2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

The 2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wisconsin, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9, 2016.

2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Ron Johnson Russ Feingold
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,479,471 1,380,335
Percentage 50.2% 46.8%
County results
Johnson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Feingold:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Ron Johnson
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Ron Johnson
Republican

Elections in Wisconsin

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson was re-elected to a second term in office. Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, whom Johnson unseated in the 2010 midterm election, sought a rematch for a fourth non-consecutive term in office but was again defeated by Johnson, who became the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin in a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980. Kasten was ultimately unseated by Feingold in 1992.[1] Johnson's victory was considered an upset, as most polling had Feingold in the lead.

Background

In 2010, then-incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term in 2010 but was defeated by Republican nominee Ron Johnson.[2]

In March 2013, Johnson announced that he had begun fundraising for his campaign. At that time, he had just $1,529 remaining in his campaign account after raising $16.1 million for the 2010 election, over half of which he self-funded.[3] Johnson said in November 2014 that he would not self-finance another campaign, saying: "I made my $9 million investment in this country. I gave it once, I don't think I should do it again."[4] On May 14, 2015, Feingold announced he would run to win back his former Senate seat.[5] Ultimately, Feingold spent over $24 million on the campaign and ended up with more remaining cash than Johnson, who spent only $20 million.[6]

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Wisconsin was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to retake their majority in the traditionally blue state.[7][8][9][10][11] Politico pointed to Johnson's "worrisome" favorability ratings as one of the main reasons for his vulnerability.[10] A March 2014 Marquette University Law School poll found that just 29% of voters had a favorable opinion of him.[12]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa[5]
  • Scott Harbach, perennial candidate

Declined

Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Russ Feingold 303,282 90.14%
Democratic Scott Harbach 33,185 9.86%
Total votes 336,467 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Debates
Dates Location Johnson Feingold Link
October 14, 2016 Green Bay, Wisconsin Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 18, 2016 Milwaukee, Wisconsin Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements
Ron Johnson (R)
Presidents
State Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[24]
Organizations
Russ Feingold (D)
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Wisconsin State Senators
Labor unions
Organizations

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[50] Tossup November 4, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] Lean D November 3, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[52] Tilt D November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[53] Lean D September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[54] Tossup November 8, 2016

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Ron
Johnson (R)		 Russ
Feingold (D)		 Phil
Anderson (L)		 Other/Neither Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 2,246 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,943 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 1,568 ± 4.6% 48% 49% — — 3%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–2, 2016 1,129 ± 2.9% 46% 49% — — 5%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 1,271 ± 4.6% 48% 48% — — 4%
Public Policy Polling October 31–November 1, 2016 891 ± 3.3% 44% 49% — — 7%
Loras College October 31–November 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 47% 2% — 6%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 1,103 ± 4.6% 50% 48% — — 2%
Marquette University October 26–31, 2016 1,190 LV ± 3.5% 44% 45% 3% 2% 3%
1,401 RV ± 3.3% 42% 43% 5% 3% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,195 ± 4.6% 49% 49% — — 2%
Emerson College October 27–28, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 44% 49% — 4% 3%
Let America Work^ October 18–20, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 48% 2% — 4%
Club for Growth^ October 18–20, 2016 400 ± 4.2% 42% 45% — — 13%
Public Policy Polling October 18–19, 2016 804 ± 3.5% 41% 47% — — 12%
Monmouth University October 15–18, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 44% 52% 2% — 2%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College October 13–16, 2016 664 ± 3.8% 40% 52% 0% 3% 5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,076 ± 0.5% 46% 51% — — 3%
Google Consumer Surveys October 12–14, 2016 551 ± 4.2% 39% 58% — — 3%
Marquette University October 6–9, 2016 839 LV ± 3.9% 44% 46% 4% 1% 4%
46% 48% — 1% 4%
1,000 RV ± 3.7% 42% 44% 6% 1% 6%
44% 47% — 2% 5%
CBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016 993 ± 4.3% 42% 45% — — 13%
Loras College October 4–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% — 3% 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 4, 2016 1,102 ± 3.0% 41% 53% — — 6%
Emerson College September 19–20, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 42% 52% — 3% 4%
Marquette University September 15–18, 2016 642 LV ± 4.8% 39% 44% 7% — 10%
41% 47% — — 8%
802 RV ± 4.4% 37% 44% 8% — 10%
40% 46% — — 11%
Monmouth University August 27–30, 2016 404 ± 4.9% 41% 54% 2% — 3%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,054 ± 3.0% 42% 49% — — 9%
Marquette University August 25–28, 2016 650 LV ± 5.0% 42% 45% 6% — 7%
45% 48% — — 7%
803 RV ± 4.5% 38% 42% 8% — 12%
42% 46% — — 12%
Global Strategy Group August 25, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 37% 55% — — 8%
Let America Work^ August 21–22, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 50% — — 3%
Marquette University August 4–7, 2016 683 LV ± 5.0% 39% 50% 7% — 4%
42% 53% — — 6%
805 RV ± 4.5% 38% 47% 7% — 8%
43% 49% — — 8%
Let America Work^ July 30–August 1, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 50% — — 6%
Global Strategy Group July 20, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 41% 52% — — 7%
Marquette University July 7–10, 2016 665 LV ± 4.5% 40% 46% 7% — 7%
44% 49% — — 7%
801 RV ± 4.1% 38% 45% 8% — 9%
41% 48% — — 11%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 843 ± 3.4% 37% 50% — — 13%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 45% 46% — — 9%
Marquette University June 9–12, 2016 666 LV ± 4.9% 42% 51% — — 7%
800 RV ± 4.4% 41% 45% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 853 ± 3.4% 41% 51% — — 8%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College April 12–15, 2016 616 ± 4.0% 41% 51% — — 6%
Emerson College March 30–April 3, 2016 1,198 ± 2.8% 44% 48% — 8% —
Public Policy Polling March 28–29, 2016 1,397 ± 2.6% 39% 46% — — 15%
Loras College March 28–29, 2016 1,000 ± 3.1% 39% 48% — 1% 12%
Marquette University March 24–28, 2016 957 LV ± 4.1% 45% 48% — — 7%
1,405 RV ± 3.3% 42% 47% — — 11%
Marquette University February 18–21, 2016 802 RV ± 4.5% 37% 49% — — 14%
Marquette University January 21–24, 2016 806 RV ± 4.0% 37% 50% — — 13%
Let America Work^ November 16–18, 2015 900 ± 3.3% 44% 45% — — 11%
Marquette University November 12–15, 2015 803 RV ± 4.2% 38% 49% — — 13%
Democracy Corps October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 46% 51% — — 3%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College October 14–17, 2015 603 ± 4.0% 40% 51% — 2% 7%
Marquette University September 24–28, 2015 803 RV ± 4.1% 36% 50% — 7% 7%
End Citizens United September 10–14, 2015 775 ± 3.6% 39% 47% — — 14%
Marquette University August 13–16, 2015 802 RV ± 3.5% 42% 47% — — 12%
Marquette University April 7–10, 2015 803 RV ± 3.5% 38% 54% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 41% 50% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling April 17–20, 2014 1,144 ± 2.9% 41% 47% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,180 ± 2.9% 42% 49% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 2013 807 ± 2.3% 42% 52% — — 6%

