Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (UK Parliament constituency)

Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock is a county constituency represented in the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. It was created for the 2005 general election from parts of the old Ayr and Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituencies. It has been represented since 2019 by Allan Dorans of the Scottish National Party.

Not to be confused with Ayr (UK Parliament constituency) or Ayr (Scottish Parliament constituency).

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
County constituency for the House of Commons
Boundary of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock in Scotland for the 2005 general election
Subdivisions of Scotland	East Ayrshire, South Ayrshire
Population	93,308 (2011 census)
Electorate	69,299 (2015)
Major settlements	Ayr, Girvan, Maybole, New Cumnock
Current constituency
Created	2005
Member of Parliament	Allan Dorans (SNP)
Created from	Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley
Overlaps
Scottish Parliament	Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley, South Scotland

Boundaries

2005 onwards

As defined by the Fifth Review of UK Parliament constituencies, the constituency covers the South Ayrshire electoral wards of Ayr Whitletts; Ayr Lochside; Ayr Newton; Ayr Craigie; Ayr Central; Ayr Fort; Ayr Forehill; Ayr Masonhill; Ayr Belmont; Ayr Old Belmont; Ayr Rozelle; Ayr Doonfoot and Seafield; Coylton and Minishant; North Carrick and Maybole West; North Carrick and Maybole East; South Carrick; Girvan Ailsa and Girvan Glendoune plus the East Ayrshire electoral wards of Patna and Dalrymple; Dalmellington; Drongan, Stair and Rankinston; Ochiltree, Skares, Netherthird and Craigens; New Cumnock; Cumnock East and Cumnock West.

The constituency covers approximately three-fifths of the South Ayrshire council area and one-fifth of the East Ayrshire council area, with the remaining portion of the South Ayrshire council area being covered by the Central Ayrshire constituency. The remainder of East Ayrshire is covered as part of Kilmarnock and Loudoun.

Constituency profile

Chart of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock elections since the 2005 general election.

2017 declaration

Demographics

The 2011 UK Census revealed that the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency had an above-average unemployment rate at 5.6% compared to the Scottish average of 4.8%, with a significant proportion of residents living in local authority housing at 20.2% compared to the Scottish average of 13.2%. The constituency also had a high proportion of retired people and Church of Scotland Protestants at the Census relative to elsewhere in Scotland, with 19% of those living in the constituency retired (14.9% across Scotland) and 43.3% of constituents recognising their religion as Church of Scotland (32.4% across Scotland). 90% of residents identified their ethnicity as White British, with 99% recognising their ethnicity as White.[1] On indicators such as health, educational attainment, income and social class however the area is a mainly affluent area as a whole.

Constituency

Ayr is a large coastal resort town located to the north-west of the constituency, consisting of a mixture of council estates and very affluent areas. The town has traditionally been the strongest part of the constituency for the Conservative Party with them winning most elections in the town area, With the SNP, performing well towards the more industrialised area north of the town and the Conservatives performing stronger in the suburbs in the south of the town like Alloway.

To the south-west of the constituency is the rural region of Carrick, running down the Ayrshire coast between Ayr and Galloway which includes many towns and villages such as Maybole, Turnberry and Girvan. This area has traditionally been more hospitable to the SNP in recent years, in comparison to Ayr, with the Conservatives performing better in rural areas. To the north of Carrick, the village of Coylton has returned a strong vote for Conservative candidates in previous elections.

Further east, the constituency stretches into the south of the East Ayrshire Council area to cover a set of former mining communities around Cumnock and Doon Valley - Its an area which has traditionally returned a much stronger vote for the SNP and weaker Conservative vote in comparison to elsewhere in the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency.[2][3][4][5]

Voting patterns

UK Parliament

In 2005, approximately two-thirds of the former Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency was attached to half of the former marginal seat of Ayr to form the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency. Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley had been represented in the UK Parliament by the Labour Party since the 1935 general election, whilst Ayr was represented by the Conservative Party from the 1906 general election until Labour gained the seat during their 1997 landslide electoral victory, from which point onwards the constituency was represented by Labour, with the Conservatives coming in a close second place.

The newly formed Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency was won by Labour's Sandra Osborne at the 2005 general election with a majority of 9,997 votes (22.2%) ahead of the Conservatives. This was reduced slightly to 9,911 votes (21.6%) in 2010, before the constituency fell to the SNP at the 2015 SNP landslide, with SNP candidate Corri Wilson overturning incumbent Labour MP Sandra Osborne's 13,356 vote lead over the SNP (29.1%), securing the constituency with a majority of 11,265 votes (21.6%). Bill Grant of the Conservatives gained the seat at the 2017 snap general election with a majority of 2,774 votes (6.0%) over Corri Wilson of the SNP. In the 2019 General Election, Allan Dorans of the SNP gained the seat from the Conservatives to take the seat again for a second time

Scottish Parliament

The constituency overlaps the Scottish Parliamentary constituencies of Ayr and Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. Ayr has been represented by Conservative MSP John Scott since a by-election in 2000. Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley has been represented by the SNP since the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election. The current MSP for Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley is Jeane Freeman.

