2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

The 2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, which took place on February 9, was the second major vote of the cycle. Donald Trump was declared the winner with 35.3% of the popular vote and picked up 11 delegates, while John Kasich emerged from a pack of candidates between 10-20% to capture second place with 15.8% of the vote and picked up four delegates.[1]

2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary
February 9, 2016 (2016-02-09)
 
Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich Ted Cruz
Home state New York Ohio Texas
Delegate count 11 4 3
Popular vote 100,735 44,932 33,244
Percentage 35.23% 15.72% 11.63%
 
Candidate Jeb Bush Marco Rubio Chris Christie
Home state Florida Florida New Jersey
Delegate count 3 2 0
Popular vote 31,341 30,071 21,089
Percentage 10.96% 10.52% 7.38%
New Hampshire results by county
  Donald Trump
Elections in New Hampshire

It occurred on the same day as the Democratic primary.

Campaign

Politico described the 2016 Republican primary in New Hampshire as a "topsy-turvy" campaign that saw "an all-out assault" on "establishment" politics.[2]

Donald Trump dominated the polling results,[3] with Chris Christie, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush vying to place second and emerge as the leading mainstream alternative to Trump and to Ted Cruz.[4] In November Chris Christie gained the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader.[5] Candidates receiving the endorsement later received a boost of on average 8 points in the polls, but the endorsed candidate only won a Republican primary in half of the elections from 1980 to 2012.[6] But in late January the Boston Globe and the Concord Monitor endorsed Kasich, leading Politico to dub him the winner of the "newspaper primary."[2]

Major debates and forums

Two major televised gatherings of major candidates took place during the 2015-16 campaign, both took place at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics of Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire.

August 3, 2015 – Voters First Presidential Forum

The 2016 Voters First Presidential Forum was moderated by Jack Heath of WGIR radio, who asked questions of each of the participating candidates based on a random draw.[7] Candidates each had three opportunities to speak: two rounds of questions, and a closing statement.[8] Topics of discussion during the forum were partially selected based on the results of an online voter survey.[9] The facilities were provided by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics and Political Library of St. Anselm College. The forum was organized in response[10] to the top-ten invitation limitations placed by Fox News and CNN on their first televised debates (see descriptions below).

Eleven of the candidates participated: Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio participated in the forum via satellite to avoid missing a vote.[11] Three major Republican candidates who did not participate were Donald Trump (who chose not to attend),[7] Jim Gilmore (who missed the cutoff deadline)[7] and Mike Huckabee (who was invited, but did not respond).[7] Mark Everson did not receive an invitation, albeit after a "serious look."[12][13]

The Voters First forum was broadcast nationally[14] by C-SPAN[15] as the originating source media entity, beginning at 6:30 p.m. EDT and lasting from 7 to 9 p.m. The event was also simulcast and/or co-sponsored by television stations KCRG-TV in Iowa, New England Cable News in the northeast, WBIN-TV in New Hampshire,[16] WLTX-TV in South Carolina, radio stations New Hampshire Public Radio, WGIR in New Hampshire, iHeartRadio on the internet (C-SPAN is also offering an online version of the broadcast), and newspapers the Cedar Rapids Gazette in Iowa, the Union Leader in New Hampshire, and the Post and Courier in Charleston South Carolina.[7] There was a live audience, with tickets to the event awarded via a lottery.[10]

Lesser known candidates forum at Goffstown

One of the highlights of the campaign is when the nonrecognized candidates gather together to introduce themselves to the public at this event, which first was held in 1972.[17] Five candidates participated. They were Stephen Comley, Tim Cook, Walter Iwachiw, Andy Martin, and Joe Robinson.

February 6, 2016 – Goffstown, New Hampshire
CandidateAirtime[18]Polls[19]
Trump15:3233.2%
Cruz17:3420.7%
Rubio18:1413.3%
Carson8:467.8%
Bush12:304.5%
Christie12:533.0%
Kasich10:332.8%

The eighth debate was held in New Hampshire, the first state to hold primaries, was organized by ABC News and the Independent Journal Review. It was scheduled to be held in the St Anselm's College Institute of Politics.[20] The eighth debate did not feature an undercard event.[21] David Muir and Martha Raddatz were moderaters, along with WMUR political director Josh McElveen and Mary Katherine Ham.[22]

To participate in the debate, a candidate must either have placed among the top 3 candidates in the popular vote of the Iowa caucus, or placed among the top 6 candidates in an average of New Hampshire or national polls recognized by ABC News. Only polls conducted no earlier than January 1 and released by February 4 were included in the averages.[23]

On February 4, 2016, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump were invited to the debate.[24] Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore were not invited as they did not meet the criteria.[25]

The debate was notable for Rubio's poor performance, where he repeated the same phrase four times, including once while Christie was criticizing him for making "canned" remarks.[26][27]

Candidates

Twenty-six total candidates were on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary.[28] The following notable candidates were listed in five major polls and participated in authorized debates. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and former Governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and George Pataki of New York withdrew from the race, but remained on the ballot.

