Climate change in South Africa

Climate change in South Africa will have wide reaching effects on the country. The most severe of which will be on water supply, and its subsequent effects such as a decrease in agriculture.[1]

South Africa contributes considerable CO2 emissions, being the 14th largest emitter of CO2.[1] Per capita, South Africa had 9.5 tons of CO2 emissions per capita in 2015—above the global average.[1] This is in large part due to its energy system relying heavily on coal and oil.[1] As part of its international commitments, South Africa has pledged to peak emissions between 2020 and 2025.[1]

Impacts

Climate change is expected to raise tempoeratures in South Africa by 2-3C by mid century, and 3-4 by the end of century in an intermediate scenario.[1] Impacts will also include changing rain patterns and increased evaporation, increasing the likelihood of extreme droughts.[1] Popular awareness of these potential impacts increased with the 2018–20 Southern Africa drought and subsequent Cape Town water crisis.[2][1]

Economy

Agriculture

Main article: Agriculture in South Africa

Agriculture is expected to be severely negatively impacted by droughts, reduced rainfal, pests, and other changes in the environment.[1]

Some predictions show surface water supply could decrease by 60% by the year 2070 in parts of the Western Cape.[3] To reverse the damage caused by land mismanagement, the government has supported a scheme which promotes sustainable development and the use of natural resources.[4]

Maize production, which contributes to a 36% majority of the gross value of South Africa's field crops, has also experienced negative effects due to climate change. The estimated value of loss, which takes into consideration scenarios with and without the carbon dioxide fertilization effect,[5] ranges between tens and hundreds of millions of Rands.[6]

Transportation

Main article: Transport in South Africa

11% of South Africa's emissions are from transportation in 2015.[1]

Energy sector

This section is an excerpt from Energy in South Africa[edit]

Total Primary Energy Supply in South Africa, 2012

South Africa has a large energy sector, being the second largest economy in Africa.

The country consumed 227 TWh of electricity in 2018.[7] The vast majority of South Africa's electricity was produced from coal, with the fuel responsible for 88% of production in 2017.[8] South Africa is the 7th largest coal producer in the world.[8] As of July 2018, South Africa had a coal power generation capacity of 39 gigawatts (GW).[8]

South Africa is planning to shift away from coal in the electricity sector. The country aims to decommission 34 GW of coal-fired power capacity by 2050.[8] It also aims to build at least 20 GW of renewable power generation capacity by 2030.[9]

South Africa is the world's 14th largest emitter of greenhouse gases.[8]

South Africa aims to generate 77,834 megawatts (MW) of electricity by 2030, with new capacity coming significantly from renewable sources to meet emission reduction targets.[10]

Renewable energy

This section is an excerpt from Renewable energy in South Africa[edit]

Primary sources of renewable energy in South Africa are solar, wind, hydroelectric, and biomass. Pictured here are wind turbines in Darling, Cape Province.

Renewable energy in South Africa is energy generated in South Africa from renewable resources, those that naturally replenish themselves—such as sunlight, wind, tides, waves, rain, biomass, and geothermal heat.[11] Renewable energy focuses on four core areas: electricity generation, air and water heating/cooling, transportation, and rural energy services.[12] The energy sector in South Africa is an important component of global energy regimes due to the country's innovation and advances in renewable energy.[13] South Africa's contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is ranked as moderate and its per capita emission rate is higher than the global average. Energy demand within the country is expected to rise steadily and double by 2025.[13]

Of all South African renewable energy sources, solar holds the most potential.[13] Because of the country's geographic location, it receives large amounts of solar energy.[13] Wind energy is also a major potential source of renewable energy.[14] Due to the high wind velocity on the coast of the country, Cape Town has implemented multiple wind farms, which generate significant amounts of energy.[14] Renewable energy systems in the long-term are comparable or cost slightly less than non-renewable sources. Biomass is currently the largest renewable energy contributor in South Africa with 9-14% of the total energy mix.[15] Renewable energy systems are costly to implement in the beginning but provide high economic returns in the long-run.[16]

The two main barriers accompanying renewable energy in South Africa are: the energy innovation system, and the high cost of renewable energy technologies.[13] The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme (REI4P) suggests that the cost associated with renewable energy will equal the cost of non-renewable energy by 2030.[16] Renewable energy is becoming more efficient, inexpensive, and widely used.[11] South Africa has an abundance of renewable resources that can effectively supply the country's energy.[15]

Political action

The South African government has committed to a peak of CO2 emissions between 2020 and 2025. However, independent observers have called the current actions by the government insufficient.[1] In part, this failure to act is related to the government ownership of Eskom, which is responsible for much of the coal operation in the country.[1] Similarly, the economy is one of the most energy intensive in the world, but hasn't been setting mitigation targets for industry.[1]

Public health

A 2019 survey of literature on adaptation and public health, found that "he volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa.".[17]

References

1. "The Carbon Brief Profile: South Africa". Carbon Brief. 2018-10-15. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
2. "Likelihood of Cape Town water crisis tripled by climate change – World Weather Attribution". Retrieved 2020-08-03.
3. Climate change to create African 'water refugees' – scientists, Reuters Alertnet. Accessed 21 September 2006]. Archived 25 October 2010 at the Wayback Machine
4. "Department of Agriculture South Africa". Nda.agric.za. Archived from the original on 11 November 2008. Retrieved 30 October 2011.
5. "The CO2 fertilization effect: higher carbohydrate production and retention as biomass and seed yield". Fao.org. Retrieved 30 October 2011.
6. J. Turpie; et al. (2002). "Economic Impacts of Climate Change in South Africa: A Preliminary Analysis of Unmitigated Damage Costs" (PDF). Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies Inc. Southern Waters Ecological Research & Consulting & Energy & Development Research Centre. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 March 2009.
7. "South Africa - Countries & Regions". IEA. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
8. "The Carbon Brief Profile: South Africa". Carbon Brief. 2018-10-15. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
9. "South Africa Energy Outlook – Analysis". IEA. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
10. "Renewables in, coal out: South Africa's energy forecast". Renewable Energy World. 2019-10-18. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
11. Ellabban, Omar; Abu-Rub, Haitham; Blaabjerg, Frede (2014-11-01). "Renewable energy resources: Current status, future prospects and their enabling technology". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 39: 748–764. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.113.
12. "Renewables 2010 Global Status Report" (PDF). www.ren21.net. September 24, 2010. Retrieved March 9, 2017.
13. Pegels, Anna (2010). "Renewable Energy in South Africa: Potentials, Barriers, and options for support". Energy Policy. 38 (9): 4945–4954. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.077.
14. Winkler, Harald (2005). "Renewable energy policy in South Africa: policy options for renewable electricity". Energy Policy. 33: 27–38. doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00195-2.
15. Banks, Douglas; Schäffler, Jason (2006). "The potential contribution of renewable energy in South Africa". Sustainable Energy & Climate Change Project: 1–116.
16. Walwyn, David; Brent, Alan (2015). "Renewable energy gathers steam in South Africa" (PDF). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 41: 390–401. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2014.08.049.
17. Chersich, Matthew F.; Wright, Caradee Y. (2019-03-19). "Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector". Globalization and Health. 15 (1): 22. doi:10.1186/s12992-019-0466-x. ISSN 1744-8603. PMC 6423888. PMID 30890178.