2018 Irish presidential election

The 2018 Irish presidential election took place on Friday, 26 October, between 7.00 a.m. and 10.00 p.m.[2] President Michael D. Higgins, who was elected in 2011, was seeking re-election.[3] This was the first time since the 1966 election that an incumbent president faced a contest for a second term. Higgins was re-elected on the first count with nearly 56% of the vote, becoming the first president since Éamon de Valera to win a second term in a contested election (Patrick Hillery (1983) and Mary McAleese (2004) had been re-elected unopposed.)[4] He was inaugurated for his second term on 11 November.

2018 Irish presidential election
26 October 2018
Turnout43.9%[1]
 
Nominee Michael D. Higgins Peter Casey Seán Gallagher
Party Independent Independent Independent
1st preference 822,566 (55.8%) 342,727 (23.3%) 94,514 (6.4%)
 
Nominee Liadh Ní Riada Joan Freeman Gavin Duffy
Party Sinn Féin Independent Independent
1st preference 93,987 (6.4%) 87,908 (6.0%) 32,198 (2.2%)
President before election

Michael D. Higgins
Independent

 Elected President

Michael D. Higgins
Independent

The election was held on the same date as a referendum on blasphemy.[5]

Procedure
Main article: Irish presidential election

To stand for election as president, candidates must:

  • be a citizen of Ireland
  • be at least 35 years of age
  • be nominated by:
    • at least twenty of the 218 serving members of the Houses of the Oireachtas (parliament), or
    • at least four of the 31 county or city councils, or
    • themselves, in the case of a former or retiring president who has served one term.

If a member of the Oireachtas or a County or City council nominate more than one candidate, only the first nomination paper received from them will be deemed valid.[6] Presidential elections are conducted in line with Article 12 of the Constitution[7] and under the Presidential Elections Act 1993, as amended.[6] The President of Ireland is elected through proportional representation - single transferable vote.[8] All Irish citizens entered on the current electoral register are eligible to vote.[7] Under the Electoral (Amendment) Act 2011, there is a spending limit by each candidate of €750,000. Candidates who are elected or who reach 12.5% of the vote on their elimination are entitled to a reimbursement of expenses up to €200,000.[9]

Nomination process

On 28 August the Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government, Eoghan Murphy, signed the order for the presidential election, specifying the nomination period as between 10 a.m. on 30 August and 12 noon on 26 September 2018.[2]

On 10 July 2018, incumbent president Michael D. Higgins declared that he would exercise his right to nominate himself as a candidate for the presidential election.[10][11][3] Higgins had said in 2011 that he intended to serve one term only, but changed his mind over the course of his term.[12] Higgins's website and social media accounts became active on 17 September, having been dormant since his inauguration in November 2011.[13] He formally nominated himself on 24 September.[3]

Sinn Féin was the only party to select a candidate. With 28 Oireachtas members (22 TDs and six Senators), the party could nominate a candidate without the need for additional nominations from independents to reach the requirement of 20 Oireachtas members, as they had required in 2011. Nearly all other parties in the Oireachtas supported the re-election of Michael D. Higgins. People Before Profit declined to support any candidate in the election.[14] Independent TD Michael Fitzmaurice had tried to gather the support of other Independent TDs and Senators to support a candidate, but was unsuccessful. Nineteen were willing to be involved in his effort to find a candidate, one short of the twenty required to be nominated.[15] Eleven Oireachtas members signed a nomination form for Gemma O'Doherty, nine short of the required number.[16]

18 local authorities passed resolutions supporting a particular candidate, while the remaining 13 either passed no resolution or passed a resolution declining to nominate any candidate. Candidates needed the support of at least four local authorities to be a candidate in the election.

