2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election

The 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky.[1] The Democratic nominee, Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear, defeated Republican incumbent Matt Bevin by just over 5,000 votes, or 0.37%, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Kentucky since 1899.[2] Bevin conceded on November 14,[3] after a recanvass took place that day[4][3][5] that did not change the vote count.[3] Libertarian John Hicks also qualified for the ballot and received 2% of the vote. Statewide turnout was just over 42%,[6] much higher than for the 2015 gubernatorial election. The result was a major swing from 2016, when Donald Trump won the state by 30 points and Republicans gained a supermajority in both chambers of the Kentucky General Assembly.

See also: 2019 Kentucky elections and 2019 United States gubernatorial elections
2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election
November 5, 2019
Turnout42%
 
Nominee Andy Beshear Matt Bevin
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Ralph Alvarado
Popular vote 709,890 704,754
Percentage 49.20% 48.83%
County results
Beshear:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Bevin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Matt Bevin
Republican

 Elected Governor

Andy Beshear
Democratic

Elections in Kentucky
Government

Background

Major-party primary elections occurred on May 21, 2019.[7] Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Bevin was renominated by the Republican Party, and Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear won the Democratic nomination.[8]

Bevin announced on January 25, 2019, that he would run for a second term, choosing State Senator Ralph Alvarado as his running mate over incumbent Lieutenant Governor Jenean Hampton.[9] No Republican governor of Kentucky has ever been elected to more than one term, even after the state's constitutional prohibition of governors serving consecutive terms was repealed in 1992. The only Republican before Bevin to run for reelection, Ernie Fletcher, was defeated by Democrat Steve Beshear in 2007. Bevin is only the second Republican governor of Kentucky in the last 50 years. Andy Beshear is the first governor of Kentucky to be a direct relative of a former governor.

Beshear had the support of 2020 Senate candidate Amy McGrath, his father and former governor Steve Beshear, former governor Paul Patton, and representative and primary challenger Rocky Adkins, all well-known Democrats in the state. Bevin had the support of President Donald Trump, who remains relatively popular in the state, particularly in rural areas. Trump and US Senator Rand Paul held a rally in support of Bevin and Republican Attorney General nominee Daniel Cameron the day before the election. Many considered the decisive factor in this election whether voters would vote based on local issues, as Bevin and his policies were deeply unpopular,[10] or as a referendum on Trump, with whom Bevin closely aligned. The former would be more favorable for Democrats, the latter for Republicans.

Beshear won thanks to overwhelming support in Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky's two main population hubs, and their suburbs, as well as major vote swings in the Republican leaning Cincinnati suburbs and lackluster performance by Bevin in Republican strongholds, particularly the coal country of Eastern Kentucky, where Beshear won multiple counties that overwhelmingly voted Republican in 2016.[11] Voter turnout was high across the state compared to past Kentucky elections, with a statewide turnout of about 42%. Fayette County (Lexington) saw a 20% increase in voter turnout, and Beshear received over twice as many votes in the county than the 2015 Democratic nominee for governor, Jack Conway. Unusually high turnout was seen as a major factor in Beshear's win.[6]

Beshear's win coincided with Democratic momentum nationwide in elections in 2017, 2018, and 2019, following the election of Donald Trump in 2016.[12] However, Republicans won all other statewide offices in Kentucky, including the attorney general and secretary of state offices which Democrats held going into the election.[13]

Recanvassing

Beshear declared victory after the initial vote count,[14] selecting J. Michael Brown to lead his transition team.[15] Bevin refused to concede and requested a recanvassing of the vote, which took place on November 14.[5] A recanvassing is a reprint of the voting receipts from each voting machine, and is done to make sure county officials recorded vote totals correctly. It is not a recount, which the Kentucky State Constitution does not permit for gubernatorial races. The recanvass resulted in only one change, an additional vote for Independent candidate Blackii Effing Whyte, and Bevin conceded that day.[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements
Matt Bevin

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Individuals

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Bevin		 Robert
Goforth		 Ike
Lawrence		 William
Woods		 Undecided
Cygnal May 10–12, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 56% 18% 2% 1% 23%

