2004 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

The 2004 United States presidential election in Massachusetts took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 12 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

2004 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

November 2, 2004

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 12 0 Popular vote 1,803,800 1,071,109 Percentage 61.94% 36.78%

County Results Kerry   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Massachusetts was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 25.2% margin of victory. Kerry took 61.94% of the vote to Republican George W. Bush's 36.78%. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Massachusetts had been a Democratic-leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and has kept up its intense level of the sizable Democratic margins since 1996. No Republican has won even a single county or congressional district in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988 and no Republican won statewide since Ronald Reagan's landslide victory in 1984. In the 2004 presidential election it was also the home state of Democratic candidate John Kerry, who at the time represented Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate.

Massachusetts weighed in as about 27% more Democratic than the national average in 2004, making it the most Democratic state in the union, and the only state where Kerry won with more than 60% of the vote.

Primaries

• Massachusetts Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
6. The New York Times: Solid Kerry
7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
9. The Washington Post: Kerry
10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won every pre-election poll, and each with a double-digit margin and with at least 50% of the vote. The final 3 poll average showed Kerry with a strong lead of 57% to 31%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,060,356.[3] Kerry raised $18,565,872, which was 10% of all the money he raised in 2004, and the third highest amount below only New York and California.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[5][6]

Analysis

Massachusetts was (and is) the bluest state in the nation. The Bay State has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1960 except for Ronald Reagan's landslide victories of 1980 and 1984. In 1972, only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia voted for Democratic U.S. Senator George McGovern as Republican Richard M. Nixon won reelection.

Kerry won Massachusetts, with a 25% spread against George W. Bush, which is actually similar to Al Gore's margin in 2000. He won every county and congressional district safely. The 2004 Democratic National Convention took place at the TD Banknorth Garden, then called FleetCenter in Boston, the state capital.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Massachusetts
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	1,803,800	61.94%	12
	Republican	George W. Bush	1,071,109	36.78%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	15,022	0.52%	0
	Green-Rainbow	David Cobb	10,623	0.36%	0
	Independent	Others (Write-In)	7,028	0.24%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader (Write-In)	4,806	0.17%	0
Write-in votes			11,834	0.41%	0

Results breakdown

By county

Counties are listed in order of % of Kerry vote : the last column shows the county winner in 2000 and the gain of the Democratic party between the two elections.

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#	2000 result
Suffolk	75.6%	182,592	22.8%	54,923	1.3%	3,130	+4.2
Berkshire	73.1%	47,743	25.7%	16,806	1.1%	742	+9.2
Dukes	72.7%	7,265	26.0%	2,602	1.3%	130	+10.9
Hampshire	69.4%	51,680	28.6%	21,315	1.9%	1,427	+13.2
Franklin	68.4%	25,550	29.6%	11,058	2.1%	773	+14.6
Middlesex	64.0%	440,862	34.5%	237,815	1.5%	10,283	+2.5
Bristol	63.5%	147,854	35.4%	82,524	1.1%	2,500	−1.0
Nantucket	63.0%	3,608	35.6%	2,040	1.3%	76	+4.7
Hampden	60.9%	113,710	38.0%	70,925	1.1%	2,004	+2.7
Norfolk	60.2%	199,392	38.6%	127,763	1.2%	3,982	+0.8
Essex	58.2%	194,068	40.5%	135,114	1.2%	4,051	+0.7
Worcester	56.4%	192,142	42.3%	144,094	1.3%	4,400	+0.4
Barnstable	54.6%	72,156	44.3%	58,527	1.1%	1,465	+3.1
Plymouth	53.7%	125,178	45.3%	105,603	1.1%	2,516	−0.8

Results by municipality

Results by Town

  Kerry – >90%

  Kerry – 80–90%

  Kerry – 70–80%

  Kerry – 60–70%

  Kerry – 50–60%

  Kerry – <50%

  Bush – <50%

  Bush – 50–60%

Results by Congressional district

Kerry won all ten Congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	35%	63%	John Olver
2nd	40%	59%	Richard Neal
3rd	40%	59%	Jim McGovern
4th	33%	65%	Barney Frank
5th	41%	57%	Marty Meehan
6th	41%	58%	John Tierney
7th	33%	66%	Ed Markey
8th	19%	79%	Mike Capuano
9th	36%	63%	Stephen Lynch
10th	43%	56%	William Delahunt

Electors

Technically the voters of Massachusetts cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Massachusetts is allocated 12 electors because it has 10 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 12 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 12 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 12 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

1. Cathaleen L. Ashton
2. Sharon M. Pollard
3. Elizabeth Moroney
4. Helen Covington
5. Candice E. Lopes
6. Susan Thomson
7. Robert P. Cassidy
8. William P. Dooling
9. William Eddy
10. Thomas V. Barbera
11. Mushtaque A. Minza
12. Calvin T. Brown

References

1. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
2. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=25
3. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
4. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
5. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
6. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html

See also