2011 Asturian regional election

The 2011 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2011 Asturian regional election

22 May 2011
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias 23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	987,305 0.6%
Turnout	609,072 (61.7%) 0.1 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Francisco Álvarez Cascos Javier Fernández Isabel Pérez-Espinosa Party FAC PSOE PP Leader since 18 January 2011 23 October 2010 29 December 2010 Leader's seat Central Central Central Last election Did not contest 21 seats, 42.0% 20 seats, 41.5% Seats won 16 15 10 Seat change 16 6 10 Popular vote 178,031 179,619 119,767 Percentage 29.7% 29.9% 20.0% Swing New party 12.1 pp 21.5 pp   Fourth party   Leader Jesús Iglesias Party IU–LV Leader since 2007 Leader's seat Central Last election 4 seats, 9.7% Seats won 4 Seat change 0 Popular vote 61,703 Percentage 10.3% Swing 0.6%
Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
President before election Vicente Álvarez Areces PSOE Elected President Francisco Álvarez Cascos FAC

Except for the 1995-1999 legislature, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) had governed the autonomous community since the first election in 1983. However, in the 2011 election, the Asturias Forum (FAC), a split from the People's Party (PP), won the most seats despite PSOE obtaining more votes. The FAC was established on 19 January 2011 by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, former Deputy Prime Minister of Spain, after failing to be selected as PP's candidate. FAC gains came at the expense of the PP and the PSOE, but while PSOE's collapse had been predicted in early opinion polls, the PP had been widely expected to make strong gains before Cascos' split, instead scoring the worst result of its history. The Asturian Bloc (BA) had terminated its coalition with United Left (IU) and the Asturian Greens (LVA) in August 2010 and run separately, failing to win any seats. IU and the Greens maintained their coalition and retained their existing four seats.

Vicente Álvarez Areces, incumbent since 1999, did not seek re-election. As in Asturias it is not allowed for parties to vote against a proposed presidential candidate (instead being forced to either abstain or vote a candidate of their own), on July 2011, the PSOE and PP announced that they would abstain in the investiture voting of Álvarez Cascos, who thus became the new President at the head of a minority administration.[1]

The resulting government, however, was not able to gather legislative support to approve its 2012 regional budget, with both PP and PSOE blocking the vote, resulting in a fresh election being held in March 2012.

Overview

Background

On 7 July 2010, the President of Asturias, Vicente Álvarez Areces, announced that he would not seek re-election.[2] Following the announcement, the General Secretary of the Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA), PSOE's regional branch, declared that he would seek the nomination to become the presidential candidate.[3] His candidacy, supported by the FSA Executive Committee, was ratified by the PSOE Federal Committee on 23 October 2010.[4]

United Left, coalition partner of the PSOE, decided that their regional General Coordinator, Jesús Sánchez Iglesias, would be its presidential candidate for a second consecutive time. His candidacy was supported by the IU Asturian Presidency in November 2010[5] and ratified by IU's political council in Asturias on 27 November 2010.[6]

The Asturian Bloc ended its coalition with United Left and the Greens in October 2010 and contested the election in a joint electoral list with the Asturian Nationalist Unity (UNA) under the label Bloc for Asturias-UNA: Commitment for Asturias. BA's sole sitting deputy, Rafael Palacios, was their presidential candidate.[7]

Oviedo city councillor Isabel Pérez-Espinosa was selected by the People's Party as its presidential candidate on 29 December 2010.[8] This led to a split within the Asturian PP as former Deputy Prime Minister Francisco Álvarez-Cascos had been seeking the nomination. He resigned from the PP and formed the Asturias Forum, running to the election on his own.[9]

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Principality.[10] Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Asturians abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[11]

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[12] Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

• Central District (comprising the municipalities of Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco).
• Eastern District (comprising the municipalities of Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa).
• Western District (comprising the municipalities of Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros de Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza).

