2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party and Libertarian Party.[1][2] The primary elections were held on May 15.[3] This is the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Tom Wolf Scott Wagner
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate John Fetterman Jeff Bartos
Popular vote 2,895,662 2,039,899
Percentage 57.8% 40.7%
County results
Wolf:      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
Wagner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Tom Wolf
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Elections in Pennsylvania

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates
Nominated
Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent) 741,676 100.0
Total votes 741,676 100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates
Nominated

Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined
  • Erin McClelland, nominee for PA-12 in 2014 and 2016[4] (endorsed Fetterman)

Endorsements
Aryanna Berringer (withdrawn)
Kathi Cozzone
Organizations
  • Chester County Democratic Committee
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Former Elected Officials
Madeleine Dean (withdrawn)
State Representatives
Former Elected Officials
John Fetterman
U.S. Senators
Organizations
  • BCTGM Local 6[18]
  • Cambria County Democrats[19]
  • Steel City Stonewall Democrats[20]
  • United Steelworkers District 10[21]
State Representatives
  • Ed Gainey, State Representative
Politicians

Individuals:

Newspapers:

Mike Stack
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
Other Politicians
Declined to endorse

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Aryanna
Berringer		 Kathi
Cozzone		 Madeleine
Dean		 John
Fetterman		 Craig
Lehman		 Mike
Stack		 Undecided
Independence Communications & Campaigns, LLC February 2–4, 2018 467 ± 4.53% 2% 10% 4% 20% 1% 8% 55%

Primary results
Results by county:
  Fetterman—70–80%
  Fetterman—60–70%
  Fetterman—50–60%
  Fetterman—40–50%
  Fetterman—<40%
  Ahmad—40–50%
  Ahmad—<40%
  Cozzone—60–70%
  Cozzone—<40%
  Stack—<40%
Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Fetterman 288,229 38.0
Democratic Nina Ahmad 182,309 23.8
Democratic Kathi Cozzone 142,410 18.6
Democratic Mike Stack (incumbent) 127,259 16.6
Democratic Ray Sosa 27,427 3.6
Total votes 767,634 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates
Nominated

Eliminated in primary
  • Laura Ellsworth, attorney[46][47]
  • Paul Mango, businessman and former U.S. Army Officer[48]
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements
Laura Ellsworth
Individuals
County Commissioners
  • Dan Camp, Beaver County Commissioner[60]
Newspapers
Paul Mango
U.S. Senators
Individuals
  • Glen Meakem, entrepreneur, and former radio host[68]
County Commissioners
  • Jeff Haste, Dauphin County Commissioner[69]
  • Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County Commissioner[69]
  • Christian Leinbach, Berks County Commissioner[69]
  • Joe Kantz, Snyder County Commissioner[69]
Organizations
Scott Wagner
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
  • Chris Reilly, York County Commissioner[74]
Individuals
Organizations
Mike Turzai (Withdrawn)
State Senators
State Representatives
  • Kathy Rapp, state representative[80]
  • Brian L. Ellis, state representative
  • Jim E. Marshall, state representative
  • R. Lee James, state representative
  • Matt Dowling, state representative
  • Ryan Warner, state representative
County Chairs
  • Martha Breene, Venango County GOP Chair

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Laura
Ellsworth		 Paul
Mango		 Scott
Wagner		 Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research May 4–8, 2018 545 ± 4.2% 18% 23% 37% 1% 22%
ColdSpark Media (R-Ellsworth) May 2018 – – 17% 24% 28% – 30%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 9% 24% 50% – 17%
Revily (R-American Principles Project) March 13–15, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 4% 18% 20% – 57%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) September 18–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% – 16% 45% – 39%
5% 13% 45% – 37%

