Great Recession in Africa

As a direct result of the late 2000s recession, some economies in Africa have been primarily affected by reduced global demand and lower prices of commodities such as oil, platinum, nickel, gold, and copper. South Africa was the first African country to fall in recession. Other countries like Morocco and Egypt, which benefited from their previous high economic growth experienced a great decline due to the global economic crisis without falling in recession.

Great Recession

South Africa

Moody's Investors Service warned on July 7, 2008 that South Africa could slip into a recession by the turn of the year. Moody's cited electricity shortages, high interest rates, soaring inflation, a slumping housing and vehicle market and lower business and consumer confidence indicators. Growth in South Africa's real gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2008 slowed to 0.39%. CPIX inflation, the monetary-policy inflation target measure, rose 10.9% on a year-on-year basis in May, its highest level since November 2002.[1] South Africa's National Treasury criticized the statement by Moody's saying, "It's not possible that we'll end up in recession." He added that the government may revise lower its 4 percent growth forecast for the year following growth of 5.1% in 2007. Car sales in South Africa dropped an annual 22 percent in June due to higher interest rates.[2]

Timeline of the Great Recession across all continents

The table below displays all national recessions appearing in 2006-2013 (for the 71 countries with available data), according to the common recession definition, saying that a recession occurred whenever seasonally adjusted real GDP contracts quarter on quarter, through minimum two consecutive quarters. Only 11 out of the 71 listed countries with quarterly GDP data (Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, India, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Uruguay, Colombia and Bolivia) escaped a recession in this time period.

The few recessions appearing early in 2006-07 are commonly never associated to be part of the Great Recession, which is illustrated by the fact that only two countries (Iceland and Jamaica) were in recession in Q4-2007.

One year before the maximum, in Q1-2008, only six countries were in recession (Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal and New Zealand). The number of countries in recession was 25 in Q2‑2008, 39 in Q3‑2008 and 53 in Q4‑2008. At the steepest part of the Great Recession in Q1‑2009, a total of 59 out of 71 countries were simultaneously in recession. The number of countries in recession was 37 in Q2‑2009, 13 in Q3‑2009 and 11 in Q4‑2009. One year after the maximum, in Q1‑2010, only seven countries were in recession (Greece, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Jamaica, Venezuela and Belize).

The recession data for the overall G20-zone (representing 85% of all GWP), depict that the Great Recession existed as a global recession throughout Q3‑2008 until Q1‑2009.

Subsequent follow-up recessions in 2010‑2013 were confined to Belize, El Salvador, Paraguay, Jamaica, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and 24 out of 50 European countries (including Greece). As of October 2014, only five out of the 71 countries with available quarterly data (Cyprus, Italy, Croatia, Belize and El Salvador), were still in ongoing recessions.[3][4] The many follow-up recessions hitting the European countries, are commonly referred to as being direct repercussions of the European sovereign‑debt crisis.

