2012 Andalusian regional election

The 2012 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Asturias.

2012 Andalusian regional election

25 March 2012
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	6,392,620 2.6%
Turnout	3,885,137 (60.8%) 11.9 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Javier Arenas José Antonio Griñán Diego Valderas Party PP PSOE–A IULV–CA Leader since 18 April 2004 23 April 2009 10 October 2000 Leader's seat Almería Seville Huelva Last election 47 seats, 38.5% 56 seats, 48.4% 6 seats, 7.1% Seats won 50 47 12 Seat change 3 9 6 Popular vote 1,570,833 1,527,923 438,372 Percentage 40.7% 39.6% 11.3% Swing 2.2 pp 8.8 pp 4.2 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election José Antonio Griñán PSOE–A Elected President José Antonio Griñán PSOE–A

Being a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) stronghold for decades, the People's Party (PP) had scored a decisive win in the region in the November 2011 general election and was widely expected to come out on top for the first time in its history, with opinion polls suggesting it could win an absolute majority on its own. The election, however, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national Mariano Rajoy's government since coming to power in December 2011;[1] Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform had triggered a general strike scheduled for 29 March.[2][3] Incumbent President José Antonio Griñán chose not to hold the election simultaneously with the 2011 general election—the first time since 1994 that both elections were not held at the same time.[4]

Final results showed a surprising close race between the PP and the PSOE–A, the first emerging out on top but falling far short of an overall majority. In contrast, the PSOE–A held its own and retained 47 seats despite polls predicting a tougher defeat, allowing Griñán to remain in power through a coalition government with United Left (IULV–CA), which doubled its seat count from 6 to 12 and was placed in a "kingmaker" position.[5]

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution of 1978 and the regional Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[6]

Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Andalusians abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[7] The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).[6][8]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[9]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[8][10]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 9 March 2008, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 9 March 2012. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 14 February 2012, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 8 April 2012.[6][8][10]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[6][11]

Background

Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for 4[12] or 18 March, the result of the general election in November made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election.[13]

This has been the first time since 1996 that an Andalusian regional election has not been held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had chosen to hold the 2012 general election 4 months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011.

The 2011 general election resulted in a resounding victory for the opposition People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, which won in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy. The PP won 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to PSOE's 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in 2008. United Left won 2 seats from Sevilla and Malaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes.

Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the People's Party an absolute majority with 58 seats (out of 109 up for election), with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. United Left would keep its 6 seats on the projections while UPyD could enter the Parliament with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30-year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community: the party being in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.[14]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV			Lead
2012 regional election	25 Mar 2012	N/A	60.8	39.6 47	40.7 50	11.3 12	2.5 0	3.4 0	1.1
Ipsos/RTVA[p 1][p 2]	25 Mar 2012	?	60.4	39.2 45/48	42.0 52/55	9.9 8/10	2.7 0	3.0 0	2.8
GAD3[p 3]	19 Mar 2012	?	?	38.1 44/48	46.7 55/58	8.1 7/9	2.1 0	2.7 0	8.6
UJA[p 4]	12–16 Mar 2012	1,500	?	36.8 43/45	42.9 53/56	10.8 9/10	2.7 0/1	3.6 0/1	6.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 5]	12–15 Mar 2012	2,000	?	36.0 43/44	45.8 54/57	8.9 7/9	2.9 0/1	3.8 1/2	9.8
Metroscopia/El País[p 6][p 7]	6–15 Mar 2012	1,200	?	34.4 41	47.3 59	8.8 9	2.7 0	3.2 0	12.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 8][p 9]	1–15 Mar 2012	2,700	67.6	36.1 42/44	46.0 55/57	9.3 7/9	? 0/1	4.2 0/2	9.9
Opinión 2000/Cadena SER[p 10][p 11]	12–13 Mar 2012	800	?	36.0	46.7	8.8	4.1	2.8	10.7
IMC/ABC[p 12][p 13]	7–12 Mar 2012	1,000	?	35.6 43	47.0 58	8.7 6	1.8 0	4.6 2	11.4
Low Cost/La Gaceta[p 14]	5–12 Mar 2012	1,500	?	37.2 44	45.2 57	8.5 7	–	? 1	8.0
GAD3[p 15][p 16]	5–8 Mar 2012	750	63	36.8 42/45	46.2 56/58	9.2 7/10	2.4 0	2.9 0/1	9.4
NC Report/La Razón[p 17][p 18]	20 Feb–6 Mar 2012	2,700	67.7	35.7 41/44	45.7 55/57	9.9 8/9	? 0/1	4.3 0/2	10.0
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 19][p 20]	13–29 Feb 2012	1,001	?	36.9 44/47	45.2 54/57	8.5 7/8	2.3 0	3.7 0/1	8.3
CIS[p 21][p 22]	15–27 Feb 2012	3,139	?	37.7 44/46	44.9 54/55	9.8 9/10	2.6 0	2.6 0	7.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 23]	22–24 Feb 2012	2,000	?	36.3 42/44	45.0 54/57	9.3 8/9	2.4 0/1	4.2 1/2	8.7
GESPA/PP[p 24]	6–22 Feb 2012	2,000	?	37.2 43/44	46.7 56/58	7.6 6/7	2.2 0	3.9 2	9.5
IMC/ABC[p 25][p 26]	8–16 Feb 2012	1,500	?	36.2 43/44	46.3 56/60	8.2 5/7	2.2 0	4.3 1/2	10.1
Nexo/CEPES–A[p 27][p 28]	1–14 Feb 2012	1,600	71.5	37.6 46/47	45.1 53/57	7.5 6/8	2.8 0/1	3.3 0/1	7.5
NC Report/La Razón[p 29]	1–13 Feb 2012	?	67.6	34.2 41	47.4 57	? 9	? 1	? 1	13.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 30][p 31]	30 Jan 2012	?	67.3	35.6 44	46.9 55	8.9 8	2.9 1	3.8 1	11.3
Low Cost/Libertad Digital[p 32][p 33]	22 Jan 2012	2,400	?	36.6 44	43.7 56	9.1 8	–	4.6 1	7.1
IMC/ABC[p 34]	16–24 Jan 2012	1,500	?	35.2	47.1	8.5	2.1	4.7	11.9
CADPEA/UGR[p 35][p 36]	1–30 Dec 2011	3,200	63.4	37.6 45/47	47.0 56/58	6.3 5/6	2.0 0	3.0 0/1	9.4
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	N/A	68.9	36.6 44	45.6 58	8.3 5	1.8 0	4.8 2	9.0
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37][p 38]	18–24 Oct 2011	501	?	34.8	49.4	8.4	2.0	–	14.6
IESA/CSIC[p 39][p 40]	26 Sep–21 Oct 2011	3,682	69.8	36.0	46.4	8.1	2.8	3.2	10.4
ABC[p 41]	29 Jul 2011	?	68.2	33.2	50.2	8.3	2.3	1.5	17.0
Sigma Dos/PP[p 42]	14–19 Jul 2011	800	?	34.2	50.4	7.7	2.8	–	16.2
CADPEA/UGR[p 43]	6 Jun–11 Jul 2011	3,600	69.9	34.3	48.9	8.3	2.4	1.4	14.6
IMOP/PSOE[p 44]	4–10 Jul 2011	1,514	?	39.0	46.0	6.8	2.5	3.0	7.0
2011 local elections	22 May 2011	N/A	65.8	32.5	39.4	12.0	5.7	1.8	6.9
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 45][p 46][p 47]	12–15 Apr 2011	1,200	?	36.8 43/46	48.0 56/60	7.8 6/7	–	–	11.2
