Iowa State Fair Straw Poll

The Iowa State Fair Straw Poll[lower-alpha 1] is an informal poll for presidential and Iowa congressional candidates. The poll has been conducted by the Iowa Secretary of State with results posted to their website.[1][2] It was begun in 2015 after the Republican Party of Iowa announced it would no longer hold its official Iowa Straw Poll given that a majority of presidential candidates declined to participate.[3]

For earlier polls, see Iowa Straw Poll (1979–2011).

2015 Results

In 2015, the State Fair poll found Donald Trump to be the most favored GOP candidate among 677 votes cast, defeating Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas). Cruz went on to win the Iowa GOP caucuses, defeating Trump by 4 percent. On the Democratic side, out of a little more than 1,000 votes total, Hillary Clinton was the most popular Democrat defeating Bernie Sanders 49 percent to 45 percent.[4] Clinton went on to defeat Sanders in the Democratic state primary by less than 1 percent.[5]

Democratic

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[6]


Place Candidate Votes Percentage
1 Hillary Clinton 1,338 49.19%
2 Bernie Sanders 1,217 44.17%
3 Martin O'Malley 127 4.67%
4 Lincoln Chafee 20 0.74%
5 Jim Webb 18 0.66%

Republican

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[7]

Place Candidate Votes Percentage
1 Donald Trump 1,830 29.91%
2 Ben Carson 1,185 19.37%
3 Ted Cruz 543 8.88%
4 Carly Fiorina 459 7.50%
5 Marco Rubio 370 6.05%
6 Scott Walker 324 5.30%
7 Jeb Bush 312 5.10%
8 Bobby Jindal 225 3.68%
9 Mike Huckabee 188 3.07%
10 Rand Paul 182 2.97%
11 John Kasich 160 2.62%
12 Rick Perry 137 2.24%
13 Chris Christie 66 1.08%
14 Rick Santorum 65 1.06%
15 Lindsey Graham 39 0.64%
16 George Pataki 24 0.39%
17 Mark Everson 8 0.13%
18 Jim Gilmore 1 0.02%

2019 Results

In 2019, the State Fair saw a record-setting attendance of just under 1.2 million people over the course of its 11-day run. The Straw Poll result was published on August 19, 2019. On the Republican side, in total 1,976 votes were cast for 2 candidates. On the Democratic side, there were 24 candidates listed in the presidential poll and 2,118 votes cast.[2] Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate said, this Straw Poll has historically been a "pretty good" indicator for the outcome of "the race", despite it being only the second time the straw poll had been conducted.[8]

Place Candidate Votes Percentage
1 Joe Biden 374 17.7%
2 Elizabeth Warren 364 17.2%
3 Pete Buttigieg 292 13.8%
4 Bernie Sanders 215 10.2%
5 Kamala Harris 178 8.4%
6 Cory Booker 129 6.1%
7 Tulsi Gabbard 101 4.8%
8 Amy Klobuchar 73 3.5%
9 Tom Steyer 60 2.8%
10 Andrew Yang 58 2.7%
11 Beto O'Rourke 46 2.2%
12 Marianne Williamson 33 1.6%
13 Steve Bullock 33 1.6%
14 Julian Castro 32 1.5%
15 John Delaney 26 1.2%
16 Kirsten Gillibrand 22 1.0%
17 Michael Bennet 19 0.9%
18 Bill De Blasio 18 0.9%
19 John Hickenlooper 14 0.7%
20 Jay Inslee 11 0.5%
21 Tim Ryan 7 0.3%
22 Seth Moulton 5 0.2%
23 Joe Sestak 4 0.2%
24 Wayne Messam 4 0.2%

Notes
  1. Also referred to as the Iowa Straw Poll, though that more properly is the name for the poll conducted from 1979–2011 by the Iowa State Republican Party.
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References
  1. "On the Stump: The Polls are coming! The Polls are coming!". Toledo Chronicle, Tama News-Herald. August 15, 2015. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  2. Pate, Paul (August 19, 2019). "2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 20, 2019.
  3. "It's over: the end of the Iowa Straw Poll". NBC News. June 12, 2015. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  4. Richardson, Bradford (August 17, 2015). "Iowa State Fair attendees pick Sanders over Clinton". www.thehill.com. The Hill. Retrieved 2015-08-20.
  5. "Election 2016 - Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved March 28, 2016.
  6. "State Fair Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved October 22, 2019.
  7. "State Fair Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved October 22, 2019.
  8. "2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll results". Siouxland News. August 19, 2019.
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