Country[lower-alpha 1] Recession period(s) during 2006‑2013[3][4]
(measured by quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted real GDP,
as per the latest revised Q3-2013 data from 10 January 2014)[lower-alpha 2]
Albania 2007-Q1Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)[5]
Q3-2009 until Q4-2009 (6 months)[5]
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[5]
Argentina 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months)
Q3-2013 until Q3-2014 (12 months)
Q3-2015 until Q3-2016 (15 months)
Australia None
Austria 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)
Belgium 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)
Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months)
Belize 2006-Q1Q1-2006 until Q2-2006 (6 months)[6]
Q1-2007 until Q3-2007 (9 months)[6]
Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[6]
Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)[6]
Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)[6]
Q2-2013 until Ongoing (48 months)[6]
Bolivia None[7][lower-alpha 3]
Brazil 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Q1-2014 until Q4-2016 (36 months)
Bulgaria 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months)
Canada 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Chile 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
China None
Colombia None[8][9]
Costa Rica 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[10]
Croatia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2010 (24 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2012 (18 months)
Q2-2013 until Q2 2014 (15 months)
Cyprus 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q4-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2014 (42 months)
Czech Republic 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months)
Denmark 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
Ecuador 2006-Q4Q4-2006 until Q1-2007 (6 months)[11]
Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[12][13]
El Salvador 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)[14][lower-alpha 4]
Estonia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q3-2009 (15 months)
Q1-2013 until Q2-2013 (6 months)
EU (28 member states) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
Eurozone (17 member states) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months)
Finland 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months)
Q2-2012 until Q1-2015 (36 months)
France 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
G20 (43 member states, PPP-weighted GDP)[lower-alpha 5] 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)
Germany 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Greece 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2014 (63 months)
Q1-2015 until Q1-2017 (27 months)
Hong Kong 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[17]
Hungary 2007-Q1Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)
Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)
Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)
Q1-2012 until Q4-2012 (12 months)
Iceland 2007-Q4Q4-2007 until Q2-2008 (9 months)
Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Q3-2009 until Q2-2010 (12 months)
India None
Indonesia None
Ireland 2007-Q2Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months)
Q1-2008 until Q4-2009 (24 months)
Q3-2011 until Q2-2013 (24 months)
Israel 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Italy 2007-Q3Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months)
Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q3-2011 until Q3-2013 (27 months)
Q1-2014 until Q4-2014 (12 months)
Jamaica 2007-Q3Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months)[18]
Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[18]
Q4-2009 until Q2-2010 (9 months)[18]
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[18]
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)[18]
Japan 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Q4-2010 until Q2-2011 (9 months)
Q2-2012 until Q3-2012 (6 months)
Kazakhstan 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[19][lower-alpha 6]
Latvia 2008-Q2Q1-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)
Q1-2010 until Q2-2010 (12 months)
Lithuania 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Luxembourg 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Macedonia 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[20]
Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months)[20]
(not qoq-data, but quarters compared with same quarter of last year)[lower-alpha 2]
Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months)
Malaysia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[21][22]
Malta 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Mexico 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Moldova None[23][lower-alpha 7]
Netherlands 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)
Q3-2012 until Q2-2013 (12 months)
New Zealand 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months)
Q3-2010 until Q4-2010 (6 months)
Norway 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months)
Q2-2010 until Q3-2010 (6 months)
Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)
OECD (34 member states, PPP-weighted GDP) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Paraguay 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[24]
Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)[24]
Peru 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)[25]
Philippines 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[26][27]
Poland None
Portugal 2007-Q2Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months)
Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2010 until Q1-2013 (30 months)
Romania 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)
Russia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Q4-2014 until Q4-2016 (27 months)
Serbia 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)[28]
Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)[28]
Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[28]
Singapore 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[29][30][31][32][33]
Slovakia None
Slovenia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2013 (24 months)[34][35]
South Africa 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
South Korea None
Spain 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q4-2009 (21 months)
Q2-2011 until Q2-2013 (27 months)
Sweden 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months)
Switzerland 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Taiwan 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[36]
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)[36]
Thailand 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[37]
Turkey 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Ukraine 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[38]
Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[38][39][40]
United Kingdom 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)[41]
United States 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Uruguay None[42]
Venezuela 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q1-2010 (15 months)[43]
  1. 105 out of the 206 sovereign countries in the World, did not publish any quarterly GDP data for the 2006‑2013 period. The following 21 countries were also excluded from the table, due to only publishing unadjusted quarterly real GDP figures with no seasonal adjustment: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brunei, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Georgia, Guatemala, Iran, Jordan, Macao, Montenegro, Morocco, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Palestine, Qatar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Vietnam.
  2. Only seasonally adjusted qoq-data can be used to accurately determine recession periods. When quarterly change is calculated by comparing quarters with the same quarter of last year, this results only in an aggregated -often delayed- indication, because of being a product of all quarterly changes taking place since the same quarter last year. Currently there is no seasonal adjusted qoq-data available for Greece and Macedonia, which is why the table display the recession intervals for these two countries only based upon the alternative indicative data format.
  3. Bolivia had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q1-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[7]
  4. According to the methodology note for the quarterly GDP of El Salvador, this data series include seasonally adjustments.[15]
  5. The G20-zone represents 85% of all GWP, and comprise 19 member states (incl. UK, France, Germany and Italy) along with the EU Commission as the 20th member, who represents the remaining 24 EU member states in the forum.[16]
  6. Kazakhstan had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2009, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[19]
  7. Moldova had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2011-13.[23]
gollark: And yet golang bad. Mysterious.
gollark: How does that `40` work?
gollark: So you... only have one value but can somehow access it in different ways?
gollark: I don't take drugs, except for apple juice.
gollark: That is correct. Probably.

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