Next Catalan regional election

The next Catalan regional election will be held no later than Friday, 4 February 2022, to elect the 13th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Next Catalan regional election

No later than 4 February 2022 (Tentatively scheduled for late 2020)[lower-alpha 1]
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia 68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Lorena Roldán Pere Aragonès Carles Puigdemont[lower-alpha 2] Party Cs ERC–CatSí Junts Leader since 26 July 2019 15 September 2019 18 July 2020 Leader's seat Tarragona — — Last election 36 seats, 25.4% 32 seats, 21.4% 20 seats (JxCat)[lower-alpha 3] Current seats 36 32 21 Seats needed 32 36 47   Leader Miquel Iceta TBD Jéssica Albiach Party PSC–PSOE PDeCAT CatComú–Podem Leader since 19 July 2014 — 18 September 2018 Leader's seat Barcelona — Barcelona Last election 17 seats, 13.9% 14 seats (JxCat)[lower-alpha 3] 8 seats, 7.5% Current seats 17 12 8 Seats needed 51 56 60   Leader Carles Riera Alejandro Fernández Party CUP PP Leader since 15 November 2017 10 November 2018 Leader's seat Barcelona Tarragona Last election 4 seats, 4.5% 4 seats, 4.2% Current seats 4 4 Seats needed 64 64
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Catalonia
Incumbent President Quim Torra Junts

After the 2017 election, pro-Catalan independence parties secured a parliamentary majority, electing Quim Torra as new Catalan president after attempts to have Carles Puigdemont and Jordi Turull elected to the office were foiled by Spanish courts. On 19 December 2019, Torra was sentenced by the High Court of Justice of Catalonia (TSJC) to a year and a half of disqualification from holding any elected office and/or from exercising government powers, in addition to a fine of €30,000, for disobeying the Central Electoral Commission (JEC) by not withdrawing partisan symbols from the Palau de la Generalitat's facade and not guaranteeing the institution's neutrality during the April 2019 Spanish general election campaign.[6][7] The JEC determined that Torra was to be immediately stripped of his status as legislator, a decision made effective on 27 January 2020 with the approval of the parliament's speaker, Roger Torrent.[8] This sparked a crisis within the governing coalition formed by Together for Catalonia (JxCat) and Torrent's party Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC),[9] leading Torra to announce on 29 January that he would call a snap election once the 2020 budget got the final approval of parliament in March.[10][11]

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[12]

As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure comes regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the Organic Law of General Electoral Regime.[lower-alpha 4] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Catalans abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[13] The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats: 85 for Barcelona, 17 for Girona, 15 for Lleida and 18 for Tarragona.[12][14]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[15]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The regional president is required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 21 December 2017, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 21 December 2021. The election is required to be called no later than 6 December 2021, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Friday, 4 February 2022.[12]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[12]

On 29 January 2020, President Quim Torra announced that he would be calling a snap election to be held at some point throughout 2020 once the parliamentary procedures for the budget's approval were finalized,[11] after a government crisis erupted between Together for Catalonia (JxCat) and Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) over Torra's being stripped of his status as legislator,[9][10] resulting from a court ruling condemning Torra for disobeying the Central Electoral Commission by not withdrawing partisan symbols from the Palau de la Generalitat's facade and not guaranteeing the institution's neutrality during the April 2019 Spanish general election campaign.[6][7]

While the budget's parliamentary transaction timetable was due to be over by 18 March, meaning that an election could be held as soon as Monday, 11 May, if called immediately—or 17 May if the long-term tradition of holding elections on a Sunday is kept[1][2]—members from both JxCat and ERC hinted that the election could be delayed until after the summer, to be held in September–October 2020.[3][4] The risk existed that, in the meantime, the Supreme Court issued a firm ruling on Torra's disqualification that removed him from the president's office and thus deprived him of the prerogative of parliament dissolution.[2][5] The announcement of a possible snap 2020 election in Catalonia had the immediate side effect of triggering an early election in the Basque Country for 5 April, as Lehendakari Iñigo Urkullu sought to distance himself from the convoluted Catalan political landscape by avoiding any interference with the Basque election, which was initially not scheduled until autumn 2020.[16] This in turn precipitated the end of the legislature in Galicia, with regional president Alberto Núñez Feijóo announcing a snap election to be held simultaneously with the Basque one.[17]