Results
Results by county:
  Wagner—60–70%
  Wagner—50–60%
  Wagner—40–50%
  Mango—40–50%
  Mango—50–60%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Wagner 324,013 44.3
Republican Paul Mango 270,014 36.9
Republican Laura Ellsworth 137,650 18.8
Total votes 731,677 100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates
Nominated
  • Jeff Bartos, businessman (running with Scott Wagner)[81]

Eliminated in primary
  • Kathy Coder, political activist[82]
  • Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County Commissioner (running with Paul Mango)[83]
  • Peg Luksik, political activist[84]
Removed from ballot
Withdrawn
Considered potential
  • Dave Argall, state senator and nominee for PA-17 in 2010[90]
  • Erin Elmore, attorney, political correspondent and The Apprentice contestant[91]
Declined

Endorsements
Jeff Bartos
  • Pennsylvania GOP[77]

Results
Results by county:
  Bartos—60–70%
  Bartos—50–60%
  Bartos—40–50%
  Bartos—<40%
  Coder—40–50%
  Coder—<40%
  Vaughan—70–80%
  Vaughan—50–60%
  Vaughan—40–50%
  Luksik—50–60%
  Luksik—<40%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Bartos 317,619 46.8
Republican Kathy Coder 147,805 21.8
Republican Diana Irey Vaughan 119,400 17.6
Republican Peg Luksik 93,667 13.8
Total votes 678,491 100.0

Green Party

Governor

Candidates
Nominated

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates
Nominated
  • Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick

Endorsements
Paul Glover

Libertarian Party

Governor

Candidates
Nominated
  • Ken Krawchuk, technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2014[98]

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur (Running with Ken Krawchuk)

General election

Candidates

Debates

Endorsements
Scott Wagner (R)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
  • Chris Reilly, York County Commissioner[74]
Individuals
Organizations
Tom Wolf (D)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[123] Likely D October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[124] Likely D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[125] Safe D November 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[126] Safe D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos Elections[127] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[128][lower-alpha 1] Likely D November 5, 2018
Politico[129] Likely D November 5, 2018
Governing[130] Likely D November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[131] Likely D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[132] Solid D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tom
Wolf (D)		 Scott
Wagner (R)		 Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 1,833 – 53% 42% 3%[133] –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% 1% 6%
Muhlenberg College October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 58% 37% – –
Franklin & Marshall College October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 59% 33% – 5%
537 RV ± 6.0% 57% 27% 6%[134] 10%
Morning Consult October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 48% 36% – 16%
Franklin & Marshall College September 17–23, 2018 204 LV – 52% 30% – 17%
545 RV ± 6.1% 52% 28% 2%[135] 18%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 55% 38% 2% 6%
Muhlenberg College September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 55% 36% 6%[136] 2%
Rasmussen Reports September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 40% 3% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College August 20–26, 2018 222 LV – 52% 35% 1% 12%
511 RV ± 6.1% 51% 32% 5%[137] 14%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 54% 40% <1% 6%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 46% 43% 3% 8%
Suffolk University June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 36% 1% 14%
Franklin & Marshall College June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 48% 29% 1% 23%
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 47% 31% 5% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 137 ± 6.8% 38% 21% 6% 35%

Results
2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election[138]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent) 2,895,652 57.77% +2.84%
Republican Scott Wagner 2,039,882 40.70% -4.37%
Libertarian Ken Krawchuk 49,229 0.98% N/A
Green Paul Glover 27,792 0.55% N/A
Total votes 5,012,555 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Gov. Tom Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st, 10th & 16th districts which elected Republicans.[139]

District Wagner Wolf Representative
1st 40% 59% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 20% 79%
Brendan Boyle
3rd 5% 93% Dwight Evans
4th 32% 66% Madeleine Dean
5th 29% 69% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 37% 61% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 39% 59% Susan Wild
8th 43% 56%
Matt Cartwright
9th 54% 44% Dan Meuser
10th 44% 54% Scott Perry
11th 53% 45% Lloyd Smucker
12th 59% 39% Tom Marino
13th 63% 35% John Joyce
14th 51% 48% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 60% 38% Glenn Thompson
16th 48.8% 49.5% Mike Kelly
17th 39% 59% Conor Lamb
18th 26% 72% Mike Doyle

