2019 Ceuta Assembly election

The 2019 Ceuta Assembly election, was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 7th Assembly of the Autonomous City of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

2019 Ceuta Assembly election

26 May 2019
All 25 seats in the Assembly of Ceuta 13 seats needed for a majority
Registered	62,561 1.3%[1]
Turnout	34,118 (54.5%) 6.5 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Juan Jesús Vivas Manuel Hernández Peinado Juan Sergio Redondo Party PP PSOE Vox Leader since October 1999 25 July 2015 22 April 2019 Last election 13 seats, 45.7% 4 seats, 14.0% 0 seats, 1.2% Seats won 9 7 6 Seat change 4 3 6 Popular vote 10,527 8,658 7,566 Percentage 31.1% 25.6% 22.4% Swing 14.6 pp 11.6 pp 21.2 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Fátima Hamed Hossain Mohamed Alí Javier Varga Party MDyC Caballas Cs Leader since 27 October 2014 14 March 2011 23 February 2015 Last election 3 seats, 11.2% 4 seats, 13.3% 1 seat, 6.0% Seats won 2 1 0 Seat change 2 3 1 Popular vote 2,353 2,105 1,537 Percentage 7.0% 6.2% 4.5% Swing 4.2 pp 7.1 pp 1.5 pp
Mayor-President before election Juan Jesús Vivas PP Elected Mayor-President Juan Jesús Vivas PP

Electoral system

The Assembly of Ceuta is the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta. Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allows Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.[2][3][4]

The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[2][3][4]

The Mayor-President is indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause requires that mayoral candidates earn the vote of an absolute majority of members, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly shall be automatically appointed to the post. In case of a tie, a toss-up would determine the appointee.[4]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in Ceuta. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[2][3]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 13 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				MDyC		PDSC					Lead
2019 Assembly election	26 May 2019	N/A	56.9	31.1 9	25.6 7	6.2 1	7.0 2	4.5 0	1.0 0	[lower-alpha 1]	22.4 6	[lower-alpha 1]	1.5 0	5.5
La Verdad de Ceuta[p 1]	20 May 2019	?	?	? 6/7	? 5/6	? 0/1	? 5/6	? 0/1	? 0	[lower-alpha 1]	? 7/8	[lower-alpha 1]	? 0	?
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	N/A	64.0	21.4 6	36.3 10	–	–	12.0 3	–	[lower-alpha 1]	24.0 6	[lower-alpha 1]	4.8 0	14.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2]	22 Feb–7 Apr 2019	?	?	30.0 9	20.1 6	5.1 1	6.5 1	9.1 2	–	[lower-alpha 1]	22.4 6	[lower-alpha 1]	2.3 0	7.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3]	22 Feb–31 Mar 2019	?	?	29.4 9	20.3 6	5.1 1	6.4 1	9.4 2	–	[lower-alpha 1]	22.6 6	[lower-alpha 1]	2.3 0	6.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4]	22 Feb–24 Mar 2019	?	?	29.2 8	21.0 6	5.3 1	6.7 2	8.6 2	–	[lower-alpha 1]	22.7 6	[lower-alpha 1]	2.3 0	6.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 5]	22 Feb–17 Mar 2019	?	?	28.4 8	20.0 5	5.0 1	6.6 1	7.2 2	–	[lower-alpha 1]	27.0 8	[lower-alpha 1]	2.3 0	1.4
La Verdad de Ceuta[p 6]	18 Mar 2019	3,423	?	23.0 6/7	17.3 5	6.4 1	9.9 2/3	1.2 0	–	–	36.5 10/11	1.1 0	–	13.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 7]	22 Feb–10 Mar 2019	?	?	28.0 8	19.9 5	5.1 1	6.6 1	7.5 2	–	[lower-alpha 1]	27.0 8	[lower-alpha 1]	2.4 0	1.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 8]	22 Feb–3 Mar 2019	?	?	28.1 8	19.6 5	4.9 0	6.7 2	8.0 2	–	[lower-alpha 1]	26.9 8	[lower-alpha 1]	2.4 0	1.2
Sigma Dos/Ceuta Ahora[p 9]	14–19 Dec 2018	600	?	34.7 10	18.5 5	6.3 1	6.6 1/2	9.4 2	–	[lower-alpha 1]	19.1 5/6	[lower-alpha 1]	2.8 0	15.6
La Verdad de Ceuta[p 10]	22 Nov 2018	1,725	?	36.1 10	20.8 6	7.5 2	10.4 3	3.1 0	–	0.2 0	13.4 4	0.4 0	–	15.3
SyM Consulting[p 11]	7–9 Sep 2018	518	47.0	40.5 11/12	22.6 6	14.2 3/4	7.7 2	9.6 2	1.9 0	–	–	–	–	17.9
SyM Consulting[p 12]	24–25 Apr 2018	537	40.5	37.9 10/11	16.6 4/5	17.6 5	8.7 2	12.6 3	1.3 0	–	–	–	–	20.3
SyM Consulting[p 13][p 14]	8–9 Feb 2018	497	43.1	42.7 11/12	16.1 4/5	15.5 4	8.4 2	11.5 3	1.3 0	–	–	–	–	26.6
La Verdad de Ceuta[p 15]	14 May 2017	8,088	?	41.5 12	13.8 4	10.4 3	10.3 3	10.2 2	2.1 0	1.2 0	–	6.9 1	–	27.7
2016 general election	26 Jun 2016	N/A	50.7	51.9 14	22.6 6	[lower-alpha 1]	–	11.5 3	–	[lower-alpha 1]	0.5 0	[lower-alpha 1]	10.8 2	29.3
2015 general election	20 Dec 2015	N/A	54.4	44.9 12	23.1 6	[lower-alpha 2]	–	13.3 3	–	1.3 0	–	14.1 4	–	21.8
2015 Assembly election	24 May 2015	N/A	48.0	45.7 13	14.0 4	13.3 4	11.2 3	6.0 1	1.8 0	1.6 0	1.2 0	–	–	31.7