In July 2020, it was revealed that former Catalan president and Torra's protector Carles Puigdemont initially sought to have the election being held on 4 October 2020, in order for his upcoming political party to benefit from the pro-independence nostalgia of the Diada and the third anniversary of the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, which would require the Parliament to be dissolved on 12 August.[18][19] However, severe COVID-19 outbreaks in the Lleida/Segrià and Barcelona metropolitan areas in mid-July forced these plans to be delayed, with the election now speculated to be held at some point during November.[20][21]

Parliamentary status

Further information: 12th Parliament of Catalonia

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.[22]

Current parliamentary composition[23]

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Citizens's Parliamentary Group		Cs	36	36
	Together for Catalonia's Parliamentary Group		Junts	21[lower-alpha 5]	33
			PDeCAT	12[lower-alpha 6]
	Republican Parliamentary Group		ERC	30	32
			DC	2
	Socialists' and United to Advance Parliamentary Group		PSC	16	17
			Els Units	1
	Catalonia in Common–We Can's Parliamentary Group		CatComú	4	8
			Podem	4
	Mixed Group		CUP	4	8
			PP	4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[26]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Lorena Roldán	Liberalism	25.35%	36	N	[27]
	Junts	List Together for Catalonia (JxCat) – Action for the Republic (AxR) – The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV) – Independence Rally (RI.cat)		Carles Puigdemont[lower-alpha 2]	Catalan independence	21.66%[lower-alpha 7]	34	Y	[28] [29] [30]
	PDeCAT	List Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT)		TBD	Catalan independence Liberalism			Y	[31] [32] [33]
	ERC–CatSí	List Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) Catalonia Yes (CatSí) Democrats of Catalonia (DC) Left Movement (MES)		Pere Aragonès	Catalan independence Social democracy	21.38%	32	Y	[34] [35] [36]
	PSC–PSOE	List Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) United to Advance (Els Units)		Miquel Iceta	Social democracy	13.86%	17	N	[37]
	CatComú– Podem	List Catalunya en Comú (CatComú) – Barcelona in Common (BComú) – United Left Catalonia (EUCat) – Equo (Equo) We Can (Podem)		Jéssica Albiach	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Eco-socialism	7.46%	8	N	[38] [39]
	CUP	List Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) – Forward–Socialist Organization of National Liberation (Endavant–OSAN) – Free People (PL–PPCC) – Internationalist Struggle (LI–CI)		Carles Riera	Catalan independence Anti-capitalism Socialism	4.46%	4	N
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Alejandro Fernández	Conservatism Christian democracy	4.24%	4	N	[40]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Ignacio Garriga	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	Did not contest		N	[41]

After Torra's announcement of a snap election to be held at some point throughout 2020, speculation arose that both Citizens (Cs) and the People's Party (PP) would try to form a Navarra Suma-inspired electoral alliance of right-from-centre political forces ahead of the election after both parties had shown a willingness to such agreement.[42][43] Far-right party Vox discarded itself from joining any such coalition and announced that it would run on its own instead.[44] On 31 January 2020, Cs spokesperson in the Congress of Deputies Inés Arrimadas hinted at the possibility of such agreement being exported to Galicia and the Basque Country as well under the "Better United" umbrella (Spanish: Mejor Unidos), excluding Vox from such arrangement.[45][46] The heavy defeat of the similar PP+Cs formula in the 12 July Basque election sparked doubts within the regional PP's branch over the electoral viability of such an alliance in Catalonia,[47] despite national PP leader Pablo Casado remaining favourable to it.[48] Former French prime minister Manuel Valls—who had run in the 2019 Barcelona municipal election within Cs's lists and had broken up with Albert Rivera's party shortly afterwards—was also said to be considering launching his own bid for the regional election,[49] but Arrimadas's appointment as Cs leader had resulted in both parties mending their ties and exploring the possibilities of a joint platform.[50]