Results
County results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin (incumbent) 136,060 52.4%
Republican Robert Goforth 101,343 39.0%
Republican William Woods 14,004 5.4%
Republican Ike Lawrence 8,447 3.3%
Total votes 259,854 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements
Rocky Adkins

Statewide officials

Andy Beshear

Statewide officials

Adam Edelen

Members of the Kentucky legislature

Current and Former Elected Officials

Media

Groups

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Rocky
Adkins		 Andy
Beshear		 Adam
Edelen		 Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] April 15–18, 2019 601 ± 4.0% 17% 44% 16% 23%
ALG Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] April 11–15, 2019 500 – 22% 43% 23% –
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] February 4–7, 2019 603 ± 4.0% 17% 55% 7% 21%

Results
County results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Beshear 149,438 37.9%
Democratic Rocky Adkins 125,970 31.9%
Democratic Adam Edelen 110,159 27.9%
Democratic Geoff Young 8,923 2.3%
Total votes 394,490 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Convention

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky is currently recognized as a "political organization" under state law, a status that grants the party ballot access, but denies it a state-operated primary. Libertarian candidates were nominated at the party's nominating convention, held in March 2019.[50][51]

Nominated

  • John Hicks, IT consultant[52][50]
    • Running mate: Ann Cormican, factory worker[52][50]

Write-in

Declared

General election

Losing by a margin of less than 0.4 percentage points, Bevin did not immediately concede and requested a recanvass, or review of counted votes,[55] which was held on November 14.[56][57] According to the Kentucky state constitution, the swearing in of a Kentucky governor must be held on the fifth Tuesday following the election (December 10).[58][59] While a recount law does exist in Kentucky, it does not permit recounts for gubernatorial elections.[60] Should a candidate contest the election results, the state legislature would determine the winner after hearing a report from a randomly selected 11-member committee from the House (8) and Senate (3).[60] This process, which is enforced through the Goebel Election Law, has only been used once, during the 1899 Kentucky gubernatorial election.[61][62] Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers and some other Republican members of the Kentucky state legislature expressed skepticism of Bevin's voter fraud claims and on November 7 urged Bevin to concede if the recanvass did not go in his favor.[63][64] On November 11, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, announced that "all indications are" Beshear would be the next governor.[65] The recanvass did not result in any changes in the vote totals for either Beshear or Bevin, but found an additional vote for write-in candidate Blackii Effing Whyte.[3]

With the recanvass producing no change in his vote total, Bevin conceded the race on November 14. Beshear was sworn in as governor on December 10, 2019.[66]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[67] Tossup October 15, 2019
Inside Elections[68] Tossup November 8, 2019
Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] Lean R November 8, 2019

Debates
Dates Location Bevin Beshear Hicks Link
July 17, 2019 Louisville Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate - Kentucky Farm Bureau
October 3, 2019 Paducah Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate - Courier Journal
October 15, 2019 Lexington Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate - Courier Journal
October 26, 2019 Louisville Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate - WLKY
October 29, 2019 Highland Heights Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate - WLWT

Endorsements
Matt Bevin (R)

Federal politicians

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Governors

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

  • Bowling Green Daily News[81]
Andy Beshear (D)

Statewide officials

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Individuals

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Bevin (R)		 Andy
Beshear (D)		 John
Hicks (L)		 Undecided
NBC News/Marist October 30 – November 3, 2019 564 (LV) ± 5.2% 47% 47% 2% 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29 – November 2, 2019 1,117 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 47% 1% 0%
Targoz Market Research (D) October 13–20, 2019 401 (LV) ± 4.2% 36% 55% 4% 6%
Mason-Dixon October 10–13, 2019 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 1% 7%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] August 19–22, 2019 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 48% 6% 7%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[upper-alpha 3] August 12–13, 2019 792 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 48% 5% 4%
Gravis Marketing (R) June 11–12, 2019 741 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 42% – 10%
SurveyUSA/Planned Parenthood June 4-11, 2019 500 (RV) ± 4% 36% 51% – –
Mason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 48% – 12%
Hypothetical polling
with Rocky Adkins
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Bevin (R)		 Rocky
Adkins (D)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17%
with Alison Lundergan Grimes
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Bevin (R)		 Alison Lundergan
Grimes (D)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Bevin (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 4] May 6–7, 2019 676 ± 3.8% 39% 49% 11%