Name Occupation Resolutions Councils
Peter Casey Businessman 4 Clare,[17] Kerry,[18][19] Limerick,[18][20] Tipperary[18][21][22]
Gavin Duffy Businessman 4 Meath, Carlow, Wicklow, Waterford[23]
Joan Freeman Senator 4 Cork City,[17] Fingal,[24] Galway County,[18][25] Galway City[26]
Seán Gallagher Businessman 5 Roscommon,[18][25] Mayo,[18][25] Leitrim,[27] Wexford,[28] Cavan[29]
Gemma O'Doherty Journalist 1 Laois[30][31]
No candidate 13 Dublin City,[32] Dún Laoghaire–Rathdown,[33] Louth,[34] Kilkenny,[33] Monaghan,[33] Offaly,[33] South Dublin,[35] Westmeath,[33] Kildare,[30] Cork County, Donegal, Longford, Sligo

Others who had sought a nomination from local authorities were: Norma Burke,[32] William Delaney, Patrick Feeney, John Groarke, Patrick Melly, Marie Goretti Moylan, Sarah Louise Mulligan, Kevin Sharkey, James Smyth,[25] David Doucette,[36] and John O'Hare.[37] Sharkey withdrew his name from consideration during the nomination period, calling for the nomination of Gemma O'Doherty.[38] Senator Gerard Craughwell had said that he would seek the nomination if Higgins were otherwise to be unopposed.[39][40] However, in July he announced that he would not contest the presidential election, in light of Sinn Féin's decision to run a candidate.[41] He also cited the financial costs of running for the presidency as a factor in his decision not to contest the election.[42] Despite Fianna Fáil support for the incumbent Michael D. Higgins, a few of the party's Councillors urged the leadership to nominate Galway West TD Éamon Ó Cuív, but he declined to allow his name to proceed as he would risk his party membership.[43]

Candidates

Six candidates contested the presidential election, having been selected by their parties or having received sufficient council nominations.

Debates
Irish presidential election debates, 2018
Date BroadcasterModerator Participants
 P  Participant    A  Absent invitee   Casey Duffy Freeman Gallagher Higgins Ní Riada
27 September[52] RTÉ Radio 1 Áine Lawlor P P P A[lower-alpha 1] A[lower-alpha 1] P
13 October[53] RTÉ Radio 1 Cormac Ó hEadhra P P P P P P
15 October[54] RTÉ One TV Claire Byrne P P P A[lower-alpha 1] A[lower-alpha 1] P
17 October[54] Virgin Media One Pat Kenny P P P P P P
23 October[54] RTÉ One TV David McCullagh P P P P P P
24 October[54] Virgin Media One Matt Cooper / Ivan Yates P P P P A P
  1. Higgins did not participate due to scheduling conflicts, and Gallagher did not participate because Higgins did not take part.

Opinion and exit polling
Last date
of polling		 Polling firm / Commissioner Casey Duffy Freeman Gallagher Higgins Ní Riada
24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail[55] [lower-alpha 1] 10% 3% 11% 65% 11%[lower-alpha 2]
16 September 2018 RED C/The Sunday Business Post[56] 1% 6% 3% 15% 67% 7%[lower-alpha 2]
10 October 2018 Red C/Paddy Power[57] 1% 4% 6% 14% 70% 5%
12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI/The Irish Times[58] 2% 4% 5% 12% 66% 11%
16 October 2018 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[59] 2% 4% 6% 11% 69% 7%
Exit polls
26 October 2018 Red C/RTÉ[60] 20.7% 2.0% 6.3% 5.5% 58.1% 7.4%
26 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI/The Irish Times[61] 21% 2% 6% 7% 56% 8%
  1. Poll conducted before Casey's candidacy was announced.
  2. Figure for "Sinn Féin candidate". Poll conducted before Ní Riada's candidacy was announced.

Result

The count began at 09:00 on Saturday 27 October.

2018 Irish presidential election[62]
CandidateNominated by% 1st PrefCount 1
Michael D. Higgins Himself as incumbent president 55.81 822,566
Peter Casey County and City Councils 23.25 342,727
Seán Gallagher County and City Councils 6.41 94,514
Liadh Ní Riada Oireachtas: Sinn Féin 6.38 93,987
Joan Freeman County and City Councils 5.96 87,908
Gavin Duffy County and City Councils 2.18 32,198
Electorate: 3,401,681   Valid: 1,473,900   Spoilt: 18,438   Quota: 736,951   Turnout: 1,492,338 (43.9%)
First preference vote
Higgins
 