In July 2020, following the failure of negotiations between the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT) and former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont for the reorganization of the post-convergent space under the Together for Catalonia (JxCat) umbrella because of the former's refusal to dissolve itself as a party, Puigdemont announced the founding of a new personalist party ahead of the upcoming regional election,[51] wrestling control over the JxCat's brand away from the PDeCAT for his own use,[52][53] and breaking all ties with his former party.[54][55] The new party—a new Together for Catalonia (Junts) which would advocate for the goal of achieving unilateral independence—was to be formed by the merger of the National Call for the Republic (CNxR), Action for the Republic (AxR) and splinter elements from the PDeCAT,[56] while considering the incorporation of ERC-aligned Democrats of Catalonia (DC)—being pushed away from ERC over the latter's more pro-agreement, bilateral stances[57]—as well as breaking up the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) by inviting the more pro-independence Poble Lliure into Puigdemont's list.[58][59][60] Junts's formation process was started on 18 July with the public presentation of its imagery.[61][62] By mid-to-late July, Puigdemont's allies had been publicly calling for disgruntled members within a deeply-fractured PDeCAT to join their new Junts party upon its founding congress,[63][64][65] leading Independence Rally (RI.cat) to forfeit its collaboration agreement with the former, which it had maintained since 2013.[66]