Results
Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2019[112][113]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Andy Beshear 709,890 49.20% +5.37%
Republican Matt Bevin (incumbent) 704,754 48.83% -3.68%
Libertarian John Hicks 28,433 1.97% N/A
Write-in 46 0.00% N/A
Total votes 1,443,123 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Results by congressional district

Despite winning only the two of the state’s six congressional districts, Beshear still won the popular vote. Beshear won the 3rd and 6th districts, which encompass Kentucky’s two urban centers, Louisville and Lexington, and their suburbs. Bevin won the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th districts, which represent the more rural areas of the state.[114]

District PVI Andy
Beshear		 Matt
Bevin		 John
Hicks		 Incumbent
Representative
1st R+23 41.7% 56.2% 2.1% James Comer
2nd R+19 39.1% 59.0% 1.9% Brett Guthrie
3rd D+6 67.1% 31.4% 1.5% John Yarmuth
4th R+18 45.3% 52.5% 2.2% Thomas Massie
5th R+31 40.2% 57.5% 2.3% Hal Rogers
6th R+9 55.6% 42.5% 1.9% Andy Barr

Results by county

[115]

CountyCandidate
Andy Beshear Matt Bevin John Hicks Write-ins
Adair 28.65% 1,626 69.53% 3,946 1.74% 99 0.07% 4
Allen 31.06% 1,649 67.13% 3,564 1.81% 96 0.00% 0
Anderson 41.50% 3,978 56.12% 5,380 2.37% 227 0.00% 0
Ballard 32.90% 1,012 65.34% 2,010 1.76% 54 0.00% 0
Barren 39.91% 5,280 58.15% 7,693 1.94% 256 0.00% 0
Bath 51.98% 1,886 46.09% 1,672 1.93% 70 0.00% 0
Bell 36.54% 2,013 61.68% 3,398 1.78% 98 0.00% 0
Boone 41.42% 16,947 56.21% 23,000 2.37% 970 0.00% 1
Bourbon 48.10% 3,323 50.12% 3,463 1.78% 123 0.00% 0
Boyd 51.76% 6,989 45.79% 6,182 2.45% 331 0.00% 0
Boyle 49.03% 5,099 49.07% 5,103 1.90% 198 0.00% 0
Bracken 41.98% 1,063 53.99% 1,367 4.03% 102 0.00% 0
Breathitt 50.21% 1,889 48.38% 1,820 1.41% 53 0.00% 0
Breckinridge 40.53% 2,775 56.92% 3,897 2.56% 175 0.00% 0
Bullitt 42.56% 11,275 54.80% 14,517 2.64% 700 0.00% 1
Butler 29.99% 1,134 68.08% 2,574 1.93% 73 0.00% 0
Caldwell 34.12% 1,510 64.25% 2,843 1.63% 72 0.00% 0
Calloway 43.90% 5,160 53.97% 6,344 2.14% 251 0.00% 0
Campbell 51.78% 16,352 46.20% 14,587 2.02% 638 0.00% 0
Carlisle 27.93% 529 70.27% 1,331 1.80% 34 0.00% 0
Carroll 45.14% 1,184 52.38% 1,374 2.48% 65 0.00% 0
Carter 50.43% 3,732 46.51% 3,442 3.07% 227 0.00% 0
Casey 25.14% 1,208 73.47% 3,530 1.37% 66 0.02% 1
Christian 42.14% 6,023 55.79% 7,974 2.07% 296 0.00% 0
Clark 45.58% 5,876 52.57% 6,777 1.85% 238 0.00% 0
Clay 28.10% 1,298 69.82% 3,225 2.08% 96 0.00% 0
Clinton 24.86% 692 73.53% 2,047 1.62% 45 0.00% 0
