2004 Andalusian regional election

The 2004 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 14 March 2004, to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 2004 Spanish general election.

2004 Andalusian regional election

14 March 2004
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	6,052,012 2.3%
Turnout	4,518,545 (74.7%) 6.0 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Manuel Chaves Teófila Martínez Diego Valderas Party PSOE–A PP IULV–CA Leader since 19 April 1990 20 February 1999 10 October 2000 Leader's seat Cádiz Cádiz Huelva Last election 52 seats, 44.3% 46 seats, 38.0% 6 seats, 8.1% Seats won 61 37 6 Seat change 9 9 0 Popular vote 2,260,545 1,426,774 337,030 Percentage 50.4% 31.8% 7.5% Swing 6.1 pp 6.2 pp 0.6 pp   Fourth party   Leader Antonio Ortega Party PA Leader since 19 October 1996 Leader's seat Seville Last election 5 seats, 7.4% Seats won 5 Seat change 0 Popular vote 276,674 Percentage 6.2% Swing 1.2 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election Manuel Chaves PSOE–A Elected President Manuel Chaves PSOE–A

As happened with the concurrent nationwide election, results in Andalusia were heavily influenced by political controversy derived from the 11 March train bombings in Madrid. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) exceeded all opinion poll expectations by securing a comfortable majority. Incumbent Manuel Chaves was thus able to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution of 1978 and the regional Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).[1][2]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[3]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][4]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. Election day was to take place between the thirtieth and the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 12 March 2000, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 12 March 2004. The election was required to take place no later than the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament on the condition that it was not held between 1 July and 31 August, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Tuesday, 11 May 2004.[1][2][5][6][7]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1][5][6][7]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV			Lead
2004 regional election	14 Mar 2004	N/A	74.7	50.4 61	31.8 37	7.5 6	6.2 5	0.9 0	18.6
Sigma Dos/Antena 3[p 1]	14 Mar 2004	?	?	48.2 56/59	34.4 40/43	7.1 4/7	6.5 5	–	13.8
Ipsos–Eco/RTVE[p 2]	14 Mar 2004	?	?	47.5 57/59	32.8 37/40	8.8 7/8	6.6 4/5	–	14.7
Metra Seis/PA[p 3]	27 Feb–3 Mar 2004	?	?	? 53/54	? 44	? 4	? 7/8	? 0	?
Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba[p 4]	29 Feb 2004	?	?	44.0 54/55	37.5 46/47	7.2 4/5	5.7 2/3	–	6.5
Opina/El País[p 5][p 6]	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500	?	47.0 56/59	36.5 42/46	7.0 4/6	6.0 3	–	10.5
TNS Demoscopia/Vocento[p 7][p 8]	12–20 Feb 2004	3,613	67–68	47.1 54/56	36.7 46/47	6.9 4/5	7.3 3	–	10.4
CIS[p 9][p 10]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	75.2	47.1 55	36.1 42	8.1 8	6.8 4	0.2 0	11.0
Idea Asesores/PP[p 11][p 12]	14 Feb 2004	?	?	42.0 50/51	39.8 49/51	? 5/6	? 3	? 0	2.2
Opina/CEA[p 13][p 14]	2–7 Feb 2004	3,200	?	45.5 53/54	37.5 45/46	7.5 7	6.0 3	0.5 0	8.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 15][p 16]	2–5 Feb 2004	2,500	?	44.9 54/55	37.7 47/48	7.4 4/5	5.6 2/3	–	7.2
CADPEA/UGR[p 17][p 18]	3–23 Dec 2003	3,200	72.6	45.2	37.1	7.8	6.7	0.8	8.1
Metra Seis/PA[p 19]	24 Nov 2003	?	?	? 53/54	? 44/45	? 5/6	? 4/6	? 0	?
IESA/CSIC[p 20][p 21]	1–21 Nov 2003	3,700	70	46.7	37.2	8.0	7.4	0.3	9.5
Idea Asesores/PP[p 22][p 23]	22 Sep–2 Oct 2003	3,000	?	42.8 50/51	39.5 49/50	8.5 6	5.5 2/3	0.6 0	3.3
CADPEA/UGR[p 24][p 25][p 26]	1–19 Jul 2003	3,200	74.2	45.1	37.3	8.2	6.6	0.8	7.8
2003 local elections	25 May 2003	N/A	65.6	38.2	30.9	12.8	8.8	1.5	7.3
Demoscopia/Grupo Joly[p 27][p 28]	28 Feb 2003	?	?	47.9	34.7	7.7	8.2	–	13.2
Opina/El País[p 29][p 30]	18–19 Feb 2003	1,200	?	50.5	30.0	9.5	7.5	–	20.5
Sigma Dos/ABC[p 31]	14–17 Feb 2003	1,000	?	49.8	33.7	7.5	6.1	–	16.1
Idea Asesores/PP[p 32][p 33]	3–12 Feb 2003	2,500	?	43.2 51/52	39.8 48/49	6.9 5	6.6 4	1.1 0/1	3.4
CADPEA/UGR[p 34]	31 Jan 2003	3,500	?	46.9	34.9	7.7	7.8	0.4	12.0
IESA/CSIC[p 35][p 36]	15 Nov–10 Dec 2002	3,884	70	47.9	35.2	7.5	7.1	0.5	12.7
Inner/PSOE[p 37]	10 Nov 2002	431	?	51.6	39.1	7.6	1.7	–	12.5
CIS[p 38][p 39][p 40][p 41]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	982	70.9	45.0	37.2	7.1	8.2	–	7.8
Sigma Dos/Sur[p 42][p 43]	28 Feb 2002	?	?	45.0	40.7	6.8	5.0	–	4.3
Idea Asesores/PP[p 44]	28 Feb 2002	?	?	41.9 50	40.6 49/50	7.4 4/5	5.7 3/4	2.6 0	1.3
Opina/El País[p 45][p 46]	18–19 Feb 2002	1,200	?	47.3	35.0	7.3	7.8	0.5	12.3
PSOE[p 47]	31 Jan–5 Feb 2002	1,200	?	45.7	35.5	8.6	7.9	–	10.2
IESA/CSIC[p 48][p 49]	15 Nov–10 Dec 2001	3,696	?	46.8	35.8	8.9	7.1	–	11.0
Opina/CEA[p 50][p 51]	15–27 Oct 2001	3,200	?	44.2 52/53	39.5 47/48	7.4 5/6	6.9 3/4	–	4.7
PSOE[p 52]	7–15 Jun 2001	2,045	?	50.9	34.1	–	–	–	16.8
Sigma Dos[p 31][p 53]	28 Feb 2001	?	?	43.2	40.3	7.1	7.4	–	2.9
IESA/CSIC[p 54][p 55]	10 Nov–5 Dec 2000	3,645	?	46.6	35.7	9.4	7.8	–	10.9
2000 regional election	12 Mar 2000	N/A	68.7	44.3 52	38.0 46	8.1 6	7.4 5	–	6.3