The crisis within the post-convergent political space had also seen the founding of a new party, the Nationalist Party of Catalonia (PNC), from splinter elements of the PDeCAT opposing the idea of unilateral independence and disenchanted with Puigdemont's growing influence, with former coordinator-general Marta Pascal at its helm.[67][68] On 15 July 2020, it was announced that several parties resulting from the Convergence and Union (CiU) break up, namely Free (Lliures), Convergents (CNV) and Democratic League (LD), had agreed to form an electoral alliance ahead of the upcoming regional election,[69][70] with the PNC and Ramon Espadaler's United to Advance (Els Units)—until then allied to the PSC—considering joining the new coalition as well.[71][72] On 23 July, Lliures, CNV and LD announced the creation of a joint commission to begin the drafting of a future electoral programme and invited Units, the PNC and the "moderate" sectors still in the PDeCAT—who favoured an alliance outside of Puigdemont's sphere of influence[73]—to join into a "a broad centre alternative that included Catalanists and sovereignists".[74]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout											Lead
GESOP/CEO[p 1]	25 Jun–21 Jul 2020	2,000	70	14.4 19	20.9 32/33	22.1 33/34	17.0 24	8.2 9/10	4.9 6/7	5.5 6/7	4.0 3/4	–	–	1.2
GESOP/El Periódico[p 2]	6–13 Jul 2020	1,479	?	11.9 15/16	19.3 29/30	22.5 34/35	17.9 25/26	7.9 9/10	5.4 7/8	6.1 7/8	5.4 5/6	–	–	3.2
Feedback/El Nacional[p 3]	29 Jun–2 Jul 2020	800	?	9.5 12/13	17.8 28	27.4 41/42	19.7 26/28	6.6 7	6.2 8	5.7 6	5.1 5	–	0.8 0	7.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4][p 5]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	9.6 13	21.2 32	21.1 32	19.5 26	8.7 10	6.5 8	8.7 11	3.5 3	–	–	0.1
GESOP/El Periódico[p 6]	29 Apr–8 May 2020	1,455	?	12.9 17/18	16.8 25/26	25.2 40/41	18.0 25/26	7.7 8/9	6.1 8	6.3 7/8	3.8 4	–	–	7.2
GESOP/CEO[p 7]	10 Feb–9 Mar 2020	2,000	70	12.8 16/18	18.6 28/30	23.0 33/35	17.4 23/24	10.9 13/14	7.1 8/9	5.5 7/8	3.0 0/2	–	–	4.4
GAD3/ABC[p 8][75]	21–26 Feb 2020	800	?	8.9 12	15.4 24	28.1 43	20.8 27	8.1 10	4.9 6	7.2 9	4.4 4	–	–	7.3
KeyData/Público[p 9]	6 Feb 2020	?	80.9	12.0 17	19.1 30	23.7 35	18.0 24	9.1 11	7.0 9	4.6 5	4.0 4	–	–	4.6
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 10][p 11]	3–6 Feb 2020	800	70.7	[lower-alpha 8]	20.0 31	25.2 38	21.1 27	8.9 10	5.2 7	[lower-alpha 8]	3.7 3	14.5 19	–	4.1
			70.7	8.5 12	19.8 31	24.9 37	20.3 27	8.8 10	5.1 6	6.7 8	4.4 4	–	–	4.6
ERC[p 12]	2 Feb 2020	?	?	–	? 25	? 37	? 28	–	? 10	–	–	–	–	?
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 13][p 14]	2 Feb 2020	?	?	[lower-alpha 8]	18.6 29	23.0 35	19.4 25	10.0 12	6.2 8	[lower-alpha 8]	4.8 5	17.0 21/23	–	3.6
