2015 Canarian regional election

The 2015 Canarian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of the Canary Islands. All 60 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2015 Canarian regional election

24 May 2015
All 60 seats in the Parliament of the Canary Islands 31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,661,272 5.1%
Turnout	931,876 (56.1%) 2.8 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Fernando Clavijo Patricia Hernández Australia Navarro Party CCa–PNC PSOE PP Leader since 12 September 2014 19 October 2014 6 March 2015 Leader's seat Tenerife Tenerife Gran Canaria Last election 21 seats, 24.9% 15 seats, 21.0% 21 seats, 31.9% Seats won 18 15 12 Seat change 3 0 9 Popular vote 166,979 182,006 170,129 Percentage 18.2% 19.9% 18.6% Swing 6.7 pp 1.1 pp 13.3 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Noemí Santana Román Rodríguez Casimiro Curbelo Party Podemos NCa ASG Leader since 1 April 2015 26 February 2005 6 March 2015 Leader's seat Gran Canaria Gran Canaria La Gomera Last election Did not contest 2 seats, 8.4% Did not contest Seats won 7 5 3 Seat change 7 3 3 Popular vote 133,044 93,634 5,090 Percentage 14.5% 10.2% 0.6% Swing New party 1.8 pp New party
Constituency results map for the Parliament of the Canary Islands
President before election Paulino Rivero CCa Elected President Fernando Clavijo CCa

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Canary Islands was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Canary Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Canarian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Government.[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Canary Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Canarians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 60 members of the Parliament of the Canary Islands were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 30 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Alternatively, parties could also enter the seat distribution as long as they reached 6 percent regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of El Hierro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, La Gomera, La Palma, Lanzarote and Tenerife. Each constituency was allocated a fixed number of seats: 3 for El Hierro, 7 for Fuerteventura, 15 for Gran Canaria, 4 for La Gomera, 8 for La Palma, 8 for Lanzarote and 15 for Tenerife.[1]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[3][4][5]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of the Canary Islands expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Parliament were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 24 May 2015.[1][3][4][5]