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 14 March 2004 Parliament of Andalusia election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	2,260,545	50.36	+6.04	61	+9
	People's Party (PP)	1,426,774	31.78	–6.24	37	–9
	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	337,030	7.51	–0.60	6	±0
	Andalusian Party (PA)	276,674	6.16	–1.27	5	±0
	Andalusian Forum (FA)	53,288	1.19	New	0	±0
	Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA)	42,219	0.94	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	5,670	0.13	+0.02	0	±0
	New Andalusian Green Left (NIVA)	5,065	0.11	New	0	±0
	Andalusia Assembly (A)	4,544	0.10	–0.01	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)^1	4,437	0.10	+0.07	0	±0
	Party of Precarious Workers (PTPRE)	3,321	0.07	New	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	3,130	0.07	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)	1,642	0.04	New	0	±0
	Left Assembly–Initiative for Andalusia (A–IZ)	1,334	0.03	New	0	±0
	Another Democracy is Possible (ODeP)	525	0.01	New	0	±0
	National Union (UN)	523	0.01	±0.00	0	±0
Blank ballots		62,451	1.39	+0.10
Total		4,489,172			109	±0
Valid votes		4,489,172	99.35	+0.01
Invalid votes		28,658	0.65	–0.01
Votes cast / turnout		4,518,545	74.66	+5.95
Abstentions		1,533,467	25.34	–5.95
Registered voters		6,052,012
Sources[8][9][10]