			?	10.9 14	18.6 29	23.0 35	19.4 25	10.0 12	6.2 8	6.1 7	4.8 5	–	–	3.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 15]	27–31 Jan 2020	1,000	73.8	10.3 14	19.5 31	21.0 32	17.4 24	8.3 10	5.9 8	8.9 12	6.3 4	–	–	1.5
GESOP/El Periódico[p 16]	27–31 Jan 2020	1,435	?	12.8 16/17	19.0 29/30	22.0 33/34	16.9 22/23	9.4 11/12	6.6 8/9	4.8 5/6	5.5 6/7	–	–	3.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 17][p 18]	27–29 Jan 2020	1,500	?	[lower-alpha 8]	20.0 30	20.7 31	20.1 26	8.8 10	7.8 10	[lower-alpha 8]	5.0 5	16.7 23	–	0.6
			?	7.4 9	20.0 31	20.7 31	19.4 27	8.8 10	7.8 10	8.4 11	6.2 6	–	–	0.7
CatComú[p 19]	Dec 2019	1,002	?	12.1	15.6	25.3	20.9	10.8	5.3	4.3	5.0	–	–	4.4
GESOP/CEO[p 20]	14 Nov–5 Dec 2019	1,500	70	12.0 14/16	19.0 29/31	25.4 38/39	18.0 24/25	10.2 11/13	7.3 9/10	4.3 4/5	2.0 0/2	–	–	6.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 21]	27–30 Nov 2019	2,000	?	7.2 9	15.8 24	22.0 34	18.4 25	8.1 10	10.0 13	7.9 10	7.5 10	–	–	3.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 22]	18–22 Nov 2019	1,000	74.4	11.6 17	19.2 31	21.2 32	16.8 24	7.7 9	5.6 7	8.8 12	6.4 3	–	–	2.0
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	N/A	69.4	5.6 6	13.7 22	22.6 35	20.5 29	14.2 18	6.4 7	7.4 10	6.3 8	–	–	1.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 23]	16–19 Oct 2019	2,000	?	15.1 21	12.3 19	24.5 38	17.6 24	8.2 10	10.5 13	6.0 7	3.3 3	–	–	6.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 24]	14–15 Oct 2019	1,000	?	13.1 18	15.1 24	24.3 37	20.2 26	8.0 10	7.9 11	5.0 5	4.0 4	–	–	4.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 25][p 26]	1–5 Oct 2019	1,000	71.1	19.0 27	15.1 23	24.0 39	19.9 28	5.9 7	5.4 5	5.5 6	1.9 0	–	–	4.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 27]	11 Sep 2019	?	?	15.2 21	15.8 24	25.3 40	20.1 29	7.6 8	5.4 5	6.3 8	1.8 0	–	–	5.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 28][p 29]	3–7 Sep 2019	1,000	71.3	21.1 29	14.0 21	25.6 41	19.1 27	6.2 7	4.9 5	4.8 5	2.2 0	–	–	4.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 30]	20 Aug 2019	?	?	14.5 20	15.5 24	26.4 40	20.3 29	7.1 8	6.0 7	6.0 7	2.0 0	–	–	6.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 31]	17 Jul 2019	?	?	14.1 19	15.3 24	26.7 41	20.1 29	7.1 8	6.1 7	6.2 7	2.1 0	–	–	6.6
GESOP/CEO[p 32]	25 Jun–17 Jul 2019	1,500	70	17.0 23/24	16.6 25/27	26.5 38/40	18.7 25	9.5 11/12	5.2 6/7	3.5 3	–	–	–	7.8
GESOP/El Periódico[p 33]	1–5 Jul 2019	1,422	?	16.5 22/23	16.5 24/25	26.5 40/41	20.0 28/29	7.0 8/9	5.5 7/8	4.0 3/4	–	–	–	6.5
2019 EP election	26 May 2019	N/A	60.9	8.6 12	28.6 44	21.2 33	22.1 31	8.4 9	–	5.2 6	2.0 0	–	–	6.5
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	N/A	74.6	11.6 13	12.1 22	24.6 39	23.2 32	14.9 20	2.7* 0	4.8 5	3.6 4	–	–	1.4