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[13]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[13][14][15]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 22 May 2011.[10][13][14][15]

The President of the Principality had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[10]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				URAS PAS			Lead
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	N/A	61.7	29.9 15	20.0 10	10.3 4	0.5 0	2.4 0	29.7 16	0.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1]	10–12 May 2011	500	?	33.4 17	24.2 11/12	9.1 3/4	–	–	25.8 12/14	7.6
Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 2][p 3]	4–11 May 2011	408	?	25.4 16	15.1 6	9.4 3	–	–	42.8 20	17.4
NC Report/La Razón[p 4][p 5]	3–10 May 2011	?	?	36.3 17	28.4 13/14	? 5	–	–	? 9/10	7.9
Ipsos/La Nueva España[p 6]	29 Apr–9 May 2011	2,800	62.0	32.1 16/17	30.1 15/16	10.9 4	–	–	19.7 9	2.0
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 7][p 8]	29 Apr–2 May 2011	500	?	31.2 14/16	29.8 14/15	10.4 4/6	–	–	22.5 10/11	1.4
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 9][p 10]	29 Apr–2 May 2011	1,200	?	36.8 18/19	20.9 10/11	9.2 3/4	–	2.7 0/1	25.5 12/13	11.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 11][p 12]	25 Apr 2011	?	?	? 18	24.3 12	? 4	–	–	23.7 11	?
Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 13]	13–20 Apr 2011	400	?	31.1 15	23.2 12	11.2 5	1.3 0	–	26.3 13	4.8
CIS[p 14][p 15]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,188	?	35.7 19	32.2 16	8.2 3	–	1.9 0	15.0 7	3.5
Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 16][p 17]	11–16 Apr 2011	408	?	24.5 13/15	15.3 6/7	9.7 4	–	–	43.1 19/21	18.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 18]	11–14 Apr 2011	500	?	33.6 17	23.1 11/12	11.4 4	–	–	24.8 12/13	8.8
Ikerfel/Vocento[p 19][p 20]	4–11 Apr 2011	2,200	?	30.1 14/16	29.6 14/15	9.4 3	–	2.8 1	23.8 11/12	0.5
Asturbarómetro[p 21]	4–8 Apr 2011	?	?	23.5 12/14	14.5 6/7	9.5 4	4.7 1	–	42.5 18/20	19.0
GAD/COPE[p 22][p 23]	5–7 Apr 2011	400	?	32.0 15	26.5 13	11.5 5	0.9 0	–	25.2 12	5.5
Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 24][p 25]	12–19 Jan 2011	?	?	21.4	18.0	9.6	2.2	2.4	42.2	20.8
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 26]	3 Jan 2011	500	?	27.3 13/15	22.5 10	8.1 3	–	–	36.5 17/19	9.2
			?	37.2 18/19	46.8 23/24	7.6 3	–	–	–	9.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 27]	30 Dec–3 Jan 2011	?	?	35.7 18	45.2 23	? 4	–	–	–	9.5
Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 28][p 29]	31 Oct 2010	?	?[lower-roman 1]	41.6	37.8	9.7	2.8	2.2	–	3.8
			?[lower-roman 2]	35.5	47.2	9.0	2.1	2.2	–	11.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 30]	22–24 May 2010	700	?	36.4 18/19	46.8 23/24	8.4 3	–	–	–	10.4
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 31]	8–15 Mar 2010	866	?	40.2 20/21	43.3 21/22	7.7 3	–	2.9 0	–	3.1
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	N/A	44.1	44.1 22	42.0 20	5.6 2	–	4.1 1	–	2.1
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008	N/A	71.3	46.9 22	41.6 20	7.2 3	–	1.4 0	–	5.3
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	N/A	61.6	42.0 21	41.5 20	9.7 4	2.2 0	–	–	0.5
Isabel Pérez-Espinosa as PP candidate hypothesis. Francisco Álvarez-Cascos as PP candidate hypothesis.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	179,619	29.92	–12.12	15	–6
	Forum of Citizens (FAC)	178,031	29.66	New	16	+16
	People's Party (PP)	119,767	19.95	–21.55	10	–10
	United Left of Asturias–The Greens (IU–LV)	61,703	10.28	+0.59	4	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	14,640	2.44	New	0	±0
	Independents of Asturias (IDEAS)	6,380	1.06	New	0	±0
	Bloc for Asturias–Asturian Nationalist Unity: Commitment for Asturias (BA–UNA)	6,191	1.03	New	0	±0
	Left Front (FDLI)	4,598	0.77	New	0	±0
	The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV)	3,626	0.60	New	0	±0
	Asturian Renewal Union–Asturianist Party (URAS–PAS)	2,953	0.49	–1.73	0	±0
	Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,950	0.32	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	1,434	0.24	–0.09	0	±0
	Open Council (Conceyu Abiertu)	1,421	0.24	New	0	±0
	Constitutional and Democratic Party (PDyC)	1,034	0.17	New	0	±0
	National Democracy (DN)	711	0.12	–0.03	0	±0
	Liberal and Social Alternative (ALS)	334	0.06	New	0	±0
	National Front–Republican Social Movement (FrN–MSR)	260	0.04	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	11	0.00	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		15,611	2.60	+0.19
Total		600,274			45	±0
Valid votes		600,274	98.56	–0.64
Invalid votes		8,798	1.44	+0.64
Votes cast / turnout		609,072	61.69	+0.10
Abstentions		378,233	38.31	–0.10
Registered voters		987,305
Sources[16][17][18][19]

