Bristol North West (UK Parliament constituency)

Bristol North West is a constituency[n 1] to the north and north-west of Bristol city centre.[n 2]

Bristol North West
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Boundary of Bristol North West in Avon for the 2010 general election
Location of Avon within England
CountyBristol
Population100,809 (2011 UK Census)[1]
Electorate72,211 (2018)[2]
Major settlementsAvonmouth, Sea Mills, Shirehampton
Current constituency
Created1950
Member of ParliamentDarren Jones (Labour)
Number of membersOne
Created fromBristol West and Thornbury

Save for two elections in 1974, and one in 1964, when the seat leant to the right, bucking the national result, the affiliation of the winning candidate was that of the winning party nationally for the years 1959–2015, making it a bellwether.

Constituency profile and history

Party positions altered completely in 2010 with the Liberal Democrat candidate, Paul Harrod achieving second place with a slightly larger one party swing, of 11.4%, than winning candidate Charlotte Leslie and saw a fresh Labour Party candidate suffer a large decrease in percentage of the Labour vote of 20.8%.[n 3] This changed in 2015 with the Conservatives winning the seat with an increased majority of 9.5%, and Labour moving back into second place. In the snap 2017 general election, the seat was lost to the Labour party on a swing of 9%.[3]

The 2017 win was a surprise to the successful Labour candidate Darren Jones. He attributes his win to three factors: Corbyn and a good Labour manifesto, the youth vote, and Europe (the constituency had voted 61% remain).[4]

Boundaries

1950–1955: The County Borough of Bristol wards of Avon, Durdham, Horfield, and Westbury-on-Trym.

1955–1983: The County Borough of Bristol wards of Avon, Henbury, Horfield, Southmead, and Westbury-on-Trym.

1983–1997: The City of Bristol wards of Avonmouth, Henbury, Horfield, Kingsweston, Lockleaze, Southmead, and Westbury-on-Trym, and the District of Northavon wards of Filton Charborough, Filton Conygre, Filton Northville, Stoke Gifford North, and Stoke Gifford South.

1997–2010: The City of Bristol wards of Avonmouth, Henbury, Horfield, Kingsweston, Lockleaze, and Southmead, and the District of Northavon wards of Filton Charborough, Filton Conygre, Filton Northville, Patchway Callicroft, Patchway Coniston, Patchway Stoke Lodge, Stoke Gifford North, and Stoke Gifford South.

2010–present: The City of Bristol wards of Avonmouth, Henbury, Henleaze, Horfield, Kingsweston, Lockleaze, Southmead, Stoke Bishop, and Westbury-on-Trym.

The constituency boundary extends into the Severn Estuary and includes the uninhabited islands of Flat Holm and Steep Holm.[5]

Following the review by the Boundary Commission for England into parliamentary representation in the former county of Avon Somerset and Gloucestershire the constituency had boundary changes at the 2010 general election.[6] In particular, the constituency is now wholly contained within the City of Bristol: the areas of Filton, Patchway, Stoke Gifford, Bradley Stoke and Aztec West which are in the South Gloucestershire district were transferred to a new Filton and Bradley Stoke constituency. At the same time, the areas of Stoke Bishop, Henleaze and Westbury-on-Trym were gained from Bristol West.

Members of Parliament
ElectionMember[7] Party
1950 Gurney Braithwaite Conservative
1955 Christopher Boyd Labour
1959 Martin McLaren Conservative
1966 John Ellis Labour
1970 Martin McLaren Conservative
Oct 1974 Ronald Thomas Labour
1979 Michael Colvin Conservative
1983 Michael Stern Conservative
1997 Doug Naysmith Labour
2010 Charlotte Leslie Conservative
2017 Darren Jones Labour