Local Council elections

The Conservatives have been the largest party on South Ayrshire Council since 2003, taking control of the Council in 2006. The Ayr West ward has traditionally been the strongest part of the Council for the Conservative party, with Ayr East also returning a considerable Conservative vote. More recently, the party have also gained votes in the more rural area of Carrick to the south of Ayr, with the SNP forming the largest party in the Ayr North ward.

The SNP have formed the largest party on East Ayrshire Council since 2012, however, Labour remain the largest party in Cumnock and Doon Valley, the part of East Ayrshire covered by the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock parliamentary constituency.

Members of Parliament

Name		In office		Party
	Sandra Osborne	1 May 1997	30 March 2015	Labour
	Corri Wilson	8 May 2015	3 May 2017	Scottish National Party
	Bill Grant	4 May 2017	7 November 2019	Conservative
	Allan Dorans	12 December 2019		Scottish National Party

Election results

South Ayrshire electoral history

Elections in the 2010s

2019 general election: Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock[6][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	SNP	Allan Dorans	20,272	43.5	+9.4
	Conservative	Martin Dowey	17,943	38.5	-1.6
	Labour	Duncan Townson	6,219	13.3	-10.6
	Liberal Democrats	Helena Bongard	2,158	4.6	+2.7
Majority			2,329	5.0	N/A
Turnout			46,592	64.7	-0.2
	SNP gain from Conservative		Swing	+5.5

2017 general election: Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock[8]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Bill Grant	18,550	40.1	+20.3
	SNP	Corri Wilson	15,776	34.1	-14.7
	Labour	Carol Mochan	11,024	23.9	-3.4
	Liberal Democrats	Callum Leslie	872	1.9	+0.3
Majority			2,774	6.0	N/A
Turnout			46,296	64.9	-6.6
	Conservative gain from SNP		Swing	+17.5

2015 general election: Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock[9][10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	SNP	Corri Wilson	25,492	48.8	+30.8
	Labour	Sandra Osborne	14,227	27.3	−19.8
	Conservative	Lee Lyons	10,355	19.8	−5.7
	UKIP	Joseph Adam-Smith[11]	1,280	2.5	New
	Liberal Democrats	Richard Brodie	855	1.6	−7.7
Majority			11,265	21.5	N/A
Turnout			52,209	71.5	+8.9
	SNP gain from Labour		Swing	+25.4

2010 general election: Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Sandra Osborne	21,632	47.1	+1.7
	Conservative	Bill Grant	11,721	25.5	+2.3
	SNP	Chic Brodie	8,276	18.0	+4.8
	Liberal Democrats	James Taylor	4,264	9.3	−4.8
Majority			9,911	21.6	-0.6
Turnout			45,893	62.6	+1.3
	Labour hold		Swing	−0.3

Elections in the 2000s

2005 general election: Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock[13][14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Sandra Osborne	20,433	45.4	-5.9
	Conservative	Mark Jones	10,436	23.2	-1.6
	Liberal Democrats	Colin Waugh	6,341	14.1	+6.9
	SNP	Chic Brodie	5,932	13.2	-0.5
	Scottish Senior Citizens	Donald Sharp	592	1.3	N/A
	Scottish Socialist	Murray Steele	554	1.2	-1.2
	Socialist Labour	James McDaid	395	0.9	+0.3
	UKIP	Bryan McCormack	365	0.8	+0.7
Majority			9,997	22.2	N/A
Turnout			45,048	61.3	N/A
	Labour win (new seat)

References

1. 'Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock'
2. 'Scottish Council Elections 2003'
3. 'South Ayrshire Council Election 2017 results'
4. 'East Ayrshire Scottish Local Government Elections 2017 results'
5. "'Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2016'". Archived from the original on 2 May 2018. Retrieved 27 July 2017.
6. "UK Parliamentary Elections". South Ayrshire Council. South Ayrshire Council. Retrieved 14 November 2019.
7. "Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock parliamentary constituency - Election 2019". Retrieved 13 December 2019.
9. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
10. http://www.south-ayrshire.gov.uk/documents/ayr%20carrick%20cumnock%20results.pdf
11. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ayrcarrickandcumnock/
12. "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
13. "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
14. "Election 2005". BBC. Retrieved 28 December 2016.