The Parliament of the Canary Islands could not be dissolved before the date of expiry of parliament except in the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot. In such a case, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a snap election called, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 31 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout						LV			PPM				U	Lead
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	N/A	56.1	18.6 12	18.2 18	19.9 15	10.2 5	–	[lower-alpha 1]	0.9 0	2.2 0	[lower-alpha 2]	14.5 7	5.9 0	0.6 3	3.6 0	1.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 1][p 2][p 3]	17 May 2015	1,150	?	20.9 12/13	19.2 14/16	17.8 12/13	8.9 4/5	–	–	–	–	[lower-alpha 2]	12.5 8/9	9.2 5/6	? 1/2	–	1.7
Hamalgama Métrica/La Opinión[p 4][p 5]	?–16 May 2015	?	61.9	18.7 11/14	19.4 15/18	18.4 13/14	8.7 4	–	–	–	–	[lower-alpha 2]	14.1 6/8	8.6 3/6	0.3 1/2	–	0.7
Perfiles/Diario de Avisos[p 6][p 7]	4–14 May 2015	3,000	?	20.0– 21.0 11/14	20.0– 21.0 16/19	18.0– 19.0 13/16	9.0– 10.0 3/5	–	–	–	–	[lower-alpha 2]	9.0– 10.0 5/6	9.0– 10.0 3/7	0.0– 1.0 2/3	4.0– 5.0 0	Tie
Focus Investigación[p 8][p 9]	20 Apr 2015	6,840	?	20.5 12/14	23.6 17/22	19.3 13/15	7.4 3/5	–	[lower-alpha 1]	–	4.7	[lower-alpha 2]	12.1 6/8	7.0 2	–	–	3.1
Perfiles/Diario de Avisos[p 10][p 11][p 12]	7–20 Apr 2015	3,000	?	19.0– 20.0 13/15	18.0– 19.0 17	18.0– 19.0 13/15	7.0– 8.0 3/5	–	–	–	–	[lower-alpha 2]	10.0– 11.0 6	10.0– 11.0 5/7	0.0– 1.0 0/1	4.0– 5.0 0	1.0
CIS[p 13][p 14]	23 Mar–19 Apr 2015	1,723	?	20.8 12/14	18.9 17	20.4 15/16	5.2 0	–	–	0.7 0	4.1 0	[lower-alpha 2]	15.8 10	10.7 4/5	–	–	0.4
TSA/Canarias7[p 15][p 16]	26 Mar–9 Apr 2015	2,779	?	19.7 11/14	18.9 14/17	18.4 11/14	11.9 5/7	–	–	–	–	[lower-alpha 2]	11.1 5/6	9.3 5/6	0.5 1	4.1 0	0.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 17][p 18][p 19]	23 Mar–9 Apr 2015	1,150	?	22.2 13/14	20.2 15/17	18.2 12/13	8.9 5/6	–	–	–	–	[lower-alpha 2]	11.8 7/8	7.1 4/5	? 1/2	–	2.0
Hamalgama Métrica/La Provincia [p 20][p 21][p 22]	10–28 Nov 2014	2,400	62.4	24.2 14	21.2 16/18	18.8 10/11	8.6 4/6	[lower-alpha 3]	2.3 0	1.6 0	2.5 0	0.5 0	18.4 9/11	–	0.6 2	–	3.0
			62.4	24.2 14/15	21.2 17/19	18.8 11/12	8.6 4/6	2.6 0	2.3 0	1.6 0	2.5 0	0.5 0	15.8 8/9	–	0.6 2	–	3.0
			62.4	24.2 14/15	21.2 17/19	19.4 13/14	8.6 4/6	2.6 0	2.3 0	1.6 0	2.5 0	0.5 0	15.8 8/9	–	–	–	3.0
Llorente & Cuenca[p 23]	31 Oct 2014	?	?	? 17/19	? 17/22	? 12/14	? 4/5	–	–	? 2	–	–	? 2/4	–	–	–	?
Celeste-Tel/Diario de Avisos[p 24]	4–14 Aug 2014	2,800	60.9	23.8 15	21.1 18	18.0 14	10.3 6	–	–	1.2 0	2.2 0	–	13.2 7	–	–	–	2.7
2014 EP election[p 25]	25 May 2014	N/A	35.0	23.4 18	12.2 10	22.2 19	–	–	[lower-alpha 1]	6.9 2	10.5 6	–	11.0 5	1.4 0	–	–	1.2
Celeste-Tel/Diario de Avisos[p 26]	5–16 Apr 2014	3,200	?	24.9 16	24.3 21	20.9 17	13.0 6	3.9 0	3.0 0	3.1 0	4.1 0	0.5 0	–	–	–	–	0.6
Focus Investigación/CC[p 27]	7 Dec 2013	3,200	?	20.5 14	22.4 19	20.0 17	? 4	–	–	–	11.3 6	–	–	–	–	–	1.9
Hamalgama Métrica/La Provincia[p 28][p 29]	25 Nov–5 Dec 2013	1,600	55.0	29.0 20	23.2 20	19.5 14/15	11.4 5/6	2.2 0	2.1 0	2.7 0	3.7 0	0.5 0	–	–	–	–	5.8
Demométrica/PSOE[p 30]	21 Nov–4 Dec 2013	2,500	?	23.3 13	24.9 21	22.7 17	10.0 6	–	–	–	6.3 3	–	–	–	–	–	1.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 31][p 32]	15 Oct–12 Nov 2013	?	?	? 17/18	? 23/25	? 14/15	? 3/4	–	–	–	? 1/2	–	–	–	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón[p 33][p 34][p 35]	15 Apr–10 May 2013	300	?	27.6 18/19	26.7 22/24	19.7 14/15	? 3/4	–	–	–	? 1/2	–	–	–	–	–	0.9
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	N/A	59.6	48.0 33	15.5 9	24.9 18	[lower-alpha 4]	–	[lower-alpha 1]	2.6 0	4.3 0	–	–	–	–	–	23.1
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	N/A	58.9	31.9 21	24.9 21	21.0 15	9.1 3	2.1 0	2.1 0	1.0 0	0.8 0	0.5 0	–	–	–	–	7.0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Parliament of the Canary Islands election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	182,006	19.89	–1.09	15	±0
	People's Party (PP)	170,129	18.59	–13.35	12	–9
	Canarian Coalition–Canarian Nationalist Party (CCa–PNC)	166,979	18.25	–6.69	18	–3
	We Can (Podemos)	133,044	14.54	New	7	+7
	New Canaries (NCa)	93,634	10.23	+1.81	5	+3
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	54,375	5.94	New	0	±0
	United (Unidos)^1	32,868	3.59	+1.66	0	–1
	Canaries Decides (IUC–LV–UP–ALTER)^2	20,155	2.20	–0.76	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	11,296	1.23	+0.93	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	7,819	0.85	–0.15	0	±0
	Canarian Nationalist Alternative (ANC)	5,635	0.62	–0.12	0	±0
	Gomera Socialist Group (ASG)	5,090	0.56	New	3	+3
	More for Telde (+xT)	3,390	0.37	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPC)	1,861	0.20	–0.06	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	1,827	0.20	+0.04	0	±0
	Vox (Vox)	1,814	0.20	New	0	±0
	Movement for the Unity of the Canarian People (MUPC)	1,777	0.19	+0.05	0	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	1,498	0.16	New	0	±0
	Municipal Assemblies of Fuerteventura (AMF)	1,447	0.16	New	0	±0
	Blank Seats (EB)	1,363	0.15	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	330	0.04	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		16,769	1.83	–0.93
Total		915,106			60	±0
Valid votes		915,106	98.20	+0.89
Invalid votes		16,770	1.80	–0.89
Votes cast / turnout		931,876	56.09	–2.82
Abstentions		729,396	43.91	+2.82
Registered voters		1,661,272
Sources[6][7]

