Climate change in Europe

Climate change in Europe describes the climate change related issues in Europe. This includes the climate politics, contribution in the global warming and the influence of the global warming in Europe. According to international climate experts global temperature rise should not exceed 2 °C to prevent the most dangerous consequences of the climate change.[1] It was also made essential to halve greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide by 2050 compared to the 1990 levels. Other countries such as Brazil and China will also reduce emissions by between 80% and 95% by 2050. It is estimated that from the now living persons alive are 70% in the year 2050. Emission reduction means development and implementation of new energy technology solutions. Some people consider that the technology revolution has already started in Europe since the markets for renewable technology have annually grown.[2]

See also: Climate change in the European Union

In the last hundred years, there has been a recorded increase in temperature of 1 °C in Europe. Although this might seem trivial, it has had huge repercussions on the global economy and in agriculture. Furthermore, "the IPCC report expects an increase of the mean global temperature by 1.8°C to 4.0°C".[3]

European Union climate chief is Connie Hedegaard since 10 February 2010.

Increase of average yearly temperature in selected cities in Europe (1900-2017)[4]

Effects

Climate change affects both people and the environment in the world as well as in Europe. Human-induced climate change has the potential to alter the prevalence and severity of extreme weather like storms, floods, droughts, heat waves and cold waves. These extreme weather changes may increase the severity of diseases in animals as well as humans. The heat waves will increase the number of forest fires. Experts have warned that climate change may increase the number of global climate refugees from 150 million in 2008 to 800 million in future. International agreement of refugees does not recognize the climate change refugees. Climate change affects animals habitats like polar bears as it increases global warming and therefore melts the ice in the poles.

The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. According to Nature, it is very likely that the heat wave was human-induced by greenhouse gases.[5]

According to European Environment Agency (2012), the average temperature over land in Europe in the last decade was 1.3 °C warmer than the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Exceptional melting in the Greenland ice sheet was recorded in the summer of 2012. Arctic sea ice extent and volume have been decreasing much faster than projected.[6]

A study of future changes in flood, heat-waves, and drought impacts for 571 European cities, using climate model runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) found that heat-wave days increase across all cities, but especially in southern Europe, whilst the greatest heatwave temperature increases are expected in central European cities. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions intensify in southern European cities while river flooding worsens in northern European cities. However, the high impact scenario projects that most European cities will see increases in both drought and river flood risks. Over 100 cities are particularly vulnerable to two or more climate impacts.[7]

Observed impacts
Record meteorological events In Europe.[8]
When Where What Cost
2003Europehottest summer in at least 500 years70,000 deaths
2000England and Waleswettest autumn on record since 1766£1.3 billion
2007England and Waleswettest July on record since 1766£3 billion
2007Greecehottest summer since 1891wildfires
2010Russiahottest summer since 1500$15 billion. 55,000 deaths
2011Francehottest and driest spring since 1880grain harvest down by 12%
2012Arcticsea ice minimum
Costs are estimates

The heat wave in 2018 in England, which would take hundreds of lives, would have had 30 times less of a chance of happening, without climate change. By 2050, such patterns would occur every 2 years if the current rate of warming continues.[9][10] In the absence of climate change, extreme heat waves in Europe would be expected to occur only once every several hundred years. In addition to hydrological changes, grain crops mature earlier at a higher temperature, which may reduce the critical growth period and lead to lower grain yields. The Russian heat wave in 2010 caused grain harvest down by 25%, government ban wheat exports, and losses were 1% of GDP. Russian heat wave 2010 estimate for deaths is 55,000.[8]

The heat wave in summer of 2019 as of June 28, claimed human lives, caused closing or taking special measures in 4,000 schools in France only, and big wildfires. Many areas declared state of emergency and advised the public to avoid "risky behaviour" like leaving children in cars or jogging outside in the middle of the day". " In a TV interview, Health Minister Agnès Buzyn said she was concerned about the increase in calls to emergency service numbers as a result of the heatwave."[11] The heatwave was made at least 5 times more likely by climate change and possibly even 100 times[12]