Elections

Elections in the 2010s
General election 2019: Bristol North West[8]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Darren Jones 27,330 48.9 -1.7
Conservative Mark Weston 21,638 38.7 -3.1
Liberal Democrats Chris Coleman 4,940 8.8 +3.6
Green Heather Mack 1,977 3.5 +1.2
Majority 5,692 10.2 +1.3
Turnout 55,885 73.3 +1.6
Labour hold Swing +0.7
General election 2017: Bristol North West [9][10][11][12]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Darren Jones 27,400 50.7 +16.2
Conservative Charlotte Leslie 22,639 41.8 -2.1
Liberal Democrats Celia Downie 2,814 5.2 -1.0
Green Sharmila Bousa (withdrawn) 1,243 2.3 -3.4
Majority 4,761 8.9 N/A
Turnout 54,096 71.7 +4.1
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +9.2
General election 2015: Bristol North West[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Charlotte Leslie 22,767 43.9 +6.0
Labour Darren Jones 17,823 34.4 +8.5
UKIP Michael Frost 4,889 9.4 +7.1
Liberal Democrats Clare Campion-Smith 3,214 6.2 -25.3
Green Justin Quinnell 2,952 5.7 +4.7
TUSC Anne Lemon 160 0.3 N/A
Majority 4,944 9.5 +3.0
Turnout 51,805 67.6 -0.9
Conservative hold Swing -1.3
General election 2010: Bristol North West[14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Charlotte Leslie 19,115 38.0 +5.5
Liberal Democrats Paul Harrod 15,841 31.5 +6.6
Labour Sam Townend 13,059 25.9 −12.2
UKIP Robert Upton 1,175 2.3 +0.7
English Democrat Ray Carr 635 1.3 −0.4
Green Alex Dunn 511 1.0 +1.0
Majority 3,274 6.5 N/A
Turnout 50,336 68.5 −0.3
Conservative gain from Labour Swing 15.45[n 4]

Elections in the 2000s
General election 2005: Bristol North West[15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Co-op Doug Naysmith 22,192 46.7 −5.4
Conservative Alastair Watson 13,230 27.9 −0.8
Liberal Democrats Bob Hoyle 9,545 20.1 +4.2
UKIP Christopher Lees 1,132 2.4 −0.1
English Democrat Michael Blundell 828 1.7 N/A
Socialist Alternative Graeme Jones 565 1.2 N/A
Majority 8,962 18.8 -4.5
Turnout 47,492 61.1 +0.7
Labour Co-op hold Swing −2.3
General election 2001: Bristol North West[16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Co-op Doug Naysmith 24,236 52.1 +2.2
Conservative Charles Hansard 13,349 28.7 −0.6
Liberal Democrats Peter Tyzack 7,387 15.9 +2.7
UKIP Diane Carr 1,140 2.5 N/A
Socialist Labour Vince Horrigan 371 0.8 -0.1
Majority 10,887 23.4 +2.8
Turnout 46,483 60.4 −15.1
Labour Co-op hold Swing +1.4

Elections in the 1990s
General election 1997: Bristol North West[17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Co-op Doug Naysmith 27,575 49.9 +7.6
Conservative Michael Stern 16,193 29.3 −13.0
Liberal Democrats Ian Parry 7,263 13.2 −1.0
Independent Labour Charles Horton 1,718 3.1 N/A
Referendum John Quintanillia 1,609 2.9 N/A
Socialist Labour Giles Shorter 482 0.9 N/A
BNP Stephen Parnell 265 0.5 N/A
Natural Law Thomas Leighton 140 0.3 N/A
Majority 11,382 20.6 N/A
Turnout 55,245 73.7
Labour Co-op gain from Conservative Swing 10.3
General election 1992: Bristol North West[18][19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Stern 25,354 42.3 −4.3
Labour Co-op Doug Naysmith 25,309 42.3 +7.7
Liberal Democrats John D. Taylor 8,498 14.2 −4.6
Independent Ind SD Hilary S. Long 729 1.2 N/A
Majority 45 0.1 −11.9
Turnout 59,890 82.3 +2.9
Conservative hold Swing −6.0

Elections in the 1980s
General election 1987: Bristol North West[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Stern 26,953 46.6
Labour Terence Walker 20,001 34.6
SDP John Kirkcaldy 10,885 18.8
Majority 6,952 12.0
Turnout 79.4
Conservative hold Swing +2.7[n 5]
General election 1983: Bristol North West[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Stern 24,617 43.9
Labour Co-op Sarah R. Palmer 18,290 32.6
SDP Hilary S. Long 13,228 23.6
Majority 6,327 11.3
Turnout 76.9
Conservative hold Swing -8.65[n 6]

Elections in the 1970s
General election 1979: Bristol North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Colvin 25,915 48.6 +7.7
Labour Ronald Thomas 21,238 39.8 -2.3
Liberal G.A. Davis 5,857 11.0 -6.0
National Front P.M. Kingston 264 0.5 +0.5
Campaign for a More Prosperous Britain T.L. Keen 73 0.1 +0.1
Majority 4,677 8.8 N/A
Turnout 81.3 +2.0
Conservative gain from Labour Swing 5.0
General election October 1974: Bristol North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Ronald Thomas 22,156 42.1 +3.5
Conservative Martin McLaren 21,523 40.9 +1.1
Liberal E. David 8,914 17.0 -3.9
Majority 633 1.2 N/A
Turnout 79.3
Labour gain from Conservative Swing 2.3
General election February 1974: Bristol North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Martin McLaren 21,569 39.8 -7.8
Labour Ronald Thomas 20,919 38.6 -6.9
Liberal E. David 11,312 20.9 +14.4
Independent T.E. Wetherall 440 0.8 +0.8
Majority 650 1.2
Turnout 82.5
Conservative hold Swing -0.9
General election 1970: Bristol North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Martin McLaren 24,124 47.6 -1.1
Labour John Ellis 23,075 45.5 -4.6
Liberal H.J. Stevens 3,299 6.5 +6.5
Communist W.E. Williams 227 0.5 -.7
Majority 1,049 2.1 N/A
Turnout 78.0
Conservative gain from Labour Swing 1.75

