44th Canadian federal election

The 44th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 16, 2023 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Parliament of Canada. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[1] Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government[2] or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.

44th Canadian federal election

On or before October 16, 2023 (2023-10-16)
338 seats in the House of Commons 170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer[lower-alpha 1] Yves-François Blanchet Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois Leader since April 14, 2013 May 27, 2017 January 17, 2019 Leader's seat Papineau Regina—Qu'Appelle Beloeil—Chambly Last election 157 seats, 33.07% 121 seats, 34.41% 32 seats, 7.69% Current seats 155 121 32 Seats needed 14 49 N/A[lower-alpha 2]   Leader Jagmeet Singh Jo-Ann Roberts[lower-alpha 3] Party New Democratic Green Leader since October 1, 2017 November 4, 2019 Leader's seat Burnaby South No seat Last election 24 seats, 15.93% 3 seats, 6.50% Current seats 24 3 Seats needed 146 167
Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Liberal

Background

The 2019 federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing their majority but winning the most seats. The Conservatives continued as the Official Opposition with Andrew Scheer temporarily remaining as Leader of the Opposition[3] until announcing his resignation, triggering a leadership election[4] while the Bloc Québécois became the third party. The New Democrats lost seats but maintained official party status and, although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs—twelve—for official party status. All leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the next session of Parliament.[5][6][7] However, Elizabeth May said that she may not lead the Greens into the 44th election,[8] and she ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[9] On November 6, 2019, the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader. His leadership would still have been reviewed during the party's April 2020 convention[10][11] However, on December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[12] He will stay on until his successor is chosen and will remain as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[13][14]

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MPs have announced that they would not be running in the next federal election:

Liberal Party

• Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre)[15]

Conservative Party

• Bruce Stanton (Simcoe North)[16]

Current standings

 Summary of the current standings of the House of Commons of Canada

Party		Party leader	Seats
			2019	Current
	Liberal	Justin Trudeau	157	155
	Conservative	Andrew Scheer (outgoing)	121	121
	Bloc Québécois	Yves-François Blanchet	32	32
	New Democratic	Jagmeet Singh	24	24
	Green	Jo-Ann Roberts (interim)	3	3
	Independent		1	2
Total			338	338

Timeline

See also: 43rd Canadian Parliament

Changes in seats held (2020–present)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler	June 6, 2020[17]	Marwan Tabbara	█ Liberal	Resigned from caucus[a 1]			█ Independent
Toronto Centre	August 17, 2020[18]	Bill Morneau	█ Liberal	Resigned[a 2]	TBD
York Centre	September 1, 2020[19]	Michael Levitt	█ Liberal	Resigned[a 3]	TBD

1. amid assault charges
2. amid allegations during the WE Charity controversy
3. to become a non-profit executive

2019

• October 21, 2019: In the 43rd Canadian federal election, the incumbent Liberal Party lost its majority but won the most seats in the House of Commons.
• October 23, 2019: The Liberals ruled out any "formal or informal" coalition government with any other party.[20]
• October 29, 2019: Incumbent prime minister Justin Trudeau met with Governor General Julie Payette to officially confirm that he intended to form a government.[21]
• October 30, 2019: Green Party leader Elizabeth May, MP for Saanich—Gulf Islands, announced her interest in running for Speaker of the House of Commons, a position that would necessitate stepping down from her position as party leader.[22]
• November 3, 2019: The Liberals announced that Trudeau would meet with opposition leaders during the week of November 11 to see if any common ground existed.[23]
• November 4, 2019: Elizabeth May resigned as leader of the Green Party effective immediately and ruled out a bid for Speaker. May announced that she will remain an MP and named deputy Green Party leader Jo-Ann Roberts as the party's interim leader until her successor is chosen.[24][9]
• November 6, 2019: The Conservative caucus voted against using a section of federal law that would have given them the authority to remove Andrew Scheer as party leader.[11]
• November 18, 2019: Maxime Bernier announced that he will stay on as leader of the People's Party and that he will run again in the 44th Canadian election, or before then, if there is a by-election.[25]
• November 20, 2019: The new Cabinet was sworn in.[20]
• December 5, 2019: The 43rd Parliament was convened. Anthony Rota was elected as the new Speaker of the House and the Throne Speech was read.[26]
• December 12, 2019: Andrew Scheer announces his intention to resign as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.[12]

2020

• June 6, 2020: Kitchener South—Hespeler MP Marwan Tabbara resigns from the Liberal caucus after being charged with assault, break and enter and criminal harassment.[17][27]
• August 17, 2020: Liberal Finance Minister Bill Morneau resigns from cabinet and as the MP for Toronto Centre, amid controversy relating to the WE scandal. He plans to bid for the Secretary-General of OECD.[18]
• August 23, 2020: The Conservative Party will hold a leadership election to replace Andrew Scheer. Original date of June 27 was postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.[28]
• September 1, 2020: Liberal Michael Levitt will resign as MP for York Centre to become the President and CEO of the Canadian Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Centre for Holocaust Studies, triggering a by-election in the riding.[19]
• October 4, 2020: The Green Party will hold a leadership election to replace Elizabeth May.[9][29]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 44th Canadian federal election

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes

1. Announced his pending resignation on December 12, 2019; will continue to lead the party until the leadership election results are announced on August 23, 2020
2. Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus they currently can not gain a majority in parliament.
3. Interim leader until October 4, 2020; former leader Elizabeth May remains the party's parliamentary leader.

