51st Newfoundland and Labrador general election

The 51st Newfoundland and Labrador general election will elect members to the 50th general assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador. Under the province's fixed election date law, the vote is tentatively scheduled for October 10, 2023, however a caveat in the law mandates that an election must be held within one year of a new Premier assuming office. Therefore, the election is expected to be held within one year of the 2020 Liberal leadership election, after which Premier Dwight Ball will formally resign. Andrew Furey will be sworn in as Premier on August 19, 2020.

51st Newfoundland and Labrador general election

On or before October 10, 2023
All 40 seats in the 50th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador 21 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
LIB NDP Leader Andrew Furey Ches Crosbie Alison Coffin Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since August 3, 2020 April 28, 2018 March 5, 2019 Leader's seat TBA Windsor Lake St. John's East-Quidi Vidi Last election 20 seats, 43.9% 15 seats, 42.6% 3 seats, 6.3% Current seats 20 15 3 Seats needed 1 6 18
Incumbent Premier Dwight Ball Liberal

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MHAs had announced that they would not be running in this provincial election:

Liberal

• Carol Anne Haley (Burin-Grand Bank)[1]

Timeline

2019

• May 16, 2019 – The Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador wins 20 of the 40 seats in the House of Assembly during the general election, re-electing Premier Dwight Ball but forcing the Liberals to form a minority government. This is the first time the province has elected a minority government since 1971.[2]

• May 30, 2019 - Premier Ball's cabinet is sworn in; all minister maintain their previous portfolios with the exception of MHA Warr entering cabinet.[3][4]

• September 13, 2019 - Minister Trimper resigns from cabinet after comments critical of the Innu Nation were left on the voicemail of an Innu Nation staffer and publicly revealed.[5]

• September 13, 2019 - MHA Bragg is appointed Minister of Municipal Affairs and Environment replacing Trimper.[6]

• December 5, 2019 - The House of Assembly votes to reprimand Minister Chris Mitchelmore for his hiring of Carla Foote at The Rooms despite her lack of qualifications and her political connections to the Liberals. The House of Assembly orders that Mitchelmore apologize to the Board of Directors of The Rooms and to the House of Assembly and also be suspended two-week without pay.[7]

2020

• February 17, 2020 - Dwight Ball announces that he will be resigning as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador following a Liberal leadership election.[8] Provincial legislation requires that a general election must occur no more than one year following a Premier's resignation.[9]

• April 4, 2020 - Service NL Minister Sherry Gambin-Walsh was removed from cabinet as the RCMP launched a criminal investigation into allegations that she leaked cabinet documents.[10][11]

• August 3, 2020 - Andrew Furey is elected leader of the Liberal Party.

• August 19, 2020 - Andrew Furey will be sworn in as Premier.

Opinion polls

Voting Intentions in Newfoundland and Labrador since the 2019 Election

Polling Firm	Final Day of Polling	Link	Liberal	PC	NDP	NLA
Angus Reid	June 8, 2020	[12]	48	35	12	–
Narrative Research	May 26, 2020	[13]	60	26	13	–
Narrative Research	February 23, 2020	[14]	37	35	26	–
Narrative Research	November 22, 2019	[15]	42	33	24	–
Narrative Research	August 25, 2019	[16]	42	32	24	–
MQO Research	July 31, 2019	[17]	50	34	13	1
Election 2019	May 16, 2019	–	43.9	42.6	6.3	2.4

References

1. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/carole-anne-haley-1.5686461
2. McKenzie-Sutter, Holly (May 16, 2019). "Liberals re-elected with minority government in Newfoundland and Labrador vote". CTV News. Retrieved November 8, 2019.
3. "Cabinet of Premier Dwight Ball Sworn in as New Government is Formed". Government of Newfoundland and Labrador - Executive Council. May 30, 2019. Retrieved January 22, 2020.
4. "Dwight Ball goes to Warr to fill out new cabinet". The ChronicleHerald. Saltwire Network. May 31, 2019. Retrieved January 22, 2020.
5. "N.L. cabinet minister apologizes after describing Innu as playing 'race card' in leaked voicemail recording". CBC News. September 12, 2019. Retrieved January 22, 2020.
6. "Premier: Trimper Stays in Liberal Caucus, Bragg to Assume Portfolio". VOCM.com. Stingray Group Inc. September 13, 2019. Retrieved January 22, 2020.
7. "All you need to know about the Mitchelmore-Foote fiasco, from beginning to end". CBC News. December 8, 2019. Retrieved January 22, 2020.
8. Mullin, Malone (February 17, 2020). "Dwight Ball stepping down as Newfoundland and Labrador premier". CBC News. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
9. Maher, David (February 17, 2020). "Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Dwight Ball stepping down". The Telegram. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
10. "Sherry Gambin-Walsh removed from provincial cabinet". CBC News. CBC. Retrieved April 5, 2020.
11. Maher, David (April 4, 2020). "UPDATE: Premier removes Newfoundland MHA Sherry Gambin-Walsh from cabinet". The Telegram. Retrieved April 5, 2020.
12. "Provincial Spotlight". Angus Reid. June 8, 2020. Retrieved June 8, 2020.
13. Connors, Michael (May 28, 2020). "Narrative Research poll for NL". Twitter.com. Retrieved May 28, 2020.
14. "Satisfaction with Premier Ball's government drops dramatically, coinciding with resignation announcement". Narrative Research. Retrieved March 12, 2020.
15. Connors, Michael (December 10, 2019). "Narrative Research Poll: Decided Voters". Twitter.com. Retrieved January 22, 2020.
16. "PCs drop and NDP jumps while Liberals hold steady in N.L. support". CBC News. September 17, 2019. Retrieved January 22, 2020.
17. "NL Liberals Hold Lead Following Election". MQO Research. Retrieved March 9, 2020.