 55.8%
Casey
 
 23.3%
Gallagher
 
 6.4%
Ní Riada
 
 6.4%
Freeman
 
 6.0%
Duffy
 
 2.2%

Constituency results
First preference votes by constituency[63]
Constituency Higgins Casey Gallagher Ní Riada Freeman Duffy
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Carlow–Kilkenny 25,717 52.0% 13,929 28.2% 3,506 7.1% 2,419 4.9% 2,636 5.3% 1,265 2.6%
Cavan–Monaghan 16,749 44.3% 7,023 18.6% 6,771 17.9% 4,167 11.0% 2,063 5.5% 1,000 2.6%
Clare 22,639 54.7% 11,722 28.3% 2,289 5.5% 2,186 5.3% 1,969 4.8% 617 1.5%
Cork East 20,388 53.6% 9,340 24.5% 2,625 6.9% 2,705 7.1% 2,283 6.0% 716 1.9%
Cork North-Central 18,851 54.0% 8,382 24.0% 1,977 5.7% 3,112 8.9% 2,010 5.8% 545 1.6%
Cork North-West 17,638 51.5% 8,092 23.6% 3,199 9.3% 2,824 8.2% 1,855 5.4% 630 1.8%
Cork South-Central 24,161 60.5% 7,323 18.3% 2,164 5.4% 3,072 7.7% 2,554 6.4% 642 1.6%
Cork South-West 16,860 55.1% 6,582 21.5% 2,374 7.8% 2,489 8.1% 1,635 5.3% 680 2.2%
Donegal 15,052 38.1% 12,952 32.8% 3,684 9.3% 4,524 11.4% 2,563 6.5% 747 1.9%
Dublin Bay South 20,765 71.5% 3,433 11.8% 1,116 3.8% 1,221 4.2% 1,884 6.5% 626 2.2%
Dublin Bay North 32,198 63.9% 8,009 15.9% 2,500 5.0% 3,315 6.6% 3,372 6.7% 1,010 2.0%
Dublin Central 10,094 66.7% 1,692 11.2% 529 3.5% 1,749 11.6% 868 5.7% 203 1.3%
Dublin Fingal 27,039 63.1% 7,505 17.5% 2,369 5.5% 2,290 5.3% 2,643 6.2% 986 2.3%
Dublin Mid-West 17,196 59.3% 5,128 17.7% 1,433 4.9% 1,978 6.8% 2,734 9.4% 526 1.8%
Dublin North-West 14,728 62.6% 3,737 15.9% 1,121 4.8% 1,932 8.2% 1,546 6.6% 451 1.9%
Dublin Rathdown 21,704 68.7% 4,385 13.9% 1,487 4.7% 1,141 3.6% 2,177 6.9% 711 2.2%
Dublin South-Central 17,930 65.0% 3,794 13.8% 1,105 4.0% 2,282 8.3% 2,039 7.4% 441 1.6%
Dublin South-West 28,151 62.2% 8,324 18.4% 2,237 4.9% 2,584 5.7% 3,011 6.7% 929 2.1%
Dublin West 17,545 62.1% 4,887 17.3% 1,430 5.1% 1,842 6.5% 2,053 7.3% 514 1.8%
Dún Laoghaire 31,513 70.2% 5,872 13.1% 2,044 4.6% 1,596 3.6% 2,866 6.4% 1,000 2.2%
Galway East 18,011 53.4% 11,227 33.3% 1,379 4.1% 1,029 3.1% 1,545 4.6% 516 1.5%
Galway West 29,612 62.4% 10,821 22.8% 1,783 3.8% 2,161 4.6% 2,445 5.1% 660 1.4%
Kerry 25,078 50.1% 13,752 27.5% 2,856 5.7% 4,253 8.5% 3,102 6.2% 1,037 2.1%
Kildare North 23,103 61.3% 7,210 19.1% 2,258 6.0% 1,523 4.0% 2,751 7.3% 844 2.2%
Kildare South 14,766 56.9% 5,819 22.4% 1,829 7.0% 1,307 5.0% 1,619 6.2% 633 2.4%
Laois 13,754 49.8% 8,419 30.5% 1,845 6.7% 1,443 5.2% 1,464 5.3% 718 2.6%
Limerick County 15,262 48.1% 10,865 34.2% 1,756 5.5% 1,438 4.5% 1,762 5.6% 658 2.1%
Limerick City 18,904 57.7% 7,845 23.9% 1,557 4.8% 1,964 6.0% 1,917 5.9% 578 1.8%
Longford–Westmeath 18,024 47.5% 12,005 31.6% 2,873 7.6% 2,089 5.5% 2,122 5.6% 829 2.2%
Louth 26,291 58.4% 7,223 16.0% 2,934 6.5% 4,175 9.3% 2,291 5.1% 2,101 4.7%
Mayo 20,642 49.8% 12,850 31.0% 2,235 5.4% 2,107 5.1% 2,663 6.4% 937 2.3%
Meath East 16,754 56.7% 6,064 20.5% 2,060 7.0% 1,654 5.6% 1,883 6.4% 1,142 3.9%
Meath West 14,522 54.1% 5,917 22.0% 1,943 7.2% 1,847 6.9% 1,727 6.4% 904 3.4%
Offaly 13,977 47.0% 9,253 31.1% 2,672 9.0% 1,444 4.9% 1,691 5.7% 673 2.3%
Roscommon–Galway 14,246 45.1% 10,918 34.5% 2,270 7.2% 1,617 5.1% 1,850 5.9% 713 2.3%
Sligo–Leitrim 20,601 49.1% 11,132 26.5% 3,749 8.9% 3,172 7.6% 2,475 5.9% 859 2.0%
Tipperary 24,917 45.5% 20,149 36.8% 3,077 5.6% 2,827 5.2% 2,723 5.0% 1,106 2.0%
Waterford 18,609 52.2% 8,822 24.7% 2,530 7.1% 2,837 8.0% 2,025 5.7% 847 2.4%
Wexford 27,020 55.5% 11,818 24.3% 3,499 7.2% 2,939 6.0% 2,272 4.7% 1,161 2.4%
Wicklow 31,555 63.0% 8,507 17.0% 3,449 6.9% 2,733 5.5% 2,820 5.6% 1,043 2.1%
Total 822,566 55.8% 342,727 23.3% 94,514 6.4% 93,987 6.4% 87,908 6.0% 32,198 2.2%