Crittenden 30.96% 916 66.81% 1,977 2.23% 66 0.00% 0
Cumberland 25.74% 503 72.57% 1,418 1.69% 33 0.00% 0
Daviess 47.02% 16,012 50.62% 17,238 2.36% 805 0.00% 0
Edmonson 37.12% 1,383 61.30% 2,284 1.58% 59 0.00% 0
Elliott 59.27% 1,148 38.56% 747 2.17% 42 0.00% 0
Estill 39.10% 1,617 58.68% 2,427 2.20% 91 0.02% 1
Fayette 65.51% 73,397 32.95% 36,915 1.53% 1,719 0.00% 4
Fleming 38.40% 1,807 59.88% 2,818 1.72% 81 0.00% 0
Floyd 52.56% 5,903 44.95% 5,048 2.48% 279 0.00% 0
Franklin 61.51% 12,888 36.13% 7,570 2.53% 493 0.00% 0
Fulton 40.23% 589 58.54% 857 1.23% 18 0.00% 0
Gallatin 39.99% 871 56.84% 1,238 3.17% 69 0.00% 0
Garrard 34.56% 2,004 63.39% 3,676 2.05% 119 0.00% 0
Grant 35.19% 2,261 62.41% 4,010 2.40% 154 0.00% 0
Graves 32.90% 4,214 64.64% 8,278 2.46% 315 0.00% 0
Grayson 32.20% 2,621 65.34% 5,319 2.47% 201 0.00% 0
Green 26.19% 997 72.05% 2,743 1.76% 67 0.00% 0
Greenup 45.29% 5,102 52.41% 5,905 2.30% 259 0.00% 0
Hancock 51.75% 1,891 45.16% 1,650 3.09% 113 0.00% 0
Hardin 46.47% 14,524 51.25% 16,018 2.27% 710 0.00% 0
Harlan 28.85% 1,867 69.05% 4,468 2.10% 136 0.00% 0
Harrison 42.91% 2,535 55.06% 3,253 2.03% 120 0.00% 0
Hart 37.99% 1,997 59.80% 3,143 2.21% 116 0.00% 0
Henderson 51.25% 6,863 47.07% 6,303 1.68% 225 0.00% 0
Henry 42.23% 2,325 55.77% 3,070 2.00% 110 0.00% 0
Hickman 30.01% 469 68.59% 1,072 1.41% 22 0.00% 0
Hopkins 39.23% 5,411 58.56% 8,077 2.20% 304 0.00% 0
Jackson 18.50% 749 79.38% 3,214 2.12% 86 0.00% 0
Jefferson 66.99% 186,561 31.51% 87,740 1.50% 4,171 0.00% 7
Jessamine 43.04% 8,102 55.05% 10,363 1.91% 360 0.01% 1
Johnson 35.53% 2,304 61.51% 3,988 2.96% 192 0.00% 0
Kenton 49.48% 25,479 48.42% 24,936 2.10% 1,082 0.00% 1
Knott 49.38% 2,096 48.34% 2,052 2.17% 92 0.12% 5
Knox 32.52% 2,658 65.41% 5,346 2.07% 169 0.00% 0
Larue 37.11% 1,744 60.32% 2,835 2.57% 121 0.00% 0
Laurel 26.55% 4,722 71.22% 12,667 2.23% 397 0.00% 0
Lawrence 37.85% 1,515 60.38% 2,417 1.77% 71 0.00% 0
Lee 33.04% 675 64.66% 1,321 2.30% 47 0.00% 0
Leslie 22.51% 680 75.79% 2,289 2.37% 51 0.00% 0
Letcher 44.85% 2,626 52.76% 3,089 2.37% 139 0.02% 1
Lewis 27.28% 948 69.76% 2,424 2.96% 103 0.00% 0
Lincoln 35.82% 2,558 62.03% 4,430 2.16% 154 0.00% 0
Livingston 36.03% 1,205 62.32% 2,084 1.64% 55 0.00% 0
Logan 38.29% 2,911 59.52% 4,525 2.18% 166 0.00% 0
Lyon 40.75% 1,253 57.85% 1,779 1.40% 43 0.00% 0
Madison 48.96% 15,017 48.72% 14,943 2.30% 705 0.03% 8
Magoffin 53.57% 1,968 44.34% 1,629 2.10% 77 0.00% 0
Marion 52.05% 3,155 45.98% 2,787 1.96% 119 0.00% 0
Marshall 38.21% 4,834 59.49% 7,526 2.29% 290 0.00% 0
Martin 25.12% 554 72.38% 1,596 2.49% 55 0.00% 0
