Climate change in California

Climate change and the effects of global warming with regard to the climate in California primarily revolve around issues such as drought and the subsequent risk of wildfire and related occurrences.[3] A 2011 study projected that the frequency and magnitude of both maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly as a result of global warming.[4] The same study further projected that the frequency and magnitude of both maximum and minimum temperatures would likely increase as a result of global warming.[4]

Animated map of the progression of the drought in California in 2014, during which the drought covered 100% of California. As of December 2014, 75% of California was under Extreme (Red) or Exceptional (Maroon) Drought. The California drought continued after 2014.[1][2]

Paleoclimatological Evidence

Paleoclimatological studies indicate that the last 150 years of California's history have been unusually wet compared to the previous 2000 years. Tree stumps found at the bottom of lakes and rivers in California indicate that many water features dried up during historical dry periods, allowing trees to grow there while the water was absent. These dry periods were associated with warm periods in Earth's history. During the Medieval Warm Period, there were at least two century-long megadroughts with only 60-70% of modern precipitation levels. Paleoclimatologists believe that higher temperatures due to global warming may cause California to enter another dry period, with significantly lower precipitation and snowpack levels than observed over the last 150 years.[5]

Extreme weather impacts

A 2011 study projected that the frequency and magnitude of both maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly as a result of global warming.[4]

Wildfires
Main articles: List of California wildfires, 2017, 2018, and 2019

In 2017, a study projected that the single largest threat to Los Angeles County hospitals related to climate change is the direct impact of the expected increase in wildfires. In Los Angeles County, 34% of hospitals are located within one mile of fire hazard severity zones. Additionally, one of these hospitals was also deemed in danger of coastal flooding due to the effects of climate change as concluded by the study. This latter issue was also included and focused on, as the study likewise concluded that this would become a greater hazard as sea level rise due to increase annual temperatures.[6]

As a consequence of further global warming, it is projected that there will be an increase in risk due to climate-driven wildfires in the coming decades. Because of warming, frequent droughts, and the legacy of past land management and expansion of residential areas, both people and the ecology are more vulnerable to wildfires. Wildfire activity is closely tied to temperature and drought over time. Globally, the length of the fire season increased by nearly 19% from 1979 to 2013, with significantly longer seasons in the western states. Since 1985, more than 50% of the wildfire area burned in the western United States can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, due to human fire suppression methods, there is a build of fuels in some ecosystems, making them more vulnerable to wildfires. There is greater risk of fires occurring in denser, dryer forests, where historically these fires have occurred in low-density areas. Lastly, with increases in human population, communities have expanded into areas that are at higher risk to wildfire threat, making these same populations more vulnerable to structural damage and death due to wildfires. Since 1990, the average annual number of homes lost to wildfires has increased by 300%. Almost 900,000 of western US residences were in high risk wildfire areas as of 2017 with nearly 35% of wildfires in California starting within this high risk areas.[7]

In 2019, after "red flag" warning about the possibility of wildfires was declared in some areas of California, the electricity company "Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E)" begun to shut down power, for preventing inflammation of trees that touch the electricity lines. Millions can be impacted. The climatic conditions that cause this warning became more frequent because of climate change.[8] If the temperatures keep rising, such power outages could become common.[9]

Drought

According to the NOAA Drought Task Force report of 2014, the drought is not part of a long-term change in precipitation and was a symptom of the natural variability, although the record-high temperature that accompanied the recent drought may have been amplified due to human-induced global warming.[10] This was confirmed by a 2015 scientific study which estimated that global warming "accounted for 8–27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012–2014... Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts."[11]

