Energy in Turkey

Turkey consumes over 6 exajoules of primary energy per year,[2] over 20 megawatt hours (MW/h) per person. 88% of energy is fossil fuels[3] and energy policy includes reducing fossil fuel imports, which were over 20% of import costs in 2019[4] and three quarters of the current account deficit.[5] Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey are about 6 tons/person year,[6] which is more than the global average.[7]

Primary energy supply in Turkey[1]
Economy of Turkey
Economic history of Turkey
 Turkey portal
Wind farm in Turkey

Since 1990 annual primary energy consumption has almost tripled to 1700 TW/h[note 1] in 2016; including 31% oil, 28% gas and 27% coal;[8] and CO2 emissions from fuel combustion have risen from 130 megatonnes (Mt) to 340 Mt.[9]

Although Turkey produces its own lignite (brown coal), the Sankey diagram of Turkey's energy balance shows that half the country's coal and almost all other fossil fuel is imported, and that renewables contribute little.[10] Three-quarters of energy is imported:[11] Turkey's energy policy prioritises reducing imports, but has been criticised by the OECD for lacking carbon pricing,[12] subsidizing fossil fuels[13] and not taking more advantage of the country's abundant wind and sunshine.[14]

The diagram of final consumption shows that most oil products are used for road transport and that homes and industry consume energy in various forms.[10] Electricity is generated mainly from coal, gas (about a third each) and hydro (about a quarter) with a small but growing amount from other renewables such as wind and solar.[15] A nuclear power plant is under construction.

Energy policy is to secure national energy supply[16] and reduce imports,[17] as in the 2010s fossil fuel costs were[18] a large part of Turkey's import bill.[19] This includes using energy efficiently. However, as of 2019, little research has been done on the policies Turkey uses to reduce energy poverty, which also include some subsidies for home heating and electricity use.[11] The energy strategy includes "within the context of sustainable development, giving due consideration to environmental concerns all along the energy chain".[17] Turkey's energy strategy plan has been criticized for being published over a year after it started,[20] not looking much beyond 2023,[21] not sufficiently involving the private sector,[22] and for being inconsistent with Turkey's climate policy.[23]

Policy
See also: Electricity sector in Turkey § Policy and regulation

Security of supply
See also: Economy of Turkey § Energy security
More renewable energy would reduce fossil fuel imports to Turkey

Turkey meets a quarter of its energy demand from national resources.[24] In 2019 the country was almost 40% fossil fuel energy dependant on Russia,[25] 99% of natural gas is imported and 93% of petroleum.[26] In the 2010s fossil fuel imports were probably the biggest structural vulnerability of the country's economy:[19] they cost $41 billion in 2019, about a fifth of the total import bill,[27] and were a large part of the 2018 current account deficit[28] and debt problems.

To secure energy supply the government built new gas pipelines,[19] and diversified energy sources, for example gas supplies from Azerbaijan are expected to compete strongly with those from Russia in 2020.[29] As of 2020 there is a surplus of electricity generation capacity,[30] however the government aims at meeting the forecast increase in demand for electricity in Turkey by building the first nuclear power plant in Turkey and more solar, wind, hydro and coal-fired power plants.[31] As an oil and gas importer Turkey can increase security of supply by increasing the proportion of renewable electricity.[24] The International Energy Agency has suggested that Turkey implement a carbon market.[32] In the long term a carbon tax would reduce import dependency by speeding development of national solar and wind energy.[33]

Because government in Turkey is very centralised energy policy is a national policy. However at certain times of year the east generates excess electricity as it has most hydroelectricity in Turkey, but far less industry and population than the west. This was part of the cause of the nationwide blackout in 2015 and therefore policy includes improving electricity transmission.[34] As well as natural gas storage and regasification plants,[35] the government supports pumped-storage hydroelectricity.[36]

Energy efficiency

Despite the Energy Efficiency Law and target to reduce energy intensity by at least 20 percent between 2011 and 2023; between 2005 and 2015 Turkey's energy intensity increased by 7 percent.[32] According to one study if energy policy was changed, most importantly to remove fossil fuel subsidies, at least 20% of energy could be saved in 2020.[37] Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez said in 2019 that improvement of public buildings should take the lead and that efficiency improvements are an important source of jobs.[38]

