Next Andalusian regional election

The next Andalusian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 1 January 2023, to elect the 12th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Next Andalusian regional election

No later than 1 January 2023
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Susana Díaz Juan Manuel Moreno Juan Marín Party PSOE–A PP Cs Leader since 7 September 2013 1 March 2014 6 February 2015 Leader's seat Seville Málaga Seville Last election 33 seats, 27.9% 26 seats, 20.7% 21 seats, 18.3% Current seats 33 26 21 Seats needed 22 29 34   Leader Teresa Rodríguez Alejandro Hernández Valdés Party AA Vox Leader since 9 February 2015 7 February 2019 Leader's seat Málaga Seville Last election 17 seats, 16.2% 12 seats, 11.0% Current seats 17 10 Seats needed 38 45
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
Incumbent President Juan Manuel Moreno PP

The 2018 election resulted in the first majority for right-of-centre parties in Andalusia in 36 years, paving the way for an alternative government to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) despite this party remaining the most voted political force in the region.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution of 1978 and the regional Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Andalusians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province does not exceed two times that of any other).[1][3]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 2 December 2018, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 2 December 2022. The election decree must be published in the BOJA no later than 8 November 2022, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 1 January 2023.[1][3][5]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1][6]

Parliamentary status

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.[7]

Current parliamentary composition[8]

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE–A	33	33
	Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group		PP	26	26
	Citizens Parliamentary Group		Cs	21	21
	Forward Andalusia Parliamentary Group		Podemos	12	17
			IULV–CA	5
	Vox Parliamentary Group in Andalusia		Vox	10	10
	Non-Inscrits		FE–JONS	1[lower-alpha 1]	2
			INDEP	1[lower-alpha 2]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PSOE–A	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)		Susana Díaz	Social democracy	27.94%	33	N
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Juan Manuel Moreno	Conservatism Christian democracy	20.75%	26	Y
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Juan Marín	Liberalism	18.28%	21	Y
	AA	List We Can (Podemos) United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) Andalusian Left (IzA) Andalusian Spring (Primavera Andaluza)		Teresa Rodríguez	Andalusian nationalism Left-wing populism Direct democracy	16.19%	17	N
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Alejandro Hernández Valdés	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	10.96%	12	N

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							AxSí		Lead
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 1][p 2]	26 Jun–4 Jul 2020	1,000	?	31.1 40	26.0 31	11.2 10	16.6 17	10.9 11	–	–	[lower-alpha 3]	5.1
Invest Group/CEA[p 3]	18 Jun–1 Jul 2020	3,600	58.0	30.4 35/37	30.8 36/37	11.2 12/13	4.0 2/3	10.1 11/12	–	–	9.4 9/11	0.4
SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[12][13]	8–15 May 2020	1,000	?	25.1 28/31	26.8 28/32	13.1 13/16	15.8 16/19	14.7 15/18	–	–	[lower-alpha 3]	1.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4][p 5]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	28.0 36	33.1 44	10.3 11	4.7 2	9.7 9	–	–	8.4 7	5.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 6]	23–27 Feb 2020	1,100	?	25.5 32	24.7 31	8.1 8	4.0 0	19.7 23	–	0.6 0	14.4 15	0.8
GAD3/ABC[p 7][14]	17–21 Feb 2020	802	?	28.6 33/36	26.5 32/33	9.3 8/10	15.8 16/17	14.7 16/17	–	–	[lower-alpha 3]	2.1
SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 8][p 9]	5–18 Feb 2020	1,310	?	25.7 29/31	26.4 29/32	9.6 9/13	17.1 17/21	15.4 16/19	–	–	[lower-alpha 3]	0.7
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 10][p 11]	20–30 Jan 2020	2,600	61.1	31.6 40	25.1 30	12.2 11	17.0 17	10.7 11	–	–	[lower-alpha 3]	6.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 12]	9 Jan 2020	?	?	24.8 29	24.0 29	7.3 6	17.9 18	21.0 27	–	0.6 0	[lower-alpha 3]	0.8
Nexo/CEA[p 13]	25 Nov–12 Dec 2019	2,627	57.0	27.8	24.5	10.5	15.6	16.2	1.4	–	[lower-alpha 3]	3.3
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	N/A	65.9	33.4 42	20.5 24	8.1 7	[lower-alpha 4]	20.4 23	1.1 0	0.3 0	13.1 13	12.9
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 14]	15–25 Jul 2019	2,600	60.8	33.6 42	24.6 30	14.0 13	16.1 17	8.2 7	–	–	[lower-alpha 3]	9.0
Asé–Psiké/CEA[p 15]	10–26 Jun 2019	2,567	60.2	30.5	24.8	17.8	14.0	8.1	1.2	–	[lower-alpha 3]	5.7
2019 EP election	26 May 2019	N/A	58.4	40.5 54	22.3 27	13.0 12	[lower-alpha 4]	7.6 8	1.4 0	0.5 0	11.6 12	18.2
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	N/A	70.8	34.2 42	17.2 19	17.7 20	[lower-alpha 4]	13.4 13	1.4 0	0.2 0	14.3 15	16.5
2018 regional election	2 Dec 2018	N/A	56.6	27.9 33	20.7 26	18.3 21	16.2 17	11.0 12	1.9 0	0.6 0	[lower-alpha 3]	7.2