Popular vote PSOE   29.92% FAC   29.66% PP   19.95% IU–LV   10.28% UPyD   2.44% IDEAS   1.06% BA–UNA   1.03% Others   3.05% Blank ballots   2.60%

Seats FAC   35.56% PSOE   33.33% PP   22.22% IU–LV   8.89%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		FAC		PP		IU–LV
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Central	28.4	11	30.1	12	19.1	7	11.2	4
Eastern	35.3	2	33.3	2	20.3	1	5.1	−
Western	36.6	2	24.6	2	25.1	2	7.8	−
Total	29.9	15	29.7	16	20.0	10	10.3	4
Sources[16][17][18][19]

Aftermath

Further information: Cascos government

Investiture
Ballot →		13 July 2011		15 July 2011
Required majority →		23 out of 45		Simple
	Francisco Álvarez-Cascos (FAC) • FAC (16)	16 / 45	N	16 / 45	Y
	Abstentions • PSOE (15) • PP (10) • IU–LV (4)	29 / 45		29 / 45
	Absentees	0 / 45		0 / 45
Sources[19][20]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Cascos supera al PP en Asturias (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 18 May 2011.
2. "Una encuesta de Asturbarómetro da la mayoría a Cascos". El Comercio (in Spanish). 13 May 2011.
3. "Una nueva encuesta de Asturbarómetro mantiene la mayoría de Foro Asturias". El Comercio (in Spanish). 14 May 2011.
4. "El PP doblega al PSOE a siete días de la cita electoral". La Razón (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 3 September 2011.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link)
5. "Vuelco en Cantabria (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 19 May 2011.
6. "El PSOE aventaja en dos puntos al PP, que si pactase con Foro tendría mayoría absoluta". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
7. "El PP sería el partido más votado en el ayuntamiento de Cáceres". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
8. "Encuesta de TNS para Antena 3 y Onda Cero. Elecciones 22M. Expectativas electorales en Asturias" (PDF). TNS Demoscopia (in Spanish). 5 May 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 September 2011.
9. "El PSOE es el partido más votado y Cascos deja al PP como tercera fuerza". La Voz de Asturias (in Spanish). 9 May 2011. Archived from the original on 11 May 2011.
10. "El PSOE sería el más votado en Asturias (La Voz de Asturias)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 9 May 2011. Archived from the original on 13 May 2011.
11. "El PSOE se rinde al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 25 June 2011.
12. "Según una encuesta de NC Report para La Razón, el PSOE sería la fuerza más votada en Asturias, pero un hipotético pacto entre el Foro de Asturias de Cascos y el PP, podría poner fin a 12 años de gobierno socialista". ForoCoches (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
13. "Barómetro electoral autonómico" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.
14. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2011. Principado de Asturias (Estudio nº 2873. Marzo-Abril 2011)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
15. "El PSOE fija su objetivo: salvar los muebles". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 May 2011.
16. "Cascos consolida su ventaja a un mes de las elecciones". El Comercio (in Spanish). 22 April 2011.
17. "Intención de voto en las Elecciones Autonómicas de Asturias, Mayo 2011". El Comercio (in Spanish). 22 April 2011.
18. "El partido de Cascos pierde fuerza (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 April 2011. Archived from the original on 29 April 2011.
19. "Cascos será la tercera fuerza en la región y decidirá el Gobierno". ABC (in Spanish). 8 May 2011.
20. "Empate técnico entre el PSOE y el PP en Asturias (Grupo Vocento)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 8 May 2011. Archived from the original on 3 September 2011.
21. "Intención de votu n´Asturies (Asturbarómetro)". Asturies Blogia (in Asturian). 25 April 2011.