Mason 44.25% 2,246 53.57% 2,719 2.19% 111 0.00% 0
McCracken 41.60% 9,695 56.87% 13,252 1.52% 355 0.00% 1
McCreary 28.82% 1,340 68.42% 3,181 2.71% 126 0.04% 2
McLean 38.02% 1,357 59.32% 2,117 2.66% 95 0.00% 0
Meade 44.18% 3,984 53.09% 4,787 2.73% 246 0.00% 0
Menifee 45.32% 959 52.60% 1,113 2.08% 44 0.00% 0
Mercer 42.10% 3,541 56.09% 4,718 1.81% 152 0.00% 0
Metcalfe 38.73% 1,495 58.65% 2,264 2.62% 101 0.00% 0
Monroe 24.76% 837 73.43% 2,482 1.80% 61 0.00% 0
Montgomery 44.59% 3,934 53.78% 4,745 1.63% 144 0.00% 0
Morgan 46.01% 1,726 51.43% 1,929 2.56% 96 0.00% 0
Muhlenberg 46.03% 4,019 52.12% 4,551 1.83% 160 0.02% 2
Nelson 48.51% 7,387 49.32% 7,511 2.17% 331 0.00% 0
Nicholas 49.49% 1,157 48.50% 1,134 2.01% 47 0.00% 0
Ohio 40.29% 2,877 56.57% 4,040 3.14% 224 0.00% 0
Oldham 46.32% 12,115 51.57% 13,488 2.11% 551 0.00% 0
Owen 38.54% 1,419 59.61% 2,195 1.85% 68 0.00% 0
Owsley 29.43% 402 68.23% 932 2.34% 32 0.00% 0
Pendleton 36.27% 1,502 61.51% 2,547 2.22% 92 0.00% 0
Perry 44.51% 3,183 53.90% 3,855 1.59% 114 0.00% 0
Pike 42.93% 7,131 54.25% 9,011 2.81% 466 0.01% 1
Powell 46.33% 1,791 51.66% 1,997 2.02% 78 0.00% 0
Pulaski 27.96% 5,891 70.04% 14,756 1.99% 419 0.00% 1
Robertson 42.15% 325 55.77% 430 2.08% 16 0.00% 0
Rockcastle 27.42% 1,354 70.49% 3,481 2.07% 102 0.02% 1
Rowan 58.47% 4,045 39.66% 2,744 1.86% 129 0.00% 0
Russell 26.50% 1,571 71.73% 4,252 1.77% 105 0.00% 0
Scott 49.10% 9,827 48.61% 9,730 2.29% 458 0.00% 0
Shelby 43.96% 7,380 53.98% 9,062 2.04% 343 0.01% 2
Simpson 46.48% 2,203 51.84% 2,457 1.69% 80 0.00% 0
Spencer 35.59% 2,667 62.24% 4,664 2.15% 161 0.01% 1
Taylor 36.87% 3,093 61.31% 5,143 1.82% 153 0.00% 0
Todd 36.64% 1,037 60.53% 1,713 2.83% 80 0.00% 0
Trigg 35.69% 1,622 62.46% 2,839 1.85% 84 0.00% 0
Trimble 39.06% 1,057 58.39% 1,580 2.55% 69 0.00% 0
Union 41.09% 1,800 56.68% 2,483 2.24% 98 0.00% 0
Warren 50.80% 18,249 47.65% 17,118 1.55% 558 0.00% 0
Washington 41.26% 1,839 56.59% 2,522 2.15% 96 0.00% 0
Wayne 35.76% 1,983 62.61% 3,472 1.62% 90 0.00% 0
Webster 38.77% 1,495 58.90% 2,271 2.33% 90 0.00% 0
Whitley 30.30% 2,995 67.50% 6,672 2.21% 218 0.00% 0
Wolfe 54.50% 1,194 43.72% 958 1.78% 39 0.00% 0
Woodford 53.11% 6,235 44.95% 5,277 1.93% 227 0.00% 0

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by the Andy Beshear campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by the Adam Edelen campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by Democratic Attorney General Association
  4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United

References
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