Fossil fuel subsidies and taxes

In the 21st century fossil fuel subsidies are around 0.2% of GDP,[39] including US$1.6 billion annually between 2015 and 2017.[40] The energy minister Fatih Dönmez supports coal[41][42] and most energy subsidies are to coal,[43] which has been strongly criticised by the OECD.[44] Capacity mechanism payments to coal-fired power stations in Turkey in 2019 totalled 720 million lira and to gas-fired power stations in Turkey 542 million lira.[45] As of 2018 the tax per unit energy on gasoline was higher than diesel,[46] despite diesel cars on average emitting more lung damaging NOx.[47] The price of residential gas and electricity is set by the government.[48]

Natural gas oligopoly

The purpose of the capacity market for electricity is claimed to be to secure supply: however despite almost all natural gas being imported some gas-fired power plants received capacity payments in 2019 whereas some non-fossil firm power such as demand response could not.[49] State-owned BOTAŞ controls 80% of the natural gas market and thus the price,[50] and due to the many sources of supply in the region and increasing liquefied natural gas imports[51][52] wholesale prices in USD are forecast to remain stable or decrease in the long-term.[53][54] In April 2020 the cost of every 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas imported from Russia was 228 USD whereas LNG was less than half of that.[55] However the wholesale gas market is not as competitive as in the EU, as Turkey does not want to split up BOTAŞ or give other power companies in Turkey fair use of BOTAŞ’ pipelines, so has not joined ENTSO-G.[32] Turkey's long-term contracts with all its current suppliers –Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran– are due to expire in the 2020s.[19] Exploration for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean is subsidized[56][43] and is a cause of geopolitical tension due to the Cyprus dispute.[57]

Coal subsidies
Free coal is distributed to the poor by the Ministry of Family and Social Policy.[5]

Coal in Turkey is heavily subsidized.[58] As of 2019 the government aims to keep the share of coal in the energy portfolio at around the same level in the medium to long term.[59] The place of coal in the government's energy policy was detailed in 2019 by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), Turkey's lobbying organisation.[60] Despite protests against coal power plants[61] Afşin-Elibistan C is being constructed by Turkey's state owned generator and Emba Hunutlu with Chinese finance.[62] Even in cities where natural gas is available the government supports poor households with free coal.[5]

Economics
See also: Electricity sector in Turkey § Economics and finance
Renewable energy increases industrial production in Turkey
Renewable energy increases employment in Turkey

As of 2018 for residential consumers ”high cost is the most important problem of Turkey’s energy system”.[63] Europe supports energy efficiency and renewable energy via the 1 billion euro Mid-size Sustainable Energy Financing Facility (MidSEFF).[32] Up to 150kWh per month free electricity is provided to 2 million poor families.[64] Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency said in 2019 that, because of its falling price, the focus should be on maximizing onshore wind power in Turkey.[65] The economics of coal power have been modelled[66] by Carbon Tracker and they calculate that by 2020, both new wind and solar power were cheaper than building new coal power plants; and they forecast that wind will become cheaper than existing coal plants in 2027, and solar in 2023.[67] Most energy deals in 2019 were for renewables and over half the investment was from outside the country.[68]

Import substitution

In 2017, a tenth of Turkey's electricity was generated by renewables, which reduced gas import costs. But being mainly hydroelectricity, this percentage is vulnerable to drought. According to Hülya Saygılı, an economist at Turkey's central bank, although imports of solar and wind power components accounted for 12 percent of import costs in 2017, in EU countries this is largely due to one-time setup costs. She said that compared with Italy and Greece, Turkey has not invested enough in solar and wind power.[69]

Potential employment co-benefits of a climate change policy

Increasing the share of renewable energy could make the country more energy independent and increase employment[70] especially in Turkey's solar PV and solar heating industries.[71]