Metroscopia/El País[p 48][p 49]	21–22 Feb 2011	804	?	35.2 45	47.5 57	8.4 7	–	–	12.3
IMC/ABC[p 50][p 51]	10–20 Feb 2011	1,600	?	38.2 45	45.3 57	7.6 7	2.3 0	–	7.1
Sigma Dos/Vocento[p 52][p 53]	15–18 Feb 2011	800	?	38.2	47.6	7.7	1.3	1.8	9.4
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 54][p 55]	9–16 Feb 2011	500	?	36.9	47.1	8.5	2.9	–	10.2
GESPA/PP[p 56]	1–4 Feb 2011	1,111	?	37.0 45	46.1 56/57	7.8 7/8	–	–	9.1
Nexo/CEPES–A[p 57][p 58]	18 Jan–2 Feb 2011	1,200	73.0	39.7	46.2	7.6	3.2	–	6.5
NC Report/La Razón[p 59][p 60]	30 Dec–3 Jan 2011	?	?	39.1 46/47	46.2 53/54	? 9	–	–	7.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 61][p 62]	20–23 Dec 2010	1,200	?	36.4 41/46	49.3 56/64	7.2 4/7	–	–	12.9
CADPEA/UGR[p 63]	24 Nov–22 Dec 2010	3,200	75.2	36.2	45.4	8.2	2.3	1.4	9.2
IESA/CSIC[p 64][p 65]	18 Oct–18 Nov 2010	3,655	71.0	37.7 43	46.8 58	8.2 8	2.9 0	1.7 0	9.1
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 66][p 67]	21–27 Oct 2010	502	?	39.1	46.2	7.0	2.7	2.1	7.1
GESPA/PP[p 68][p 69][p 70]	20–26 Sep 2010	1,111	?	38.2 45/46	45.5 56/57	7.6 7	2.5 0	1.7 0	7.3
CADPEA/UGR[p 71]	7 Jun–6 Jul 2010	3,200	72.1	38.0	45.1	8.1	2.1	1.5	7.1
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 72]	10–15 Jun 2010	806	?	38.1	45.4	8.5	2.5	1.5	7.3
IMC/ABC[p 73]	8–12 Jun 2010	817	?	38.7 46	44.3 56	7.6 7	2.3 0	–	5.6
Metroscopia/El País[p 74][p 75]	15–18 Feb 2010	804	?	41.0 49	43.3 54	7.2 6	2.9 0	–	2.3
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 76]	9–15 Feb 2010	1,000	?	42.9	42.5	7.5	2.5	2.0	0.4
Sigma Dos/Vocento[p 77][p 75]	8–15 Feb 2010	800	?	41.8	45.7	6.2	1.4	1.6	3.9
IMC/ABC[p 78]	25 Jan–12 Feb 2010	1,600	?	40.8 51	42.9 52	7.2 6	2.1 0	–	2.1
CADPEA/UGR[p 79]	7–29 Jan 2010	3,200	76.7	43.2	41.9	7.1	2.8	1.4	1.3
PULSO/El Correo[p 80][p 75]	11–28 Jan 2010	1,800	?	41.8	41.1	6.4	2.4	2.6	0.7
Nexo/CEPES–A[p 81][p 82]	20–28 Jan 2010	1,207	71.0	41.3	41.9	6.9	3.9	–	0.6
IESA/CSIC[p 83][p 84]	1–30 Nov 2009	3,645	70.5	41.6	43.2	7.1	2.4	1.8	1.6
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 85]	23 Sep–2 Oct 2009	1,002	75	42.7	42.2	7.1	2.4	2.6	0.5
CADPEA/UGR[p 86]	9 Jun–9 Jul 2009	3,200	74.9	46.2	39.7	6.7	2.6	1.1	6.5
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 87]	28 Jun 2009	?	75	45.6	39.1	7.5	2.7	2.4	6.5
GESPA/PP[p 88]	16–24 Jun 2009	2,500	?	44.1	42.8	6.5	1.5	2.1	1.3
Grupo ESTIO/El Correo[p 89]	25 May–19 Jun 2009	1,400	?	48.6	40.2	6.2	1.8	–	8.4
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	N/A	41.7	48.2 58	39.7 48	5.2 3	1.0 0	2.5 0	8.5
Sigma Dos/Vocento[p 90][p 91]	19–23 Feb 2009	800	?	46.8	40.5	7.2	1.9	–	6.3
Metroscopia/El País[p 92][p 91]	10–12 Feb 2009	800	73.3	44.3 53/55	43.2 49/50	6.6 5/6	2.9 0	–	1.1
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 93][p 91]	29 Jan–11 Feb 2009	1,000	?	46.2	39.1	7.5	2.8	1.2	7.1
IMC/ABC[p 94]	5–9 Feb 2009	1,600	?	45.8 54	42.6 49	6.9 6	1.9 0	–	3.2
Nexo/CEPES–A[p 95]	20–30 Jan 2009	1,202	70.5	45.8	39.6	7.9	3.1	–	6.2
Idea Asesores/PP[p 96][p 97]	9–19 Dec 2008	2,000	?	44.7 52	43.1 51	7.6 6	1.5 0	–	1.6
CADPEA/UGR[p 98]	14 Nov–12 Dec 2008	3,200	74.7	46.2	38.8	7.5	2.2	–	7.4
IESA/CSIC[p 99][p 100][p 101]	10 Nov–5 Dec 2008	3,658	71.8	47.0	40.8	6.2	2.5	–	6.2
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 102]	20 Sep–2 Oct 2008	1,000	?	46.5	39.6	7.3	2.2	1.2	6.9
CADPEA/UGR[p 103]	2 Jun–4 Jul 2008	3,200	74.0	46.7	38.1	7.9	2.0	–	8.6
2008 regional election	9 Mar 2008	N/A	72.7	48.4 56	38.5 47	7.1 6	2.8 0	0.6 0	9.9