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 34]	4–25 Mar 2019	1,500	70	21.6 28/29	14.9 22/24	28.1 40/43	16.5 21/23	7.0 8/9	6.5 8	4.0 3/4	–	–	–	3.7
GESOP/El Periódico[p 35]	10 Feb 2019	1,468	?	21.5 30/31	15.0 23/24	25.5 39/40	15.5 21/22	7.5 9/10	6.5 8/9	4.0 2	2.5 0	–	–	4.0
NC Report/La Razón[p 36][p 37]	24 Dec 2018	?	74.5	25.0 37	14.9 23	24.1 38	15.0 19	7.7 8	5.0 5	4.4 5	2.0 0	–	–	0.9
Opinòmetre/Ara[p 38]	3–12 Dec 2018	800	?	23.4 33/35	16.2 25/26	25.7 38/40	13.9 17/18	7.1 7/8	8.3 10/11	2.5 0	1.1 0	–	–	2.3
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 39]	22 Oct–12 Nov 2018	1,500	68	21.4 29/30	14.8 23/24	25.1 36/38	14.5 17/18	10.4 12/13	8.5 10/11	3.3 2/3	–	–	–	3.7
GESOP/El Periódico[p 40]	22–25 Oct 2018	739	?	22.5 30/31	14.5 22/23	25.3 37/39	17.3 23/24	7.5 8/9	7.4 9/10	3.5 3	–	–	–	2.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 41][p 42]	24–28 Sep 2018	1,000	?	23.7 35	16.2 25	23.9 37	15.8 20	6.5 8	3.9 4	5.3 6	–	–	–	0.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 43]	16–18 Sep 2018	?	?	21.9 30	14.9 22	27.7 42	16.1 22	7.0 8	7.0 9	3.2 2	–	–	–	5.8
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 44]	22–30 Aug 2018	500	?	22.3 31/33	18.4 25/27	25.1 35/37	14.9 20/22	7.3 8/9	5.5 6/7	5.1 5/6	–	–	–	2.8
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 45]	23 Jun–14 Jul 2018	1,500	70	21.4 29/30	17.9 27/29	24.0 35/37	15.5 19/21	7.8 8/10	7.0 8/10	3.8 3/4	–	–	–	2.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 46]	2–11 Jul 2018	1,445	?	21.5 29/30	16.5 26/27	23.5 35/36	15.5 21/22	8.5 9/10	6.5 8/9	4.5 4/5	–	–	–	2.0
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 47]	14–21 Jun 2018	800	75	24.0 34	20.1 30	24.3 35	14.6 19	7.0 8	4.5 5	4.1 4	–	–	–	0.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 48]	3–7 Jun 2018	?	?	21.3 29	20.4 29	20.7 29	16.3 23	7.6 10	7.6 10	4.9 5	–	–	–	0.8
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 49]	7–27 Apr 2018	1,500	68	24.5 33/34	19.8 30/32	20.5 29/32	11.0 13/15	9.5 11	9.0 11	4.1 3/4	–	–	–	4.0
NC Report/La Razón[p 50][p 51]	17–20 Apr 2018	1,000	76.9	26.0 38	18.7 31	21.8 32	15.2 18	5.4 7	3.8 4	4.5 5	–	–	–	4.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 52][p 53]	22–28 Mar 2018	1,000	76.8	25.7 38	19.4 32	21.0 31	14.9 18	6.0 7	4.2 4	4.8 5	–	–	–	4.7
Apolda/CEO[p 54]	10–30 Jan 2018	1,200	68	24.7 33/35	19.5 29/31	22.9 33/35	12.5 15/16	7.4 8	6.0 7/8	4.6 3/4	–	–	–	1.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 55][p 56]	15–19 Jan 2018	1,000	75.2	24.9 37	22.4 34	20.6 31	14.3 17	6.9 7	3.5 4	5.9 5	–	–	–	2.5
2017 regional election	21 Dec 2017	N/A	79.1	25.4 36	21.7 34	21.4 32	13.9 17	7.5 8	4.5 4	4.2 4	–	–	–	3.7
(*) Results for Republican Front.