Politics

Without subsidies new and some existing coal power would be unprofitable, and it is claimed that path dependence, political influence, and distorted markets are what is keeping it going.[72] Although the coal industry and the government are said to have a close relationship, economic downturn and the falling cost of wind and solar may increase pressure on coal subsidies.[73] Future import of gas from Northern Iraq may depend on relationships with the KRG, the central government of Iraq and Rosneft.[74] Hydroelectric plants, especially new ones, are sometimes controversial in local, international and environmental politics.[75] The EU might be able to persuade Turkey to cooperate on climate change by supporting policies that reduce the country's external energy dependency in a sustainable manner.[32]

State energy companies include: Eti Mine, Turkish Coal Enterprises, Turkish Hard Coal Enterprises, the Electricity Generation Company, BOTAŞ and TEİAŞ - the electricity trading and transmission company.[76] The government holds a quarter of total installed electricity supply and often offers prices below market levels.[77]

Energy transition
See also: Nuclear energy in Turkey and Renewable energy in Turkey

Nuclear safety regulations and human resources could be improved[78] by cooperation with Euratom.[32] In 2018 a new regulator was set up and $0.15 per kWh of generated electricity will be set aside for waste management.[79]

A plan for solar power in Turkey beyond 2023 is needed[80] and amending regulations on rooftop solar panels has been suggested to simplify installation on existing buildings and mandate for new buildings.[81]

In an attempt to reduce fossil fuel imports local production of electric cars and establishing solar cell factories is supported.[82]

Health and environment
Main articles: Air pollution in Turkey, Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey, and Climate change in Turkey

Retrofitting equipment for pollution control such as flue-gas desulfurization, at old lignite-fuelled plants such as Soma,[83] might not be financially possible, as they use outdated technology.[84] Data on SO2, NOx and particulate air pollution from each large plant is collected by government[85] but not published.

The energy policy aim of reducing imports (e.g. of gas) conflicts with the climate change policy aim of reducing emission of greenhouse gases as some local resources (e.g. lignite) emit a lot of CO
2. According to Ümit Şahin, who teaches climate change at Sabancı University, Turkey must abandon fossil fuel completely and switch to 100% renewable energy by 2050.[86]

Energy sources

Coal
This section is an excerpt from Coal in Turkey[edit]
Government-owned Turkish Coal Operations Authority mine in Yeniköy, Milas

Coal supplies over a quarter of Turkey's primary energy.[87] The heavily subsidised coal industry generates over a third of the country's electricity[88] and emits a third of Turkey's greenhouse gases. Every year, thousands of people die prematurely from coal-related causes, the most common of which is local air pollution.

Most coal mined in Turkey is lignite (brown coal), which is more polluting than other types of coal.[89] Turkey's energy policy encourages mining lignite for coal-fired power stations in order to reduce gas imports;[88] and coal supplies over 40% of domestic energy production.[90] Mining peaked in 2018, at over 100 million tonnes,[91] and declined considerably in 2019.[92] In contrast to local lignite production, Turkey imports almost all of the bituminous coal it uses. The largest coalfield in Turkey is Elbistan.[93]

Gas

Annual gas demand is about 50bcm,[94] over 30% of Turkey’s total energy demand, and a third of which was supplied by Russia in 2019.[19][95] As of 2019 storage capacity was 3.44 bcm and daily transmission capacity 318 mcm.[96] All 81 provinces in Turkey are supplied with natural gas,[97] which supplies most of the heat.[98] All industrial and commercial consumers and households buying over 75 thousand cubic-meters a year can switch suppliers.[5]

Gas from Russia comes via the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines (the other Russian pipeline via Ukraine is expected to stop supplying Turkey soon). Iran, the second biggest supplier, is connected via the Tabriz–Ankara pipeline.[99] Azerbaijan supplies Turkey through the South Caucasus Pipeline (which they claimed in 2018 was the cheapest that Turkey buys[100]): its gas flows onward through the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline supplying Turkey and some continues across the Greek border into the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. Iraq may also supply gas in future, through the Southern Gas Corridor[101] and gas from the Eastern Mediterranean is also a possibility.[19]

About a quarter of the country's gas is imported as LNG,[102] which together with storage is important for meeting the winter demand peak.[19] Storage was 7.5% of annual demand in 2018 but being increased and a spot exchange was started in 2018.[5]