The summer of 2019 brought a series of high temperature records in Western Europe. During a heat wave a glaciological rarity in the form of a previously unseen lake emerged in the Mont Blanc Massif in the French Alps, at the foot of the Dent du Géant at an altitude of about 3400 meters, that was considered as evidence for the effects of global warming on the glaciers.[13][14][15]

The Arctic sea ice reached a record minimum in September 2012. It halved the area of ice covering the Arctic Ocean in summers over the last 30 years.[8]

In 2019 for the first time, cases of Zika fever were diagnosed in Europe not because people traveled to tropical countries like Brazil, but from local mosquitos. The warming climate causes probably the change.[16]

Emissions

Coal
See also: Coal in Europe

The annual CO2 emissions from coal were in the OECD Europe during 2005–2008 on average equal to the year 2000. There are however country specific differences. During 1990-2008 emissions from coal were the highest in Europe in Russia, Germany, Poland, Ukraine and United Kingdom. Among the top 20 coal emission countries only four countries have increased their annual average emissions from coal during 2005-2008 compared to the year 1990, namely Turkey (181%), Finland ( 121%), Italy (115%) and Greece (108%).

Many Eastern European countries, including East Germany, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia, Estonia and Hungary, and also United Kingdom, have significantly declined their coal dependency from 1990 to 2000. However, the statistics of the IEA gives no evidence of decline of coal dependency during 2000–2008 in Europe. Belgium is the only European country among the top 20 countries that have clearly declined their climate change emissions from coal during 2000–2008.

Annual CO2 emissions from coal in Europe (Mt) (IAE)
Population 1990 2000 2000-4 2005-8= # # / 2000 # / 1990 # / capita
1Russia141.868744142742195%61%3.0
2Germany82.1505337342337100%67%4.1
3Poland38.128721721121097%73%5.5
4Ukraine46.3283116127139120%49 %3.0
5UK61.4238138144147106%62 %2.4
6Turkey71.1588980105118%181%1.5
7Kazakhstan15.71538090108135%71%6.9
8Czechia10.412184807792%64%7.4
9Italy59.955435463146%115%1.1
10Spain45.67481797086%95 %1.5
11France64.17458505290%70%0.8
12Romania21.550293235123%71%1.6
13Greece11.23337383696%108 %3.2
14Serbia7.44135373394%79%4.5
15Bulgaria7.637252829116%80 %3.9
16Netherlands16.432293230103%95 %1.8
17Finland5.321212925122%121%4.8
18Belgium10.73929231861%45 %1.6
19Denmark5.524151818114%74%3.2
20Austria8.316141616108%97%1.9
TOP 20730.42,8271,9201,9351,970103%70%
Mt = million tonnes of CO2 # = 2005-2008

Top 20 countries and the number order based on emissions in 2008
2000-2004 and 2005-2008 = average annual emission

Shipping

Greenhouse gas emissions from shipping equal the carbon footprint of a quarter of passenger cars in Europe. In France, Germany, UK, Spain, Sweden and Finland shipping emissions in 2018 were larger than the emissions from all the passenger cars registered in 10 or more of the largest cities in each country. Despite the scale emissions, they are not part of emissions reduction targets made by countries as part of the Paris agreement on climate change.[17]

Response
Further information: European Green Deal

In the beginning of the 21th century the European Union, begun to conceive the European Green Deal as its main program of climate change mitigation.[18]

General overview

Climate Targets

The climate commitments of the European Union are divided into 3 main categories: targets for the year 2020, 2030 and 2050. The European Union claim that his policies are in line with the goal of the Paris Agreement.[19][20] The programm of response to climate change in Europe is called European Green Deal.[18] In April of the year 2020 the European Parliament called to include the European Green Deal in the recovery program from the COVID-19 pandemic[21]

Targets for the year 2020:

  • Reduce GHG emissions by 20% from the level in 1990.
  • Produce 20% of energy from renewable sources.
  • Increase Energy Efficiency by 20%[22].