22. "El PSOE sería el partido más votado, seguido del PP y del Foro Asturias de Cascos". COPE (in Spanish). 14 April 2011. Archived from the original on 8 March 2012.
23. "Encuesta COPE socio-electoral en el Principado de Asturias" (PDF). GAD (in Spanish). 12 April 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 April 2011.
24. "Un partido liderado por Cascos ganaría las elecciones en Asturias". El Comercio (in Spanish). 23 January 2011.
25. "Encuesta Asturbarómetro. Asturias-Enero 2011". El Comercio (in Spanish). 23 January 2011.
26. "La mayoría absoluta del PP en Asturias en manos de Cascos (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 7 January 2011. Archived from the original on 15 January 2011.
27. "El PP conquista los grandes feudos de los socialistas". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 January 2011. Archived from the original on 5 March 2011.
28. "Asturbarómetro. Asturias. Elecciones autonómicas. Octubre 2010" (PDF). ADESA (in Spanish). 31 October 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on 6 December 2010.
29. "Intención de voto en las próximas elecciones autonómicas". El Comercio (in Spanish). 31 October 2010.
30. "Vuelco del mapa electoral autonómico (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 31 May 2010. Archived from the original on 2 June 2010.
31. "La izquierda mantiene el poder". Público (in Spanish). 21 March 2010. Archived from the original on 13 April 2015.

Other

1. "Cascos will have to govern Asturias in minority" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-07-09.
2. "Socialist Álvarez Areces renounces to stand for re-election to the Asturian Government after three terms" (in Spanish). El País. 2010-07-08.
3. "Javier Fernández, the Socialist candidate" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2010-07-20.
4. "Javier Fernández, ratified as PSOE candidate" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-07-20.
5. "IU proposes Jesús Iglesias to repeat as candidate" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-11-25.
6. "Iglesias: The budget guarantees social benefits" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-11-28.
7. "Rafael Palacios will head the joint list of Bloc for Asturias and UNA" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2011-02-02.
8. "The PP names Isabel Pérez-Espinosa candidate in Asturias and discards Álvarez Cascos" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2010-12-30.
9. "Álvarez-Cascos, proclaimed candidate to the Principality's Presidency" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2011-03-29.
10. "Statute of Autonomy for Asturias of 1981". Organic Law No. 7 of 30 December 1981. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
11. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
12. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
13. "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Elections System Law of 1986". Law No. 14 of 26 December 1986. Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
14. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
15. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
16. "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results, 22 May 2011" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Asturias. 7 July 2011. Retrieved 8 December 2019.
17. "Electoral Results. General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. 8th Legislature (2011–2012)". www.jgpa.es (in Spanish). General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
18. "Electoral Results. 2011". www.sadei.es (in Spanish). SADEI. Retrieved 27 September 2017.
19. "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 27 September 2017.
20. "Álvarez-Cascos es elegido presidente de Asturias en minoría con el único apoyo de su partido" (in Spanish). RTVE. 15 July 2011. Retrieved 2 October 2018.