As of 2019 only a small proportion of gas imports are re-exported to the EU. However Turkey aims to become a gas trading hub[103] and re-export more.[94] 91 mt of CO2 were emitted by burning natural gas in 2015,[104] however subsidies to gas-fired power stations are being reduced in 2019 and 2020, so older less efficient plants may reduce generation.[105]

In the mid-2020 pipeline gas from Russia was estimated to cost about $6/million British Thermal Units, whereas LNG was half that price.[106] Long-term contracts with Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan will expire in the 2020s allowing Turkey to negotiate lower prices.[107] Private companies are not allowed to make new pipeline gas contracts with countries that have contracts with state owned BOTAŞ.[5] Although private companies can contract for LNG[5] they cannot buy at as low a price as BOTAŞ.[106] As it has 80% of the market[108] BOTAŞ can and does subsidize residential and industrial customers.[5]

State-owned gas-fired power plants are less efficient than private sector ones but can outcompete them because the state guarantees a price for their electricity.[5] The distribution companies are testing mixing hydrogen up to 20% and aim that by the end of 2021 that 6% of the gas distributed will be green hydrogen.[109]

Oil

Almost all oil is imported: mostly from Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan[110][111] and oil also transits from Azerbaijan.[112] As most oil is used for transport it is hoped that electrifying land transport will reduce the import bill. Electric buses[113] and hybrid cars are manufactured locally,[114] and Turkey's automotive industry plans to make a national electric car from 2022.[115]

Nuclear
Main article: Nuclear energy in Turkey

Turkey has no operational nuclear reactors, but it is building a nuclear power plant at Akkuyu, with expected operation in 2023. The nuclear power debate has a long history, with the 2018 construction start at Akkuyu being the sixth major attempt to build a nuclear power plant since 1960.[116]

Renewable energy
Main article: Renewable energy in Turkey

Hydroelectricity in Turkey is the largest renewable source of electricity and in 2018 was 9% of primary energy with other renewables at 6%.[117]

Geothermal power in Turkey is used mainly for heating. By massively increasing production of Turkey's solar power in the south and Turkey's wind power in the west the country's entire energy demand could be met from renewable sources.[118]

Electricity
Main article: Electricity sector in Turkey

308.5 billion kWh of electricity was generated in Turkey in 2019,[119] which is almost a fifth of the amount of primary energy in Turkey. As the electricity sector in Turkey burns a lot of local and imported coal the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey is the country's coal-fired power stations, many of which are subsidized. In the 2010s imports of gas, mostly for power stations in Turkey, was one of the main import costs for the economy of Turkey. However solar power in Turkey and wind power in Turkey are being increased and balanced by the country's existing hydropower. Shura Energy Center has made many recommendations about electric vehicles.[120]

Conservation storage and transmission

According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey has the potential to cut 15 to 20 percent of total consumption through energy conservation.[121]

With the increase in electricity generated by solar panels storage may become more important. A pumped hydropower plant is planned to be completed by 2022.[122] Testing in Ankara suggested a payback time between 18 months and 3 years for adding ice thermal storage to hypermarket cooling systems.[123] Turkey could generate 20% of its total electricity from wind and solar by 2026 without extra transmission system costs.[124]

History
See also: Coal in Turkey § History

During the late 20th and early 21st centuries the country was very exposed to oil and gas price volatility.[125] However around the turn of the century many gas fired power plants were built, and BOTAŞ extended the national gas pipeline network to most of the urban population.[126] As Turkey has almost no natural gas of its own this increased import dependency, particularly on Russian gas.[127] Therefore many more regasification plants and gas storage (such as the gas storage at Lake Tuz) were built in the early 21st century, thus ensuring a much longer buffer should the main international import pipelines be cut for any reason. However growth in Turkish electricity demand has often been overestimated. Although much energy infrastructure was privatised in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, as of 2020, energy remained highly state controlled.[125]

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See also

Notes
  1. Production + imports - exports from top right of IEA table in the citation. 1 Mtoe = 11.63 TWh

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