Targets for the year 2030:

  • Reduce GHG emission by 50% - 55% from the level in 1990[23][24]
  • Produce 32% of energy from renewables.
  • Increase energy efficiency by 32.5%.[25]

Targets for the year 2050:

  • Became climate neutral.[26]

Implementation

The European Union claims that he has already achieved the 2020 target for emission reduction and have the legislation needed to achieve the 2030 targets. Already in 2018, its GHG emissions were 23% lower that in 1990.[27]

Legislation

There is in place national legislation, international agreements and EU directives. The EU directive 2001/77/EU promotes renewable energy in electricity production. The climate subprogramme will provide €864 million in co-financing for climate projects between 2014 and 2020. Its main objectives are to contribute to the shift towards a low carbon and climate resilient economy and improve the development, implementation and enforcement of EU climate change policies and laws.[28]

In March of the year 2020 a draft of a climate law for the entire European Union was proposed. The law obliges the European Union to become carbon neutral by 2050 and adjust all his policies to the target. The law includes measures to increase the use of trains. The law includes a mechanism to check the implementation of the needed measures. It also should increase the climate ambitions of other countries. It includes a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,[29] that will prevent Carbon leakage.[30] Greta Thunberg and other climate activist criticized the draft saying it has not enough strong targets[31]

Stern report 2006

British government and economist Nicholas Stern published the Stern report in 2006. The Review states that climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen, presenting a unique challenge for economics. The Review provides prescriptions including environmental taxes to minimize the economic and social disruptions. The Stern Review's main conclusion is that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change far outweigh the costs of not acting.[32] The Review points to the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, food production, health, and the environment. According to the Review, without action, the overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, now and forever. Including a wider range of risks and impacts could increase this to 20% of GDP or more.

No-one can predict the consequences of climate change with complete certainty; but we now know enough to understand the risks. The review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.[33]

Paris Climate Agreement 2016

On April 22, 2016 the Paris Climate Accords were signed by all but three countries around the world. The conference to talk about this document was held in Paris, France. This put Europe in the epicenter of talks about the environment and climate change. The EU was the first major economy that decided to submit its intended contribution to the new agreement in March 2015. The EU ratified the Paris Agreement on October 5, 2015.[34]

In these talks the countries agreed that they all had a long-term goal of keeping global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius. They agreed that global emissions need to peak as soon as possible, and recognize that this will take longer for developing countries. On the subject of transparency the countries agreed that they would meet every five years to set ambitious goals, report their progress to the public and each other, and track progress for their long-term goals throughout a transparent and accountable system.[35]

The countries recognized the importance of non-party stakeholders to be involved in this process. Cities, regions, and local authorities are encouraged to uphold and promote regional and international cooperation.[35]

Climate emergency

EU parliament declared climate emergency in November 2019. It urged all EU countries to commit to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. MEPs backed a tougher target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. The vote came as scientists warned that the world may have already crossed a series of climate tipping points, resulting in “a state of planetary emergency”.[36] The parliament also calls to end all fossil fuel subsidies by 2020, increase at least twice the payments to the green climate fund, make sure that all the legislation and the European budget will be in line with the 1.5 degrees target, reduce emissions from aviation and shipping[24]

Divestment from fosil fuels

The European Investment Bank declared that it will divest almost completely from fossil fuels from the year 2021 and stopping to accept new projects already in 2019[37]

The central bank of Sweden sold its bonds in the provinces Queensland, Western Australia in Australia and the province Alberta from Canada because of severe climate impacts from those provinces[38]

In the end of November 2019, the European parliament adopted resolution calling to end all subsidies to fossil fuels by 2020[24]

Sustainable investments

In 2019 the European Parliament created rules for identification of sustainable investments. The measure should help achieve climate neutral Europe[39]

Green recovery from the Coronavirus pandemic

In May 2020, the €750 billion European recovery package and the €1 trillion euro budget were announced. The European Green deal is part of it. One of the principles is "Do no harm".The money will be spent only on projects that meet some green criteria. 25% of all funding will go to Climate change mitigation. Fossil fuels and Nuclear power are excluded from the funding. The recovery package is also should restore some equilibrium between rich and poor contries in the European Union.[40] In July the recovery package and the budget were generally accepted. The part of the money that should go to climate action raised to 30%. The plan includes some green taxation on European products and on import. But critics say it is still not enough for achieving the climate targets of the European Union and it is not clear how to ensure that all the money will really go to green projects[41]

Nature restoration and Agriculture
Further information: Biodiversity

In May 2020, the European Union published 2 planes, that are part of the European Green Deal: The EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and From Farm to Fork.

