2011 Aragonese regional election

The 2011 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2011 Aragonese regional election

22 May 2011
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon 34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,016,021 0.1%
Turnout	689,904 (67.9%) 1.4 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Luisa Fernanda Rudi Eva Almunia José Ángel Biel Party PP PSOE PAR Leader since 8 November 2008 10 September 2010 2 June 2000 Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Teruel Last election 23 seats, 31.1% 30 seats, 41.1% 9 seats, 12.1% Seats won 30 22 7 Seat change 7 8 2 Popular vote 269,729 197,189 62,193 Percentage 39.7% 29.0% 9.2% Swing 8.6 pp 12.1 pp 2.9 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Nieves Ibeas Adolfo Barrena Party CHA IU Leader since 12 January 2008 May 2002 Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Last election 4 seats, 8.1% 1 seat, 4.1% Seats won 4 4 Seat change 0 3 Popular vote 55,932 41,874 Percentage 8.2% 6.2% Swing 0.1 pp 2.1 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Aragon
President before election Marcelino Iglesias PSOE Elected President Luisa Fernanda Rudi PP

The outgoing Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) administration suffered a serious defeat after losing nearly 30% of its 2007 vote. The then-oppositor People's Party (PP) obtained the best result of its history in the region, despite remaining 4 seats short for an absolute majority of seats. This was also the first time since the 1999 election that the PP had received the most votes in Aragon. United Left (IU) had its best result since 1995, gaining 3 seats for a total of 4. The Aragonese Party (PAR), on the other hand, obtained its worst historical result, while the Aragonese Union (CHA) remained static at its 2007 result.

As a result of the election, Luisa Fernanda Rudi from the People's Party was elected President of Aragon as part of a PP-PAR coalition agreement. The PAR had been previously the PSOE coalition partner from 1999 to 2011.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Government.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Aragonese people abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[3] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of 13 seats, with the remaining 28 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations on the condition that the seat to population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one.[1][4]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[4][5][6]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election Decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 27 May 2011. The election Decree was required to be published no later than 3 May 2011, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 26 June 2011.[1][4][5][6]

