2020 New Brunswick general election

The 2020 New Brunswick general election will be held on September 14, 2020 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick.

2020 New Brunswick general election
September 14, 2020
49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
25 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Blaine Higgs Kevin Vickers Kris Austin
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal People's Alliance
Leader since October 22, 2016 April 24, 2019 June 5, 2010
Leader's seat Quispamsis Running in Miramichi Fredericton-Grand Lake
Last election 22 seats, 31.89% 21 seats, 37.80% 3 seats, 12.58%
Current seats 20 20 3
Seats needed 5 5 22
 
NDP
Leader David Coon Mackenzie Thomason
Party Green New Democratic
Leader since September 22, 2012 February 25, 2019
Leader's seat Fredericton South Running in
Fredericton North
Last election 3 seats, 11.88% 0 seats, 5.00%
Current seats 3 0
Seats needed 22 25
Incumbent Premier

Blaine Higgs
Progressive Conservative

The writs of election were issued by Lieutenant Governor Brenda Murphy on August 17, 2020, after a request was made by Premier Blaine Higgs to dissolve the legislature.

The election was scheduled to take place on October 17, 2022, as determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Legislative Assembly Act, which requires a general election to be held every four years on the third Monday in October.[1] However, Premier Higgs called a snap election after negotiations failed with the other parties that would have avoided an election until the fixed date in 2022 or the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.[2]

Background

Aftermath of the 2018 election
Further information: 2018 New Brunswick general election § Aftermath

The 2018 provincial election resulted in no party winning a majority of seats in the legislature for the first time since the 1920 provincial election. On election night, Blaine Higgs claimed victory for the Progressive Conservative Party, saying his team had received a mandate from New Brunswickers; however, Liberal Party leader and incumbent premier Brian Gallant stated his intention to remain in office with a minority government by securing support on a vote-by-vote basis.[3] Over the following days, Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau met with both leaders and gave permission to Gallant to continue in office and attempt to seek the confidence of the Legislative Assembly;[4] while Higgs was told that if Gallant was unable to secure the confidence of the Assembly, Higgs would be called on to form government.[5]

After the election, both Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and David Coon of the Green Party were noncommittal in their support.[6][7] Gallant pursued a partnership with the Green Party and ruled out any arrangement with the Progressive Conservative Party or People's Alliance because Gallant did not believe that they shared the Liberal Party’s “values”.[8] Higgs initially ruled out any formal agreements with other parties, but later said that a four-year agreement would be ideal for stability.[9] On September 28, 2018, Austin agreed to provide stability for a Progressive Conservative minority government on a "bill-by-bill basis" for eighteen months, though no formal agreement was made.[10]

On November 2, 2018, the Progressive Conservatives introduced a motion of no confidence in the Legislative Assembly, resulting in a 25-23 vote against the Liberals. Subsequently, Gallant resigned as Premier and recommended to the Lieutenant Governor that Higgs be given the opportunity to form government.[11] Higgs' minority government was sworn into office on November 9, 2018.[12]

On November 15, 2018, Gallant announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party.[13] He was succeeded by Kevin Vickers on April 24, 2019.[14]

Speculation of an early election

The PC minority government's seat total dropped to 20 after the death of MLA Greg Thompson on September 10, 2019 and the resignation of Deputy Premier Robert Gauvin on February 14, 2020.[15] Gauvin's resignation came after the PC government announced health reforms, including the nightly closure of six hospital emergency rooms across the province as a cost reduction measure.[15] Despite the Progressive Conservatives quickly backtracking on their proposals, the Liberals and the Greens said that they would not support the government at the next confidence vote, while the People's Alliance specifically did not rule out a vote of non-confidence.[15][16][17] The next confidence vote was scheduled for March 20, 2020 to approve the PC government's proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year;[18] however, by that time, the People's Alliance decided to continue supporting the government and Green MLAs were allowed to vote freely on the budget.[18] Furthermore, after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, all parties decided to co-operate with each other—thus, avoiding a spring election.[19]

However, by the summer, COVID-19 cases had stayed low for several weeks and Premier Blaine Higgs began to hint at the possibility of a fall election, arguing that stability was required for the next phase of the pandemic and economic recovery.[20] The Progressive Conservatives carried out candidate riding nominations on August 8, 2020, continuing speculation of when an election might be called.[21] On the following Monday, Higgs made an offer to the opposition parties to avoid an election until 2022 or the end of the pandemic;[20] however, negotiations ultimately failed and a snap election was called on August 17, 2020.[2]

Campaign

Election call and initial reaction

At his election announcement, Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs blamed the Liberals for the failure of negotiations that would have avoided an election until 2022 or the end of the pandemic.[22] In response, Liberal leader Kevin Vickers and Green Party leader David Coon criticized Higgs for calling an election during a pandemic.[22] Vickers insisted that the negotiations would have given unlimited power to Higgs and the PCs, and an election should have been held after the end of the pandemic.[22] Meanwhile, People's Alliance leader Kris Austin asked New Brunswickers to vote for his party to ensure accountability of the next government by electing another minority legislature.[2][22]