Notes

1. Luz Belinda Rodríguez, former Vox legislator.[9][10]
2. Francisco Serrano Castro, former Vox legislator.[11]
3. Within Adelante Andalucía.
4. Within Unidas Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PSOE andaluz recupera vigor y sumaría con la izquierda ante un PP reforzado". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 20 July 2020.
2. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 20/07/2020: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 16,6% (17), PSOE 31,1% (40), Cs 11,2% (10), PP 26,0% (31), VOX 10,9% (11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 July 2020.
3. "Barómetro Andaluz. Junio 2020". CEA (in Spanish). 20 July 2020.
4. "EP (17My): Andalucía – el PP de Juanma Moreno se coloca primero". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
5. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
6. "AndPanel (28F): la derecha seguiría gobernando en Andalucía con el PP rozando la primera fuerza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 January 2020.
7. "PP, Vox y Ciudadanos consolidan la ventaja como mayoría de Gobierno en Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2020.
8. "PP y Cs seguirían al frente de la Junta con el apoyo de Vox". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 25 February 2020.
9. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta SW Demoscopia 25/02/2020: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 17,1% (17/21), PSOE 25,7% (29/31), Cs 9,6% (9/13), PP 26,4% (29/32), VOX 15,4% (16/19)". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 February 2020.
10. "El PSOE-A ganaría las autonómicas con 40 escaños y PP-A, Cs y Vox no sumarían mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo socialista". La Razón (in Spanish). 21 February 2020.
11. "PSOE y Adelante Andalucía arrebatarían la mayoría absoluta a las tres derechas, según el sondeo encargado por los socialistas". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 21 February 2020.
12. "AndalûhPanel (10e): PP, PSOE y Vox se disputan la victoria casi empatados. La derecha se consolida". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 January 2020.
13. "Barómetro Andaluz. Diciembre 2019". CEA (in Spanish). 14 January 2020.
14. "Un sondeo encargado por el PSOE revela que el 51,6% de andaluces censura el pacto de las tres derechas para gobernar su región". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 1 August 2019.
15. "Barómetro Andaluz. Junio 2019". CEA (in Spanish). 27 July 2019.

Other

1. "Ley Orgánica 2/2007, de 19 de marzo, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía". Organic Law No. 2 of 19 March 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. "Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
6. "Ley 6/2006, de 24 de octubre, del Gobierno de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía". Law No. 6 of 24 October 2006. Boltín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
7. "Parliament of Andalusia elections since 1982". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
8. "Parliamentary Groups". www.parlamentodeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Andalusia. Retrieved 20 July 2020.
9. Moreno, Silvia (21 January 2020). "Otra crisis en Vox: una diputada abandona el grupo parlamentario y denuncia acoso ante la Policía". El Mundo (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
10. Cela, Daniel (15 March 2020). "La diputada almeriense que dejó Vox se une a Falange y llevará sus iniciativas al Parlamento de Andalucía". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 July 2020.
11. Saiz, Eva; Lucio, Lourdes (1 July 2020). "Francisco Serrano, líder de Vox en Andalucía, deja el partido tras la querella de la Fiscalía por fraude en subvenciones". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
12. "PP aguanta el pulso a PSOE en Andalucía con el tripartito consolidado". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 21 May 2020.
13. "ANDALUCÍA. Encuesta SW Demoscopia 21/05/2020: ADELANTE ANDALUCÍA 15,8% (16/19), PSOE 25,1% (28/31), Cs 13,2% (13/16), PP 26,8% (28/32), VOX 14,7% (15/18)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 May 2020.
14. "Sondeo de GAD3 para ABC Sevilla por el Día de Andalucía (28 feb)". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 February 2020.