Notes

1. The parliamentary transaction of the 2020 budget is due to be over by 18 March. From there, 11 May 2020 would be the earliest possible date for a snap election to be held if called immediately thereafter, with 17 May being the first possible Sunday available.[1][2] However, sources within both JxCat and ERC have suggested a post-summer election would be more likely,[3][4] still pending a firm ruling from the Supreme Court of Spain on Quim Torra's disqualification as president which would remove from him the power of dissolving parliament.[2][5]
2. Currently in self-exile in Belgium.
3. Within the Together for Catalonia alliance in the 2017 election. Totals for Together for Catalonia (2020) refer to independent candidates elected within JuntsxCat's lists, who ended up joining Puigdemont-aligned parties such as National Call for the Republic or Action for the Republic.
4. Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.
5. Including 3 AxR and 1 EV–AV deputies. Not including Quim Torra, who was stripped of his status as legislator on 27 January 2020.[8]
6. PDeCAT deputies Albert Batet, Miquel Buch, Anna Erra, Imma Gallardo, Marta Madrenas, Jordi Munell, Ferran Roquer, Mònica Sales and Francesc Ten are either aligned or sympathetic to CNxR/Junts.[24][25]
7. Results for Together for Catalonia in the 2017 election.
8. Within PP+Cs.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2020" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 31 July 2020.
2. "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: Esquerra se mantiene pese a la presión de JxCat". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 19 July 2020.
3. "ERC guanyaria les eleccions amb comoditat i l'independentisme superaria el 50%". El Nacional (in Catalan). 6 July 2020.
4. "EP (17My): Cataluña – JxCat ganaría las elecciones a ERC por una décima. Entra Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
5. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
6. "ERC ganaría las elecciones con holgura y podría elegir entre JxCat o la izquierda". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 18 May 2020.
7. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2020" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 20 March 2020.
8. "ERC ganaría con claridad los comicios y podría sumar con JpC o la izquierda". ABC (in Spanish). 2 March 2020.
9. "Sondeos: ERC superaría a JxC y los tres partidos independentistas sumarían más votos que los constitucionalistas". Público (in Spanish). 6 February 2020.
10. "ERC ganaría las elecciones catalanas al frente de una reforzada mayoría independentista". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 February 2020.
11. "El escenario electoral si concurriera CAT Suma". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 February 2020.
12. "Reto independentista en las urnas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 2 February 2020.
13. "ERC tendría mayoría absoluta con los partidos catalanes de Sánchez (PSC) e Iglesias (En Comú)". El Español (in Spanish). 2 February 2020.
14. "Una coalición entre Cs y PP sumaría hoy poco más de la mitad de escaños que tuvieron en 2017". El Español (in Spanish). 2 February 2020.
15. "El tripartito catalán no suma y complica la legislatura". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 February 2020.
16. "ERC podría elegir entre JxCat y la izquierda para gobernar". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 1 February 2020.
17. "CatPanel (29e): subidón de JxCat que alcanza a ERC y reconquista muchos municipios de Cataluña". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 January 2020.
18. "CatPanel 29e (II): Cataluña Suma, sumaría escaños y se colocaría como cuarta fuerza en el Parlament". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 January 2020.
19. "Un sondeo de los 'comuns' les sitúa a punto de alcanzar a Cs". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 29 January 2020.
20. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2019" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 20 December 2019.
21. "CatPanel (30N – II): el empuje de CUP y JxCat da impulso al independentismo, pese a la bajada de ERC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 November 2019.
22. "La negociación con Sánchez castigaría a ERC en las urnas". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 November 2019.
23. "CatPanel (20Oct): fuerte subida de la CUP. Caída de PSC y Junts, mientras Ciudadanos recupera terreno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 October 2019.
24. "CatPanel (15O): subidón de la CUP. Vox entraría en el Parlament". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2019.
25. "Encuesta: ERC vence y el PSC de Iceta "sorpassa" a Ciudadanos". La Razón (in Spanish). 7 October 2019.
26. "Sondeo octubre 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 7 October 2019.
27. "CatPanel (11S): o coalición 'estelada' (ERC+JxCat+CUP) o 'Macedonia del Norte' (ERC+PSC)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 September 2019.
28. "Encuesta NC Report/Cataluña: ERC y PSC sumarían mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 9 September 2019.
29. "Más de 200.000 votantes huyen de Puigdemont". La Razón (in Spanish). 9 September 2019.
30. "CatPanel (20A): ERC ganaría las elecciones en Cataluña. El naranja de Ciudadanos desaparece del mapa". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 August 2019.
31. "ElectoPanel Cataluña (17J): ERC domina, caída de Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 July 2019.
32. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2019" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 26 July 2019.
33. "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: ERC sigue al alza tras el juicio y el PSC se dispara". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 14 July 2019.
34. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2019" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 April 2019.
35. "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: El independentismo mantiene la mayoría antes del juicio". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 10 February 2019.
36. "El soberanismo retrocede por la debacle del PDeCAT y pierde la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 24 December 2018.
37. "El cinturón rojo ya es naranja y el 20% del "voto PP" pasa a Vox". La Razón (in Spanish). 24 December 2018.
38. "Enquesta de l'ARA: ERC guanyaria a les urnes amb majoria independentista". Ara (in Catalan). 16 December 2018.
39. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2018" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 23 November 2018.
40. "El giro moderado aúpa a ERC y hunde a JxCat". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 30 October 2018.
41. "Cataluña: El independentismo perdería la mayoría absoluta en las urnas". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 September 2018.
42. "Radiografía del voto. Sondeo septiembre 2018". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 September 2018.
43. "ElectoPanel Cataluña: ERC se destaca y los independentistas afianzan su mayoría". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 September 2018.
44. "ERC ganaría las elecciones catalanas y el separatismo conservaría la mayoría absoluta". El Español (in Spanish). 10 September 2018.
45. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2018" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 20 July 2018.
46. "ERC superaría a Cs y a JxCat y ganaría las elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 July 2018.
47. "Vuelco electoral: el PSC ganaría las generales y Esquerra, las catalanas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 24 June 2018.
48. "ElectoPanel Cataluña: triple empate en cabeza con el PSC al alza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 June 2018.
49. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2018" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 11 May 2018.
50. "Los independentistas perderían la mayoría". La Razón (in Spanish). 23 April 2018.
51. "Sondeo abril 2018" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 23 April 2018.
52. "Cataluña: los independentistas pierden tres escaños y no logran la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 April 2018.
53. "Sondeo marzo 2018" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 2 April 2018.
54. "Enquesta sobre context polític a Catalunya. 2018" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 23 February 2018.
55. "Los constitucionalistas ganarían dos escaños un mes después del 21-D". La Razón (in Spanish). 21 January 2018.
56. "Radiografía del voto. Sondeo enero 2018" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 21 January 2018.