In February 2014, the Californian drought effects caused the California Department of Water Resources to develop plans for a temporary reduction of water allocations to farmland by up to 50% at the time. During that period California's 38 million residents experienced 13 consecutive months of drought. This is particularly an issue for the state's 44.7 billion dollar agricultural industry, which produces nearly half of all American-grown fruits, nuts, and vegetables.[12] According to NASA, tests published in January 2014 have shown that the twelve months prior to January 2014 were the driest on record, since record-keeping began in 1885.[13] Lack of water due to low snowpack prompted Californian governor Jerry Brown to order a series of stringent mandatory water restrictions on April 1, 2015.[14]

Percent Area in U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Forest management

Drought-surviving sugar pines around Lake Tahoe have found among 129 million trees in California killed between 2012 and 2016 by drought and bark beetles. Thousands of seedlings descended from these trees are being planted south-facing slopes on the lake basin's north side with the hope that they carry genes that make them more resilient to drought, waning snowpack and other effects of global warming in the forests of Sierra Nevada.[15]

Sea Level rise
Population density and low elevation coastal zones in Western United States
Population density and low elevation coastal zones in San Francisco Bay (2010)

A 2017 study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research projected that a sea level rise of between 1 and 2 m will swallow between one-third and two-thirds of Southern California beaches.[16]

Health impacts

Expected increases in extreme weather could lead to increased risk of illnesses and death.[17]

Heat waves

From May to September 1999 – 2003, a study was conducted in nine Californian counties that found that for every 10 °F (5.6 °C) increase in temperature, there is a 2.6 percent increase in cardiovascular deaths.[18]

2006 heat wave

A study of the 2006 Californian heat wave showed an increase of 16,166 emergency room visits, and 1,182 hospitalizations. There was also a dramatic increase in heat related illnesses; a six-fold increase in heat-related emergency room visits, and 10-fold increase in hospitalizations.[19]

A study of seven counties impacted by the 2006 heat wave found a 9 percent increase in daily mortality per 10 degrees Fahrenheit change in apparent temperature for all counties combined. This estimate is 3 times greater than the effect estimated for the rest of the warm season. The estimates indicate that actual mortality during the 2006 heat wave was two or three times greater than the initial coroner estimate of 147 deaths.[20]

Air pollution

Research suggests that the majority of air pollution related health effects are caused by ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM). Many other pollutants that are associated with climate change, such as nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide, also have health consequences.[21]

Five of the ten most ozone-polluted metropolitan areas in the United States (Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Visalia, Fresno, and Sacramento) are in California.[22][23] Californians suffer from a variety of health consequences due to air pollution – including 18,000 premature deaths attributed to various causes such as respiratory diseases as well as a number of other illnesses.[24]

Climate change may lead to exacerbated air pollution problems. Higher temperatures catalyze chemical interactions between nitrogen oxide, volatile organic gases and sunlight that lead to increases in ambient ozone concentrations in urban areas. A study found that for each 1 degree Celsius (1 °C) rise in temperature in the United States, there are an estimated 20–30 excess cancer cases, as well as approximately 1000 (CI: 350–1800) excess air-pollution-associated deaths.[25] About 40 percent of the additional deaths may be due to ozone and the rest to particulate matter annually. Three hundred of these annual deaths are thought to occur in California.[26]

Economic impacts

Gross domestic product

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that under a business-as-usual scenario, between the years 2025 and 2100, the cost of providing water to the western states in the United States will increase from $200 billion to $950 billion per year, an estimated 0.93–1 percent of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP). Four climate change impacts—hurricane damage, energy costs, real estate losses, and water costs—alone are projected to cost 1.8 percent of the GDP of the United States, or, just under $1.9 trillion in 2008 U.S. dollars by the year 2100.[27]

Job opportunities

A study conducted in 2009 showed that increases in frequency and intensity of extreme weather due to climate change will lead to a decreased productivity of agriculture, revenue losses, and the potential for lay offs.[28] Changing weather and precipitation patterns could require expensive adaptation measures, such as relocating crop cultivation, changing the composition or type of crops, and increasing inputs such as pesticides to adapt to changes in ecological composition, that lead to economic degradation and job loss.[22] Climate change has adverse effects on agricultural productivity in California that cause laborers to be increasingly affected by job loss. For example, the two highest-value agricultural products in California's $30 billion agriculture sector are dairy products (milk and cream, valued at $3.8 billion annually) and grapes ($3.2 billion annually).[29] It is also expected to adversely affect the ripening of wine grapes, substantially reducing their market value.[30]