Analysis

The Irish Times's analysis of its exit poll data said that Michael D. Higgins seemed on course to be comfortably re-elected on the first count, after leading in the opinion polls throughout the campaign, despite "considerable criticism over his use of the Government jet, expensive hotel accommodation on overseas visits and the lack of transparency over how an annual €300,000 allowance for his office was spent".[61] It attributed the expected low turnout to "a lack of public enthusiasm for the contest that was evident throughout the campaign".[61]

It ascribed Peter Casey's second place to a late surge of support following his criticisms of Travellers and his claim that Ireland had "a growing culture of welfare dependency", and it added that at some polling stations pollsters reported that "he was attracting as many voters as Mr Higgins".[61] It said that Seán Gallagher appeared to be down 22% on his 2011 figure of 29%, but that the biggest disappointment would probably be for Sinn Féin, whose candidate Liadh Ní Riada's expected 8% was well down on its general election result, and only a third of the party's support in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI Opinion poll.[61] It described Senator Joan Freeman's expected performance as "just 6 per cent of the vote", and Gavin Duffy's expected result as him having "flopped completely, ending a miserable campaign with just 2 per cent of the vote".[61]

When analysing the Red C/RTÉ exit poll,[60] RTÉ Political Correspondent Martina Fitzgerald said that the data showed that President Higgins was very popular among voters regardless of age and gender but was particularly popular among women and younger votes despite the debate about his age, which most voters saw as irrelevant. The most important factor cited by voters was the candidates' track record and expertise, while the finances and salary of the president were the least important factor.[64]

Fitzgerald added that "the real political story" was that the result was "a disastrous election" for Sinn Féin, and "a serious blow" for which party leader Mary Lou McDonald would have to take "full responsibility".[64] Fitzgerald also noted that the combined total of the three former Dragons Den judges (Casey, Gallagher, and Duffy) was very similar to Gallagher's vote in 2011, suggesting that vote had held up, but that Casey had taken most of it this time.[64]

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gollark: Maybe I should try some other test cases.
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