2015 Asturian regional election

The 2015 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2015 Asturian regional election
24 May 2015
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered988,057 0.2%
Turnout551,192 (55.8%)
4.7 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Javier Fernández Mercedes Fernández Emilio León
Party PSOE PP Podemos
Leader since 23 October 2010 14 February 2012 1 April 2015
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 17 seats, 32.1% 10 seats, 21.5% Did not contest
Seats won 14 11 9
Seat change 3 1 9
Popular vote 143,851 117,319 103,571
Percentage 26.5% 21.6% 19.1%
Swing 5.6 pp 0.8 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Gaspar Llamazares Cristina Coto Nicanor García
Party IU/IX FAC C's
Leader since 24 January 2015 21 February 2015 18 April 2015
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 5 seats, 13.8% 12 seats, 24.8% Did not contest
Seats won 5 3 3
Seat change 0 9 3
Popular vote 64,868 44,480 38,687
Percentage 11.9% 8.2% 7.1%
Swing 1.9 pp 16.6 pp New party
Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
President before election

Javier Fernández
PSOE

 Elected President

Javier Fernández
PSOE

Final results showed the Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA–PSOE) with 26.5% of the vote (14 seats), the People's Party (PP) in second with 21.6% (11 seats) and newly created Podemos (Spanish for "We can") in a close third with 19.1% (9 seats). The Asturias Forum (FAC), which had ruled the community in the 2011–12 period, saw a dramatic loss of support, falling to fifth place with 8.2% and 3 seats, overcame by a stagnant United Left (IU/IX) and in a draw with up-and-coming Citizens (C's).

Socialist leader Javier Fernández was able to retain the regional government thanks to the support of United Left, after PP and FAC joined their votes against the PSOE and with Podemos supporting its own candidate.

Overview

Background

Following the 2012 election, regional PSOE leader Javier Fernández was able to be elected as President of Asturias thanks to a confidence and supply agreement with both IU-IX and UPyD. However, in November 2013 both parties announced they were withdrawing support from the government after the PSOE voted down a proposal to reform the autonomous community's electoral law (including, among other things, a removal of the three district-division of the Principality), leaving the regional government in minority.[1][2] To prevent a parliamentary deadlock, however, the PSOE unexpectedly reached an agreement with the PP to obtain its parliamentary support to avoid political instability,[3][4][5] in what was dubbed by opponents as the duerno agreement.[6]

Incumbent Socialist Javier Fernández announced his intention to run for re-election to a second term in office, being chosen as his party's candidate without opposition.[7] Opposition leader Francisco Álvarez-Cascos announced on 12 February 2015 that he would not stand again as Asturias Forum's candidate,[8] with Cristina Coto being elected as the party's candidate and leader the following month.[9][10] Mercedes Fernández was elected as People's Party candidate for a second consecutive time,[11] while Gaspar Llamazares was proclaimed as the candidate for United Left after a primary election held on 24 January 2015.[12]

Finally, Ignacio Prendes, the only deputy of Union, Progress and Democracy, was expelled from the party and will contest as the candidate of Citizens (C's).[13] Adán Fernández will substitute him as the candidate of the party.[14]

The election will be influenced by the surge of two rising parties in opinion polls: Podemos (Spanish for We can), a left-wing party created in January 2014 to contest the 2014 European Parliament election and whose success brought it to establish itself as a fully-fledged party at the national level, and centrist Citizens (C's), whose rise in opinion polls early in 2015 and its success in the 2015 Andalusian election has brought it at the center of media attention. Emilio León will stand as Podemos' candidate after being elected in a primary election process held during the last weeks of March,[15] Citizens will also run in the election,[16] despite an early controversy resulted in the resignation of the former party's candidate Francisco Gambarte and the party staff considering whether to stand or not in the region.[17] Nicanor García will be the candidate, while Ignacio Prendes, expelled from UPyD, will be the second person in the list.[18]

On 21 April, it was confirmed that 19 parties will take part in the election.[19]

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Principality.[20] Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Asturians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[21]

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[22] Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[23]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[23][24][25]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous ordinary election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 24 May 2015.[20][23][24][25]

The President of the Principality had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[20]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Results

