Economy of Norway

The economy of Norway is a developed mixed economy with state-ownership in strategic areas. Although sensitive to global business cycles, the economy of Norway has shown robust growth since the start of the industrial era. The country has a very high standard of living compared with other European countries, and a strongly integrated welfare system. Norway's modern manufacturing and welfare system rely on a financial reserve produced by exploitation of natural resources, particularly North Sea oil.[18][19][20][21][22] According to United Nations data for 2016, Norway together with Luxembourg (a small state) and Switzerland are the only three countries in the world with a GDP per capita above US$70,000 that are neither island nations nor microstates.[23]

Economy of Norway
CurrencyNorwegian krone (NOK, kr)
Calendar year
Trade organisations
OECD, WTO, EEA and others
Country group
Statistics
Population 5,367,580 (1 January 2020)[3]
GDP
  • $417.627 billion (nominal; 2019 est.)[4]
  • $407.412 billion (PPP; 2019 est.)[5]
GDP rank
GDP growth
  • 1.3% (2018) 1.2% (2019e)
  • −6.3% (2020e) 2.9% (2021e)[5]
GDP per capita
  • $77,975 (nominal; 2019 est.)[4]
  • $76,684 (PPP; 2019 est.)[4]
GDP per capita rank
GDP by sector
2.4% (2020 est.)[5]
Population below poverty line
  • NA[6]
  • 16.2% at risk of poverty or social exclusion (2018)[7]
24.8 low (2018)[8]
Labour force
  • 2.8 million (Q1, 2019)[11]
  • 67.2% employment rate (Q1, 2019)[11]
Labour force by occupation
Unemployment
  • 4.1% (April 2020)[12]
  • 10.3% youth unemployment (Q4-2019)[13]
Average gross salary
NOK 45,600 / €4,713 / $5,367 monthly (2018)
Average net salary
NOK 33,400 / €3,452 / $3,931 monthly (2018)
Main industries
9th (very easy, 2020)[14]
External
Exports $102.8 billion (2017 est.)[6]
Export goods
petroleum and petroleum products, machinery and equipment, metals, chemicals, ships, fish
Main export partners
Imports $95.06 billion (2017 est.)[6]
Import goods
machinery and equipment, chemicals, metals, foodstuffs
Main import partners
FDI stock
  • $236.5 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[6]
  • Abroad: $196.3 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[6]
$22.01 billion (2017 est.)[6]
  • $642.3 billion (31 March 2016 est.)[6]
  • Norway is a net external creditor
Public finances
36.5% of GDP (2017 est.)[6][note 1]
+4.4% (of GDP) (2017 est.)[6]
Revenues217.1 billion (2017 est.)[6]
Expenses199.5 billion (2017 est.)[6]
Economic aid$4.0 billion (donor), 1.1% of GDP (2017)
  • Standard & Poor's:[15]
    AAA (Domestic)
    AAA (Foreign)
    AAA (T&C Assessment)
    Outlook: Stable[16]
  • Moody's:[16]
    Aaa
    Outlook: Stable
  • Fitch:[16]
    AAA
    Outlook: Stable
  • Scope:[17]
    AAA
    Outlook: Stable
Foreign reserves
 $65.92 billion (31 December 2017 est.)[6]
Main data source: CIA World Fact Book
All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.
Norway's GDP, 1979 to 2004. Source: Statistics Norway.

History

Pre-industrial revolution

Prior to the industrial revolution, Norway's economy was largely based on agriculture, timber, and fishing. Norwegians typically lived under conditions of considerable scarcity, though famine was rare. Except for certain fertile areas in Hedemarken and Østfold, crops were limited to hardy grains, such as oats, rye, and barley; and livestock to sheep, goats, cattle, pigs, and some poultry; in places this was complemented with hunting. In areas of Central and Northern Norway, the Sami subsisted on the nomadic herding of reindeer. Fishing all around the coast was dangerous work, though fish such as herring, cod, halibut, and other cold-water species were found in abundance. The introduction of the potato to Norway (in the 18th century) provided considerable relief for Norwegians.