The following were listed in national polls and participated in at least one nationally televised debate.

Candidate Résumé Portrait popular vote percentage Delegates won
Donald TrumpCEO of The Trump Organization (campaign)100,406 [1]35.3%[1]11
John KasichGovernor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative from Ohio 1983–2001; presidential candidate in 2000 (campaign)[29][30]44,909[1]15.8%[1]4
Ted CruzU.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008 (campaign)[31]33,189[1]11.7%[1]3
Jeb BushGovernor of Florida 1999–2007; Florida Secretary of Commerce 1987–1988 (campaign)[32][33]31,310[1]11%[1]3
Marco RubioU.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; Florida Speaker of the House 2007–2008 (campaign)[34][35][36]30,032[1]10.6%[1]2
Chris ChristieGovernor of New Jersey since 2010, U.S. Attorney from the district of New Jersey (campaign)[37][38]21,069[1]7.4%[1]none
Carly Fiorinaformer Hewlett-Packard CEO 1999–2005; nominee for Senate in California in 2010 (campaign)[39][40]11,706[1]4.1%[1]none
Ben Carsonauthor and former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at the Johns Hopkins Hospital 1984–2013 (campaign)[41][42][43]6,509[1]2.3%[1]none
Jim Gilmorepresidential candidate in 2008, Governor of Virginia 1998–2002 (campaign)[44][45]133[46]0.05%[46]none

The following were listed in national polls and participated in at least one nationally televised debate, but withdrew their candidacies before the New Hampshire primary.

Candidate Résumé Portrait popular vote percentage Delegates won
Lindsey GrahamU.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003 (campaign)[47][48]70[46]0%none (withdrew from the race earlier)
Mike HuckabeeGovernor of Arkansas 1996–2007; presidential candidate in 2008 (campaign)[49][50]215[46]0%none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)
Bobby JindalGovernor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008 (campaign)[51][52]64[46]0%none (withdrew from race earlier)
George PatakiGovernor of New York 1995–2006 (campaign)[53][54]80[46]0%none (withdrew from race earlier)
Rand PaulU.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011 and Ophthalmologist (campaign)[55][56][57]1,900[46]0.67%none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)[58]
Rick SantorumU.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995–2007; U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania 1991–1995; presidential candidate in 2012 (campaign)[59][60]155[46]0%none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)

The following candidates have not been listed in major independent polls nor participated in Republican party sanctioned debates:

  • Stephen B. Comley, Sr., Massachusetts (31 votes)
  • Tim Cook, North Carolina (77 votes)
  • Brooks A. Cullison, Illinois (54 votes)
  • Matt Drozd, Pennsylvania (5 votes)
  • J. Daniel Dyas, Sr., Alabama (14 votes)
  • Kevin Glenn Huey, Colorado (7 votes)
  • Walter N. Iwachiw, New York (9 votes)
  • Frank Lynch, Florida (47 votes)
  • Robert L. Mann, Indiana (5 votes)
  • Andy Martin, New Hampshire (169 votes)
  • Peter Messina (5 votes)
  • Stephen John McCarthy, Ohio (12 votes)
  • Chomi Prag, Wisconsin (14 votes)
  • Joe Robinson, Massachusetts (44 votes)
  • Richard P.H. Witz, Massachusetts (105 votes)[46]
New Hampshire Republican primary, February 9, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 100,735 35.23% 11 0 11
John Kasich 44,932 15.72% 4 0 4
Ted Cruz 33,244 11.63% 3 0 3
Jeb Bush 31,341 10.96% 3 0 3
Marco Rubio 30,071 10.52% 2 0 2
Chris Christie 21,089 7.38% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina 11,774 4.12% 0 0 0
Ben Carson 6,527 2.28% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 1,930 0.68% 0 0 0
Write-ins 2,912 1.02% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 216 0.08% 0 0 0
Andy Martin 202 0.07% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 160 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore 134 0.05% 0 0 0
Richard Witz 104 0.04% 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 79 0.03% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 73 0.03% 0 0 0
Brooks Andrews Cullison 56 0.02% 0 0 0
Timothy Cook 55 0.02% 0 0 0
Bobby Jindal (withdrawn) 53 0.02% 0 0 0
Frank Lynch 47 0.02% 0 0 0
Joe Robinson 44 0.02% 0 0 0
Stephen Bradley Comley 32 0.01% 0 0 0
Chomi Prag 16 0.01% 0 0 0
Jacob Daniel Dyas 15 0.01% 0 0 0
Stephen John McCarthy 12 0% 0 0 0
Walter Iwachiw 9 0% 0 0 0
Kevin Glenn Huey 8 0% 0 0 0
Matt Drozd 6 0% 0 0 0
Robert Lawrence Mann 5 0% 0 0 0
Peter Messina 5 0% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 285,916 100.00% 23 0 23
Source: The Green Papers

NOTE: Of the 25 candidate/hopefuls, five candidates garnered delegates.