The President of the Government had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	N/A	67.9	29.0 22	39.7 30	9.2 7	8.2 4	6.2 4	2.3 0	10.7
Ipsos–Eco/FORTA[p 1][p 2]	22 May 2011	?	?	30.3 22/25	36.7 27/30	10.6 8/9	8.5 4/5	6.5 3/4	2.0 0/1	6.4
IACOM/El Periódico[p 3]	15 May 2011	?	?	? 26	? 27	? 6/7	? 4	? 3/4	–	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 4]	10–12 May 2011	850	?	33.6 25/27	38.4 27/29	9.8 7	8.1 4	4.9 2	–	4.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 5][p 6]	3–10 May 2011	?	?	36.9 25/27	38.4 28/29	? 7/8	–	–	–	2.5
Ikerfel/Vocento[p 7]	9 May 2011	?	?	36.9 26/28	34.6 26/27	9.5 7	7.7 4/5	5.4 2	–	2.3
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 8][p 9]	27–28 Apr 2011	1,000	?	30.4 23/24	37.0 27/28	11.9 8/9	9.2 4/5	5.0 3	–	6.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 10][p 11]	25 Apr 2011	?	?	37.6 26/27	38.5 27/29	11.2 7/8	6.3 ?	4.4 ?	–	0.9
Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 12]	13–20 Apr 2011	600	?	31.1 21	39.6 28	10.3 8	7.8 5	5.9 5	–	8.5
CIS[p 13][p 14]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,596	?	35.7 27	33.9 26	10.3 7	8.2 4	5.1 3	2.4 0	1.8
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 15]	13–15 Apr 2011	1,207	?	36.6 26	36.5 28	8.9 6	6.7 4	5.8 3	–	0.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 16]	11–14 Apr 2011	850	?	33.8 24/25	40.4 28/30	7.8 6	7.7 4	5.4 3/4	–	6.6
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 17][p 18]	1–14 Apr 2011	2,200	68.1	34.7 26	34.9 25	9.9 7	7.9 5	7.4 4	–	0.2
Radio Ebro[p 19][p 20]	23 Mar–1 Apr 2011	1,525	68.7	32.0 25	38.9 28	9.9 6	10.0 6	4.8 2	–	6.9
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 21][p 22]	10–31 Jan 2011	2,200	67.6	35.6 25	39.2 28	9.3 7	7.4 3	6.2 4	–	3.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 23][p 24]	30 Dec–3 Jan 2011	?	?	32.8 24/26	40.9 29/30	–	–	–	–	8.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 25]	17–21 Dec 2010	850	?	30.3 23/26	40.0 28/30	9.4 6/7	8.6 4	5.7 3	–	9.7
PP[p 26]	5 Dec 2010	?	?	33.7 26	38.2 28	9.5 7	9.0 5	4.7 1	–	4.5
A+M/DGA[p 27][p 28][p 29]	6–14 Nov 2010	2,524	?	29.7 21/23	37.9 27/29	13.0 8/10	9.1 5/6	5.3 2/3	–	8.2
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 30][p 31]	20 Sep–5 Oct 2010	2,000	?	36.8 27	35.0 25	11.5 8	9.2 5	5.2 2	–	1.8
PSOE[p 32][p 33]	6–28 Sep 2010	1,500	?	? 28	? 26	? 7	? 5	? 1	–	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 34]	21–24 May 2010	850	?	36.2 27/28	41.2 30/31	7.3 4	6.7 2/4	5.0 2	–	5.0
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 35][p 36]	5–19 Apr 2010	2,000	65.4	40.1 29	36.9 27	8.3 5	7.1 4	5.0 2	–	3.2
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 37]	8–15 Mar 2010	865	?	38.3 29	38.0 29	5.0 2	7.0 3	6.6 4	–	0.3
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	N/A	46.4	44.0 33	41.7 31	–	2.8 1	3.5 1	3.2 1	2.3
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008	N/A	75.9	46.4 35	37.0 27	5.2 3	5.0 2	2.8 0	1.1 0	9.4
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	N/A	66.5	41.1 30	31.1 23	12.1 9	8.1 4	4.1 1	–	10.0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Cortes of Aragon election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	269,729	39.69	+8.63	30	+7
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	197,189	29.02	–12.12	22	–8
	Aragonese Party (PAR)	62,193	9.15	–2.93	7	–2
	Aragonese Union (CHA)	55,932	8.23	+0.08	4	±0
	United Left of Aragon (IU)	41,874	6.16	+2.08	4	+3
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	15,667	2.31	New	0	±0
	Greens–Ecolo (V–Ecolo)^1	4,621	0.68	+0.02	0	±0
	Commitment with Aragon (CCA)	3,771	0.55	New	0	±0
	Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	2,193	0.32	New	0	±0
	Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA)	980	0.14	New	0	±0
	Aragonese Land (TA)	830	0.12	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	603	0.09	New	0	±0
	Aragon United Citizens Party (pCUA)	573	0.08	–0.29	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	525	0.08	–0.08	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	482	0.07	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	440	0.06	–0.03	0	±0
	The Independent Voice of Aragon (L'VIA)	249	0.04	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		21,678	3.19	+0.97
Total		679,529			67	±0
Valid votes		679,529	98.50	–0.81
Invalid votes		10,375	1.50	+0.81
Votes cast / turnout		689,904	67.90	+1.39
Abstentions		326,117	32.10	–1.39
Registered voters		1,016,021
Sources[7][8][9]

Popular vote PP   39.69% PSOE   29.02% PAR   9.15% CHA   8.23% IU   6.16% UPyD   2.31% Others   2.25% Blank ballots   3.19%

Seats PP   44.78% PSOE   32.84% PAR   10.45% CHA   5.97% IU   5.97%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE		PAR		CHA		IU
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Huesca	36.9	7	33.5	7	12.2	2	6.2	1	4.7	1
Teruel	37.0	6	27.4	4	16.5	3	5.1	−	6.5	1
Zaragoza	40.8	17	28.2	11	7.2	2	9.3	3	6.5	2
Total	39.7	30	29.0	22	9.2	7	8.2	4	6.2	4
Sources[7][8][9]