Other

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2. B. García, Luis (29 January 2020). "El posible calendario de una legislatura catalana con los días contados". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 January 2020.
3. "Rufián: "Las elecciones catalanas pueden ser más tarde de lo que parece"". El Nacional (in Spanish). Barcelona. EFE. 8 February 2020. Retrieved 9 February 2020.
4. Juliana, Enric (9 February 2020). "El calendario de las nacionalidades". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 February 2020.
5. Tomàs, Neus (6 February 2020). "El win-win de Sánchez". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 February 2020.
6. "Quim Torra, condenado a un año y medio de inhabilitación por negarse a retirar los lazos amarillos". El País (in Spanish). 19 December 2019. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
7. "El TSJC condena a Quim Torra a un año y medio de inhabilitación por no retirar la pancarta de Palau". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 19 December 2019. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
8. "Torrent retira el escaño a Torra y la legislatura queda vista para sentencia". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 January 2020. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
9. "El veto a Torra en el Parlament fractura el Govern". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 27 January 2020. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
10. "Torra empuja la legislatura catalana a un final acelerado tras perder el escaño". El País (in Spanish). 28 January 2020. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
11. "Torra anuncia elecciones tras los presupuestos y carga contra ERC". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 29 January 2020. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
12. "Ley Orgánica 6/2006, de 19 de julio, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña". Organic Law No. 6 of 19 July 2006. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
13. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
14. "Ley Orgánica 4/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña". Organic Law No. 4 of 18 December 1979. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
15. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
16. Izarra, Josean; Ferreras, Belén (10 February 2020). "Iñigo Urkullu adelanta las elecciones en el País Vasco al 5 de abril para que no coincidan con las catalanas". El Mundo (in Spanish). Vitoria. Retrieved 10 February 2020.
17. Lombao, David; Reinero, David (10 February 2020). "Feijóo adelanta las elecciones gallegas al 5 de abril para hacerlas coincidir con las vascas". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 February 2020.
18. Balado, Francisco (2 July 2020). "Puigdemont ningunea a Torra y prepara las elecciones catalanas para el 27S o para el 4 de octubre". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 15 July 2020.
19. Ellakuría, Iñaki (11 July 2020). "Carles Puigdemont acelera y quiere elecciones el 4 de octubre en Cataluña". El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 July 2020.
20. Tort, Àlex (15 July 2020). "El Govern endurece el confinamiento en Lleida y siete municipios más del Segrià a partir de esta medianoche". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Barcelona. Retrieved 15 July 2020.
21. Hernández Valls, Fernando (15 July 2020). "Puigdemont plantea llevar las catalanas a noviembre y enreda los PGE a Sánchez". La Información (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 July 2020.
22. "Parliament of Catalonia elections since 1980". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
23. "Parliamentary Groups". www.parlament.cat (in Spanish). Parliament of Catalonia. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
24. "Un manifiesto reclama hacer de JxCAT una organización, liderada por Puigdemont". El Nacional (in Spanish). 27 June 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
25. "El PDeCat se debate entre la disolución en JxCat y el cisma interno". El Independiente (in Spanish). 26 June 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
26. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
27. "Lorena Roldán gana las primarias de Cs en Catalunya y será candidata a la Generalitat". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Barcelona. EFE. 26 July 2019. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
28. Masreal, Fidel; García Sastre, Daniel (2 July 2020). "Puigdemont anuncia la creación de un partido al margen del PDECat". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Barcelona. Retrieved 9 July 2020.
29. Gisbert, Josep (10 July 2020). "Puigdemont arrebata la marca JxCat a la dirección del PDECat". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 July 2020.
30. "Sànchez descarta una coalición de Junts y el PDECat porque "comporta cuotas"". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 12 July 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
31. Lasalas, Marta (14 July 2020). "Bonvehí asegura que el PDeCAT concurrirá a las elecciones "de una forma u otra"". El Nacional (in Spanish). Barcelona. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
32. Baquero, Camilo Sixto (14 July 2020). "Bonvehí dice que el PDeCAT se presentará en solitario a las elecciones si no hay acuerdo con Junts". El País (in Spanish). Barcelona. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
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34. "Junqueras gana las elecciones a la Ejecutiva de ERC con el 88,34% de los votos". El Independiente (in Spanish). 15 September 2019. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
35. Noguer, Miquel; Baquero, Camilo Sixto (30 January 2020). "Torra promete un adelanto electoral sin fecha para ganar tiempo". El País (in Spanish). Barcelona. Retrieved 5 February 2020.
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46. Reyero, Itziar (31 January 2020). "Arrimadas propone ir con el PP a las elecciones de Cataluña, País Vasco y Galicia". ABC (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 January 2020.
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