Opinion polling on Scottish independence
This page lists public opinion polls that have been conducted in relation to the issue of Scottish independence. A referendum on the subject was held on 18 September 2014.
2014 referendum
Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence before the referendum and then during the campaign.[1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling had shown support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population.[8] This had fallen somewhat since the SNP were first elected to become the Scottish Government in 2007.[8] The research also showed, however, that the proportion of the population strongly opposed to independence had also declined.[8] Curtice stated in April 2014 that support for independence had increased since December 2013, although there was disagreement between the polling companies as to the true state of public opinion.[9] Polls in the run-up to the referendum vote showed a closing of the gap, with one poll giving the Yes campaign a 51–49 lead. In the referendum, on 18 September 2014, Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7%, with an overall turnout of 84.6%.[10][11]
Post-referendum polling
Since the referendum in September 2014, opinion polls have asked how people would vote in a hypothetical second referendum. These polls have been carried out since six weeks after the referendum.[12] Twenty-five opinion polls were conducted in the year after the referendum, with seventeen of them having "No" as the predominant answer, seven having "Yes", and one having an equal proportion of respondents for each opinion.[13] During the period of 18 September 2015 to 18 September 2016 a further twenty-four opinion polls were conducted, of which twenty had "No" as the predominant answer while four had "Yes" as the predominant answer.[14] From 18 September 2016 to 18 September 2017 twenty-six polls were conducted with twenty-five returning "No" as the most popular answer and only one returning "Yes" as the most popular answer.[15]
"No" continued to show a lead in opinion polls until July 2019, when one poll by Lord Ashcroft showed a narrow majority for "Yes".[16] Professor John Curtice said after this poll was released that there had recently been a swing towards "Yes", and that this was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum.[16] This trend continued into January 2020, when three polls put "Yes" support at between 50% and 52% (excluding undecideds).[17]
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Undecided | ||||||||
6–10 Aug 2020 | YouGov/The Times | 1,142 | 45% | 40% | 9% | 5% | ||||
5 Aug 2020 | Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | |||||||||
30 Jun–3 Jul 2020 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,026 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | ||||
15–19 Jun 2020 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,070 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | ||||
1–5 Jun 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,022 | 48% | 45% | 8% | 3% | ||||
1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,086 | 46% | 46% | 7% | Tied | ||||
24–26 Mar 2020 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,023 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | ||||
14 Feb 2020 | Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | |||||||||
7–14 Feb 2020 | YouGov/Hanbury | 2,587 | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% | Excludes 16 and 17 year olds. Non-standard question[notes 1] | |||
31 Jan 2020 | The United Kingdom leaves the European Union | |||||||||
28–31 Jan 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,016 | 49% | 46% | 6% | 3% | ||||
22–27 Jan 2020 | YouGov | 1,039 | 43% | 42% | 10% | 1% | ||||
20–22 Jan 2020 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 1,019 | 45% | 45% | 10% | Tied | ||||
12 Dec 2019 | 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||
10–11 Dec 2019 | Survation/The Courier | 1,012 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | ||||
3–6 Dec 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,020 | 44% | 50% | 6% | 6% | ||||
3–6 Dec 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,008 | 38% | 48% | 12% | 10% | ||||
19–25 Nov 2019 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,046 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | ||||
20–22 Nov 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 7% | 2% | ||||
9–11 Oct 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,003 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | ||||
30 Sep–9 Oct 2019 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,032 | 40% | 51% | 8% | 11% | Non-standard question[notes 2] | |||
12–16 Sep 2019 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,003 | 38% | 55% | 9% | 17% | Non-standard question[notes 3] | |||
30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,059 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | ||||
29 Aug 2019 | Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | |||||||||
30 Jul–2 Aug 2019 | Lord Ashcroft | 1,019 | 46% | 43% | 12% | 3% | Lord Ashcroft is not a BPC member Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
24 Jul 2019 | Boris Johnson becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||||
18–20 Jun 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | ||||
24 May 2019 | Theresa May announces her resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||||
23 May 2019 | 2019 European Parliament election | |||||||||
14–17 May 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | ||||
24–26 Apr 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,029 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | ||||
