2020 New Brunswick general election
The 2020 New Brunswick general election will be held on September 14, 2020 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick.
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49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 25 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The writs of election were issued by Lieutenant Governor Brenda Murphy on August 17, 2020, after a request was made by Premier Blaine Higgs to dissolve the legislature.
The election was scheduled to take place on October 17, 2022, as determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Legislative Assembly Act, which requires a general election to be held every four years on the third Monday in October.[1] However, Premier Higgs called a snap election after negotiations failed with the other parties that would have avoided an election until the fixed date in 2022 or the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.[2]
Background
Aftermath of the 2018 election
The 2018 provincial election resulted in no party winning a majority of seats in the legislature for the first time since the 1920 provincial election. On election night, Blaine Higgs claimed victory for the Progressive Conservative Party, saying his team had received a mandate from New Brunswickers; however, Liberal Party leader and incumbent premier Brian Gallant stated his intention to remain in office with a minority government by securing support on a vote-by-vote basis.[3] Over the following days, Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau met with both leaders and gave permission to Gallant to continue in office and attempt to seek the confidence of the Legislative Assembly;[4] while Higgs was told that if Gallant was unable to secure the confidence of the Assembly, Higgs would be called on to form government.[5]
After the election, both Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and David Coon of the Green Party were noncommittal in their support.[6][7] Gallant pursued a partnership with the Green Party and ruled out any arrangement with the Progressive Conservative Party or People's Alliance because Gallant did not believe that they shared the Liberal Party’s “values”.[8] Higgs initially ruled out any formal agreements with other parties, but later said that a four-year agreement would be ideal for stability.[9] On September 28, 2018, Austin agreed to provide stability for a Progressive Conservative minority government on a "bill-by-bill basis" for eighteen months, though no formal agreement was made.[10]
On November 2, 2018, the Progressive Conservatives introduced a motion of no confidence in the Legislative Assembly, resulting in a 25-23 vote against the Liberals. Subsequently, Gallant resigned as Premier and recommended to the Lieutenant Governor that Higgs be given the opportunity to form government.[11] Higgs' minority government was sworn into office on November 9, 2018.[12]
On November 15, 2018, Gallant announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party.[13] He was succeeded by Kevin Vickers on April 24, 2019.[14]
Speculation of an early election
The PC minority government's seat total dropped to 20 after the death of MLA Greg Thompson on September 10, 2019 and the resignation of Deputy Premier Robert Gauvin on February 14, 2020.[15] Gauvin's resignation came after the PC government announced health reforms, including the nightly closure of six hospital emergency rooms across the province as a cost reduction measure.[15] Despite the Progressive Conservatives quickly backtracking on their proposals, the Liberals and the Greens said that they would not support the government at the next confidence vote, while the People's Alliance specifically did not rule out a vote of non-confidence.[15][16][17] The next confidence vote was scheduled for March 20, 2020 to approve the PC government's proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year;[18] however, by that time, the People's Alliance decided to continue supporting the government and Green MLAs were allowed to vote freely on the budget.[18] Furthermore, after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, all parties decided to co-operate with each other—thus, avoiding a spring election.[19]