See also

References
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  107. Ricardo Rosselló. ".@GovernorTomWolf - thank you for strongly responding to Puerto Rico's call for assistance. Your leadership and friendship during our darkest hour and your Vision of progress and equality for the state of Pennsylvania make you the best choice in next Tuesday's election". Twitter.
  108. Dwight Evans. "Standing in support of my governor @WolfforPA in West Philly yesterday. #PAVotesBlue #BlueWave2018". Twitter.
  109. Madeleine Dean [@mad4pa] (November 4, 2018). "Let's Turn PA Blue! Great time rallying for PA Democrats with @WolfForPA, @Bob_Casey, @JohnFetterman, @JoshShapiroPA, @DwightEvansPA, @kenlawrencejr, @VAArk, @ciresiforpa, @kmuthPAsenate44, & @Fields4PASenate. Press button D-11 at the polls to vote Democratic! #Mad4PA #PA4 #PA04" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  110. Leanne Krueger. "There's still time to pick up a canvass shift before tonight's #PAVotesBlue rally with @WolfForPA @Bob_Casey @JohnFetterman! Four elections in four years and our team of volunteers grows every cycle. Grateful! #GOTV #MakeItHapPENN". Twitter.
  111. Tom Wolf. "There was great energy yesterday at the Chester City Rally The Vote event with Mayor Thaddeus Kirkland, @Bob_Casey, @marygayscanlon, and Rep. Brian Kirkland! Let's continue to get out the vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. #PAVotesBlue". Twitter.
  112. Tom Wolf. "Thank you @tomperez for visiting Pennsylvania and standing with us in November!". Twitter.
  113. Michael Rubin. "Get out and vote next week for ONE America/One Pennsylvania!! This is our guy. @WolfForPA". Twitter.
  114. Meek Mill. "VOTE @governortomwolf! We're in the middle of some important times. Your vote is more important than ever!". Twitter.
  115. Tom Wolf. "Thank you @MeekMill, @KevinHart4real, & @MichaelGRubin for standing with me". Twitter.
  116. Tom Wolf. "Thank you @ZacharyQuinto for your support and for coming home to Pittsburgh to canvas!". Twitter.
  117. Laura Gómez. "Inspired by these hard working activists & volunteers advocating for people to vote in PA, and very hopeful for their progressive governor @WolfForPA". Twitter.
  118. Wanda Sykes [@iamwandasykes] (October 22, 2018). "Thank you Governor Wolf. #WontBeErased" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  119. PA Democratic Party. "While the @PAGOP pals around with Trump and his billionaire buddies, @Bob_Casey and @WolfForPA are keeping company of a different kind". Twitter.
  120. Democratic Governors. ".@WolfForPA is proof: electing a Democratic governor is the best way to end Republican gerrymandering and protect fair district maps". Twitter.
  121. Planned Parenthood Action. ".@PPAdvocatesPA is all in to re-elect @WolfforPA! Special shout out to @MsLauraGomez for joining us to #PinkOutTheVote this past weekend". Twitter.
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  129. "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  130. "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  131. "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  132. "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  133. Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%
  134. Ken Krawchuk (L) with 3%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 2%
  135. Ken Krawchuk (L) with 1%, Paul Glover (G) with 0%; other with 1%
  136. Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%, neither/other with 3%
  137. Ken Krawchuk (L) and Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  138. "2018 General Election Official Returns". Pennsylvania Department of State. November 6, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  139. Giroux, Greg [@greggiroux] (February 2, 2019). "Pennsylvania 2018 Governor and U.S. Senate election results by congressional district: pic.twitter.com/NYLoJbUtrm" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
Debates
Official gubernatorial campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
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