All around the coast, the harvesting of fish (including cod, herring, halibut, and other cold water species) was an important supplement to farming and was in many areas in the north and west the primary household subsistence. Fishing was typically supplemented with crop-growing and the raising of livestock on small farms.

The economic conditions in Norway did not lend themselves to the formation of feudal system, though several kings did reward land to loyal subjects who became knights. Self-owning farmers were—and continue to be—the main unit of work in Norwegian agriculture, but leading up to the 19th century farmers ran out of land available for farming. Many agricultural families were reduced to poverty as tenant farmers, and served as the impetus for emigration to North America.

Industrial revolution
Capital formation 1865–2003 Source: Statistics Norway

Aside from mining in Kongsberg, Røros and Løkken, industrialization came with the first textile mills that were built in Norway in the middle of the 19th century. But the first large industrial enterprises came into formation when entrepreneurs' politics led to the founding of banks to serve those needs.

Industries also offered employment for a large number of individuals who were displaced from the agricultural sector. As wages from industry exceeded those from agriculture, the shift started a long-term trend of reduction in cultivated land and rural population patterns. The working class became a distinct phenomenon in Norway, with its own neighborhoods, culture, and politics.

Social democratic reforms

After World War II, the Norwegian Labour Party, with Einar Gerhardsen as prime minister, embarked on a number of social democratic reforms aimed at flattening the income distribution, eliminating poverty, ensuring social services such as retirement, medical care, and disability benefits to all, and putting more of the capital into the public trust.

Highly progressive income taxes, the introduction of value-added tax, and a wide variety of special surcharges and taxes made Norway one of the most heavily taxed economies in the world. Authorities particularly taxed discretionary spending, levying special taxes on automobiles, tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, etc.

Norway's long-term social democratic policies, extensive governmental tracking of information, and the homogeneity of its population lent themselves particularly well for economic study, and academic research from Norway proved to make significant contributions to the field of macroeconomics during this era. When Norway became a petroleum-exporting country, the economic effects came under further study.

Petroleum and post-industrialism

Oil-exporting country
Main article: Energy in Norway
Oil production, Norwegian sector; Source: Statistics Norway

In May 1963, Norway asserted sovereign rights over natural resources in its sector of the North Sea. Exploration started on 19 July 1966, when Ocean Traveler drilled its first well. Oil was first encountered at the Balder oil field at flank of the Utsira High, about 190 km west of Stavanger, in 1967.[24] Initial exploration was fruitless, until Ocean Viking found oil on 21 August 1969. By the end of 1969, it was clear that there were large oil and gas reserves in the North Sea. The first oil field was Ekofisk, produced 427,442 barrels (67,957.8 m3) of crude in 1980. Since then, large natural gas reserves have also been discovered.

Against the backdrop of the Norwegian referendum to not join the European Union, the Norwegian Ministry of Industry, headed by Ola Skjåk Bræk moved quickly to establish a national energy policy. Norway decided to stay out of OPEC, keep its own energy prices in line with world markets, and spend the revenue – known as the "currency gift" – wisely. The Norwegian government established its own oil company, Statoil, and awarded drilling and production rights to Norsk Hydro and the newly formed Saga Petroleum. Petroleum exports are taxed at a marginal rate of 78% (standard corporate tax of 24%, and a special petroleum tax of 54%).[25]

The North Sea turned out to present many technological challenges for production and exploration, and Norwegian companies invested in building capabilities to meet these challenges. A number of engineering and construction companies emerged from the remnants of the largely lost shipbuilding industry, creating centers of competence in Stavanger and the western suburbs of Oslo. Stavanger also became the land-based staging area for the offshore drilling industry. Presently North Sea is past its peak oil production. New oil and gas fields have been found and developed in the large Norwegian areas of the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, including Snøhvit.

Reservations about European Union
Exports and imports in Norway

In September 1972, the Norwegian parliament put to a referendum the question whether Norway should join the European Economic Community. The proposal was turned down with a slim margin. The Norwegian government proceeded to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU that would give Norwegian companies access to European markets. Over time, Norway renegotiated and refined this agreement, ultimately joining the European Free Trade Association and the European Economic Area.