However, by the summer, COVID-19 cases had stayed low for several weeks and Premier Blaine Higgs began to hint at the possibility of a fall election, arguing that stability was required for the next phase of the pandemic and economic recovery.[20] The Progressive Conservatives carried out candidate riding nominations on August 8, 2020, continuing speculation of when an election might be called.[21] On the following Monday, Higgs made an offer to the opposition parties to avoid an election until 2022 or the end of the pandemic;[20] however, negotiations ultimately failed and a snap election was called on August 17, 2020.[2]
Campaign
Election call and initial reaction
At his election announcement, Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs blamed the Liberals for the failure of negotiations that would have avoided an election until 2022 or the end of the pandemic.[22] In response, Liberal leader Kevin Vickers and Green Party leader David Coon criticized Higgs for calling an election during a pandemic.[22] Vickers insisted that the negotiations would have given unlimited power to Higgs and the PCs, and an election should have been held after the end of the pandemic.[22] Meanwhile, People's Alliance leader Kris Austin asked New Brunswickers to vote for his party to ensure accountability of the next government by electing another minority legislature.[2][22]
Impact of COVID-19
From the outset of the campaign, Higgs was asked about the potential impact of COVID-19 on the election.[2] Higgs initially caused confusion when he said that he would be able to suspend the election, if necessary,[2] even though, New Brunswick's Chief Electoral Officer Kim Poffenroth said that an election could not be stopped after it has been called.[2] Additionally, Higgs suggested that he could turn to the COVID-19 emergency order declared by the province under the Emergency Measures Act (EMA), despite the fact that election timelines are exempt from the EMA.[2] However, Higgs remained firm that he did not intend to suspend the election.[2] Higgs also shared that, because of COVID-19, PC candidates were instructed to avoid door-to-door campaigning and mailbox flyers during the election.[2][22]
Opinion polls
- Voting Intentions in New Brunswick since the 2018 Election
Polling Firm | Last Day of Polling | Link | PC | Liberal | PA | Green | NDP | ||||
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Angus Reid | May 24, 2020 | HTML | 39 | 26 | 13 | 17 | 4 | ||||
Narrative Research | May 20, 2020 | HTML | 48 | 30 | 3 | 15 | 5 | ||||
Innovative Research Group | May 7, 2020 | 33 | 37 | 6 | 13 | 10 | |||||
Narrative Research | March 12, 2020 | HTML | 39 | 28 | 4 | 20 | 8 | ||||
MQO Research | February 27, 2020 | 37 | 31 | 4 | 21 | 4 | |||||
Narrative Research | November 1-22, 2019 | HTML | 37 | 31 | 3 | 21 | 7 | ||||
Narrative Research | August 2–23, 2019 | 36 | 29 | 8 | 18 | 6 | |||||
Narrative Research | June 13, 2019 | HTML | 42 | 25 | 6 | 18 | 8 | ||||
MQO Research | May 6, 2019 | 40 | 30 | 5 | 20 | 3 | |||||
24 April 2019 | Kevin Vickers becomes leader of the Liberal Party | ||||||||||
Corporate Research Associates | February 19, 2019 | 42 | 29 | 9 | 14 | 6 | |||||
MQO Research | February 10, 2019 | 46 | 32 | 8 | 11 | 3 | |||||
Mainstreet Research | January 15, 2019 | HTML | 40.2 | 27.3 | 12.4 | 15 | 4.5 | ||||
Corporate Research Associates | November 24, 2018 | 30 | 35 | 12 | 17 | 6 | |||||
9 November 2018 | Blaine Higgs is sworn in as Premier of New Brunswick leading a PC minority government, following the resignation of Brian Gallant and his Liberal minority government. | ||||||||||
MQO Research | November 5, 2018 | 36 | 29 | 11 | 21 | 3 | |||||
2 November 2018 | Premier Brian Gallant's Liberal minority government loses a non-confidence vote | ||||||||||
Mainstreet Research | November 2, 2018 | HTML | 33.7 | 33.7 | 12.7 | 15.7 | 3 | ||||
Election 2018 | September 24, 2018 | HTML | 31.89 | 37.80 | 12.58 | 11.88 | 5.01 | ||||
Candidates
Legend
- bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
- italics denotes a potential candidate who has not received his/her party's nomination
- † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
- * denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district
NOTE: Candidates' names are as registered with Elections New Brunswick
Northern
Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
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Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Restigouche West | Gilles LePage | |||||||||||||
Campbellton-Dalhousie | Guy Arseneault | |||||||||||||
Restigouche-Chaleur | Daniel Guitard[23] | Marie Larivière[24] | Daniel Guitard | |||||||||||