Legislation
Main article: Climate change policy of California

California has taken a number of legislative steps and extensive measures and initiatives targeted at the broader issue of climate effects seeking to prevent and minimize the risks of possible effects of climate change[31][32] by a wide variety of incentives, measures and comprehensive plans for clean cars, renewable energy, and pollution controls on industry with overall high environmental standards.[33][34][35] California is internationally known for its leading role in the realm of ecoconscious legislature not just on a national level but also globally.[36][31][37]

gollark: Great? That's probably the definition people practically use anyway.
gollark: That seems ridiculously broad. If I go around lying to people (deception) am I an illusion now?
gollark: Except apioforms.
gollark: I mean, depends what you mean by "illusion".
gollark: I'd say simulations are real-ish, the other ones not so much.

See also

References
  1. "Drought maps show just how thirsty California has become". L.A. Times. May 5, 2016. Archived from the original on May 13, 2016.
  2. "U.S. Drought Monitor". droughtmonitor.unl.edu. Retrieved September 4, 2018.
  3. Gallagher, Nora (March 3, 2018). "Southern Californians know: climate change is real, it is deadly and it is here". the Guardian. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
  4. Mastrandrea, M. D.; Tebaldi, C.; Snyder, C. W.; Schneider, S. H. (2011). "Current and future impacts of extreme events in California". Climatic Change. 109: 43–70. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0311-6.
  5. "Climate change and paleoclimatology: Putting California's drought in a long-term perspective". Maven's Notebook. November 3, 2014. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  6. Adelaine, Sabrina A.; Sato, Mizuki; Jin, Yufang; Godwin, Hilary (October 2017). "An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) Hospitals, Wildfires Highest Priority". Prehospital and Disaster Medicine. 32 (5): 556–562. doi:10.1017/S1049023X17006586. ISSN 1945-1938. PMID 28606202.
  7. Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K.; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Dennison, Philip E.; Harvey, Brian J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A. (May 2, 2017). "Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 114 (18): 4582–4590. doi:10.1073/pnas.1617464114. PMC 5422781. PMID 28416662.
  8. Rosane, Olivia (October 9, 2019). "Power Outage Intended to Prevent Wildfires Will Affect Millions of Californians Who Use PG&E". Ecowatch. Retrieved October 10, 2019.
  9. Blaauw, Maddie (October 13, 2019). "Climate Change Dictates That The PG&E Power Outage Likely Won't Be The Last". The Rising. Retrieved October 15, 2019.
  11. Williams, A. Park; et al. (2015). "Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014". Geophysical Research Letters. 42 (16): 6819–6828. Bibcode:2015GeoRL..42.6819W. doi:10.1002/2015GL064924.
  12. "California drought: no relief in sight, Drinking water and farming are at risk from state's ongoing drought, but forecasts offer little hope". The Guardian. UK. February 3, 2014. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  13. Drought Stressing California's Plantscape, Earth Observatory, NASA, February 2014
  14. "California governor orders mandatory water restrictions amid drought". FOX News, Associated Press. April 1, 2015. Retrieved April 1, 2015.
  15. BARBOZA, TONY (November 18, 2019). "In the Sierra, scientists bet on 'survivor' trees to withstand drought and climate change". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved November 26, 2019.
  16. Lucas, Scott (January 29, 2019). "Los Angeles Is the Face of Climate Change". Medium. Retrieved September 2, 2019.
  17. "IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". Ipcc.ch. Retrieved September 4, 2018.
  18. Basu, R., and B. D. Ostro. 2008. “A Multicounty Analysis Identifying the Populations Vulnerable to Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperature in California.” Am J Epidemiol 168(6): 632–37
  19. Knowlton, K., M. Rotkin-Ellman, G. King, H. G. Margolis, D. Smith, G. Solomon, R. Trent, and P. English. 2009. "The 2006 California Heat Wave: Impacts on Hospitalizations and Emergency Department Visits". Environ Health Perspect 117(1): 61–67