Although Norway's trade policies have long aimed at harmonizing its industrial and trade policy with the EU's, a new referendum in 1994 gave the same result as in 1972, and Norway remains one of only two Nordic countries outside the EU, the other being Iceland.

Although much of the highly divisive public debate about EU membership turned on political rather than economic issues, it formed economic policy in several important ways:

  • Both politicians and the public came to terms with the fact that Norway's economic development was dependent on taking advantage of its comparative advantage by specializing in certain areas for export and relying on import for everything else. This has had a significant effect on Norway's agricultural policy, which has been reshaped to address population patterns rather than self-sufficiency.
  • The proceeds from oil revenue could not fuel private or public consumption if Norway were to sustain its prosperity when oil reserves run out.
  • In order to participate in European markets, Norway has had to open its domestic markets to European imports. Although some pricing and distribution issues (e.g., alcohol and automobiles) remain unresolved, Norway's consumer, capital, and employment markets are increasingly approaching those of Europe in general.

Norwegians have sought accommodations on a range of specific issues, such as products from fish farms, agricultural products, emission standards, etc., but these do not appear to differ substantially from those sought by bona fide EU members. It is expected that the issue of membership will be brought to a referendum again at some point.

Post-industrial economic developments
GDP growth 1865–2004
The Labour productivity level of Norway is second highest in Europe. OECD, 2015[26]

Several issues have dominated the debate on Norway's economy since the 1970s:

  • Cost of living. Norway is among the most expensive countries in the world, as reflected in the Big Mac Index and other indices. Historically, transportation costs and barriers to free trade had caused the disparity, but in recent years, Norwegian policy in labor relations, taxation, and other areas have contributed significantly.
  • Competitiveness of "mainland" industries. The high cost of labor and other structural features of the Norwegian environment have caused concern about Norway's ability to maintain its cost of living in a post-petroleum era. There is a clear trend toward ending the practice of "protecting" certain industries (vernede industrier) and making more of them "exposed to competition" (konkurranseutsettelse). In addition to interest in information technology, a number of small- to medium-sized companies have been formed to develop and market highly specialized technology solutions.
  • The role of the public sector. The ideological divide between socialist and non-socialist views on public ownership has decreased over time. The Norwegian government has sought to reduce its ownership over companies that require access to private capital markets, and there is an increasing emphasis on government facilitating entrepreneurship rather than controlling (or restricting) capital formation. A residual distrust of the "profit motive" persists, and Norwegian companies are heavily regulated, especially with respect to labor relations.
  • The future of the welfare state. Since World War II, successive Norwegian governments have sought to broaden and extend public benefits to its citizens, in the form of sickness and disability benefits, minimum guaranteed pensions, heavily subsidized or free universal health care, unemployment insurance, and so on. Public policy still favors the provision of such benefits, but there is increasing debate on making them more equitable and needs-based.
  • Urbanization. For several decades, agricultural policy in Norway was based on the premise of minimal self-sufficiency. In later years, this has given way to a greater emphasis on maintaining population patterns outside of major urban areas. The term "district policy" (distriktspolitikk) has come to mean the demand that old and largely rural Norway is allowed to persist, ideally by providing them with a sustainable economic basis.
  • Taxation.
    Main article: Taxation in Norway
    The primary purpose of the Norwegian tax system has been to raise revenue for public expenditures; but it is also viewed as a means to achieve social objectives, such as redistribution of income, reduction in alcohol and tobacco consumption, and as a disincentive against certain behaviors. Three elements of the tax system seem to attract the most debate:
    • Progressive taxation. At one time one of the most aggressive in the world, the top marginal tax rate on income has been decreased over time. In addition, Norwegians are taxed for their stated net worth, which some have argued discourages savings.
    • Value-added tax. The largest source of government revenue. The current standard rate is 25%, food and drink is 15%, and movie theater tickets and public transportation 8%.
    • Special surcharges and taxes. The government has established a number of taxes related to specific purchases, including cars, alcohol, tobacco, and various kinds of benefits.
    • Svalbard. People living on Svalbard (Spitsbergen) pay reduced taxes due to "Svalbardtraktaten".
  • Environmental concerns. A number of political issues have had their origins in ecological concerns, including the refineries at Mongstad and the hydroelectric power plant at Alta.
Norway's exports Product Tree Map (2017)[27]
Norwegian exports in 2006