18–24 Apr 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,018 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
18–23 Apr 2019 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,012 | 36% | 56% | 7% | 20% | Non-standard question[notes 3] | |||
15–21 Mar 2019 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,041 | 35% | 58% | 8% | 23% | Non-standard question[notes 4] | |||
30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,028 | 45% | 51% | 4% | 6% | ||||
9–13 Nov 2018 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,013 | 36% | 55% | 9% | 19% | Non-standard question[notes 3] | |||
2–7 Nov 2018 | Panelbase/Constitutional Commission | 1,050 | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% | ||||
18–21 Oct 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 41% | 51% | 7% | 10% | ||||
3–5 Oct 2018 | Survation/Scottish National Party | 1,013 | 41% | 49% | 8% | 8% | ||||
28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 41% | 52% | 7% | 11% | ||||
28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,036 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | ||||
24–29 Aug 2018 | Deltapoll/OFOC & Best for Britain | 1,022 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | Non-standard question[notes 5] | |||
5–10 Jul 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
8–13 Jun 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | ||||
1–5 Jun 2018 | YouGov/The Times | 1,075 | 41% | 50% | 6% | 9% | ||||
30 May–5 Jun 2018 | YouGov/Future of England | 1,052 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | Non-standard question[notes 6] Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
23–28 Mar 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,037 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | ||||
5–11 Mar 2018 | Ipsos Mori/STV | 1,050 | 46% | 50% | 4% | 4% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
24–28 Jan 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | ||||
12–16 Jan 2018 | YouGov/The Times | 1,002 | 37% | 50% | 10% | 13% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
1–5 Dec 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,006 | 42% | 49% | 8% | 7% | ||||
27–30 Nov 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | ||||
2–5 Oct 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,135 | 39% | 50% | 7% | 11% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
8–12 Sep 2017 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,016 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | ||||
31 Aug–7 Sep 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 40% | 53% | 6% | 13% | ||||
9–13 Jun 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,037 | 39% | 53% | 7% | 14% | ||||
8 Jun 2017 | 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||
6–7 Jun 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 36% | 56% | 7% | 20% | ||||
2–7 Jun 2017 | Panelbase | 1,106 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | ||||
1–5 Jun 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,093 | 38% | 50% | 8% | 12% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
31 May–2 Jun 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,024 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | ||||
22–27 May 2017 | Ipsos Mori/STV | 1,016 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
15–18 May 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,032 | 39% | 49% | 8% | 10% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
4 May 2017 | 2017 Scottish local elections | |||||||||
24–27 Apr 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 40% | 49% | 8% | 9% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
18–21 Apr 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,029 | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% | ||||
18–21 Apr 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,018 | 43% | 48% | 9% | 5% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
7–11 Apr 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,041 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | ||||
29 Mar–11 Apr 2017 | Kantar | 1,060 | 37% | 55% | 8% | 18% | ||||
13–17 Mar 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,008 | 42% | 53% | 5% | 11% | ||||
9–14 Mar 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,028 | 37% | 48% | 11% | 11% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
8–13 Mar 2017 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,019 | 43% | 48% | 9% | 5% | ||||
13 Mar 2017 | Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention to seek approval for a Section 30 order enabling an independence referendum | |||||||||
24 Feb–6 Mar 2017 | Ipsos Mori/STV | 1,029 | 47% | 46% | 6% | 1% | ||||
23–27 Feb 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,009 | 41% | 44% | 15% | 3% | ||||
7–13 Feb 2017 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,028 | 44% | 51% | 6% | 7% | ||||
26–31 Jan 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,067 | 43% | 45% | 10% | 2% | ||||
20–26 Jan 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,020 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | ||||
9–16 Dec 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,002 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | ||||
29 Aug–16 Dec 2016 | YouGov | 3,166 | 39% | 47% | 11% | 8% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
24–29 Nov 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,134 | 38% | 49% | 13% | 11% | ||||
28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,010 | 39% | 47% | 15% | 8% | Non-standard question[notes 7] | |||
9–15 Sep 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | ||||
5–11 Sep 2016 | Ipsos Mori/STV | 1,000 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | ||||
