United States presidential straw polls in Guam

Following is a table of United States presidential straw polls in Guam. Because it is a U.S. territory instead of a U.S. state, voters in Guam are ineligible to elect members of the Electoral College, who would then in turn cast direct electoral votes for president and for vice president. The territory nonetheless conducts a non-binding straw poll on the day of the presidential general election to gauge the preference for president every election year.[1]

Presidential elections in Guam
No. of elections10
Voted Democratic5
Voted Republican5
Voted for winning candidate9
Voted for losing candidate1

The poll has been held in Guam during every presidential election since 1980.[1] It was established after the Legislature of Guam passed Public Law 15-49, which requires the Guam Election Commission to conduct the poll. The law also instructs the Chairman of the Board of the Guam Election Commission to essentially conduct a meeting of electors like those in the states and act as the territory's sole elector, including formally casting an electoral college ballot for the presidential ticket receiving the highest number of votes in the territory, and then officially sending the result to the U.S. Congress.[2]

Because Guam is 15 hours ahead of the contiguous United States, the poll is regarded as an indicator of how the rest of the country will vote.[3] The territory is home to three U.S. military bases and current and former service members, and has historically had a higher voter turnout than the mainland.[4] In every election between 1984 and 2012, the outcome of the poll had aligned with the results of the mainland.[1] However it failed to predict the outcome of the 2016 election, as Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump in the straw poll but lost the overall election on the mainland.[3]

Results

Winners of the territory are in bold.

Year Winner (nationally) Votes Percent Loser (nationally) Votes Percent
2016[3]Donald Trump[lower-alpha 1]7,77924.17Hillary Clinton23,05271.62
2012[1][2]Barack Obama22,68872.51Mitt Romney8,25226.37
2008[2][3]Barack ObamaN/A57.3John McCainN/A34
2004[2][3]George W. BushN/A64John KerryN/A35.1
2000[2]George W. Bush[lower-alpha 1]N/AN/AAl GoreN/AN/A
1996[2]Bill ClintonN/AN/ABob DoleN/AN/A
1992[2]Bill ClintonN/AN/AGeorge H. W. BushN/AN/A
1988[2]George H. W. BushN/AN/AMichael DukakisN/AN/A
1984[2]Ronald ReaganN/AN/AWalter MondaleN/AN/A
1980[2]Ronald ReaganN/AN/AJimmy CarterN/AN/A

Notes
  1. Won the electoral college while losing the popular vote
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References
  1. "Guam's Straw Poll Picks Obama, Overwhelmingly". National Public Radio. November 6, 2012.
  2. "2012 Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission. July 5, 2013. p. 39. Retrieved May 27, 2020.
  3. "Guam, which has historically predicted election winner, picks Clinton". USA Today. November 8, 2016.
  4. "Guam's voters tend to predict the presidency — but they have no say in the Electoral College". PRI.org. November 8, 2016.
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