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 March 2012 Parliament of Andalusia election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	1,570,833	40.67	+2.22	50	+3
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	1,527,923	39.56	–8.85	47	–9
	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	438,372	11.35	+4.29	12	+6
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	129,407	3.35	+2.73	0	±0
	Andalusian Party (PA)^1	96,770	2.51	–0.25	0	±0
	Equo (Equo)	20,383	0.53	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	8,781	0.23	New	0	±0
	Blank Seats (EB)	5,660	0.15	New	0	±0
	Hartos.org (Hartos.org)	4,966	0.13	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	4,119	0.11	+0.05	0	±0
	We Won't Pay this Crisis (ECNP)	2,680	0.07	New	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)	2,407	0.06	+0.02	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	1,704	0.04	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Platform–Citizen Forum (FC)	1,634	0.04	New	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	1,406	0.04	New	0	±0
	Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO)	1,071	0.03	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	1,040	0.03	–0.03	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	1,026	0.03	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	896	0.02	–0.07	0	±0
	Andalusian Horticulture Party (PHAN)	832	0.02	New	0	±0
	Socialists and Republicans (SyR)	787	0.02	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Convergence (CAnda)	762	0.02	–0.15	0	±0
	Spanish Alternative (AES)	653	0.02	New	0	±0
	Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD)	643	0.02	New	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	628	0.02	New	0	±0
	Democratic Majority (MD)	515	0.01	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	408	0.01	–0.01	0	±0
	Engine and Sports Alternative (AMD)	362	0.01	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)	345	0.01	–0.02	0	±0
	Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria (AUPAL)	216	0.01	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA)	156	0.00	New	0	±0
	Regionalist Call for Andalusia (CReA)	146	0.00	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA)	135	0.00	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		35,081	0.91	–0.15
Total		3,862,747			109	±0
Valid votes		3,862,747	99.42	+0.05
Invalid votes		22,390	0.58	–0.05
Votes cast / turnout		3,885,137	60.78	–11.89
Abstentions		2,507,483	39.22	+11.89
Registered voters		6,392,620
Sources[15][16][17]