References

1. "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
2. Aiello, Rachel (October 24, 2019). "Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say". CTV News. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
3. Tasker, John Paul (October 22, 2019). "Andrew Scheer says he's staying on as leader, will fight Trudeau in the next election". Retrieved October 28, 2019.
4. von Scheel, Elise (January 3, 2020). "Conservativesto pick their new leader on June 27". Retrieved May 17, 2020.
5. Tunney, Catharine (October 22, 2019). "Singh says he's 'not at all' worried about a leadership challenge after NDP's election disappointment". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
6. Montpetit, Jonathan (October 22, 2019). "Big gains for the Bloc Québécois, but what did it sacrifice in the process?". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
7. Tasker, John Paul (October 22, 2019). "Andrew Scheer says he's staying on as leader, will fight Trudeau in the next election". CBC News. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
8. Zimonjic, Peter (October 24, 2019). "Elizabeth May says she's staying on as leader—for now". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
9. "Elizabeth May steps down as Green Party leader | CTV News". CTV News. November 4, 2019. Retrieved November 4, 2019.
10. "Scheer's leadership safe for now after Conservative caucus vote". CBC News. November 6, 2019. Retrieved November 7, 2019.
11. "In a win for Andrew Scheer, Conservative MPs vote against reforming leadership review process". Global News. Retrieved November 7, 2019.
12. Catharine Tunney, Kathleen Harris (December 12, 2019). "Andrew Scheer stepping down as Conservative Party leader". CBC News. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
13. "Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer resigns, vows to stay on until new leader chosen". Global News. Retrieved December 14, 2019.
14. "Andrew Scheer stepping down as Conservative leader, staying on until replacement chosen". CTVNews. December 12, 2019. Retrieved December 14, 2019.
15. "Bill Morneau to resign as finance minister, MP following breakdown in relations with Trudeau over COVID policy, WE scandal". August 17, 2020. Retrieved August 17, 2020.
16. "Simcoe North MP Bruce Stanton won't seek re-election". Orillia Matters. Retrieved June 25, 2020.
17. Carty, Matt; Nielsen, Kevin (June 5, 2020). "MP Marwan Tabbara leaving Liberal caucus after charges laid". Global News. Global News. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
18. "Bill Morneau resigns as finance minister and MP, will seek to head up OECD". CBC. August 17, 2020. Retrieved August 17, 2020.
19. "Toronto Liberal MP resigns to helm Jewish human rights organization". CBC News. August 4, 2020.
20. Turnbull, Sarah (October 23, 2019). "Trudeau says new cabinet will be sworn in Nov. 20, rules out coalition". CTV News. Retrieved October 23, 2019.
21. Aiello, Rachel (October 29, 2019). "Trudeau taps French ambassador, Anne McLellan to aide in transition". CTV News. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
22. Thibedeau, Hannah (October 30, 2019). "Elizabeth May is 'interested' in being the next Speaker of the House of Commons". CBC News. Retrieved October 30, 2019.
23. Walsh, Marieke; Stone, Laura (November 3, 2019). "Trudeau invites Scheer, Blanchet, Singh and May to one-on-one meetings to see if any common ground exists". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 11, 2019.
24. Simpson, Katie (November 4, 2019). "At a news conference, Green Party leader Elizabeth May says she would like to run for speaker after the *next* election, not now, since her caucus (which totals three) doesn't want her to do that". Twitter. Retrieved November 4, 2019.
25. Dawson, Tyler (November 18, 2019). "Maxime Bernier has one election regret, but says he's definitely running again". National Post. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
26. D'amore, Rachel (November 12, 2019). "Parliament to reconvene on Dec. 5 to choose speaker, hear throne speech". Global News. Retrieved November 12, 2019.
27. "Roles - Marwan Tabbara". House of Commons. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
28. "Conservatives to pick their new leader on June 27". CBC News. January 3, 2020. Retrieved January 3, 2020.
29. "Pierre Nantel réfléchit à se présenter comme chef du Parti vert". TVRS (in French). November 5, 2019. Retrieved November 7, 2019.

External links

• Elections Canada