43rd Quebec general election

The 43rd Quebec general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 3, 2022 to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec. Under the province's fixed election date law, passed in 2013, "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature",[2] setting the date for October 3, 2022. However, the act does not fetter the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor of Quebec to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

43rd Quebec general election

On or before October 3, 2022 (2022-10-03)
125 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec 63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
PLQ Leader François Legault Dominique Anglade Party Coalition Avenir Québec Liberal Leader since November 4, 2011 May 11, 2020 Leader's seat L'Assomption Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Last election 74 seats, 37.42% 31 seats, 24.82% Current seats 76 28 Seats needed 35   PQ Leader Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (as spokespeople)[note 1] Pascal Bérubé Party Québec solidaire Parti Québécois Leader since May 21, 2017 October 9, 2018 Interim until TBD Leader's seat Massé: Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques Nadeau-Dubois: Gouin Matane-Matapédia Last election 10 seats, 16.10% 10 seats, 17.06% Current seats 10 9 Seats needed 53 54
Incumbent Premier François Legault Coalition Avenir Québec

Background

The 2018 general election resulted in a victory for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) led by François Legault won 74 of 125 seats, giving the party a majority and unseating the Philippe Couillard's Liberal Party after a single term in office. Couillard would subsequently resign as Liberal leader and be replaced on an interim basis by Pierre Arcand until his successor is chosen.[3][4]

Both the Parti Québécois and Québec solidaire won 10 seats each, less than the 12 seats needed for official party status; Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée, defeated in his bid for re-election, would subsequently resign as party leader and be replaced on an interim basis by Pascal Bérubé until his successor is chosen.[5][6]

Current standings

Summary of the current standings of the
National Assembly of Quebec

Party		Party leader	Seats
			2018	Current
	Coalition Avenir Québec	François Legault	74	76
	Liberal	Dominique Anglade	31	28
	Québec solidaire	Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois Manon Massé	10	10
	Parti Québécois	Pascal Bérubé (interim)	10	9
	Independent		0	2
	Vacant			0
Total			125	125

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2018-Present)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Roberval	October 4, 2018[3]	Philippe Couillard	█ Liberal	Resignation[a 1]	December 10, 2018[7]	Nancy Guillemette	█ CAQ
Chomedey	October 5, 2018[8][9]	Guy Ouellette	█ Liberal	Expelled from caucus[a 2]			█ Independent
Marie-Victorin	March 11, 2019[10]	Catherine Fournier	█ Parti Québécois	Resigned from caucus[a 3]			█ Independent
Jean-Talon	August 30, 2019[11]	Sébastien Proulx	█ Liberal	Resignation from National Assembly	December 2, 2019[12]	Joëlle Boutin	█ CAQ

1. from positions of Liberal Party leader and MNA
2. for allegedly leaking confidential information to the CAQ in 2016
3. claiming that the party had lost its way ideologically

2018

• October 1, 2018: The Coalition Avenir Québec led by François Legault wins a majority government in the 42nd Quebec general election. Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée, defeated in his bid for re-election, announces his resignation as party leader.[5]
• October 5, 2018: Mont-Royal–Outremont MNA Pierre Arcand is named interim leader of the Quebec Liberal Party.[4]
• October 9, 2018: Matane-Matapédia MNA Pascal Bérubé is named interim leader of the Parti Québécois[6]

2020

• March 20, 2020: The 2020 Quebec Liberal Party leadership election is suspended indefinitely due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Quebec.[13]
• May 11, 2020: Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne MNA Dominique Anglade is selected as leader of the Quebec Liberal Party by acclamation following the withdrawal of rival candidate Alexandre Cusson.[14]

Electoral Reform

Québec's 2022 Electoral reform Referendum (government proposal)
Do you agree with replacing the first-past-the-post electoral system by the mixed electoral system with regional compensation set out in the Act to establish a new electoral system? French: Êtes-vous en accord avec le remplacement du mode de scrutin majoritaire uninominal à un tour par le mode de scrutin mixte avec compensation régionale prévu par la Loi établissant un nouveau mode de scrutin?
Date	October 3, 2022 (2022-10-03)

François Legault was elected on a promise to reform the electoral system within a year of his victory. On 25 September 2019, Minister of Justice Sonia Lebel presented Bill 39, An Act to establish a new electoral system which aims to replace the First-part-the-post electoral system in favour of a mixed-member proportional representation system. The Bill has not yet been debated in parliament.

According to the bill, the National Assembly would keep 125 members, 80 of which would be elected by receiving a plurality of votes in a single-member district (as usual), while the remaining 45 members would be chosen relative to a new party list vote, according to their order in the regional party list. All 16 regions of Québec would be guaranteed at least one list MP. The system would thus be similar to the Additional member system of the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments created in 1999.