Popular vote PSOE–A   50.36% PP   31.78% IULV–CA   7.51% PA   6.16% FA   1.19% Others   1.61% Blank ballots   1.39%

Seats PSOE–A   55.96% PP   33.94% IULV–CA   5.50% PA   4.59%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE–A		PP		IULV–CA		PA
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Almería	46.1	6	42.0	5	3.8	−	4.4	−
Cádiz	47.8	8	32.0	5	6.6	1	7.3	1
Córdoba	45.9	7	30.8	4	11.2	1	6.4	1
Granada	49.0	7	35.4	5	7.1	1	4.3	−
Huelva	52.9	7	28.8	3	7.3	−	8.0	1
Jaén	53.1	7	32.4	4	6.7	1	5.7	−
Málaga	47.5	8	34.6	6	7.6	1	6.7	1
Seville	55.9	11	26.2	5	7.9	1	6.1	1
Total	50.4	61	31.8	37	7.5	6	6.2	5
Sources[8][9][10]

Aftermath

Investiture Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot →		21 April 2004
Required majority →		55 out of 109 Y
	Yes • PSOE–A (61)	61 / 109
	No • PP (36)	36 / 109
	Abstentions • IULV–CA (6) • PA (5)	11 / 109
	Absentees • PP (1)	1 / 109
Sources[8]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP puede perder de tres a seis diputados". estupidafregona.net (in Spanish). 14 March 2004.
2. "Elecciones Generales y de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Sondeo de Ipsos-EcoConsulting para RTVE - Domingo 14 de Marzo". RTVE (in Spanish). 14 March 2004. Archived from the original on 26 March 2004.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link)
3. "Rojas Marcos llama a "tirarse a la calle" si el PSOE logra la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
4. "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 29 February 2004.
5. "El PSOE recuperará en el Parlamento andaluz la mayoría absoluta que perdió en 1994". El País (in Spanish). 8 March 2004.
6. "Elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía. Intención de voto. Marzo de 2004" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 8 March 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 April 2015.
7. "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y podría gobernar con el apoyo del PA o IU". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2004.
8. "El PSOE sería el partido más votado en todas las provincias, excepto en Almería". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2004.
9. "Preelectoral elecciones generales y autonómicas de Andalucía, 2004 (Estudio nº 2555. Enero-Febrero 2004)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
10. "La mayoría absoluta pende de un hilo". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 5 March 2004.
11. "Un sondeo del PP lo sitúa a 2,2 puntos del PSOE en las elecciones". El País (in Spanish). 14 February 2004.
12. "Una encuesta del PP prevé un empate a escaños con los socialistas en Andalucía". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 14 February 2004.
13. "Una encuesta del PP prevé un empate a escaños con los socialistas en Andalucía". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 20 February 2004.
14. "Una encuesta encargada por los empresarios sitúa al PSOE a un escaño de la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 20 February 2004.
15. "Chaves roza de nuevo la mayoría absoluta que perdió en 1994". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 February 2004.
16. "Chaves ganaría las elecciones andaluzas con más de 7 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 9 February 2004.
17. "El PSOE mantiene su ventaja de ocho puntos sobre el PP para las elecciones autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 31 January 2004.
18. "El PSOE aventaja al PP en más de ocho puntos, según el Estudio de Opinión Pública de Andalucía". ABC Córdoba (in Spanish). 31 January 2004.
19. "Dos sondeos dan al PSOE el mejor resultado en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 24 November 2003.
20. "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2003 (Enero, 2004)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 19 January 2004.
21. "Una encuesta da una ventaja de 9,5 puntos al PSOE en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 20 January 2004.
22. "Un sondeo del PP le otorga los mismos escaños que al PSOE en las autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 31 October 2003.
23. "Un sondeo encargado por el PP da una ventaja de 3,3 puntos al PSOE en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 31 October 2003.
24. "El PSOE superaría en 8 puntos al PP si las autonómicas fuesen hoy". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
25. "El PP recorta en 4 puntos la distancia al PSOE, que seguiría ganando las elecciones". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
26. "La Encuesta de Opinión de Andalucía sitúa al PSOE 8 puntos sobre el PP en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
27. "Tres sondeos coinciden en la mayoría absoluta del PSOE". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 1 March 2003.
28. "Todas las encuestas del 28-F coinciden en dar mayoría absoluta al PSOE". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 March 2003.
29. "El PSOE abre una brecha de 20 puntos con el PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