In the official page of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 is cited Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, saing that:

"Making nature healthy again is key to our physical and mental wellbeing and is an ally in the fight against climate change and disease outbreaks. It is at the heart of our growth strategy, the European Green Deal, and is part of a European recovery that gives more back to the planet than it takes away."[42]

The biodiversity strategy is an essential part of the climate change mitigation strategy of the European Union. From the 25% of the european budget that will go to fight climate change, large part will go to restore biodiversity and nature based solutions.

The EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 include the next targets:

  • Protect 30% of the sea territory and 30% of the land territory especially Old-growth forests.
  • Plant 3 billion trees by the year 2030.
  • Restore at least 25,000 kilometers of rivers, so they will become free flowing.
  • Reduce the use of Pesticides by 50% by the year 2030.
  • Increase Organic farming.
  • Increase Biodiverisity in agriculture.
  • Give €20 billion per year to the issue and make it part of the business practice.

According to the page, approximately half of the global GDP depend on nature. In Europe many parts of the economy that generate trillions € per year, depend on nature. Only the benefits of Natura 2000 in Europe are €200 - €300 billions per year[42]

In the official page of the program From Farm to Fork is cited Frans Timmermans the Executive Vice-President of the European Commission, saying that:

"The coronavirus crisis has shown how vulnerable we all are, and how important it is to restore the balance between human activity and nature. At the heart of the Green Deal the Biodiversity and Farm to Fork strategies point to a new and better balance of nature, food systems and biodiversity; to protect our people’s health and well-being, and at the same time to increase the EU’s competitiveness and resilience. These strategies are a crucial part of the great transition we are embarking upon."[43]

The program include the next targets:

  • Making 25% of EU agriculture organic, by the year 2030.
  • Reduce by 50% the use of Pesticides by the year 2030.
  • Reduce the use of Fertilizers by 20% by the year 2030.
  • Reduce nutrient loss by at least 50%.
  • Reduce the use of antimicrobials in agriculture and antimicrobials in aquaculture by 50% by 2030.
  • Create sustainable food labeling.
  • Reduce food waste by 50% by 2030.
  • Dedicate to R&I related to the issue €10 billion.[43]

Critics

The critics include that European companies, like in other OECD countries, have moved the energy intensive, polluting and climate gas emitting industry to Asia and South America. In respect to climate change there are no harmless areas. Carbon emissions from all countries are equal. The agreements exclude significant factors like deforestation, aviation and tourism, the actual end consumption of energy and the history of emissions. Negotiations are country oriented but the economical interests are in conflict between the energy producers, consumers and the environment.

By country

Sweden
Further information: Climate change in Sweden

Regarding greenhouse gas emission as a whole, the country have 4 targets: from the level of 1990, emissions should be reduced by 40% by the year 2020, by 63% by the year 2030, achieve net zero emissions by 2045, and reach negative emissions after this year.[44]

In 2020, 2 years before it was planned to be done, Sweden closed it latest coal fired power station and became coal free, the third country in Europe, after Belgium and Austria.[45] As of 2018, 54% of energy came from renewables sources. The country have a target to achieve 100% electricity from renweables by 2040.[46]

Denmark

In 2019 Denmark passed a law in which its pledge to reduce GHG emissions by 70% by 2030 from the level in 1990. It also pledged to achieve zero emissions by 2050. The law includes strong monitoring system and setting intermediate targets every 5 years. It includes a pledge to help climate action in other countries and consider climate impacts in diplomatic and economic relations with other countries.[47]