Impact of COVID-19

From the outset of the campaign, Higgs was asked about the potential impact of COVID-19 on the election.[2] Higgs initially caused confusion when he said that he would be able to suspend the election, if necessary,[2] even though, New Brunswick's Chief Electoral Officer Kim Poffenroth said that an election could not be stopped after it has been called.[2] Additionally, Higgs suggested that he could turn to the COVID-19 emergency order declared by the province under the Emergency Measures Act (EMA), despite the fact that election timelines are exempt from the EMA.[2] However, Higgs remained firm that he did not intend to suspend the election.[2] Higgs also shared that, because of COVID-19, PC candidates were instructed to avoid door-to-door campaigning and mailbox flyers during the election.[2][22]

Opinion polls
Voting Intentions in New Brunswick since the 2018 Election
Polling Firm Last Day of Polling Link PC Liberal PA Green NDP
Angus Reid May 24, 2020 HTML 39 26 13 17 4
Narrative Research May 20, 2020 HTML 48 30 3 15 5
Innovative Research Group May 7, 2020 PDF 33 37 6 13 10
Narrative Research March 12, 2020 HTML 39 28 4 20 8
MQO Research February 27, 2020 PDF 37 31 4 21 4
Narrative Research November 1-22, 2019 HTML 37 31 3 21 7
Narrative Research August 2–23, 2019 PDF 36 29 8 18 6
Narrative Research June 13, 2019 HTML 42 25 6 18 8
MQO Research May 6, 2019 PDF 40 30 5 20 3
24 April 2019Kevin Vickers becomes leader of the Liberal Party
Corporate Research Associates February 19, 2019 PDF 42 29 9 14 6
MQO Research February 10, 2019 PDF 46 32 8 11 3
Mainstreet Research January 15, 2019 HTML 40.2 27.3 12.4 15 4.5
Corporate Research Associates November 24, 2018 PDF 30 35 12 17 6
9 November 2018Blaine Higgs is sworn in as Premier of New Brunswick leading a PC minority government, following the resignation of Brian Gallant and his Liberal minority government.
MQO Research November 5, 2018 PDF 36 29 11 21 3
2 November 2018Premier Brian Gallant's Liberal minority government loses a non-confidence vote
Mainstreet Research November 2, 2018 HTML 33.7 33.7 12.7 15.7 3
Election 2018 September 24, 2018 HTML 31.89 37.80 12.58 11.88 5.01

Candidates

Legend

  • bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
  • italics denotes a potential candidate who has not received his/her party's nomination
  • † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
  • * denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

NOTE: Candidates' names are as registered with Elections New Brunswick

Northern
Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 Progressive Conservatives Liberal Green PANB NDPOther
Restigouche West Gilles LePage
Campbellton-Dalhousie Guy Arseneault
Restigouche-Chaleur Daniel Guitard[23] Marie Larivière[24] Daniel Guitard
Bathurst West-Beresford Brian Kenny†[25]
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore Denis Landry
Caraquet Isabelle Thériault
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou Robert Gauvin*
Tracadie-Sheila Keith Chiasson

Miramichi
Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 Progressive Conservatives Liberal Green PANB NDPOther
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Douglas Mullin[26] Lisa Harris
Miramichi Kevin Vickers[27] Josh Shaddick[28] Michelle Conroy[29] Michelle Conroy
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin Jake Stewart [30] Art O'Donnell[29] Jake Stewart

Southeastern
Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 Progressive Conservatives Liberal Green PANB NDPOther
Kent North Kevin Arseneau
Kent South Benoît Bourque
Shediac Bay-Dieppe Robert Gauvin[31] Marty Bourque[32] Delphine Daigle [33] Vacant
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé Gilles Cormier[34] Jacques LeBlanc
Memramcook-Tantramar Megan Mitton[24] Megan Mitton
Dieppe Roger Melanson
Moncton East Monique LeBlanc[23] Monique LeBlanc
Moncton Centre Rob McKee
Moncton South Cathy Rogers†[35]
Moncton Northwest Ernie Steeves
Moncton Southwest Sherry Wilson
Riverview R. Bruce Fitch Troy Bertiet[29] R. Bruce Fitch
Albert Sharon Buchanan [29] Mike Holland
Gagetown-Petitcodiac Ross Wetmore John Urquhart[23] Ross Wetmore