State ownership role
Public vs. private consumption Source: Statistics Norway

The Norwegian state maintains large ownership positions in key industrial sectors concentrated in natural resources and strategic industries such as the strategic petroleum sector (Equinor), hydroelectric energy production (Statkraft), aluminum production (Norsk Hydro), the largest Norwegian bank (DNB) and telecommunication provider (Telenor). The government controls around 35% of the total value of publicly listed companies on the Oslo stock exchange, with five of its largest seven listed firms partially owned by the state.[28] When non-listed companies are included the state has an even higher share in ownership (mainly from direct oil license ownership). Norway's state-owned enterprises comprise 9.6% of all non-agricultural employment, a number that rises to almost 13% when companies with minority state ownership stakes are included, the highest among OECD countries.[29] Both listed and non-listed firms with state ownership stakes are market-driven and operate in a highly liberalized market economy. The combination of relatively high degrees of state ownership in the Norwegian open-market economy has been described as a form of state capitalism.[30]

The oil and gas industries play a dominant role in the Norwegian economy, providing a source of finance for the Norwegian welfare state through direct ownership of oil fields, dividends from its shares in Equinor, and licensure fees and taxes. The oil and gas industry is Norway's largest in terms of government revenue and value-added. The organization of this sector is designed to ensure the exploration, development and extraction of petroleum resources result in public value creation for the entire society through a mixture of taxation, licensing and direct state ownership through a system called the State’s Direct Financial Interest (SDFI). The SDFI was established in 1985 and represents state-owned holdings in a number of oil and gas fields, pipelines and onshore facilities as well as 67% of the shares in Equinor. Government revenues from the petroleum industry are transferred to the Government Pension Fund of Norway Global in a structure that forbids the government from accessing the fund for public spending; only income generated by the funds' capital can be used for government spending.[31]

The high levels of state ownership have been motivated for a variety of reasons, but most importantly by a desire for national control of the utilization of natural resources. Direct state involvement began prior to the 20th century with the provision of public infrastructure, and expanded greatly into industry and commercial enterprises after the Second World War through the acquisition of German assets in several manufacturing companies. The largest expansion of state ownership occurred with the establishment of Statoil in 1972. Industries and commercial enterprises where the state owns stakes are highly liberalized and market-driven, with marketization extending to public service providers as well as industry.[32]

Data

The following table shows the main economic indicators in 1980–2017. Inflation under 2% is in green.[33]