  20. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 16, 2009. Retrieved 2009-07-25.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  21. Public health-related impacts of climate change in California. California Energy Commission "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 16, 2009. Retrieved 2009-07-25.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  22. "Climate Change in California: Health, Economic and Equity Impacts" (PDF). Oakland, California: Redefining Progress. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
  23. ALA (American Lung Association). 2008. State of the Air: 2008. American Lung Association: New York.
  24. "Methodology for Estimating Premature Deaths Associated with Long-term Exposure to Fine Airborne Particulate Matter in California" (PDF). CARB (California Air Resources Board). Retrieved December 7, 2018.
  25. "On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality" (PDF). Web.stanford.edu. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
  26. "Boosting the Benefits: Improving air quality and health by reducing global warming pollution in California" (PDF). Nrdc.org. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
  27. "The Cost of Climate Change: What We'll Pay if Global Warming Continues Unchecked" (PDF). New York, New York: NRDC. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
  28. "Effect of Climate Change on Field Crop Production in the Central Valley of California" (PDF). Energy.ca.gov. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
  29. California agriculture statistical review. Sacramento, California. California Agriculture Statistics Service
  30. Verville, Julia H.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Lunch, Claire K.; Lenihan, James; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Hanemann, R. Michael; Drapek, Ray; Dale, Larry; Cleland, Elsa E.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Schneider, Stephen H.; Moser, Susanne C.; Miller, Norman L.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Field, Christopher B.; Cayan, Daniel; Hayhoe, Katharine (August 24, 2004). "Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 101 (34): 12422–12427. doi:10.1073/pnas.0404500101. PMC 514653. PMID 15314227.
  31. "California leads subnational efforts to curb climate change". The Economist. September 15, 2018.
  32. Biello, David. "California Dreaming? The Golden State Takes the Lead in U.S. Efforts to Combat Climate Change". Scientific American.
  33. Counts, Laura (May 1, 2018). "In new book, Prof. Vogel explores why California has a green streak". Haas News - Berkeley Haas.
  34. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on November 15, 2018. Retrieved November 14, 2018.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  35. Barringer, Felicity (October 13, 2012). "In California, a Grand Experiment to Rein in Climate Change". The New York Times.
  36. "California leads on sustainability innovation while Trump digs coal". Phys.org.
  37. "California leads the way on climate action". C2es.org. November 12, 2012.

Further reading
  • B. Lynn Ingram; Frances Malamud-Roam (July 2, 2013). The West without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us about Tomorrow. University of California Press. ISBN 978-0520954809.
  • Stine, Scott (June 1990). "Late holocene fluctuations of Mono Lake, eastern California". Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. Elsevier. 78 (3–4): 333–81. Bibcode:1990PPP....78..333S. doi:10.1016/0031-0182(90)90221-R.
  • Gonzalez, P.; G.M. Garfin; D.D. Breshears; K.M. Brooks; H.E. Brown; E.H. Elias; A. Gunasekara; N. Huntly; J.K. Maldonado; N.J. Mantua; H.G. Margolis; S. McAfee; B.R. Middleton; B.H. Udall (2018). "Southwest". In Reidmiller, D.R.; C.W. Avery; D.R. Easterling; K.E. Kunkel; K.L.M. Lewis; T.K. Maycock; B.C. Stewart (eds.). Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II (Report). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Global Change Research Program. pp. 1101–1184. doi:10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH25. -- this chapter of the National Climate Assessment covers Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah
Legislation
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