Popular vote PP   40.67% PSOE–A   39.56% IULV–CA   11.35% UPyD   3.35% PA   2.51% Others   1.67% Blank ballots   0.91%

Seats PP   45.87% PSOE–A   43.12% IULV–CA   11.01%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE–A		IULV–CA
	%	S	%	S	%	S
Almería	51.2	7	35.4	4	7.1	1
Cádiz	40.5	7	35.6	6	12.7	2
Córdoba	39.7	5	38.9	5	13.3	2
Granada	43.5	6	39.5	6	10.0	1
Huelva	38.6	5	43.4	5	10.9	1
Jaén	41.1	5	44.5	5	8.8	1
Málaga	43.7	8	35.3	7	12.2	2
Seville	35.3	7	43.1	9	12.2	2
Total	40.7	50	39.6	47	11.3	12
Sources[15][16][17]

Aftermath

Government formation

On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE–IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.

Investiture José Antonio Griñán (PSOE–A)
Ballot →		3 May 2012[lower-alpha 1]
Required majority →		55 out of 109 Y
	Yes • PSOE–A (47) • IULV–CA (11)	58 / 109
	No • PP (50)	50 / 109
	Abstentions	0 / 109
	Absentees	0 / 109
Sources[15]

2013 investiture

In July 2013, President Griñán announced he was resigning from his office. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required endorsements to run in the primary election that was held to elect Griñán's successor, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Parliament of Andalusia elected Díaz as new regional premier.

Investiture Susana Díaz (PSOE–A)
Ballot →		5 September 2013[lower-alpha 2]
Required majority →		55 out of 109 Y
	Yes • PSOE–A (47) • IULV–CA (11)	58 / 109
	No • PP (48)	48 / 109
	Abstentions	0 / 109
	Abstentees • PP (2)	2 / 109
Sources[15]