However, the reform wouldn't affect the 43rd general election likely to be held in 2022, as the bill ties the reform with a popular approval in a referendum, to be held on the same day as the general election.[15] Should this referendum be successful, then the first legislature to be elected under mixed-member proportional would be the 44th, in October 2026 at the latest.

Opinion polls

Voting Intentions in Quebec since the 2018 Election

The first dot is the 2018 election results, and the last dot is the latest qc125.com polling average.[16]

Polling organisation	Last date of polling	Source	CAQ	Liberal	PQ	QS	Other	Sample size	Margin of error	Lead
EKOS	July 3, 2020	HTML	59	19	8	9	5	1,870	±2.5	40
Innovative Research Group	June 1, 2020	PDF	38	28	16	9	9 (Green 8%, Other 1%)	257	N/A	10
Leger	May 25, 2020	HTML	54	22	11	8	5	1,203		32
Angus Reid	May 24, 2020	HTML	50	22	11	10	7	739	N/A	28
Innovative Research Group	May 5, 2020	PDF	35	32	17	8	6	257	N/A	3
EKOS	March 27, 2020	HTML	51.9	19.2	14.4	10.4	4	578	±4.1%	32.7
Angus Reid	February 28, 2020	PDF	36	22	17	16	9	638	±3.7%	14
Leger	January 15, 2020	HTML	42	23	19	11	5	1,202	±2.8%	19
Leger	November 25, 2019	HTML	38	27	19	10	6	1,000	±3.1%	11
Mainstreet	July 2, 2019	HTML	47.8	21.7	10.5	14.5	5.6	871	±3.32%	26.1
Forum	June 12, 2019	PDF	46	16	13	19	6	1,407–71	±2.5%	24
Leger	May 21, 2019	HTML	46	23	14	13	4	979	±3%	23
Mainstreet	March 21, 2019	PDF	45.3	22.3	10.4	14.7	7.2	940	±3.20%	23.0
Leger	March 11, 2019	PDF	44	21	15	15	5	1,014	±3.08%	23
Leger	January 28, 2019	PDF	42	22	18	15	3	1,007	±3.09%	20
Mainstreet	January 18, 2019	PDF	44.5	26.1	8.9	15.8	4.8	979	±3.13%	18.4
Mainstreet	November 7, 2018	HTML	39.4	22.8	14.1	19.0	4.7	896	±3.27%	16.6
2018 election	October 1, 2018		37.42	24.82	17.06	16.10	4.60	4,033,538		12.6

Notes

1. Québec solidaire designates Massé and Nadeau-Dubois as co-spokespeople. The party's power is held by the general meetings of the members and a board of 16 directors; the de jure leader recognized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec (DGE) is Gaétan Châteauneuf.[1]

References

1. "Québec solidaire". Élections Québec. Retrieved June 20, 2017.
2. An Act to amend the Election Act for the purpose of establishing fixed-date elections, L.Q. 2013, c. 13, s. 3
3. Hinkson, Kamila (October 4, 2018). "Philippe Couillard steps down, making way for a 'new generation' of Quebec Liberals". CBC News. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
4. Authier, Philip (October 5, 2018). "New interim Liberal leader Pierre Arcand takes aim at CAQ and QS". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
5. Stober, Eric; Laframboise, Kalina (October 1, 2018). "Parti Québécois Leader Jean-François Lisée steps down after losing own riding of Rosemont". Global News. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
6. "Pascal Bérubé named interim Parti Québécois leader". CBC News. October 9, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
7. "Roberval elects CAQ candidate Nancy Guillemette". CTV News. December 11, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
8. "Guy Ouellette expelled from Liberal caucus". CBC News. October 5, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
9. "'Destroyed' by investigation, Guy Ouellette sues Quebec government for $550K". CBC News. November 22, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
10. "'They've lost their way': PQ MNA Catherine Fournier quits party". CTV Montreal. March 11, 2019. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
11. Authier, Philip (2019-08-31). "Former Liberal minister Sébastien Proulx announces he's leaving politics". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
12. "Liberal stronghold in Quebec City falls to the CAQ in by-election". CTV News Montreal, December 2, 2019.
13. "Quebec Liberal Party suspends its leadership contest due to COVID-19 pandemic". CTV News. Canadian Press. March 20, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2020.
14. "Dominique Anglade couronnée à la tête du Parti libéral". TVA Nouvelles. Retrieved 2020-05-11.
15. "Bill 39 – An act to establish a new electoral system". National Assembly of Québec. Retrieved 2019-10-22.
16. "Projection du vote populaire". qc125. Retrieved 10 April 2020.