Polling
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primary in New Hampshire

Analysis

According to exit polls, Trump was able to win over all genders, income levels, and age groups, but his particular strength was among gun-owners, voters worried about the economy and immigration, and voters who described themselves as "dissatisfied" or "angry" at the federal government, a norm within the electorate in a state with a rebellious nature.[61] He also won white voters; the electorate was 96% white. An overwhelming majority of voters supported Trump's proposed Muslim ban.

While a plurality of the 53% of voters with a college degree backed Trump, he managed a 42-13 routing over Cruz among voters without a college degree. Trump swept all voters' family financial situations, but showed considerable strength among those who are "holding steady" or "falling behind." He won 37-15 over Cruz among the 47% of voters who felt betrayed by Republican politicians, and a 62-10 landslide among those 50% of voters who wanted a candidate from outside the political establishment. In terms of party affiliation, Trump won a 33% plurality of registered Republicans, and a 39% plurality of undeclared/independent voters.

Trump won along the seacoast 32-17 over Kasich, in the Manchester/Nashua area 33-16, in Concord 32-20, in Southern New Hampshire 40-13, and in Northern New Hampshire 36-17. Mr. Trump swept rural, urban and suburban areas of the state.[62]

The New York Times described Mr. Trump's commanding victory in the Granite State as a "harness [of] working-class fury" and noted Mr. Trump amassed the largest margin of victory in a New Hampshire Republican primary since 2000. In his victory speech, Mr. Trump promised, "I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created," and that he will "knock the hell out of ISIS."[63]

Following the primary, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore, who had all invested heavily in New Hampshire but picked up no delegates, suspended their campaigns following a poor showing. Christie endorsed Trump following the primary, while Fiorina endorsed Ted Cruz.

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See also

References
Notes
    Citations
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    2. Gass, Nick (26 January 2016). "Kasich wins the New Hampshire newspaper primary". Politico. Retrieved 26 January 2016.
    3. Rappeport, Alan (26 January 2016). "Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump Far Ahead in New Hampshire, Poll Finds". New York Times. Retrieved 26 January 2016.
    4. Stokols, Eli (27 December 2015). "The GOP's New Hampshire nightmare". Politico. Retrieved 26 January 2016.
    5. "For our safety, our future: Chris Christie for President". New Hampshire Union Leader. November 28, 2015.
    6. Enten, Harry (30 November 2015). "Will The New Hampshire Union Leader's Endorsement Help Chris Christie?". Fivethirtyeight. Retrieved 11 February 2016.
    7. Paul Feely (August 1, 2015). "Voters First Forum levels the playing field". New Hampshire Union-Leader. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
    8. Brian Stelter (August 3, 2015). "Republican forum begins Monday without Donald Trump". CNNMoney.
    9. "Voters First Forum Topics". On Monday, August 3, candidates ... will be broadcast live on C-SPAN at 7 p.m. Topics for the forum will be determined by you, the voters. Please choose the top five topics you would like to see discussed. ...from these [five] identical drop-down lists: Iran nuclear deal, Homeland Security (Terrorism), Defense, International Trade, Immigration, Russia, Climate change, Crime, Drugs/heroin, Death penalty, Euthanasia, U.S. debt/deficit, Taxes, Economy and jobs, Campaign spending Reform, Social Security, Medicare, Healthcare/Obamacare, Gay marriage, Religious freedom, Privacy/surveillance, Education/Common Core, Abortion, 1st Amendment, 2nd Amendment, Race.
    10. "Trump tells Union Leader: No endorsement, no show". New Hampshire Union Leader. July 29, 2015.
    11. "Senate roll vote on Planned Parenthood". Associated Press. August 3, 2015. Retrieved September 24, 2015.
    12. Jon Ward, Senior Political Correspondent (July 29, 2015). "New Hampshire thumbs its nose at Fox News over presidential debates". The Union Leader considered allowing Mark Everson, the commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service from 2003 to 2007, to take part. Everson announced his candidacy in March. "We had discussions with Mark Everson about whether or not he would qualify. We didn't want to do what Fox did, which was cut the field arbitrarily," Spiner said. "We took a serious look to see if we were missing something here, and we decided we weren't."
    13. Ben Jacobs. "Who is Mark Everson? Why, he's the 18th Republican candidate, of course". the Guardian.
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