2007 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

The 2007 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 27 May 2007, to elect the 7th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 47 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2007 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

27 May 2007
All 47 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha 24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,506,504 4.0%
Turnout	1,110,885 (73.7%) 2.5 pp
First party Second party   Leader José María Barreda María Dolores de Cospedal Party PSOE PP Leader since 29 April 2004 14 June 2006 Leader's seat Toledo Toledo Last election 29 seats, 57.8% 18 seats, 36.7% Seats won 26 21 Seat change 3 3 Popular vote 572,849 467,319 Percentage 52.0% 42.4% Swing 5.8 pp 5.7 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
President before election José María Barreda PSOE Elected President José María Barreda PSOE

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 47 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[2] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was allocated a fixed number of seats: 10 for Albacete, 11 for Ciudad Real, 8 for Cuenca, 7 for Guadalajara and 11 for Toledo.[1][3]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[3][4][5]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 25 May 2003, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 27 May 2007.[1][3][4][5]

The President of the Junta of Communities had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 24 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				Lead
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	N/A	73.7	52.0 26	42.4 21	3.4 0	9.6
Ipsos/RTVE–FORTA[p 1][p 2]	27 May 2007	?	?	? 25/28	? 19/22	? 0	?
Opina/Cadena SER[p 3][p 4]	18 May 2007	1,000	?	53.0 26/27	41.0 20	? 0/1	12.0
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 5][p 6]	15 May 2007	?	?	56.1 27/29	39.0 18/20	3.6 0	17.1
Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 7][p 8]	9–15 May 2007	?	?	53.7 26/27	41.8 20/21	3.5 0	11.9
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 9][p 10]	27 Apr–8 May 2007	1,000	?	52.0 25/27	42.3 20/22	2.9 0	9.7
CIS[p 11][p 12]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,992	?	54.4 26/28	40.7 19/21	3.7 0	13.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 13][p 14]	16–24 Nov 2006	?	?	? 24/27	? 20/23	? 0	?
2004 EP election	13 Jun 2004	N/A	51.5	45.8 22	49.7 25	2.7 0	3.9
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	N/A	79.9	46.5 23	47.4 24	3.4 0	0.9
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	N/A	76.3	57.8 29	36.7 18	3.0 0	21.1

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 27 May 2007 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	572,849	51.96	–5.87	26	–3
	People's Party (PP)	467,319	42.38	+5.72	21	+3
	United Left–Left of Castilla–La Mancha (IU–ICAM)	37,753	3.42	+0.37	0	±0
	The Greens of Europe (LVE)	3,542	0.32	New	0	±0
	Commoners' Land (TC)	2,525	0.23	+0.03	0	±0
	Castilian Unity (UdCa)	1,213	0.11	–0.01	0	±0
	The Phalanx (FE)	1,071	0.10	+0.06	0	±0
	Regionalist Party of Guadalajara (PRGU)	619	0.06	+0.01	0	±0
	Independent Regional Unity (URI)	610	0.06	+0.01	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	572	0.05	+0.01	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	410	0.04	±0.00	0	±0
Blank ballots		14,080	1.28	–0.05
Total		1,102,563			47	±0
Valid votes		1,102,563	99.25	–0.07
Invalid votes		8,322	0.75	+0.07
Votes cast / turnout		1,110,885	73.74	–2.50
Abstentions		395,619	26.26	+2.50
Registered voters		1,506,504
Sources[6][7][8]

Popular vote PSOE   51.96% PP   42.38% IU–ICAM   3.42% Others   0.96% Blank ballots   1.28%

Seats PSOE   55.32% PP   44.68%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		PP
	%	S	%	S
Albacete	52.6	6	40.7	4
Ciudad Real	55.7	7	39.2	4
Cuenca	50.9	4	44.7	4
Guadalajara	45.8	3	46.6	4
Toledo	51.0	6	43.7	5
Total	52.0	26	42.4	21
Sources[6][7][8]

Aftermath

Investiture José María Barreda (PSOE)
Ballot →		26 June 2007
Required majority →		24 out of 47 Y
	Yes • PSOE (26)	26 / 47
	No • PP (21)	21 / 47
	Abstentions	0 / 47
	Absentees	0 / 47
Sources[8]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Sólo Navarra y Baleares podrían cambiar de gobierno, según el sondeo de RTVE y FORTA". Europa Press (in Spanish). 27 May 2007.
2. "Las "israelitas" no aclaran el futuro político de Guadalajara". La Crónica de Guadalajara (in Spanish). 27 May 2007.
3. "El PSOE mantiene su mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 21 May 2007.
4. "Informe Comunidad Castilla-La Mancha. Mayo 2007". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 21 May 2007. Archived from the original on 23 May 2007. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
5. "Barreda (PSOE) se impondría a De Cospedal (PP) en las autonómicas por 17,1 puntos, según el diario La Tribuna". Europa Press (in Spanish). 15 May 2007.
6. "El PSOE ganaría en Castilla-La Mancha tras 23 años en la Junta". CuencaNews (in Spanish). 19 May 2007.
7. "Vuelco electoral en Navarra, Baleares y Canarias y aplastante victoria del PP en Madrid". Terra (in Spanish). 17 May 2007. Archived from the original on 20 May 2007. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
8. "Encuestas autonómicas". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 17 May 2007. Archived from the original on 11 May 2009. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
9. "Sondeo de Sigma Dos: El PSOE mantendría sus comunidades si revalida las coaliciones". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 May 2007.
10. "Elecciones 27-M / Sondeo El Mundo-Sigma Dos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
11. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2007. CA de Castilla–La Mancha (Estudio nº 2692. Abril-Mayo 2007)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2007.
12. "La aritmética juega en contra del PSOE sólo en las islas Canarias". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
13. "El PP y el PSOE mantendrán sus gobiernos autonómicos, aunque los socialistas bajan". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006.
14. "El voto en las comunidades. Elecciones autonómicas 2007" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006.

Other

1. "Statute of Autonomy of Castilla–La Mancha of 1982". Organic Law No. 9 of 10 August 1982. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
2. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
3. "Castilla–La Mancha Electoral Law of 1986". Law No. 5 of 23 December 1986. Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
4. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
6. "Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results, 27 May 2007" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Castilla–La Mancha. 14 June 2007. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
7. "VII Legislature. Regional election, 27 May 2007". www.cortesclm.es (in Spanish). Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
8. "Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 29 September 2017.