Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election
In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. Following the passage of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020, the election will be for the newly named Senedd and will be the first Welsh election which includes 16 and 17 year olds in the electoral franchise. Furthermore, since January 2020 most opinion polls have also included this data set to reflect the enfranchisement in the next election.[1]
Under the Wales Act 2017 it is scheduled to take place on 6 May 2021.[2]
Graphical summary
The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.
Graph of the evolution of the opinion polls for the 2021 Welsh Parliament election (the right border represents the last possible day for the election to be held). Lines represent local regressions (LOESS) with a span of 0.5.
Constituency vote
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 40 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.
Graphical summary
The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the Senedd election.
Poll results
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client(s) | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru |
UKIP | Lib Dem | Green | AWAP | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,021 | 34% | 31% | 22% | – | 5% | 3% | – | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 22–31 May 2020 | Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 1,051 | 40% | 26% | 18% | – | 7% | – | – | 8% | 2% | 14% |
| 4–7 Apr 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,008 | 31% | 38% | 19% | – | 4% | 3% | – | 4% | 0% | 7% |
| 4–22 Feb 2020 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,000 | 31% | 31% | 26% | 2% | 6% | 2% | – | 2% | 1% | Tie |
| 20–26 Jan 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,037 | 33% | 35% | 19% | 0% | 5% | 3% | – | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 6–9 Dec 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,020 | 33% | 31% | 18% | 0% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 0% | 2% |
| 25–28 Nov 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,116 | 32% | 26% | 20% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 11% | 0% | 6% |
| 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,136 | 27% | 24% | 21% | 0% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 14% | 0% | 3% |
| 10–14 Oct 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,032 | 25% | 23% | 22% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 15% | 0% | 2% |
| 23–26 Jul 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,071 | 21% | 19% | 24% | – | 12% | 4% | — | 19% | 2% | 3% |
| 16–20 May 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,009 | 25% | 17% | 24% | 1% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 17% | 0% | 1% |
| 2–5 Apr 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 31% | 23% | 24% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 7% |
| 7–23 Feb 2019 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,000 | 34% | 23% | 27% | 5% | 7% | 2% | – | – | 2% | 7% |
| 19–22 Feb 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 32% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 1% | – | 2% | 6% |
| 7–14 Dec 2018 | Sky Data | Cardiff University | 1,014 | 42% | 26% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 16% |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4] | |||||||||||||
| 4–7 Dec 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,024 | 40% | 25% | 20% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | 15% |
| 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,031 | 38% | 28% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 10% |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,031 | 38% | 28% | 21% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 10% |
| 12–15 Mar 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,015 | 39% | 28% | 22% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | – | 0% | 11% |
| 8–25 Feb 2018 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,001 | 40% | 22% | 24% | 5% | 6% | 1% | – | – | 2% | 16% |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| 21–24 Nov 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,016 | 43% | 26% | 19% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | – | 1% | 17% |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| 4–7 Sep 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,011 | 43% | 25% | 19% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 0% | 18% |
| 29–31 May 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,014 | 42% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 1% | – | 0% | 16% |
| 18–21 May 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 40% | 27% | 20% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 0% | – | 1% | 13% |
| 5–7 May 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,018 | 33% | 33% | 20% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 1% | – | 1% | Tie |
| 19–21 Apr 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,029 | 29% | 30% | 22% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 1% |
| 3–6 Jan 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,034 | 31% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | 6% |
| 18–21 Sep 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,001 | 34% | 24% | 20% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | 10% |
| 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,010 | 32% | 19% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 0% | 9% |
| 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,017 | 34% | 18% | 23% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | 11% |
| 2016 election | – | 34.7% | 21.2% | 20.5% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 2.5% | – | – | 1.0% | 13.6% | ||
Regional vote
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 20 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.
Graphical summary
The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next Senedd election.
