2011 Murcian regional election

The 2011 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2011 Murcian regional election

22 May 2011
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	974,998 1.2%
Turnout	662,086 (67.9%) 0.1 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Ramón Luis Valcárcel Begoña García Retegui José Antonio Pujante Party PP PSOE IU–V–RM Leader since 5 October 1991 3 October 2010 2006 Leader's seat Three Three Three Last election 29 seats, 58.3% 15 seats, 32.0% 1 seat, 6.3% Seats won 33 11 1 Seat change 4 4 0 Popular vote 382,871 155,506 50,988 Percentage 58.8% 23.9% 7.8% Swing 0.5 pp 8.1 pp 1.5 pp
Constituency results map for the Regional Assembly of Murcia
President before election Ramón Luis Valcárcel PP Elected President Ramón Luis Valcárcel PP

The election was won by the People's Party (PP), which obtained its best result ever in the Region. With over 70% of the seats (33), it obtained thrice the number of seats of the second most voted party, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which plummeted to just below 24% and 11 seats. The PP had won its first election in 1995, and under Ramón Luis Valcárcel it had achieved an absolute majority of seats and votes in all elections held ever since.

All in all, the PP gained four seats from the PSOE, with United Left (IU) holding its solitary seat but gaining ground, increasing its % of the share from 6.3% to 7.8%. The 5% regional threshold prevented Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) from winning a seat as, although it polled 5.3% in District Three, its vote in the entire Murcian region was 4.5%.

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Region.[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Murcians abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

• I–Lorca (comprising the municipalities of Lorca, Aguilas, Puerto Lumbreras, Totana, Alhama de Murcia, Librilla, Aledo and Mazarrón).
• II–Cartagena (comprising the municipalities of Cartagena, La Unión, Fuente Alamo de Murcia, Torre-Pacheco, San Javier, San Pedro del Pinatar and Los Alcázares).
• III–Murcia (comprising the municipalities of Murcia, Alcantarilla, Beniel, Molina de Segura, Alguazas, Las Torres de Cotillas, Lorquí, Ceutí, Cieza, Abarán, Blanca, Archena, Ricote, Ulea, Villanueva del Río Segura, Ojós, Fortuna, Abanilla and Santomera).
• IV–Northwest (comprising the municipalities of Caravaca, Cehegín, Calasparra, Moratalla, Bullas, Pliego, Mula, Albudeite and Campos del Río).
• V–Plateau (comprising the municipalities of Yecla and Jumilla).

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of one seat, with the remaining 40 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[3]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[3][4][5]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 22 May 2011.[1][3][4][5]

The President of the Region had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					Lead
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	N/A	67.9	58.8 33	23.9 11	7.8 1	4.5 0	34.9
CEMOP[p 1][p 2]	5–10 May 2011	1,201	?	59.8 30	25.9 14	8.5 1	3.6 0	33.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 3]	3–10 May 2011	?	?	59.9 30/31	27.8 13/14	? 1	–	32.1
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 4]	7 May 2011	?	?	59.1 30/31	26.2 12/13	8.3 2	–	32.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 5]	25 Apr 2011	?	?	59.6 30/31	28.0 13/14	8.5 1	2.3 0	31.6
Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 6]	13–20 Apr 2011	400	?	59.6 32	26.0 12	8.5 1	4.3 0	33.6
CIS[p 7][p 8]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,491	?	61.8 31	26.0 13	6.6 1	2.3 0	35.8
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 9][p 10]	11–14 Apr 2011	500	?	61.7 31/32	24.8 11/13	7.1 1/2	–	36.9
Ikerfel/Vocento[p 11][p 12]	4–14 Apr 2011	2,300	?	59.6 31	26.9 13	6.6 1	–	32.7
IMAES/CEMOP[p 13]	25 Mar–1 Apr 2011	900	?	59.2	25.5	8.8	4.8	33.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 14]	27–29 Dec 2010	500	?	61.8 31/32	25.4 12/13	7.3 1	–	36.4
IMAES/CEMOP[p 15]	21–26 Oct 2010	600	?	63.4	21.9	8.8	4.1	41.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 16]	2–4 May 2010	700	?	62.7 31/33	26.8 12/14	4.6 0	–	35.9
TNS Demoscopia/CEMOP[p 17]	22–28 Apr 2010	603	?	61.7	24.5	7.7	4.2	37.2
Consultores CSA/La Verdad[p 18]	29 Nov 2009	1,111	?	60.0	31.3	5.2	–	28.7
Synovate/CEMOP[p 19]	26 Oct–6 Nov 2009	1,094	68.3	61.5	28.5	4.9	3.2	33.0
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	N/A	48.0	61.5	29.8	3.0	2.9	31.7
Synovate/CEMOP[p 20]	21–26 Apr 2009	608	58.3	61.1	29.0	4.4	3.4	32.1
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008	N/A	79.6	61.2	32.9	2.9	0.9	28.3
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	N/A	68.0	58.3 29	32.0 15	6.3 1	–	26.3