Popular vote PSOE   19.89% PP   18.59% CCa–PNC   18.25% Podemos   14.54% NCa   10.23% C's   5.94% Unidos   3.59% Canarias Decide   2.20% PACMA   1.23% ASG   0.56% Others   3.14% Blank ballots   1.83%

Seats CCa–PNC   30.00% PSOE   25.00% PP   20.00% Podemos   11.67% NCa   8.33% ASG   5.00%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		PP		CCa–PNC		Podemos		NCa		ASG
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
El Hierro	22.1	1	17.1	−	41.8	2	6.7	−	6.5	−
Fuerteventura	17.4	2	13.6	1	28.1	3	12.2	1	6.7	−
Gran Canaria	17.5	3	20.4	4	6.2	1	17.0	3	18.4	4
La Gomera	16.4	1	10.3	−	10.5	−	8.8	−	5.9	−	43.0	3
La Palma	24.6	2	24.7	3	30.3	3	6.5	−	2.8	−
Lanzarote	21.0	2	13.0	1	22.2	3	14.7	1	8.3	1
Tenerife	22.0	4	17.5	3	27.6	6	13.4	2	3.4	−
Total	19.9	15	18.6	12	18.2	18	14.5	7	10.2	5	0.6	3

Notes

1. Within IUC.
2. Within Unidos.
3. Within Podemos.
4. Within CC.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
2. "Islas Canarias: La coalición CC-PSOE necesitará otros apoyos para gobernar". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
3. "Islas Canarias. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016.
4. "Triple empate en la recta final". La Opinión de Tenerife (in Spanish). 18 May 2015. Archived from the original on 20 May 2015.
5. "Estimación del voto al Parlamento de Canarias". La Opinión de Tenerife (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
6. "CC gana, el PP sufre el mayor retroceso y entran con fuerza tres nuevos partidos". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
7. "CANARIAS, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Instituto Perfiles". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
8. "El PP se hunde y CC sería el más votado". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
9. "Una encuesta prevé la victoria de CC y la caída del PP a 13 escaños". El Día.es (in Spanish). 21 April 2015.
10. "Podemos y C's se perfilan como dos nuevos grupos del Parlamento". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 25 April 2015.
11. "La mayoría absoluta para un pacto de dos partidos se mueve entre uno o dos escaños". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 26 April 2015.
12. "CANARIAS, Abril 2015. Sondeo Instituto Perfiles". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 April 2015.
13. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Canarias (Estudio nº 3069. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
14. "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
15. "Gobernar el Archipiélago entre dos partidos, casi imposible tras el 24-M". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 12 April 2015.
16. "CANARIAS, Abril 2015. Sondeo TSA". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 April 2015.
17. "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
18. "Islas Canarias: El binomio CC-PSOE aguanta resiste". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
19. "Islas Canarias. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016.
20. "El pacto entre Coalición Canaria y el PP logra la mayoría para gobernar en 2015". La Provincia (in Spanish). 6 December 2014.
21. "El pacto entre Coalición Canaria y el PP logra la mayoría para gobernar en 2015". La Provincia (in Spanish). 6 December 2014.
22. "Encuesta Noviembre 2014". Hamalgama Métrica (in Spanish). 6 December 2014.
23. "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
24. "CC, la fuerza con más escaños, el PP se hunde y el PSOE baja más". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 7 September 2014.
25. "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
26. "CC ganaría gracias al desplome del PP". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 2 June 2014.
27. "Un sondeo de CC refleja una victoria nacionalista, subida del PSOE y debacle del PP". Canarias7 (in Spanish). 7 December 2013. Archived from the original on 9 December 2013.
28. "PP y CC se mantienen como las fuerzas más votadas y empatan a 20 diputados". La Provincia (in Spanish). 7 December 2013.
29. "Estimación de voto al Parlamento de Canarias". La Provincia (in Spanish). 7 December 2013.
30. "Un sondeo del PSOE prevé que el PP canario perdería ocho escaños". RTVC (in Spanish). 23 February 2014.
31. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
32. "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 2 March 2015.
33. "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
34. "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
35. "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.

Other

1. "Statute of Autonomy of the Canary Islands of 1982". Organic Law No. 10 of 10 August 1982. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 September 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. "Parliament of the Canary Islands Elections Law of 2003". Law No. 7 of 20 March 2003. Official Gazette of the Canary Islands (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 September 2017.
4. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
6. "2015 Election Results". parcan.es (in Spanish). Parliament of the Canary Islands. Retrieved 30 September 2017.
7. "Parliament of the Canary Islands elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 30 September 2017.