Poll results
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client(s) | Sample size |
Lab | Plaid Cymru |
Con | UKIP | Lib Dem | AWAP | Green | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,021 | 32% | 24% | 28% | – | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% |
| 22–31 May 2020 | Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 1,051 | 36% | 22% | 23% | – | 7% | – | – | 10% | 2% | 13% |
| 4–7 Apr 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,008 | 29% | 18% | 37% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 8% |
| 4–22 Feb 2020 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,000 | 31% | 25% | 29% | 2% | 5% | – | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 20–26 Jan 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,037 | 32% | 19% | 32% | 0% | 5% | 3% | – | 3% | 5% | Tied |
| 6–9 Dec 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,020 | 32% | 19% | 28% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 4% |
| 25–28 Nov 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,116 | 29% | 21% | 26% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 0% | 3% |
| 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,136 | 23% | 21% | 23% | 1% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 13% | 1% | Tied |
| 10–14 Oct 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,032 | 23% | 21% | 22% | 1% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 14% | 0% | 1% |
| 23–26 Jul 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,071 | 19% | 23% | 18% | – | 12% | — | 4% | 17% | 7% | 4% |
| 16–20 May 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,009 | 21% | 22% | 12% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 23% | 1% | 1% |
| 2–5 Apr 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 28% | 22% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 2%[lower-alpha 1] | 6% |
| 7–23 Feb 2019 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,000 | 32% | 25% | 22% | 6% | 6% | – | 3% | – | 6% | 7% |
| 19–22 Feb 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 29% | 23% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 4% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 2] | 5% |
| 7–14 Dec 2018 | Sky Data | Cardiff University | 1,014 | 39% | 22% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 2% | – | 1% | 16% |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4] | |||||||||||||
| 4–7 Dec 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,024 | 36% | 20% | 24% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 3] | 12% |
| 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,031 | 37% | 18% | 26% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 4% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 1] | 11% |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,031 | 37% | 22% | 25% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | – | 1%[lower-alpha 1] | 12% |
| 12–15 Mar 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,015 | 36% | 21% | 27% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | – | 1%[lower-alpha 1] | 9% |
| 8–25 Feb 2018 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,001 | 36% | 22% | 21% | 8% | 6% | – | 2% | – | 3% | 14% |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| 21–24 Nov 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,016 | 38% | 18% | 27% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 4] | 11% |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| 4–7 Sep 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,011 | 40% | 19% | 23% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 17% |
| 29–31 May 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,014 | 38% | 17% | 27% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 2% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 6] | 11% |
| 18–21 May 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 37% | 19% | 26% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | – | 1% | 11% |
| 5–7 May 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,018 | 31% | 20% | 32% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 3% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 6] | 1% |
| 19–21 Apr 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,029 | 27% | 20% | 28% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 5% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 1] | 1% |
| 3–6 Jan 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,034 | 28% | 20% | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | – | 1% | 6% |
| 18–21 Sep 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,001 | 29% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 3% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 7] | 7% |
| 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,010 | 29% | 24% | 18% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 4% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 8] | 5% |
| 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,017 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 4% | – | 0% | 11% |
| 5 May 2016 | 2016 election | – | 31.5% | 20.8% | 18.8% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | – | 2.1% | 10.6% | |
Seat projections
Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his blog, known as Elections in Wales.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client(s)/Publisher(s) | Sample size |
Lab | Plaid Cymru |
Con | UKIP | Lib Dem | Green | AWAP | Brexit Party |
Other | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,021 | 25 | 15 | 19 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 6 short |
| 22–31 May 2020 | Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 1,051 | 29 | 12 | 13 | – | 1 | – | – | 5 | – | 2 short |
| 4–7 Apr 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,008 | 23 | 10 | 26 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 5 short |
| 4–22 Feb 2020 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,000 | 21 | 18 | 20 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 10 short |
| 20–26 Jan 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,037 | 24 | 13 | 22 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 7 short |
| 6–9 Dec 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,020 | 25 | 11 | 19 | – | 1 | – | – | 4 | – | 6 short |
| 25–28 Nov 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,116 | 25 | 12 | 17 | – | 1 | – | – | 5 | – | 6 short |
| 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,136 | 18 | 15 | 18 | – | 2 | – | – | 7 | – | Tied |
| 10–14 Oct 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,032 | 18 | 13 | 14 | – | 6 | – | – | 9 | – | 13 short |
| 23–26 Jul 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,071 | 17 | 15 | 11 | – | 7 | – | – | 10 | – | 14 short |
| 16–20 May 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,009 | 20 | 13 | 7 | – | 2 | 5 | – | 13 | – | 11 short |
| 2–5 Apr 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 23 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1 | – | – | 4 | – | 8 short |
| 7–23 Feb 2019 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,000 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 6 short |
| 19–22 Feb 2019 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,025 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 8 short |
| 7–14 Dec 2018 | Sky Data | Cardiff University | 1,014 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 1 | – | 2 | – | – | 2 short |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4] | |||||||||||||
| 4–7 Dec 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,024 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short |
| 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,031 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,031 | 28 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 3 short |
| 12–15 Mar 2018 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,015 | 28 | 13 | 17 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 3 short |
| 8–25 Feb 2018 | ICM | BBC Wales | 1,001 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 short |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| 21–24 Nov 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,016 | 30 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 short |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| 4–7 Sep 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,011 | 31 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| 19–21 Apr 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,029 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 5 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 10 short |
| 3–6 Jan 2017 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,034 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 9 short |
| 18–21 Sep 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,001 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 5 short |
| 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,010 | 25 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 6 short |
| 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 1,017 | 27 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 4 short |
| 5 May 2016 | 2016 election | – | 29 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short | |
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See also
- Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election in Wales
- Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the next Northern Ireland Assembly election
- Opinion polling for the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election
Notes
- Including the Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- Including the Socialist Labour Party and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- Including the BNP and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- Including the Communist Party of Britain with 1%
- Including the BNP with 1%
- Including the Socialist Labour Party with 1%
- Including the Welsh Christian Party, BNP and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
- Including the Welsh Christian Party and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
References
- "Bill to introduce new name and lower voting age becomes an Act".
- "Wales Act 2017" (PDF). Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- "Plaid Cymru leadership contest: Adam Price wins". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- "Paul Davies wins Welsh Tory assembly group leadership poll". BBC News. 6 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- "UKIP Wales members elect Gareth Bennett as assembly leader". BBC News. 10 August 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- "Jack Sargeant wins Alyn and Deeside by-election". BBC News. 7 February 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
External links
- Roger Scully's Elections in Wales – Etholiadau yng Nghymru
- Britain Elects Senedd voting intention archive (2015–present)
- Results of the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election
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