Notes

1. 1 IULV–CA MP cast an invalid ballot.
2. 1 IULV–CA MP did not cast any ballot.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía, según el sondeo de Ipsos". Canal Sur (in Spanish). 25 March 2012.
2. "El PP roza la mayoría absoluta, según el sondeo de Canal Sur". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 25 March 2012.
3. "El PP ganará el domingo por mayoría absoluta pese al leve repunte de Griñán". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 19 March 2012.
4. "El PP de Arenas se mueve en el entorno de la mayoría absoluta" (PDF). Diario Jaén (in Spanish). 19 March 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 6 March 2015.
5. "El PP sigue sin amarrar la mayoría absoluta a una semana de los comicios". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
6. "Victoria clara del PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 17 March 2012.
7. "Victoria clara del PP en Andalucía (El País)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
8. "Arenas arrebata al PSOE 245.000 votantes para su mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 19 March 2012.
9. "El PP aventaja en 10 puntos al PSOE y consigue la mayoría absoluta (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 19 March 2012.
10. "El PP alcanza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 16 March 2012.
11. "Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Resultados Encuesta. Marzo 2012" (PDF). Instituto de Opinión 2000 (in Spanish). 16 March 2012.
12. "Arenas afianza su mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
13. "Ni Sevilla resiste la marea del PP". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
14. "Arenas ganará en Andalucía por mayoría absoluta". Intereconomía (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
15. "PP-A ganaría por mayoría absoluta con 56-58 escaños y 9,4 puntos sobre el PSOE-A, según una encuesta de GAD3". Europa Press (in Spanish). 9 March 2012.
16. "El PP andaluz supera al PSOE en 9,4 puntos (GAD3)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 12 March 2012.
17. "El PSOE pierde 662.000 votantes". La Razón (in Spanish). 12 March 2012.
18. "El PP andaluz capta 250.000 votos del PSOE (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 12 March 2012.
19. "El PP de Javier Arenas se sitúa en el umbral de la mayoría absoluta". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 11 March 2012.
20. "El PSOE recorta distancias en Andalucía (Grupo Joly)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 12 March 2012.
21. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2012. Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía (Estudio nº 2931. Febrero 2012)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 8 March 2012.
22. "El sondeo del CIS no garantiza al PP la conquista de Andalucía". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 March 2012.
23. "El PP tiene en su mano la mayoría absoluta a un mes de los comicios". El Mundo (in Spanish). 28 February 2012.
24. "Encuesta preelectoral Andalucía. Febrero 2012" (PDF). GESPA (in Spanish). 27 February 2012.
25. "El PP consolida la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2012.
26. "El PP ganaría en todas las provincias menos en Sevilla". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 29 February 2012.
27. "Un sondeo rebaja las opciones de Arenas de lograr la mayoría absoluta" (PDF). El Correo de Andalucía (in Spanish). 28 February 2012.
28. "Un sondeo del PP le da la mayoría absoluta con 9,5 puntos sobre el PSOE". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 27 February 2012.
29. "El PP conquista Sevilla ante el descalabro de Griñán". La Razón (in Spanish). 14 February 2012.
30. "Arenas tumba a Griñán". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 January 2012.
31. "Cinco partidos podrían entrar en el Parlamento Andaluz (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 30 January 2012.
32. "La mayoría absoluta de Arenas pende de dos escaños". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 22 January 2012.
33. "El PP conseguiría una ajustada mayoría absoluta en Andalucía (Libertad Digital)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 January 2012.
34. "El hundimiento del PSOE consolida la mayoría absoluta del PP en Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 3 February 2012.
35. "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2011" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 12 January 2012.
36. "El escenario más probable en Andalucía es una mayoría absoluta del PP". Electómetro (in Spanish). 20 January 2012.
37. "Barómetro Joly de Opinión Pública en Andalucía: resultados acumulados a octubre de 2011 (9ª ola)" (PDF). Commentia (in Spanish). 6 November 2011.
38. "Andaluzas: Arenas le saca 14,6 puntos a Griñan (Grupo Joly)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 6 November 2011.
39. "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Noviembre, 2011" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 30 November 2011.
40. "Javier Arenas ganaría las próximas elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (IESA)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 30 November 2011.
41. "Maquillan un sondeo oficial para que Griñán supere a Arenas en valoración". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 29 July 2011.
42. "Otra encuesta, la primera tras el 22M, da al PP mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 24 July 2011.
43. "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2011" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 29 July 2011.
44. "Una encuesta interna del PSOE da al PP 7 puntos de ventaja en Andalucía". El Correo de Andalucía (in Spanish). 28 July 2011.
45. "El PP amarra la mayoría pero frena su ascenso". El Mundo (in Spanish). 26 April 2011.
46. "El Mundo 25-27 de Abril 2011". El Mundo (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
47. "El PP ganaría con mayoría absoluta en Andalucía (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 26 April 2011.
48. "El PP ganaría por mayoría absoluta en Andalucía tras 30 años de autonomía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2011.
49. "Vuelco electoral en Andalucía tras 30 años de gobierno socialista (El País)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 28 February 2011.
50. "El PP saca siete puntos al PSOE y consolida sus opciones de gobernar". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2011.
51. "El PP saca siete puntos al PSOE y consolida sus opciones de gobernar". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2011.
52. "El PP dobla la ventaja sobre el PSOE en un año y se sitúa en la mayoría absoluta". La Voz de Cádiz (in Spanish). 27 February 2011.
53. "El PP dobla la ventaja sobre el PSOE en un año y se sitúa en la mayoría absoluta". Diario Sur (in Spanish). 27 February 2011.
54. "El PP acrecienta la diferencia con el PSOE y lo deja a 10,2 puntos". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 27 February 2011.
55. "Arenas amplía su ventaja sobre Griñán (Barómetro grupo Joly)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 27 February 2011.
56. "El PP obtendría la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía (Gespa)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 21 February 2011.
57. "Instantáneas de la Sociedad Andaluza. Febrero, 2011" (PDF). CEPES–A (in Spanish). 21 February 2011.
58. "Otra encuesta sitúa a Arenas al filo de la mayoría absoluta y al PSOE en caída libre". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 22 February 2011.
59. "El PP conquista los grandes feudos de los socialistas". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 January 2011.
60. "El PP, a un paso de la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y Castilla La Mancha (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 22 January 2011.
61. "El PP de Arenas obtiene una mayoría absoluta más sólida que la del PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 8 January 2011.
62. "Vuelco andaluz (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 8 January 2011.
63. "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2010" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 24 January 2011.
64. "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Diciembre, 2010" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 20 December 2010.
65. "El PP sostiene que la encuesta del IESA le otorgaría 58 escaños". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 23 December 2010.
66. "El giro político de Zapatero apenas recorta la ventaja del PP andaluz". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 7 November 2010.
67. "El PP roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía (barómetro grupo Joly)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 7 November 2010.
68. "Un nuevo sondeo da al PP-A la mayoría absoluta por cuarta vez consecutiva". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 4 October 2010.
69. "Sondeo de opinión pública en Andalucía. Septiembre 2010" (PDF). GESPA (in Spanish). 3 October 2010.
70. "El PP obtendría la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía (encuesta propia)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 3 October 2010.
71. "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2010" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 28 July 2010.
72. "El PP rompe el empate con creces y adelanta al PSOE en siete puntos". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 27 June 2010.
73. "El PP llega a las puertas de la Junta al lograr por primera vez mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 21 June 2010.
74. "El PP avanza y gana en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2010.
75. "El PP, a un paso del vuelco electoral". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 March 2010.
76. "El PP no pasa del empate técnico en Andalucía". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 27 February 2010.
77. "El PP supera al PSOE en 3,9 puntos y lograría una amplia mayoría". La Voz de Cádiz (in Spanish). 28 February 2010.
78. "El PP gana al PSOE por 2,1 puntos y se queda a tres escaños de la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 21 February 2010.
79. "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2009-2010" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 18 February 2010.
80. "Una maratón con 'foto finish'". El Correo de Andalucía (in Spanish). 20 February 2010.
81. "Instantáneas de la Sociedad Andaluza. Febrero del 2010" (PDF). CEPES–A (in Spanish). 16 February 2010.
82. "Un nuevo sondeo da al PP como vencedor en las elecciones autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 16 February 2010.
83. "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. 2009" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 15 January 2010.
84. "El PP ganaría hoy por primera vez al PSOE en las elecciones andaluzas". ABC (in Spanish). 16 January 2010.
85. "El desgaste de Zapatero y la respuesta a la crisis contagian al PSOE andaluz". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 18 October 2009.
86. "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2009" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 31 July 2009.
87. "El PSOE le sigue sacando 6,5 puntos al PP a pesar de la marcha de su líder". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 June 2009.
88. "Un sondeo del PP le sitúa a 1,3 puntos del PSOE en intención de voto". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 4 July 2009.
89. "Un sondeo da mayoría absoluta al PSOE andaluz". El País (in Spanish). 22 June 2009.
90. "Ligero desgaste del PSOE y mejora del PP". La Voz de Cádiz (in Spanish). 28 February 2009.
91. "El desgaste pasa factura al PSOE". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 March 2009.
92. "El PP se sitúa a un punto del PSOE en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2009.
93. "El PSOE le sigue sacando siete puntos al PP a pesar de la crisis". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2009.
94. "El PSOE pierde su mayoría absoluta por la subida del PP, que se sitúa a sólo tres puntos". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2009.
95. "El PSOE baja tres puntos en intención de voto mientras el PP sigue subiendo". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 24 February 2009.
96. "Un sondeo del PP apunta el empate". El País (in Spanish). 10 January 2009.
97. "Un sondeo del PP lo sitúa en "empate técnico" con el PSOE en las autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 10 January 2009.
98. "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2008" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 22 January 2009.
99. "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Diciembre, 2008" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 10 January 2009.
100. "La crisis castiga a Chaves, aunque volvería a ganar por mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 10 January 2009.
101. "El PSOE andaluz aventaja en 6,2 puntos al PP en intención de voto". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 9 January 2009.
102. "El PSOE apenas sufre el efecto de la crisis". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 19 October 2008.
103. "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2008" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 31 July 2008.