Bathurst West-Beresford | Brian Kenny†[25] | |||||||||||||
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore | Denis Landry | |||||||||||||
Caraquet | Isabelle Thériault | |||||||||||||
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou | Robert Gauvin* | |||||||||||||
Tracadie-Sheila | Keith Chiasson |
Miramichi
Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
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Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Miramichi Bay-Neguac | Douglas Mullin[26] | Lisa Harris | ||||||||||||
Miramichi | Kevin Vickers[27] | Josh Shaddick[28] | Michelle Conroy[29] | Michelle Conroy | ||||||||||
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin | Jake Stewart [30] | Art O'Donnell[29] | Jake Stewart |
Southeastern
Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Kent North | Kevin Arseneau | |||||||||||||
Kent South | Benoît Bourque | |||||||||||||
Shediac Bay-Dieppe | Robert Gauvin[31] | Marty Bourque[32] | Delphine Daigle [33] | Vacant | ||||||||||
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé | Gilles Cormier[34] | Jacques LeBlanc | ||||||||||||
Memramcook-Tantramar | Megan Mitton[24] | Megan Mitton | ||||||||||||
Dieppe | Roger Melanson | |||||||||||||
Moncton East | Monique LeBlanc[23] | Monique LeBlanc | ||||||||||||
Moncton Centre | Rob McKee | |||||||||||||
Moncton South | Cathy Rogers†[35] | |||||||||||||
Moncton Northwest | Ernie Steeves | |||||||||||||
Moncton Southwest | Sherry Wilson | |||||||||||||
Riverview | R. Bruce Fitch | Troy Bertiet[29] | R. Bruce Fitch | |||||||||||
Albert | Sharon Buchanan [29] | Mike Holland | ||||||||||||
Gagetown-Petitcodiac | Ross Wetmore | John Urquhart[23] | Ross Wetmore |
Southern
Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins | Jim Bedford[29] | Bruce Northrup†[36] | ||||||||||||
Hampton | Gary Crossman[37] | Gary Crossman | ||||||||||||
Quispamsis | Blaine Higgs[37] | Caitlin Grogan[38] | Blaine Higgs | |||||||||||
Rothesay | Ted Flemming[37] | Michael Griffin[29] | Ted Flemming | |||||||||||
Saint John East | Glen Savoie[39] | Glen Savoie | ||||||||||||
Portland-Simonds | Trevor Holder[39] | Trevor Holder | ||||||||||||
Saint John Harbour | Barry Ogden[40] or Arlene Dunn [41] | Alice McKim[42] | Brent Harris[43] | Courtney Pyrke [44] | Gerry Lowe†[45] | |||||||||
Saint John Lancaster | Dorothy Shephard[39] | Dorothy Shephard | ||||||||||||
Kings Centre | Bill Oliver[39] | Bill Oliver | ||||||||||||
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West | Andrea Anderson-Mason | |||||||||||||
Saint Croix | Kathy Bockus[46] | John Gardner[23] | Andrew Sutton[24] | Rod Cumberland[29] | Vacant |
Capital Region
Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton | Mary E. Wilson[37] | Craig Rector[29] | Mary E. Wilson | |||||||||||
Fredericton-Grand Lake | Kris Austin[29] | Kris Austin | ||||||||||||
New Maryland-Sunbury | Jennifer Smith [47] | Morris Shannon[29] | Jeff Carr | |||||||||||
Fredericton South | David Coon[24] | David Coon | ||||||||||||
Fredericton North | Jill Green [48] | Stephen Horsman[23] | Luke Randall[24] | Allen Price[29] | Mackenzie Thomason[49] | Stephen Horsman | ||||||||
Fredericton-York | Rick DeSaulniers[29] | Rick DeSaulniers | ||||||||||||
Fredericton West-Hanwell | Dominic Cardy[37] | Chris Duffie[23] | Dominic Cardy | |||||||||||
Carleton-York | Gary Lemmon [29] | Carl Urquhart†[50] |
Upper River Valley
Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Carleton | Theresa Blackburn[23] | Greg Crouse[24] | Graham Gill [29] | Stewart Fairgrieve†[51] | ||||||||||
Carleton-Victoria | Andrew Harvey | |||||||||||||
Victoria-La Vallée | Chuck Chiasson | |||||||||||||
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre | Jean-Claude (JC) D'Amours | |||||||||||||
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston | Francine Landry |
Notes
References
- Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick. "An Act to Amend the Legislative Assembly Act". Retrieved November 27, 2018.
- Poitras, Jacques (2020-08-17). "Blaine Higgs calls New Brunswick election for Sept. 14, despite pandemic". CBC News.
- MacDonald, Michael (September 24, 2018). "New Brunswick Tories win most seats, but Liberals will try to stay in power". CTV News. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- Fraser, Elizabeth (September 25, 2018). "Liberals and PCs continue battle over who will govern N.B." CBC News. Retrieved September 27, 2018.