Overall
← Summary of the 24 May 2015 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 143,85126.48–5.62 14–3
People's Party (PP) 117,31921.59+0.06 11+1
We Can (Podemos) 103,57119.06New 9+9
United Left of Asturias (IU/IX) 64,86811.94–1.83 5±0
Forum of Citizens (FAC) 44,4808.19–16.61 3–9
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 38,6877.12New 3+3
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 4,3580.80–2.94 0–1
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 3,9750.73+0.44 0±0
Blank Seats (EB) 3,4420.63–0.19 0±0
Vox (Vox) 3,2260.59New 0±0
Equo (Equo) 1,9860.37–0.14 0±0
Andecha Astur (Andecha) 9900.18+0.05 0±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 8880.16±0.00 0±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 4170.08New 0±0
Citizens' Democratic Renewal Movement (RED) 3640.07New 0±0
Republican Social Movement (MSR) 3010.06+0.02 0±0
Asturian Renewal Union (URAS) 2490.05–0.04 0±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 590.01New 0±0
Humanist Party (PH) 430.01±0.00 0±0
Blank ballots 10,2711.89+0.46
Total 543,345 45±0
Valid votes 543,34598.58–0.57
Invalid votes 7,8471.42+0.57
Votes cast / turnout 551,19255.79+4.64
Abstentions 436,86544.21–4.64
Registered voters 988,057
Sources[26][27][28][29]
Popular vote
PSOE
 
 26.48%
PP
 
 21.59%
Podemos
 
 19.06%
IU/IX
 
 11.94%
FAC
 
 8.19%
C's
 
 7.12%
Others
 
 3.74%
Blank ballots
 
 1.89%
Seats
PSOE
 
 31.11%
PP
 
 24.44%
Podemos
 
 20.00%
IU/IX
 
 11.11%
FAC
 
 6.67%
C's
 
 6.67%

Distribution by constituency
Constituency PSOE PP Podemos IU/IX FAC C's
% S % S % S % S % S % S
Central 24.6 9 20.4 7 20.3 7 13.1 5 7.8 3 7.9 3
Eastern 33.0 2 26.9 2 13.2 1 6.0 − 12.3 − 4.1 −
Western 35.5 3 26.6 2 14.2 1 7.7 − 8.3 − 3.3 −
Total 26.5 14 21.6 11 19.1 9 11.9 5 8.2 3 7.1 3
Sources[26][27][28][29]

Aftermath
Further information: Javier Fernández government § Second Fernández government (2015–2019)
Investiture
Ballot → 1 July 2015 3 July 2015 21 July 2015
Required majority → 23 out of 45 Simple Simple
14 / 45
 N
14 / 45
 N
19 / 45
 Y
11 / 45
 N
14 / 45
 N
14 / 45
 N
9 / 45
 N Eliminated
11 / 45
17 / 45
12 / 45
Absentees
0 / 45
0 / 45
0 / 45
Sources[29][30][31][32]