Southern
Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 Progressive Conservatives Liberal Green PANB NDPOther
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins Jim Bedford[29] Bruce Northrup†[36]
Hampton Gary Crossman[37] Gary Crossman
Quispamsis Blaine Higgs[37] Caitlin Grogan[38] Blaine Higgs
Rothesay Ted Flemming[37] Michael Griffin[29] Ted Flemming
Saint John East Glen Savoie[39] Glen Savoie
Portland-Simonds Trevor Holder[39] Trevor Holder
Saint John Harbour Barry Ogden[40] or Arlene Dunn [41] Alice McKim[42] Brent Harris[43] Courtney Pyrke [44] Gerry Lowe†[45]
Saint John Lancaster Dorothy Shephard[39] Dorothy Shephard
Kings Centre Bill Oliver[39] Bill Oliver
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West Andrea Anderson-Mason
Saint Croix Kathy Bockus[46] John Gardner[23] Andrew Sutton[24] Rod Cumberland[29] Vacant

Capital Region
Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 Progressive Conservatives Liberal Green PANB NDPOther
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton Mary E. Wilson[37] Craig Rector[29] Mary E. Wilson
Fredericton-Grand Lake Kris Austin[29] Kris Austin
New Maryland-Sunbury Jennifer Smith [47] Morris Shannon[29] Jeff Carr
Fredericton South David Coon[24] David Coon
Fredericton North Jill Green [48] Stephen Horsman[23] Luke Randall[24] Allen Price[29] Mackenzie Thomason[49] Stephen Horsman
Fredericton-York Rick DeSaulniers[29] Rick DeSaulniers
Fredericton West-Hanwell Dominic Cardy[37] Chris Duffie[23] Dominic Cardy
Carleton-York Gary Lemmon [29] Carl Urquhart†[50]

Upper River Valley
Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
 Progressive Conservatives Liberal Green PANB NDPOther
Carleton Theresa Blackburn[23] Greg Crouse[24] Graham Gill [29] Stewart Fairgrieve†[51]
Carleton-Victoria Andrew Harvey
Victoria-La Vallée Chuck Chiasson
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre Jean-Claude (JC) D'Amours
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston Francine Landry

Notes
    gollark: I don't think it has indentation-based syntax, so æ.
    gollark: Hmm, yes, fair.
    gollark: > you already did it?... it's time travel, so yes.
    gollark: Done. Unfortunately, someone else invented them next year.
    gollark: Deploying... apiotemporohazards?

    References
    1. Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick. "An Act to Amend the Legislative Assembly Act". Retrieved November 27, 2018.
    2. Poitras, Jacques (2020-08-17). "Blaine Higgs calls New Brunswick election for Sept. 14, despite pandemic". CBC News.
    3. MacDonald, Michael (September 24, 2018). "New Brunswick Tories win most seats, but Liberals will try to stay in power". CTV News. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
    4. Fraser, Elizabeth (September 25, 2018). "Liberals and PCs continue battle over who will govern N.B." CBC News. Retrieved September 27, 2018.
    5. "New Brunswick Tory leader Blaine Higgs calls on Premier Brian Gallant to resign". The Canadian Press. September 27, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
    6. Donkin, Karissa (September 24, 2018). "People's Alliance wins 3 seats in 'significant breakthrough'". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
    7. Fraser, Elizabeth (September 24, 2018). "David Coon will head back to house with 2 other Green MLAs". CBC News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
    8. Fraser, Elizabeth (September 26, 2018). "Liberals court Greens for governing partnership". CBC News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
    9. "Four-year deal between New Brunswick Tories, smaller party ideal for stability: Higgs". The Canadian Press. October 1, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
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    11. Brian Gallant's minority government defeated after losing confidence vote
    12. Bisset, Kevin (November 9, 2018). "Blaine Higgs sworn-in as New Brunswick premier". The Canadian Press.
    13. Brian Gallant resigns as N.B. Liberal leader after election loss
    14. "Kevin Vickers officially acclaimed as leader of New Brunswick Liberals". CTV News. The Canadian Press. April 17, 2019. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
    15. Poitras, Jacques (14 February 2020). "Gauvin resigns as deputy premier, will sit as an independent". CBC News. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
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    17. Bissett, Kevin (2020-02-14). "New Brunswick deputy premier Robert Gauvin quits minority Tory government over health-care reforms". The Globe and Mail.
    18. Brown, Laura (2020-03-03). "N.B. anticipates upcoming budget". CTV News.
    19. Brown, Laura; April, Allan (2020-08-10). "N.B. premier proposes set election date deal to opposition parties". CTV News.
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    22. Brown, Laura; Van Horne, Ryan (2020-08-17). "New Brunswick premier calls early election during pandemic". CTV News.
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    24. "Nomination Status". Green Party of New Brunswick.
    25. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10158464006956427&set=a.155420526426&type=3
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    28. https://www.facebook.com/josh.shad/posts/10158818598414078
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    46. https://www.facebook.com/KathyBockusPCcandidate/
    47. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10161392551330898&set=a.10151390996310898&type=3
    48. https://www.facebook.com/jill.green.fton/videos/1004808119978559/
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    50. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10158669838825050&set=a.10151806639650050&type=3
    51. https://www.facebook.com/rick.mcguire.31/posts/10158422033435659
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