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	382,871	58.79	+0.49	33	+4
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	155,506	23.88	–8.12	11	–4
	United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia (IU–V–RM)	50,988	7.83	+1.58	1	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	29,279	4.50	New	0	±0
	The Greens of the Region of Murcia–Ecolo (LV–Ecolo)	7,659	1.18	New	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	3,930	0.60	+0.02	0	±0
	Party for the Regeneration of Democracy in Spain (PRDE)	1,177	0.18	New	0	±0
	Employment Business Party (PEE)	1,057	0.16	New	0	±0
	National Democracy (DN)	856	0.13	–0.02	0	±0
	Renewed United Democratic Centre (CDUR)	834	0.13	New	0	±0
	Centre and Democracy Forum (CyD)	824	0.13	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	719	0.11	New	0	±0
	State Reform of Nostradamus (REN)	621	0.10	New	0	±0
	The Phalanx (FE)	488	0.07	New	0	±0
	Republican Platform–Republican Coalition of the Region of Murcia (PRCR)	220	0.03	New	0	±0
	Citizens' Convergence of the South-East (CCSE)	182	0.03	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		14,050	2.16	+0.83
Total		651,261			45	±0
Valid votes		651,261	98.37	–0.87
Invalid votes		10,825	1.63	+0.87
Votes cast / turnout		662,086	67.91	–0.10
Abstentions		312,912	32.09	+0.10
Registered voters		974,998
Sources[6][7][8]

Popular vote PP   58.79% PSOE   23.88% IU–V–RM   7.83% UPyD   4.50% LV–Ecolo   1.18% Others   1.67% Blank ballots   2.16%

Seats PP   73.33% PSOE   24.44% IU–V–RM   2.22%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE		IU–V–RM
	%	S	%	S	%	S
One	57.2	5	26.7	2	9.6	−
Two	60.8	8	21.4	2	6.9	−
Three	59.9	15	22.0	5	7.5	1
Four	53.2	3	33.9	1	7.9	−
Five	52.3	2	29.0	1	10.2	−
Total	58.8	33	23.9	11	7.8	1
Sources[6][7][8]

Aftermath

Government formation

Investiture Ramón Luis Valcárcel (PP)
Ballot →		22 June 2011
Required majority →		23 out of 45 Y
	Yes • PP (33)	33 / 45
	No • PSOE (11) • IU–V–RM (1)	12 / 45
	Abstentions	0 / 45
	Absentees	0 / 45
Sources[8]

2014 investiture

Investiture Alberto Garre (PP)
Ballot →		8 April 2014
Required majority →		23 out of 45 Y
	Yes • PP (33)	33 / 45
	No • PSOE (10) • IU–V–RM (1)	11 / 45
	Abstentions	0 / 45
	Absentees • PSOE (1)	1 / 45
Sources[8]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP arrebataría un diputado al PSRM hasta alcanzar los 30". La Verdad (in Spanish). 14 May 2011.
2. "La encuesta del CEMOP otorga al PP 30 escaños en la Asamblea Regional". La Verdad (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
3. "El PP blinda sus feudos". La Razón (in Spanish). 16 May 2011. Archived from the original on 16 September 2011.
4. "El PP podría recuperar la alcaldía de Palma de Mallorca". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 7 May 2011.
5. "Los cuatro inexpugnables". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 26 April 2011.
6. "Barómetro electoral autonómico" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.
7. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2011. Región de Murcia (Estudio nº 2880. Marzo-Abril 2011)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
8. "El PSOE fija su objetivo: salvar los muebles". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 May 2011.
9. "El Mundo 25-27 de Abril 2011". El Mundo (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
10. "Valcárcel tendría dos tercios del Parlamento de Murcia (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 29 April 2011.
11. "El PP arrasa con Valcárcel, que amplía su hegemonía y hunde aún más al PSOE". ABC (in Spanish). 8 May 2011.
12. "Región de Murcia: PP 31 escaños, PSOE 13, IU 1 (Grupo Vocento)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 8 May 2011. Archived from the original on 11 May 2011.
13. "Barómetro Región de Murcia Primavera 2011". CEMOP (in Spanish). 12 April 2011.
14. "El PP podría acaparar hasta dos tercios de la Asamblea en Murcia (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 7 January 2011. Archived from the original on 7 March 2011.
15. "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia. Otoño 2010". CEMOP (in Spanish). 19 November 2010.
16. "Caso electoral histórico en más comunidades autónomas (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 1 June 2010. Archived from the original on 22 June 2010.
17. "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia. Primavera 2010". CEMOP (in Spanish). 4 June 2010. Archived from the original on 9 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
18. "Si hoy hubiera elecciones, el PP murciano obtendría el 60% de los votos". Consultores CSA (in Spanish). 29 November 2009.
19. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Otoño 2009". CEMOP (in Spanish). 28 November 2009. Archived from the original on 9 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
20. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Primavera 2009". CEMOP (in Spanish). 10 May 2009. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 9 May 2015.

Other

1. "Statute of Autonomy for the Region of Murcia of 1982". Organic Law No. 4 of 9 June 1982. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. "Region of Murcia Electoral Law of 1987". Law No. 2 of 24 February 1987. Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
4. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
6. "2011 Statistical Yearbook of the Region of Murcia. Volume I" (PDF). econet.carm.es (in Spanish). Regional Statistics Center of Murcia. Retrieved 7 December 2019.
7. Sierra Rodríguez, Javier (2015). El Sistema Electoral de la Región de Murcia: Balance y Perspectivas (PDF) (in Spanish). Murcia: Universidad de Murcia. Facultad de Derecho. p. 326. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
8. "Regional Assembly of Murcia elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 30 September 2017.