- "New Brunswick Tory leader Blaine Higgs calls on Premier Brian Gallant to resign". The Canadian Press. September 27, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- Donkin, Karissa (September 24, 2018). "People's Alliance wins 3 seats in 'significant breakthrough'". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- Fraser, Elizabeth (September 24, 2018). "David Coon will head back to house with 2 other Green MLAs". CBC News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
- Fraser, Elizabeth (September 26, 2018). "Liberals court Greens for governing partnership". CBC News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
- "Four-year deal between New Brunswick Tories, smaller party ideal for stability: Higgs". The Canadian Press. October 1, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
- "People's Alliance agrees to support a PC government in N.B. 'bill by bill'". CBC News. September 28, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- Brian Gallant's minority government defeated after losing confidence vote
- Bisset, Kevin (November 9, 2018). "Blaine Higgs sworn-in as New Brunswick premier". The Canadian Press.
- Brian Gallant resigns as N.B. Liberal leader after election loss
- "Kevin Vickers officially acclaimed as leader of New Brunswick Liberals". CTV News. The Canadian Press. April 17, 2019. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
- Poitras, Jacques (14 February 2020). "Gauvin resigns as deputy premier, will sit as an independent". CBC News. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
- Bissett, Kevin (2020-02-19). "N.B. prof says Tory backtrack on ER closures could prompt early election". CTV News.
- Bissett, Kevin (2020-02-14). "New Brunswick deputy premier Robert Gauvin quits minority Tory government over health-care reforms". The Globe and Mail.
- Brown, Laura (2020-03-03). "N.B. anticipates upcoming budget". CTV News.
- Brown, Laura; April, Allan (2020-08-10). "N.B. premier proposes set election date deal to opposition parties". CTV News.
- Poitras, Jacques (2020-08-10). "Higgs proposes deal to avoid general election until 2022 or end of COVID-19 pandemic". CBC News.
- "PCs carry on with nominations in N.B. despite COVID-19 restrictions". CBC News. 2020-08-08.
- Brown, Laura; Van Horne, Ryan (2020-08-17). "New Brunswick premier calls early election during pandemic". CTV News.
- "Nominations". New Brunswick Liberal Association.
- "Nomination Status". Green Party of New Brunswick.
- https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10158464006956427&set=a.155420526426&type=3
- https://twitter.com/han_kyoul/status/1295433909778485249
- Poitras, Jacques (18 August 2020). "Blaine Higgs calls New Brunswick election for Sept. 14, despite pandemic". CBC News. CBC/Radio-Canada. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
- https://www.facebook.com/josh.shad/posts/10158818598414078
- https://www.facebook.com/AGNBPANB/posts/3142076825869453
- https://www.facebook.com/jake.d.stewart/photos/a.1028791153884619/3145141618916218
- Poitras, Jacques (18 August 2020). "Former PC cabinet minister runs for Liberals in Shediac Bay-Dieppe". CBC News. CBC/Radio-Canada. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
- https://www.facebook.com/GoodVibesMarty/posts/10164501620515647
- https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=4204224459649615&set=a.399685270103572&type=3
- https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=4214873498588080&set=a.194851847256952&type=3
- https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=636210610401431
- Poitras, Jacques (18 June 2020). "Longtime PC MLA stepping down this fall". CBC News. CBC/Radio-Canada. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
- "PCs carry on with nominations in N.B. despite COVID-19 restrictions". CBC News. CBC/Radio-Canada. 8 August 2020. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
- https://twitter.com/thecaitdiaries/status/1295329591926587395
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.facebook .com /GaryCrossmanNB /posts /3803247469692225 - https://www.facebook.com/barry.ogden.33/posts/10157126228030855
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- https://twitter.com/AliceAMcKim/status/1295536823859589125
- https://twitter.com/brentharris4sj/status/1295418560559353857
- "Interim NDP leader, 23, confesses to 'a little bit of panic' over possible fall election". CBC News. CBC/Radio-Canada. 12 August 2020. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
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- https://www.facebook.com/KathyBockusPCcandidate/
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- https://www.facebook.com/jill.green.fton/videos/1004808119978559/
- "Interim NDP leader, 23, confesses to 'a little bit of panic' over possible fall election". CBC News. CBC/Radio-Canada. 12 August 2020. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
- https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10158669838825050&set=a.10151806639650050&type=3
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