30. "Encuesta febrero 2003. Andalucía" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 28 February 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005.
31. "El PSOE ganaría por mayoría absoluta y el PP sufriría un retroceso en las autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
32. "Una encuesta del PP sitúa a su partido a sólo 3,4 puntos de los socialistas". El País (in Spanish). 26 February 2003.
33. "El PP admite que su principal déficit para ganar a los socialistas está en Sevilla". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 26 February 2003.
34. "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 February 2003.
35. "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2002 (Diciembre, 2002)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 21 February 2003.
36. "El barométro del IESA da una ventaja de 12,7 puntos al PSOE sobre el PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 22 February 2003.
37. "Un estudio electoral da al PSOE 12,5 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". El País (in Spanish). 10 November 2002.
38. "Instituciones y autonomías, II. CA de Andalucía (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
39. "El PP, partido más votado en diez Comunidades Autónomas" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
40. "El PSOE volvería a ganar las autonómicas con 7,8 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
41. "El PP ganaría las autonómicas en diez Comunidades y el PSOE en cuatro, según el CIS". ABC (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
42. "El PSOE, satisfecho por su primer puesto en los sondeos y el PP, por acortar distancia". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 March 2002.
43. "Todas las encuestas dan vencedor al PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 1 March 2002.
44. "Un sondeo del PP augura un empate a escaños con el PSOE en Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2002.
45. "El PSOE aventaja en 12,3 puntos al PP en intención directa de voto en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2002.
46. "Informe. Intención de voto Andalucía. Febrero 2002" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 28 February 2002. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005.
47. "Un sondeo del PSOE andaluz señala una ventaja de 10 puntos sobre el PP en intención de voto". El País (in Spanish). 9 February 2002.
48. "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2001 (Noviembre-Diciembre, 2001)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 22 February 2002.
49. "Un sondeo del IESA da 11 puntos de ventaja al PSOE sobre el PP". El País (in Spanish). 23 February 2002.
50. "El 70,7 por ciento de los andaluces aprueba el trabajo de la Junta, según el Instituto de Estudios de la Sociedad Andaluza". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 21 November 2001.
51. "Un sondeo de la CEA otorga al PSOE una nueva victoria electoral". El País (in Spanish). 21 November 2001.
52. "El PSOE dice que aventaja al PP en 16,8 puntos, según su encuesta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 July 2001.
53. "Mayoría absoluta para el PSOE en Andalucía, según un sondeo de Sigma 2 para ABC". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
54. "El PSOE saca 11 puntos de ventaja al PP, según un sondeo del IESA". El País (in Spanish). 25 February 2001.
55. "El 70,7 por ciento de los andaluces aprueba el trabajo de la Junta, según el Instituto de Estudios de la Sociedad Andaluza". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 February 2003.

Other

1. "Ley Orgánica 6/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía". Organic Law No. 2 of 30 December 1981. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
2. "Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
3. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Ley 6/1983, de 21 de Julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma". Law No. 6 of 21 July 1983. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
6. "Ley 1/1990, de 30 de enero, por la que se modifica la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma". Law No. 1 of 30 January 1990. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
7. "Ley 6/1994, de 18 de mayo, de Modificación de la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma, y la Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 6 of 18 May 1994. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
8. "Parliament of Andalusia elections since 1982". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
9. "Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 2004. Andalusia totals". juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Regional Government of Andalusia. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
10. "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 14 March 2004" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Central Electoral Commission. 30 March 2004. Retrieved 25 September 2017.