Year GDP
(in Bil. US$ PPP)		 GDP per capita
(in US$ PPP)		 GDP growth
(real)		 Inflation rate
(in Percent)		 Unemployment
(in Percent)		 Government debt
(in % of GDP)
1980 61.3 14,968 4.5 % 10.9 % 1.7 % 46.7 %
1981 68.0 16,568 1.6 % 13.6 % 2.0 % 42.5 %
1982 72.4 17,571 0.2 % 11.3 % 2.6 % 37.7 %
1983 78.3 18,936 4.0 % 8.5 % 3.4 % 34.7 %
1984 86.0 20,737 6.1 % 6.2 % 3.1 % 34.5 %
1985 93.7 22,517 5.6 % 5.7 % 2.6 % 36.2 %
1986 99.4 23,814 4.0 % 7.2 % 2.0 % 45.1 %
1987 103.7 24,707 1.8 % 8.7 % 2.1 % 37.7 %
1988 107.1 25,370 −0.3 % 6.7 % 3.1 % 31.8 %
1989 112.4 26,552 1.0 % 4.5 % 4.9 % 31.7 %
1990 118.8 27,956 1.9 % 4.1 % 5.2 % 28.4 %
1991 126.6 29,610 3.1 % 3.4 % 5.5 % 38.4 %
1992 134.1 31,183 3.6 % 2.3 % 5.9 % 44.1 %
1993 141.2 32,639 2.8 % 2.3 % 5.9 % 52.6 %
1994 151.5 34,829 5.1 % 1.4 % 5.4 % 49.6 %
1995 161.0 36,850 4.2 % 2.5 % 4.9 % 32.1 %
1996 172.2 39,205 5.0 % 1.3 % 4.8 % 27.8 %
1997 184.4 41,788 5.3 % 2.6 % 4.0 % 25.2 %
1998 191.3 43,084 2.6 % 2.5 % 3.2 % 22.9 %
1999 198.2 44,297 2.0 % 2.4 % 3.2 % 24.3 %
2000 209.2 46,471 3.2 % 3.1 % 3.4 % 28.1 %
2001 218.3 48,322 2.1 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 26.7 %
2002 224.9 49,464 1.4 % 1.3 % 3.9 % 33.5 %
2003 231.5 50,629 0.9 % 2.5 % 4.5 % 42.7 %
2004 247.3 53,771 4.0 % 0.4 % 4.5 % 43.5 %
2005 262.0 56,558 2.6 % 1.5 % 4.6 % 42.0 %
2006 276.5 59,180 2.4 % 2.3 % 3.4 % 53.3 %
2007 292.3 61,909 3.0 % 0.7 % 2.5 % 49.2 %
2008 299.5 62,560 0.5 % 0.5 % 2.6 % 47.2 %
2009 296.6 61,257 −1.7 % 2.2 % 3.2 % 41.9 %
2010 302.3 61,602 0.7 % 2.4 % 3.6 % 42.3 %
2011 311.6 62,656 1.0 % 1.3 % 3.3 % 28.8 %
2012 326.0 64,700 2.7 % 1.7 % 3.2 % 30.2 %
2013 334.6 65,673 1.0 % 2.1 % 3.5 % 30.4 %
2014 347.4 67,377 2.0 % 2.0 % 3.5 % 28.8 %
2015 358.1 68,796 2.0 % 2.2 % 4.4 % 33.1 %
2016 366.6 69,807 1.1 % 3.6 % 4.8 % 36.7 %
2017 380.0 71,831 1.8 % 1.9 % 4.2 % 36.7 %

Economic structure and sustained growth

The emergence of Norway as an oil-exporting country has raised a number of issues for Norwegian economic policy. There has been concern that much of Norway's human capital investment has been concentrated in petroleum-related industries. Critics have pointed out that Norway's economic structure is highly dependent on natural resources that do not require skilled labor, making economic growth highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the demand and pricing for these natural resources. The Government Pension Fund of Norway is part of several efforts to hedge against dependence on petroleum revenue.

Because of the oil boom since the 1970s, there has been little government incentive to help develop and encourage new industries in the private sector, in contrast to other Nordic countries like Sweden and particularly Finland. However the last decades have started to see some incentive on national and local government levels to encourage formation of new "mainland" industries that are competitive internationally. In addition to aspirations for a high-tech industry, there is growing interest in encouraging small business growth as a source of employment for the future. In 2006, the Norwegian government formed nine "centers of expertise" to facilitate this business growth.[34] Later in June 2007, the government contributed to the formation of the Oslo Cancer Cluster (OCC) as a center of expertise, capitalizing on the fact that 80% of cancer research in Norway takes place in proximity to Oslo and that most Norwegian biotechnology companies are focused on cancer.[34]

Regional variation
See also: List of Norwegian counties by GDP
Region GDP per capita 2015
in euros As % of EU-28 average
 European Union 29,000100%
 Norway 46,300160%
Richest Oslo and Akershus 51,800178%
Agder and Rogaland 40,600140%
Vestlandet 39,400136%
Trøndelag 35,500122%
Nord-Norge 33,500115%
Sør-Østlandet 30,000103%
Poorest Hedmark and Oppland 29,100100%

Source: Eurostat[35]