5–10 Sep 2016 | Survation | 1,073 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | ||||
10 Aug–4 Sep 2016 | TNS | 1,047 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | ||||
29–31 Aug 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,039 | 40% | 46% | 13% | 6% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
20–25 Jul 2016 | YouGov | 1,005 | 40% | 45% | 14% | 5% | Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds | |||
13 Jul 2016 | Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||||
24–28 Jun 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | 47% | 41% | 12% | 6% | ||||
25–26 Jun 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 626 | 47% | 44% | 8% | 3% | ||||
25 Jun 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 48% | 41% | 9% | 7% | ||||
24 Jun 2016 | David Cameron announces his resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||||
23 Jun 2016 | EU membership referendum, 2016. | |||||||||
5 May 2016 | 2016 Scottish Parliament election. | |||||||||
2–4 May 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,445 | 41% | 48% | 12% | 7% | ||||
23–28 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,074 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 5% | ||||
15–20 Apr 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,005 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | ||||
6–15 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 45% | 51% | 5% | 6% | ||||
7–11 Apr 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,012 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | ||||
10–17 Mar 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,051 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | ||||
7–9 Mar 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,070 | 40% | 47% | 12% | 7% | ||||
25–29 Feb 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,022 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
11–16 Feb 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,006 | 42% | 48% | 9% | 6% | ||||
1–7 Feb 2016 | Ipsos Mori/STV | 1,000 | 49% | 45% | 5% | 4% | ||||
1–4 Feb 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,022 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | ||||
8–14 Jan 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,053 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | ||||
8–12 Jan 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | ||||
6–13 Nov 2015 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,074 | 47% | 49% | 5% | 2% | ||||
9–13 Oct 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,026 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | ||||
7–10 Sep 2015 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,010 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | ||||
7–10 Sep 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,110 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | ||||
4–10 Sep 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,005 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | ||||
12 Aug–1 Sep 2015 | TNS | 1,023 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | ||||
24–30 Aug 2015 | Ipsos Mori/STV | 1,002 | 53% | 44% | 3% | 9% | ||||
3–7 July 2015 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,084 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | ||||
26 Jun–3 Jul 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,002 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | ||||
19–21 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Post | 1,108 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
7 May 2015 | 2015 United Kingdom general election. | |||||||||
3–6 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,660 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | ||||
29 Apr–1 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,162 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | ||||
22–27 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,015 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | ||||
20–23 Apr 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,044 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | ||||
8–9 Apr 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,056 | 46% | 49% | 6% | 3% | ||||
13–19 Mar 2015 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | ||||
12–17 Mar 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,027 | 45% | 43% | 11% | 2% | ||||
10–12 Mar 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,049 | 45% | 48% | 8% | 3% | ||||
12–17 Feb 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | ||||
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | ||||
9–11 Dec 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | ||||
9–11 Dec 2014 | YouGov/The Sun | 1,081 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | ||||
27 Nov 2014 | Release of Smith Commission report. | |||||||||
19 Nov 2014 | Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland. | |||||||||
6–13 Nov 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
30 Oct–5 Nov 2014 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 982 | 46% | 45% | 8% | 1% | ||||
27–30 Oct 2014 | YouGov/The Times | 1,078 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | ||||
18 September 2014 | 2014 Scottish independence referendum results | 3,623,344 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 10.6% |
Three-option polling
Prior to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, some three option opinion polls were conducted, giving respondents the option of full independence, some (undefined) form of increased devolution and the status quo. One poll of this type has been conducted since the EU membership referendum.