Elections in the 1960s
General election 1966: Bristol North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour John Ellis 24,195 50.1 +7.2
Conservative Martin McLaren 23,526 48.7 +3.6
Communist B. Underwood 595 1.2 +1.2
Majority 669 1.4 N/A
Turnout 82.0
Labour gain from Conservative Swing 1.8[n 7]
General election 1964: Bristol North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Martin McLaren 22,129 45.1 -6.9
Labour David Watkins 21,030 42.9 -5.1
Liberal T.G. Douglas 5,883 12.0 +12.0
Majority 1,099 2.2
Turnout 83.1
Conservative hold Swing -0.9

Elections in the 1950s
General election 1959: Bristol North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Martin McLaren 24,938 52.0 +3.9
Labour Christopher Boyd 23,019 48.0 -3.9
Majority 1,919 4.0 N/A
Turnout 82.9
Conservative gain from Labour Swing 3.9
General election 1955: Bristol North West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Christopher Boyd 22,950 51.9 +5.5
Conservative Gurney Braithwaite 21,295 48.1 -5.5
Majority 1,655 3.8 N/A
Turnout 79.1
Labour gain from Conservative Swing 5.5
General election 1951: Bristol North West[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Gurney Braithwaite 28,394 53.6 +5.9
Labour Claud Morris 24,553 46.4 +3.7
Majority 3,841 7.2
Turnout 86.1
Conservative hold Swing 2.2[n 8]
General election 1950: Bristol North West[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Gurney Braithwaite 23,884 47.7 N/A
Labour Claud Morris 21,394 42.7 N/A
Liberal Florence Pugh 4,784 9.6 N/A
Majority 2,490 5.0 N/A
Turnout 85.1 N/A
Conservative win (new seat)
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gollark: It's not a trade-off which anyone is actually *forced* to make.
gollark: Which they *could* have done in a sane, open-source way, like GNU/Linux is somehow able to.
gollark: Separation of concerns is good, but it's *bad* that they're separating it into "now lacking in use open source components" and "proprietary spying Play Services code".
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See also

Notes
  1. A borough constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
  2. As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.
  3. This was one of the largest negative one-party swings for a Labour candidate nationally in 2010.
  4. Labour to Conservative: for Others to Conservative the swing was 10.1%
  5. Others to Conservative; Labour to Conservative swing was 0.7%
  6. Conservative to Liberal/SDP. Labour to Conservative: 2.5%
  7. 4.6% swing Others to Labour
  8. Others to Conservative swing: 5.9%

References
  1. "Bristol North West: Usual Resident Population, 2011". Neighbourhood Statistics. Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 3 February 2015.
  2. "England Parliamentary electorates 2010-2018". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  3. "Bristol North West - 2017 Result". BBC News. Retrieved 12 June 2017.
  4. Topping, Alexandra (30 June 2017). "Bristol North West: the bellwether seat where 'the Tories didn't turn up'". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077 – via The Guardian.
  5. "Election Maps - Ordnance Survey". www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/. Retrieved 26 March 2019.
  6. "Parliamentary Constituencies in Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, and South Gloucestershire" (PDF). Boundary Commission for England. 20 June 2001. Archived from the original (PDF) on 21 February 2010. Retrieved 1 October 2010.
  7. "Bristol North West 1950-". Hansard 1803–2005. UK Parliament. Retrieved 2 February 2015.
  8. "Bristol North West Parliamentary election: BBC News".
  9. Ashcroft, Esme (18 April 2017). "Bristol's four MPs will all be defending their seats in the general election". Bristol Post.
  10. "Green MEP to stand for Bristol West in general election".
  11. "General Election candidates revealed – News – Bristol 24/7". 11 May 2017.
  12. "BBC Election Results". 9 June 2017. Retrieved 9 June 2017.
  13. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  14. "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  15. "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  16. "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  17. "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  18. "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  19. "Politics Resources". Election 1992. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Archived from the original on 24 July 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
  20. "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  21. "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  22. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1951.
  23. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1950.

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