^ Internal poll taken for Ron Johnson.

Results
2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin[55]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Ron Johnson (incumbent) 1,479,471 50.17% -1.69%
Democratic Russ Feingold 1,380,335 46.81% -0.21%
Libertarian Phil Anderson 87,531 2.97% N/A
Write-in 1,404 0.05% +0.01%
Total votes 2,948,741 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including the Democratic held 3rd.[56]

District Johnson Feingold Representative
1st 56% 42% Paul Ryan
2nd 30% 67% Mark Pocan
3rd 49% 47% Ron Kind
4th 26% 71% Gwen Moore
5th 63% 35% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 58% 38% Glenn Grothman
7th 57% 40% Sean Duffy
8th 59% 38% Reid Ribble
Mike Gallagher
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References
  1. "Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race".
  2. "Election 2010 Wisconsin Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2011. Retrieved February 27, 2011.
  3. Bivins, Larry (March 11, 2013). "Wis. Sen. Johnson begins re-election bid". USA Today. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  4. Catalina Camia (November 19, 2014). "Johnson won't self-finance 2016 Senate race". Green Bay Press Gazette. Retrieved November 21, 2014.
  5. Bauer, Scott (May 14, 2015). "Wisconsin's Feingold to Run for US Senate". Associated Press.
  6. "Wisconsin 2016 Senate Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
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  8. "Here's The Democratic Route Back To Senate Control In 2016". The Huffington Post. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  9. "The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016". Slate. July 3, 2014. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  10. "The 10 states that could decide the next Senate". Politico. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  11. "Tough Tests Looming in 2016 Raise Stakes for G.O.P. in Midterm Elections". The New York Times. April 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  12. "Marquette Law School Poll, March 20-23, 2014" (PDF). Marquette University Law School. March 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
  13. Mulvany, Lydia (March 11, 2013). "Sen. Ron Johnson says he'll seek re-election in 2016". JS Online. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  14. "Mary Burke says she won't run for statewide office again". Wisconsin State Journal. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 10, 2014.
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  17. Pocan, Mark (May 14, 2015). "Did you see the big news today?". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
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  19. Tokars, Mike (June 20, 2016). "GOP Calls In The Big Gun: George W. Bush is on the campaign trail". The National Memo. Retrieved June 21, 2016.
  20. Walker, Scott (October 15, 2016). "If you think Obamacare is a success, then vote for Sen. Feingold. If not, vote for Ron Johnson. #WISen". Twitter. Retrieved October 15, 2016.
  21. http://www.wpr.org/lindsey-graham-campaigns-ron-johnson-wisconsin
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  33. Tammy Baldwin (May 18, 2015). "Have you heard? My good friend Russ Feingold is running for Senate! He's a champion of Wisconsin's progressive values, and was a friend to me in my race in 2012. Let's help him get off to a running start -- contribute to his campaign today! - TB". Facebook. Retrieved May 18, 2015.
  34. Terkel, Amanda (May 26, 2016). "Bernie Sanders fundraising for Russ Feingold". The Huffington Post. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
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  49. Easley, Cameron (September 20, 2016). "Bernie Sanders' Group Endorses Deborah Ross". Morning Consult. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
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  55. "2016 General Election" (PDF). State of Wisconsin. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
  56. http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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