 28 0 28
Source: The Green Papers

Green primary

This state's Green Party held its presidential preference vote on May 21.

On May 22, it was announced that Jill Stein had won the preference vote.[14]

Oregon Green Party presidential convention, April 17, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein - - 6
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry - - 1
Uncommitted - - 1
Total - - 8

Libertarian primary

The Oregon primary was completed on May 27, 2016, the last day to receive mail-in ballots.

Oregon Libertarian presidential primary, May 27, 2016[15][16]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Gary Johnson 422 57%
John McAfee 105 14%
Merry Susan Nehls 34 5%
Austin Petersen (write-in) 25 3%
Darryl Perry 21 3%
Keenan Dunham 18 2%
Derrick Michael Reid 10 1%
Rhett Smith 6 1%
NOTA (write-in) 2 0%
Other write-ins 91 12%
Total 742 100%

Independent Party of Oregon primary

The Independent Party held a primary election on July 18. The party's ballot included Bernie Sanders (D), Hillary Clinton (D), Donald Trump (R), Ted Cruz (R), John Kasich (R), Gary Johnson (L), Jill Stein (G) and a "none of these candidates" choice.[17] Bernie Sanders won the primary election with 31.5% of the vote, narrowly defeating Donald Trump's 30.08%. Hillary Clinton came in third, with 24.02% of the vote.[18]

General election

Polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Oregon

Results
Presidential general election, November 8, 2016[19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 1,002,106 50.07%
Republican Donald Trump 782,403 39.09%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 94,231 4.71%
Pacific Green Jill Stein 50,002 2.50%
write-ins 72,594 3.63%
Total votes 2,001,336 100.00%

Hillary Clinton carried the state, lengthening the Democratic streak in Oregon to 8 straight contests.

Results by county
County Clinton% Trump% Johnson% Stein% Others%
Baker 1,797 20.47% 6,218 70.83% 413 4.70% 134 1.53% 217 2.47%
Benton 29,193 59.88% 13,445 27.58% 2,692 5.52% 1,595 3.27% 1,828 3.75%
Clackamas 102,095 47.70% 88,392 41.30% 11,053 5.16% 4,001 1.87% 8,498 3.97%
Clatsop 9,252 47.05% 8,138 41.39% 973 4.95% 569 2.89% 732 3.72%
Columbia 10,167 38.20% 13,217 49.65% 1,646 6.18% 572 2.15% 1,016 3.82%
Coos 10,448 33.37% 17,865 57.05% 1,411 4.51% 755 2.41% 834 2.66%
Crook 2,637 21.66% 8,511 69.92% 518 4.26% 157 1.29% 349 2.87%
Curry 4,300 34.10% 7,212 57.19% 498 3.95% 273 2.16% 328 2.60%
Deschutes 42,444 43.07% 45,692 46.36% 5,158 5.23% 1,998 2.03% 3,265 3.31%
Douglas 14,096 26.34% 34,582 64.61% 2,413 4.51% 1,021 1.91% 1,409 2.63%
Gilliam 239 23.45% 671 65.85% 79 7.75% 7 0.69% 23 2.26%
Grant 739 17.03% 3,210 73.96% 209 4.82% 48 1.11% 134 3.09%
Harney 683 17.19% 2,912 73.28% 222 5.59% 42 1.06% 115 2.89%
Hood River 6,510 59.67% 3,272 29.99% 511 4.68% 300 2.75% 317 2.91%
Jackson 44,447 40.66% 53,870 49.27% 4,373 4.00% 2,996 2.74% 3,641 3.33%
Jefferson 2,980 31.50% 5,483 57.97% 493 5.21% 182 1.92% 321 3.33%
Josephine 13,453 30.19% 26,923 60.42% 1,829 4.10% 1,057 2.37% 1,298 2.91%
Klamath 7,210 23.63% 20,435 66.98% 1,525 5.00% 508 1.67% 829 2.72%
Lake 639 16.26% 3,022 76.90% 151 3.84% 42 1.07% 76 1.93%
Lane 102,753 53.53% 67,141 34.98% 8,476 4.42% 6,302 3.28% 7,278 3.79%
Lincoln 12,501 49.50% 10,039 39.75% 1,130 4.47% 748 2.96% 838 3.32%
Linn 17,995 30.65% 33,488 57.03% 3,431 5.84% 1,339 2.28% 2,466 4.20%
Malheur 2,246 21.52% 7,194 68.94% 427 4.09% 177 1.70% 391 3.75%
Marion 57,788 42.23% 63,377 46.31% 7,058 5.16% 2,868 2.10% 5,749 4.20%
Morrow 1,017 24.41% 2,721 65.30% 238 5.71% 52 1.25% 139 3.34%
Multnomah 292,561 73.30% 67,954 17.03% 12,862 3.22% 12,969 3.25% 12,757 3.20%
Polk 16,420 40.75% 18,940 47.00% 2,254 5.59% 907 2.25% 1,774 4.40%
Sherman 202 19.86% 732 71.98% 44 4.33% 11 1.08% 28 2.75%
Tillamook 5,768 41.79% 6,538 47.37% 760 5.51% 333 2.41% 404 2.93%
Umatilla 7,673 27.80% 17,059 61.81% 1,457 5.28% 489 1.77% 919 3.33%
Union 3,249 25.05% 8,431 65.01% 673 5.19% 198 1.53% 417 3.22%
Wallowa 1,116 25.56% 2,848 65.23% 179 4.10% 82 1.88% 141 3.23%
Wasco 4,781 39.96% 5,833 48.75% 689 5.76% 239 2.00% 422 3.53%
Washington 153,251 56.92% 83,197 30.90% 15,266 5.67% 6,005 2.23% 11,513 4.28%
Wheeler 155 18.95% 591 72.25% 46 5.62% 10 1.22% 16 1.96%
Yamhill 19,301 39.59% 23,250 47.69% 3,074 6.31% 1,016 2.08% 2,112 4.33%

By congressional district

Clinton won 4 of 5 congressional districts.[20]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 33% 55% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 55% 35% Greg Walden
3rd 22% 68% Earl Blumenauer
4th 46% 46.1% Peter DeFazio
5th 42% 46% Kurt Schrader

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican
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See also

References
  1. Oregon State Elections Division (2016). "[PARTICIPATION] STATISTICAL SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 8, 2016, GENERAL ELECTION". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  2. Betsy Hammond (December 12, 2016). "Oregon voters shattered previous participation rates in November 2016". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  3. "*** 2016 ELECTION NOTICE *** | Independent Party of Oregon". www.indparty.com. Archived from the original on 2016-06-30. Retrieved 2016-06-18.
  4. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  5. "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  6. "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  7. "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  8. "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  9. Byrnes, Jesse (2016-06-15). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  10. Cohn, Nate (2015-01-19). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  11. "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  12. "Oregon Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2017-02-25.
  13. "Oregon Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2017-02-25.
  14. "Stein wins six Oregon delegates, Moyowasifza-Curry one – Green Party Watch". Retrieved 2016-06-18.
  15. "2016 Election Rules". The Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on 27 March 2016. Retrieved 19 March 2016.
  16. "Oregon Libertarian Primary Raw Results". Independent Political Report. Retrieved 8 June 2016.
  17. "Independent Party of Oregon". Retrieved 23 July 2016.
  18. "2016 IPO PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT & MEMBER SURVEY RESULTS (UNOFFICIAL)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 August 2016. Retrieved 31 July 2016.
  19. "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  20. https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index
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