Other

1. "Test for Rajoy and Rubalcaba" (in Spanish). El País. 23 March 2012.
2. "The reform eases and cheapens the dismissal" (in Spanish). El País. 10 February 2012.
3. "29 March, general strike" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 9 March 2012.
4. "Griñán will not call snap election in Andalusia" (in Spanish). diariovasco.com. 29 July 2011.
5. "The left wins in Andalusia" (in Spanish). El País. 25 March 2012.
6. "Ley Orgánica 2/2007, de 19 de marzo, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía". Organic Law No. 2 of 19 March 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
7. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
8. "Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
9. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
10. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
11. "Ley 6/2006, de 24 de octubre, del Gobierno de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía". Law No. 6 of 24 October 2006. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
12. "Las elecciones andaluzas serán el 4 de marzo de 2012" (in Spanish). El País. Retrieved 21 January 2012.
13. "Las elecciones en Andalucía serán el 25 de marzo" (in Spanish). Público. Retrieved 21 January 2012.
14. "El PP se haría con la Junta de Andalucía con los resultados de las generales" (in Spanish). Libertad Digital.com. Retrieved 21 January 2012.
15. "Parliament of Andalusia elections since 1982". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
16. "Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 2012. Andalusia totals". juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Regional Government of Andalusia. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
17. "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 25 March 2012" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Central Electoral Commission. 17 April 2012. Retrieved 25 September 2017.