Results

← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Assembly of Ceuta election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	10,527	31.12	–14.62	9	–4
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	8,658	25.60	+11.56	7	+3
	Vox (Vox)	7,566	22.37	+21.15	6	+6
	Movement for Dignity and Citizenship (MDyC)	2,353	6.96	–4.21	2	–1
	Caballas Coalition (Caballas)	2,105	6.22	–7.05	1	–3
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)	1,537	4.54	–1.47	0	–1
	United We Can–United Left–Equo (Podemos–IU–Equo)^1	505	1.49	–0.09	0	±0
	Coalition for Ceuta–Democratic and Social Party of Ceuta (CPC–PDSC)	329	0.97	–0.85	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	42	0.12	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		204	0.60	–1.00
Total		33,826			25	±0
Valid votes		33,826	99.14	+0.61
Invalid votes		292	0.86	–0.61
Votes cast / turnout		34,118	54.54	+6.51
Abstentions		28,443	45.46	–6.51
Registered voters		62,561
Sources[5]

Popular vote PP   31.12% PSOE   25.60% Vox   22.37% MDyC   6.96% Caballas   6.22% Cs   4.54% Unidas Podemos   1.49% Others   1.10% Blank ballots   0.60%

Seats PP   36.00% PSOE   28.00% Vox   24.00% MDyC   8.00% Caballas   4.00%

Aftermath

Investiture
Ballot →		15 June 2019
Required majority →		13 out of 25
	Juan Jesús Vivas (PP) • PP (9)	9 / 25	Y
	Juan Sergio Redondo (Vox) • Vox (6)	6 / 25	N
	Blank ballots • PSOE (7) • MDyC (2) • Caballas (1)	10 / 25
	Absentees	0 / 25
Sources[6]

Notes

1. Within Unidas Podemos.
2. Within Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "La última encuesta de La Verdad de Ceuta vuelve a situar a VOX como primera fuerza política el próximo 26M". La Verdad de Ceuta (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
2. "ElectoPanel municipal (12A): muchas ciudades pendientes de un concejal". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
3. "ElectoPanel municipales (4A): Madrid en Pie no consigue entrar en el Ayuntamiento". Electomanía (in Spanish). 4 April 2019.
4. "ElectoPanel Municipales (28M). Mayorías ajustadas en varias ciudades". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 March 2019.
5. "ElectoPanel para municipales (21M): situación estable en la última semana". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 March 2019.
6. "VOX, el gran ganador de la última encuesta sobre intención de voto de La Verdad de Ceuta". La Verdad de Ceuta (in Spanish). 18 March 2019.
7. "ElectoPanel grandes áreas metropolitanas 14M: la izquierda resiste en Valencia, Madrid se le escapa a Carmena". Electomanía (in Spanish). 14 March 2019.
8. "ElectoPanel municipal: distintas mayorías posibles y mucha igualdad en varias ciudades". Electomanía (in Spanish). 7 March 2019.
9. "PP 10 diputados, VOX 5-6, PSOE 5, Cs 2, MDyC 1-2 y Caballas 1 formarían el Pleno de la Asamblea". Ceuta Ahora (in Spanish). 23 December 2018.
10. "VOX tendría la llave del próximo Gobierno en la ciudad, según la última encuesta de 'La Verdad de Ceuta'". La Verdad de Ceuta (in Spanish). 22 November 2018.
11. "Estimación oleada Septiembre 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 24 September 2018.
12. "Estimación oleada Abril 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
13. "Estimación oleada Febrero 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 15 February 2018.
14. "CEUTA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting, Febrero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 February 2018.
15. "Un sondeo de "La Verdad de Ceuta" evidencia que en las próximas autonómicas ganaría el PP, pero con 12 escaños". La Verdad de Ceuta (in Spanish). 14 May 2017.

Other

1. "Elecciones municipales, autonómicas y al Parlamento Europeo de 26 de mayo de 2019" (PDF). ine.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 April 2019.
2. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 April 2018.
3. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
4. "Statute of Autonomy of Ceuta of 1995". Law No. 1 of 13 March 1995. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 April 2018.
5. "Local election results, 26 May 2019, in Toledo, Valencia, Valladolid, Zamora, Zaragoza, Ceuta and Melilla provinces" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 30 September 2019.
6. "Juan Jesús Vivas (PP),investido presidente de Ceuta sin apoyo de otros grupos". eldiario.es. 15 June 2019. Retrieved 28 July 2019.