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "Encuestas y resultados – elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  2. "Fragmentación a izquierda y derecha". ABC (in Spanish). 22 May 2015.
  3. "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. "El PSOE gana en Asturias con 14–15 diputados y Ciudadanos irrumpe por encima de Podemos". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. "Pronóstico electoral en el Principado". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  6. "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  7. "Principado de Asturias: El feudo socialista decae y da paso a un mosaico de fuerzas políticas". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  8. "Principado de Asturias. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  9. "Encuesta sobre la situación política en Asturias en el marco de las elecciones autonómicas del 24 de Mayo de 2015" (PDF). Podemos Asturias (in Spanish). 16 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2015.
  10. "La mitad de los votantes piensa que Podemos será el partido que más apoyo gane en Asturias". Público (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
  11. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Principado de Asturias (Estudio nº 3067. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  12. "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  13. "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  14. "Principado de Asturias: El PSOE repite... o no". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  15. "Principado de Asturias. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  16. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 28 March 2015. Archived from the original on 29 March 2015. Retrieved 28 March 2015.
  17. "Barómetro Diciembre 2014: Asturias necesitará un "pacto" de gobierno". eldigitaldeasturias.com (in Spanish). 5 December 2014.
  18. "P. DE ASTURIAS, Noviembre 2014. Sondeo 'El Digital de Asturias'". Electograph (in Spanish). 11 December 2014.
  19. "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  20. "El PP de Asturias a la baja, Pablo Iglesias "esperanza ciudadana", Cascos político asturiano con mejor nota". eldigitaldeasturias.com (in Spanish). 3 November 2014.
  21. "P. DE ASTURIAS, Agosto 2014. Asturbarómetro". Electograph (in Spanish). 7 November 2014.
  22. "Una encuesta dibuja un inédito panorama político en Asturias de cara a las autonómicas". RTPA (in Spanish). 23 July 2014.
  23. "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  24. "Las grietas vuelven a asomar en el PP". El Comercio (in Spanish). 12 January 2014.
  25. "PRINCIPADO DE ASTURIAS, Enero 2014. Sondeo del PP". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 January 2014.
  26. "BCM Asturias. Sondeo Electoral elecciones autonómicas por circunscripciones. Resultados oleada de Noviembre 2013". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 3 December 2013.
  27. "PRINCIPADO DE ASTURIAS, Noviembre 2013. SyM Consulting". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 December 2013.
  28. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  29. "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 22 February 2015.
  30. "La encuesta electoral que el Partido Popular oculta a los asturianos". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 11 May 2013.
  31. "El PP se hunde, y el PSOE y Foro Asturias empatarían si hoy se celebrasen elecciones". AsturiasDiario (in Spanish). 11 May 2013.
  32. "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  33. "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  34. "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
Other
  1. "UPyD breaks with the PSOE in Asturias and leaves the regional government in minority". El País (in Spanish). 1 November 2013.
  2. "UPyD and IU announce the rupture of the legislature pact with the PSOE in Asturias". ABC (in Spanish). 1 November 2013.
  3. "PSOE switches allies and relies on the PP to keep governing Asturias". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 19 March 2014.
  4. "PSOE and PP agree the budget in Asturias" (in Spanish). InfoLibre. 17 November 2014.
  5. "PSOE and PP close the legislature with an unforeseen budgetary agrement in Asturias" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 28 December 2014.
  6. "García-Pumarino denounces that the 'duerno agreement' "is more alive than ever"". El Comercio (in Spanish). 5 October 2014.
  7. "Javier Fernández (PSOE) stand for re-election in Asturias: "I have strength, ambition and am not afraid"" (in Spanish). El Diario. 20 September 2014.
  8. "Cascos renounces to head his party's candidacy in the regional election". El Comercio (in Spanish). 12 February 2015.
  9. "Cristina Coto will opt to relieve Álvarez-Cascos at the head of FAC". El Comercio (in Spanish). 16 February 2015.
  10. "Cristina Coto will be Forum's President without the support from the Gijon and Siero sectors". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 22 February 2015.
  11. "Mercedes Fernández, PP candidate to the Principality's Presidency". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 6 March 2015.
  12. "Gaspar Llamazares elected as IU candidate to the presidency of the Principality". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 25 January 2015.
  13. "Prendes will be the Citizens candidate after resigning to its seat for UPyD". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 10 April 2015.
  14. "Adán Fernández, new candidate of UPyD in the Principality". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 18 April 2015.
  15. "Emilio León, Podemos' candidate to the presidency of Asturias". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 1 April 2015.
  16. "Uncertainty marks electoral candidacies in Asturias". El Comercio (in Spanish). 4 April 2015.
  17. "Citizens will repeat primaries in Asturias after its candidate's renounce" (in Spanish). El Confidencial Autonómico. 13 March 2015.
  18. "Nicanor García será el candidato autonómico de Ciudadanos con Prendes como número dos". El Comercio (in Spanish). 18 April 2015.
  19. "Los partidos que darán la batalla electoral". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 21 April 2015.
  20. "Statute of Autonomy for Asturias of 1981". Organic Law No. 7 of 30 December 1981. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  21. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  22. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  23. "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Elections System Law of 1986". Law No. 14 of 26 December 1986. Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  24. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  25. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  26. "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Asturias. 2 June 2015. Retrieved 8 December 2019.
  27. "Electoral Results. General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. 10th Legislature (2015–2019)". jgpa.es (in Spanish). General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  28. "Electoral Results. 2015". sadei.es (in Spanish). SADEI. Retrieved 27 September 2017.
  29. "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 27 September 2017.
  30. "PSOE y Podemos mitigan las discrepancias en Asturias ante la votación definitiva" (in Spanish). EFE. 1 July 2015. Retrieved 2 October 2018.
  31. "Foro Asturias cambia su voto y deja a Fernández sin el apoyo suficiente para la presidencia". ABC (in Spanish). 3 July 2015. Retrieved 2 October 2018.
  32. "Las abstenciones de Podemos y Ciudadanos desbloquean la reelección de Javier Fernández". ABC (in Spanish). 21 July 2015. Retrieved 2 October 2018.
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