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution Max | Status Quo | Undecided | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24-28 Jan 2018 | Survation/Scottish Independence Referendum Party | 32% | 15% | 36% | 17% | [18] |
Historical polling
Two-way polling
Respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", with the options "I agree that Scotland should become an independent country" and "I do not agree that Scotland should become an independent country". These polls indicated the following levels of support for Scotland to be an independent country each year:[19][20]
Year | Agree | Disagree | Lead |
---|---|---|---|
2009 | 40% | 52% | 12% |
2007 | 39.5% | 45% | 5.5% |
2006 | 51% | 39% | 12% |
2001 | 45% | 49% | 4% |
2000 | 47% | 43% | 4% |
1999 | 43.5% | 46% | 2.5% |
1998 | 52% | 39.5% | 12.5% |
Three-way polling
During the late 1970s and 1980s, MORI conducted opinion polls on whether Scots wanted full independence, devolution or the status quo. During this period, devolution was the preferred option in each opinion poll, although support for independence increased.
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution | Status Quo | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 Apr 1978 | MORI | 20% | 52% | 25% | 4% |
March 1979 | MORI | 14% | 42% | 35% | 9% |
3 May 1979 | 1979 United Kingdom general election | ||||
February 1981 | MORI | 25% | 46% | 30% | 0% |
May 1981 | MORI | 25% | 50% | 25% | 0% |
September 1981 | MORI | 23% | 47% | 31% | 0% |
November 1981 | MORI | 22% | 47% | 26% | 5% |
February 1982 | MORI | 23% | 53% | 19% | 5% |
April 1982 | MORI | 22% | 45% | 27% | 6% |
November 1982 | MORI | 22% | 47% | 26% | 5% |
March 1983 | MORI | 23% | 48% | 26% | 2% |
4 Jun 1983 | MORI | 23% | 51% | 22% | 4% |
9 Jun 1983 | 1983 United Kingdom general election | ||||
29 Feb-1 Mar 1984 | MORI | 25% | 45% | 27% | 3% |
24-25 Feb 1986 | MORI | 33% | 47% | 14% | 6% |
6-7 Mar 1987 | MORI | 32% | 50% | 15% | 3% |
May 1987 | MORI | 29% | 41% | 25% | 5% |
11 Jun 1987 | 1987 United Kingdom general election | ||||
April 1988 | MORI | 35% | 42% | 20% | 3% |
Four-way polling
Between 1988 and 1995, MORI polled voters on independence giving four opinions: independence inside the European Economic Community (European Union after 1992), independence outside the organisation, devolution and the status quo.
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Independence outside the EEC | Independence inside the EEC | Devolution | Status Quo | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-3 Dec 1988 | MORI | 10% | 24% | 46% | 16% | 4% |
25-28 Feb 1989 | MORI | 11% | 24% | 42% | 20% | 3% |
1-2 Jun 1989 | MORI | 12% | 22% | 49% | 15% | 2% |
11-13 Sep 1989 | MORI | 9% | 27% | 44% | 18% | 2% |
22-28 Feb 1990 | MORI | 10% | 24% | 44% | 19% | 3% |
15-20 May 1990 | MORI | 8% | 29% | 45% | 16% | 2% |
14-18 Jun 1990 | MORI | 10% | 28% | 43% | 17% | 2% |
19-22 Jul 1990 | MORI | 10% | 27% | 44% | 16% | 3% |
16-20 Aug 1990 | MORI | 7% | 31% | 44% | 16% | 2% |
19-23 Sep 1990 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 44% | 17% | 2% |
18-22 Oct 1990 | MORI | 9% | 30% | 44% | 15% | 2% |
15-18 Nov 1990 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 45% | 17% | 1% |
29 Nov 1990 | Margaret Thatcher resigns as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||
5-10 Dec 1990 | MORI | 7% | 25% | 49% | 17% | 2% |
17-20 Jan 1991 | MORI | 7% | 28% | 42% | 21% | 2% |
21-24 Feb 1991 | MORI | 10% | 23% | 45% | 20% | 2% |
21-24 Mar 1991 | MORI | 8% | 27% | 42% | 21% | 2% |
7-25 Mar 1991 | MORI | 9% | 23% | 51% | 16% | 1% |
18-20 Apr 1991 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 42% | 19% | 2% |
23-27 May 1991 | MORI | 7% | 26% | 45% | 19% | 3% |
20-24 Jun 1991 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 47% | 17% | 2% |
18-22 Jul 1991 | MORI | 8% | 28% | 43% | 18% | 3% |
22-26 Aug 1991 | MORI | 9% | 26% | 47% | 17% | 1% |
19-23 Sep 1991 | MORI | 9% | 26% | 45% | 17% | 3% |
17-21 Oct 1991 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 46% | 15% | 2% |
21-25 Nov 1991 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 47% | 16% | 3% |
12-16 Dec 1991 | MORI | 9% | 31% | 40% | 17% | 3% |
16-20 Jan 1992 | MORI | 9% | 31% | 42% | 15% | 3% |
20-24 Feb 1992 | MORI | 7% | 29% | 37% | 23% | - |
12 Mar 1992 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 42% | 20% | - |
19 Mar 1992 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 42% | 23% | - |
26 Mar 1992 | MORI | 7% | 27% | 44% | 20% | - |
2 Apr 1992 | MORI | 6% | 22% | 45% | 23% | - |
9 Apr 1992 | 1992 United Kingdom general election | |||||
23-27 Apr 1992 | MORI | 5% | 22% | 47% | 25% | 1% |