Aftermath

Investiture Luisa Fernanda Rudi (PP)
Ballot →		13 July 2011
Required majority →		34 out of 67 Y
	Yes • PP (30) • PAR (7)	37 / 67
	No • PSOE (22) • CHA (4) • IU (4)	30 / 67
	Abstentions	0 / 67
	Absentees	0 / 67
Sources[9]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP ganaría en Aragón, al 7% escrutado". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 22 May 2011.
2. "Las encuestas a pie de urna confirman el descalabro del PSOE y consolidan la mayoría absoluta en Madrid". ABC (in Spanish). 22 May 2011.
3. "El PP gana al PSOE por un solo diputado". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
4. "Cascos supera al PP en Asturias (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
5. "El PP doblega al PSOE a siete días de la cita electoral". La Razón (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 3 September 2011.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link)
6. "Vuelco en Cantabria (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
7. "El empate técnico entre PP y PSOE deja abierta cualquier opción". ABC (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.
8. "El PSOE pierde puntos en Aragón y Las Palmas de Gran Canaria". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 3 May 2011.
9. "Encuesta de TNS para Antena 3 y Onda Cero. Elecciones 22M. Expectativas electorales en Aragón" (PDF). TNS Demoscopia (in Spanish). 3 May 2011.
10. "Jaque mate a la coalición PSOE-PRC y a Revilla". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
11. "Una encuesta de NC Report para La Razón da al PP como fuerza más votada el 22-M sin mayoría absoluta". ForoCoches (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
12. "Barómetro electoral autonómico" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.
13. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas y municipales, 2011. Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón y Ciudad de Zaragoza (Estudio nº 2870. Marzo-Abril 2011)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
14. "El PSOE fija su objetivo: salvar los muebles". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 May 2011.
15. "Las alianzas poselectorales decidirán el Gobierno aragonés". Público (in Spanish). 18 April 2011.
16. "PP y PAR suman mayoría absoluta en Aragón (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 April 2011.
17. "PP y PSOE empatarían, pero Almunia podría gobernar con un tripartito". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 24 April 2011.
18. "El PSOE podría gobernar en Aragón con Cha e IU (Heraldo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 April 2011.
19. "PSOE y PAR sufrirían un contundente castigo electoral el 22 de mayo". Diario Aragonés (in Spanish). 17 April 2011.
20. "Pactos necesarios en Aragón (Diario Aragonés)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 18 April 2011.
21. "El PP ganaría en Aragón pero necesitaría pactar con el PAR para gobernar". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 6 February 2011.
22. "Luisa Rudi supera a Eva Almunia (Heraldo de Aragón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 6 February 2011.
23. "El PP conquista los grandes feudos de los socialistas". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 January 2011.
24. "El PP, a un paso de la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y Castilla La Mancha (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 22 January 2011.
25. "Vuelco electoral en Aragón (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 5 January 2011.
26. "El PP sería la primera fuerza política en Aragón (Abc)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 8 December 2010.
27. "El PP aragonés supera en cuatro puntos al PSOE". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 5 October 2010.
28. "El PP asigna entre 27 y 29 escaños a Rudi y hasta 23 al PSOE". 20minutos (in Spanish). 22 December 2010.
29. "PAR y PP suman mayoría holgada en Aragón (Gobierno de Aragón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 22 December 2010.
30. "Eva Almunia podría formar gobierno pactando con el PAR o con CHA e IU". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 12 October 2010.
31. "El PSOE se mantendría en el gobierno aragonés (Heraldo de Aragón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 October 2010.
32. "El PSOE sería la fuerza más votada si hoy se celebraran las elecciones autonómicas". PSOE (in Spanish). 5 October 2010.
33. "El PSOE seguiría siendo el partido más votado en Aragón (sondeo propio)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 6 October 2010.
34. "Cuarta entrega de sondeos de El Mundo: Navarra, Aragón y Canarias". Electómetro (in Spanish). 2 June 2010.
35. "El PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones y podría elegir entre PAR y CHA-IU". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2010.
36. "El PSOE volverá a ganar en las autonómicas en Aragón según un sondeo del Heraldo". Electómetro (in Spanish). 20 March 2010.
37. "El PSOE deberá decidir aliados". Público (in Spanish). 20 March 2010.

Other

1. "Statute of Autonomy of Aragon of 2007". Organic Law No. 5 of 20 April 2007. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
4. "Autonomous Community of Aragon Electoral Law of 1987". Law No. 2 of 12 February 1987. Official Gazette of Aragon (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
5. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
6. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
7. "Cortes of Aragon election results, 22 May 2011" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Aragon. 6 June 2011. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
8. "Aragon Electoral Archive. Cortes of Aragon election, 2011. Autonomous Community of Aragon". servicios.aragon.es (in Spanish). Government of Aragon. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
9. "Cortes of Aragon elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 26 September 2017.