Italy
Population density and altitude above sealevel in Northeast Italy (2010)

In 2019, Italy became the first country in the world to introduce mandatory lessons about sustainability and climate change. The lessons will be taught in all schools, in the ages 6 –19, one hour each week.[48]

Austria

At the beginning of the year 2020, major parties in Austria reach a deal, including achieving carbon - neutrality of the country by 2040, produce all electricity from renewable sources by 2030, making a nationwide carbon tax and making a tax on flying, what should making trains more attractive.[49]

In 2020 the latest coal fired power station in the country was closed. Austria became the second country in Europe, after Belgium to became coal free. The goal of achieving 100% renewable electrycity by 2030 was adopted by government[50]

Finland

Finland has a target of carbon neutrality by the year 2035 without carbon credits. The policies include nature conservation, more investments in trains, changes in taxation and more sustainable wood burning.[51] After 2035 Finland will be carbon negative, meaning soaking more carbon than emitting[52]

Norway

Norway wants to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 partly by investing in projects with emissions reduction abroad. It wants to achieve zero emission in the country by 2050.[53] In the year 2020 Norway pledged to achieve a 50% - 55% reduction in domesticated emissions from the level of 1990 by 2030.[54]

As of March 2020, 55.9% of the car sales in Norway were electric cars, 26.4% were hybrids (with or without plugs)[55]

Iceland

Iceland has a target of becoming carbon neutral by 2040.[56] It wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by the year 2030.[57]

gollark: Python deliberately nerfed its iterator wotsits.
gollark: `xs.iter().find(|x| x == whatever).unwrap_or(whatever_else)`
gollark: I mean, I think you can do that with iterators, options and `.find` or something quite nicely.
gollark: Python *is* often very weird.
gollark: Python actually has `for`/`else` for weirdness reasons.

See also

References
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  2. Ilmastonmuutos otettiin yhä vakavammin; Yle 30.12.2008 (in Finnish)
  3. C. Lippert, T. Krimly, J. Aurbacher, 2009, A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in Germany, pg1
  4. Kayser-Bril, Nicolas (24 September 2018). "Europe is getting warmer, and it's not looking like it's going to cool down anytime soon". EDJNet. Retrieved 25 September 2018.
  5. Stott, Peter A.; Stone, D. A.; Allen, M. R. (2004). "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003". Nature. 432 (7017): 610–614. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..610S. doi:10.1038/nature03089. PMID 15577907.
  6. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012 EEA 2012
  7. Guerreiro, Selma B.; Dawson, Richard J.; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elizabeth; Ford, Alistair (2018). "Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities". Environmental Research Letters. 13 (3): 034009. Bibcode:2018ERL....13c4009G. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaaad3. ISSN 1748-9326.
  8. Why a 4 degree centrigrade warmer world must be avoided November 2012 World Bank
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  13. Climat : un lac s'est formé sur le Mont Blanc à 3 000 mètres d’altitude - Un lac a été découvert sur le Mont Blanc, à un peu plus de 3 000 mètres d'altitude, entre la Dent du Géant et le Col de Rochefort
  14. A Hiker Found This Beautiful Lake In The Alps. There's Just One Small Problem
  15. La formation d'un lac dans le massif du Mont-Blanc est-elle liée au réchauffement climatique?
  16. Davidson, Jordan (November 8, 2019). "'We Now Have a New Exotic Disease in Europe': Native Zika Virus Spreads Due to Climate Change". Ecowatch. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
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  28. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/budget/life_en
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  33. Sir Nicholas Stern: Stern Review : The Economics of Climate Change, Executive Summary,10/2006 Archived September 20, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  34. http://www.businessinsider.com/195-countries-that-signed-paris-climate-agreement-accord-deal-2017-5
  35. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en
  36. 'Our house is on fire': EU parliament declares climate emergency The Guardian 28 Nov 2019
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  43. "From Farm to Fork". European Commission website. European Union. Retrieved 26 May 2020. Text was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
  44. Allerup, Jonas. "Sweden's Climate Act and Climate Policy Framework". Swedishepa.se. Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
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