21-25 May 1992 | MORI | 5% | 23% | 48% | 21% | 3% |
18-22 Jun 1992 | MORI | 5% | 29% | 40% | 23% | 3% |
23-27 Jul 1992 | MORI | 7% | 28% | 41% | 21% | 3% |
21 Apr-8 May 1995 | MORI | 9% | 20% | 52% | 17% | 2% |
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.
Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
- Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
- Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
- Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
- Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
- Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.
A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".
Year | Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution | No Parliament |
---|---|---|---|---|
1999 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 27% | 59% | 10% |
2000 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 30% | 55% | 12% |
2001 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 27% | 59% | 9% |
2002 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 30% | 52% | 13% |
2003 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 26% | 56% | 13% |
2004 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 32% | 45% | 17% |
2005 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 35% | 44% | 14% |
2006 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 30% | 54% | 14% |
2007 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 24% | 62% | 9% |
2009 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 28% | 56% | 8% |
2010 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 23% | 61% | 10% |
2011 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 32% | 58% | 6% |
2012 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 23% | 61% | 11% |
2013 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 29% | 55% | 9% |
2014 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 33% | 50% | 7% |
2015 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 39% | 49% | 6% |
2016 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 46% | 42% | 8% |
2017 | Scottish Social Attitudes Survey | 45% | 41% | 8% |
Within the rest of the United Kingdom
British Social Attitudes Survey
The British Social Attitudes Survey has asked voters in England how Scotland should be governed, since the 1997 British Election Study. It has always found a plurality in favour of devolution, with majorities in favour between 1997 and 2003 and again in 2017. Since 2011, when the Scottish National Party won a majority in the Scottish Parliament, there has always been one in five people in England in favour of Scottish independence.
Year | Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution | No Parliament |
---|---|---|---|---|
1997 | British Election Study | 14% | 55% | 23% |
1999 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 21% | 57% | 14% |
2000 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 52% | 17% |
2001 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 60% | 11% |
2002 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 52% | 15% |
2003 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 17% | 58% | 13% |
2007 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 48% | 18% |
2011 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 26% | 44% | 19% |
2012 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 25% | 43% | 23% |
2013 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 20% | 49% | 18% |
2015 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 23% | 49% | 20% |
2017 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 22% | 55% | 15% |
Notes
- Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
- Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK’ and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming independent’ what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 1 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?, how would you vote?" and given the options of "Remain" and "Leave", which have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively.
- Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming independent’ and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK’ what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 1 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
- Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
- Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held tomorrow, on whether Scotland should leave or remain part of the United Kingdom, how would you vote?" and given the options of "To Leave the United Kingdom" and "To Remain in the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
References
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