2003 Murcian regional election

The 2003 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 25 May 2003, to elect the 6th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2003 Murcian regional election

25 May 2003
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	934,896 2.6%
Turnout	654,253 (70.0%) 2.3 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Ramón Luis Valcárcel Ramón Ortiz Cayetano Jaime Moltó Party PP PSOE IURM Leader since 5 October 1991 1995 2001 Leader's seat Three Three Three Last election 26 seats, 52.8% 18 seats, 35.9% 1 seat, 7.0% Seats won 28 16 1 Seat change 2 2 0 Popular vote 367,710 221,392 36,754 Percentage 56.7% 34.1% 5.7% Swing 3.9 pp 1.8 pp 1.3 pp
Constituency results map for the Regional Assembly of Murcia
President before election Ramón Luis Valcárcel PP Elected President Ramón Luis Valcárcel PP

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Region.[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

• I–Lorca (comprising the municipalities of Lorca, Aguilas, Puerto Lumbreras, Totana, Alhama de Murcia, Librilla, Aledo and Mazarrón).
• II–Cartagena (comprising the municipalities of Cartagena, La Unión, Fuente Alamo de Murcia, Torre-Pacheco, San Javier, San Pedro del Pinatar and Los Alcázares).
• III–Murcia (comprising the municipalities of Murcia, Alcantarilla, Beniel, Molina de Segura, Alguazas, Las Torres de Cotillas, Lorquí, Ceutí, Cieza, Abarán, Blanca, Archena, Ricote, Ulea, Villanueva del Río Segura, Ojós, Fortuna, Abanilla and Santomera).
• IV–Northwest (comprising the municipalities of Caravaca, Cehegín, Calasparra, Moratalla, Bullas, Pliego, Mula, Albudeite and Campos del Río).
• V–Plateau (comprising the municipalities of Yecla and Jumilla).

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of one seat, with the remaining 40 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[2]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[2][3][4]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 13 June 1999, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 25 May 2003.[1][2][3][4]

The President of the Region had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				Lead
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	N/A	70.0	56.7 28	34.1 16	5.7 1	22.6
Sigma Dos/Antena 3[p 1]	25 May 2003	?	?	? 24/25	? 18/19	? 2	?
Ipsos–Eco/RTVE[p 2]	25 May 2003	?	?	? 26/28	? 16/18	? 1/2	?
CIS[p 3][p 4]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	1,417	71.8	49.7 24	38.4 19	7.7 2	11.3
CIS[p 5][p 6][p 7]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	487	72.9	51.0	35.0	5.6	16.0
Celeste-Tel[p 8]	10–20 Jul 2000	977	?	51.9 25	33.9 18	7.9 2	18.0
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000	N/A	73.5	58.1	32.4	6.2	25.7
1999 regional election	13 Jun 1999	N/A	67.7	52.8 26	35.9 18	7.0 1	16.9

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 May 2003 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	367,710	56.66	+3.82	28	+2
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	221,392	34.11	–1.80	16	–2
	United Left of the Region of Murcia (IURM)	36,754	5.66	–1.34	1	±0
	The Greens (LV)	10,208	1.57	+0.64	0	±0
	Citizens' Convergence of the South-East (CCSE)	1,194	0.18	+0.04	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	1,063	0.16	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	392	0.06	New	0	±0
	National Democracy–Workers' National Party (DN–PNT)^1	239	0.04	+0.01	0	±0
	Democratic and Social Centre (CDS)	136	0.02	–0.28	0	±0
Blank ballots		9,941	1.53	+0.09
Total		649,029			45	±0
Valid votes		649,029	99.20	–0.10
Invalid votes		5,224	0.80	+0.10
Votes cast / turnout		654,253	69.98	+2.32
Abstentions		280,643	30.02	–2.32
Registered voters		934,896
Sources[5][6][7]

Popular vote PP   56.66% PSOE   34.11% IURM   5.66% LV   1.57% Others   0.47% Blank ballots   1.53%

Seats PP   62.22% PSOE   35.56% IURM   2.22%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE		IURM
	%	S	%	S	%	S
One	49.1	4	40.7	3	7.7	−
Two	58.2	7	32.0	3	5.3	−
Three	59.8	13	31.7	7	4.8	1
Four	50.6	2	42.1	2	5.6	−
Five	50.0	2	35.0	1	10.6	−
Total	56.7	28	34.1	16	5.7	1
Sources[5][6][7]

Aftermath

Investiture Ramón Luis Valcárcel (PP)
Ballot →		26 June 2003
Required majority →		23 out of 45 Y
	Yes • PP (28)	28 / 45
	No • IURM (1)	1 / 45
	Abstentions • PSOE (16)	16 / 45
	Absentees	0 / 45
Sources[7]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El sondeo de Sigma Dos determina una lucha codo a codo entre populares y socialistas en Madrid". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 May 2003. Archived from the original on 25 May 2019. Retrieved 25 May 2019.
2. "Sondeo a pie de urna de Ipsos Eco Consulting para TVE". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 May 2003. Archived from the original on 7 December 2017. Retrieved 25 May 2019.
3. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2003. CA de la Región de Murcia (Estudio nº 2494. Marzo-Abril 2003)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 17 May 2003.
4. "La guerra pasa factura electoral al PP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 18 May 2003.
5. "Instituciones y autonomías, II. CA de la Región de Murcia (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
6. "El PP, partido más votado en diez Comunidades Autónomas" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
7. "El PP ganaría las autonómicas en diez Comunidades y el PSOE en cuatro, según el CIS". ABC (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
8. "Encuesta a nivel autonómico. Región de Murcia". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 20 July 2000.

Other

1. "Statute of Autonomy for the Region of Murcia of 1982". Organic Law No. 4 of 9 June 1982. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
2. "Region of Murcia Electoral Law of 1987". Law No. 2 of 24 February 1987. Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
3. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
4. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
5. "2004 Statistical Yearbook of the Region of Murcia. Volume I" (PDF). econet.carm.es (in Spanish). Regional Statistics Center of Murcia. Retrieved 7 December 2019.
6. Sierra Rodríguez, Javier (2015). El Sistema Electoral de la Región de Murcia: Balance y Perspectivas (PDF) (in Spanish). Murcia: Universidad de Murcia. Facultad de Derecho. p. 324. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
7. "Regional Assembly of Murcia elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 30 September 2017.