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See also

Notes
  1. "World Economic Outlook Database, April 2019". IMF.org. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved 29 September 2019.
  2. "World Bank Country and Lending Groups". datahelpdesk.worldbank.org. World Bank. Retrieved 29 September 2019.
  3. "Population on 1 January". ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Eurostat. Retrieved 13 July 2020.
  4. "World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019". IMF.org. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved 20 October 2019.
  5. "World Economic Outlook Database, April 2020". IMF.org. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved 15 April 2020.
  6. "The World Factbook". CIA.gov. Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved 29 June 2019.
  7. "People at risk of poverty or social exclusion". ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Eurostat. Retrieved 13 January 2020.
  8. "Gini coefficient of equivalised disposable income - EU-SILC survey". ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Eurostat. Retrieved 3 October 2019.
  9. "Human Development Index (HDI)". hdr.undp.org. HDRO (Human Development Report Office) United Nations Development Programme. Retrieved 11 December 2019.
  10. "Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI)". hdr.undp.org. UNDP. Retrieved 22 May 2020.
  11. "Labor Force Survey". ssb.no. Statistics Norway. Retrieved 29 June 2019.
  12. "Unemployment by sex and age - monthly average". appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu. Eurostat. Retrieved 2 July 2020.
  13. "Youth unemployment rate". data.oecd.org. OECD. Retrieved 3 April 2020.
  14. "Ease of Doing Business in Norway". Doingbusiness.org. Archived from the original on 4 November 2017. Retrieved 21 November 2017.
  15. "Sovereigns rating list". Standard & Poor's. Archived from the original on 28 September 2011. Retrieved 26 May 2011.
  16. Rogers, Simon; Sedghi, Ami (15 April 2011). "How Fitch, Moody's and S&P rate each country's credit rating". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 1 August 2013. Retrieved 31 May 2011.
  17. "Scope affirms Norway's sovereign credit rating at AAA with a Stable Outlook". Scope Ratings. Retrieved 8 February 2019.
  18. The economic effects of north sea oil on the manufacturing sector Archived 2 February 2014 at the Wayback Machine Hilde Christiane Bjørnland
  19. Overview of the Norwegian oil and gas sector Archived 23 May 2013 at the Wayback Machine Embassy of Denmark, Oslo
  20. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 June 2013. Retrieved 28 December 2012.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  21. The Oil Industry and Government Strategy in the North Sea Øystein Noreng
  22. "The rich cousin". The Economist. 1 February 2013. Archived from the original on 1 February 2013. Retrieved 1 February 2013.
  23. "United Nations Statistics Division - National Accounts". unstats.un.org. Archived from the original on 5 February 2016. Retrieved 30 April 2018.
  24. Riber, Lars; Dypvik, Henning; Sørlie, Ronald (2015). "Altered basement rocks on the Utsira High and its surroundings, Norwegian North Sea" (PDF). Norwegian Journal of Geology. 95 (1): 57–89. Retrieved 3 February 2018.
  25. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 14 January 2018. Retrieved 14 January 2018.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  26. Source: GDP per capita and productivity growth. "Productivity – GDP per hour worked". Data.oecd.org. Archived from the original on 24 January 2018. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  27. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardCID". atlas.cid.harvard.edu. Retrieved 20 May 2018.
  28. LIE, EINAR (6 April 2016). "Context and Contingency: Explaining State Ownership in Norway". Enterprise & Society. 17 (4): 904–930. doi:10.1017/eso.2016.18.
  29. Korin Kane (17 September 2018). "The Size and Sectoral Distribution of State-Owned Enterprises" (PDF). OECD.ORG. Retrieved 3 October 2019.
  30. "Norway - Marketisation of Government Services State-Owned Enterprises" (PDF). OECD.ORG. 2003. Retrieved 3 October 2019.
  31. "The Government's Revenues". Norwegian Petroleum. 15 May 2019. Retrieved 3 October 2019.
  32. "Norway - Marketisation of Government Services State-Owned Enterprises" (PDF). OECD.ORG. 2003. Retrieved 3 October 2019.
  33. "Report for Selected Countries and Subjects". www.imf.org. Retrieved 15 September 2018.
  34. Aldridge 2008
  35. Gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices by NUTS 2 regions Archived 24 October 2017 at the Wayback Machine Eurostat
  1. data cover general government debt and include debt instruments issued (or owned) by government entities other than the treasury; the data exclude treasury debt held by foreign entities; the data exclude debt issued by subnational entities, as well as intragovernmental debt; intragovernmental debt consists of treasury borrowings from surpluses in the social funds, such as for retirement, medical care, and unemployment; debt instruments for the social funds are not sold at public auctions

References
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