2019 United Kingdom general election in Wales

The 2019 United Kingdom general election was held on 12 December 2019 to elect all 650 members of the House of Commons, including the 40 Welsh seats.

2019 United Kingdom general election
12 December 2019 (2019-12-12)
All 40 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
Turnout66.6%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson Adam Price[1]
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 12 September 2015 23 July 2019 28 September 2018
Last election 28 seats, 48.9% 8 seats, 33.6% 4 seats, 10.4%
Seats before 28 6 4
Seats won 22 14 4
Seat change 6 6
Popular vote 632,035 557,234 153,265
Percentage 40.9 36.1 9.9
Swing 8.0% 2.5% 0.5%
Results by constituency

Compared to the 2017 general election, the Labour Party lost six seats, each of which was won by the Conservative Party. Plaid Cymru retained its four seats. This reflected a decrease in vote share of 8% from the Labour Party, matched by increases in vote share for the Brexit Party and Conservative Party of 5.4% and 2.5%, respectively. However, the Labour Party remained the party receiving the most votes, with a 40.9% vote share. Having gained Brecon and Radnorshire in the 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election earlier in the year, the Welsh Liberal Democrats lost to the Conservatives.

Overall, 1,544,357 votes were cast in Wales, reflecting a turnout of 66.6% of the electorate.

Electoral system

MPs are elected in 40 Single Member constituencies by first-past-the-post.

History and background

The election was called on 29 October 2019, when its date was fixed as 12 December.

In the European Elections in Wales of June 2019, the Brexit Party, newly formed, had taken 32.5% of the votes and won two seats, Plaid Cymru had come second with 20% and one MEP, Jill Evans, and Labour had finished third, with 15.3% and also one MEP, Jackie Jones.[2]

In the run-up to the general election, the Conservative party ousted one of its MPs, Guto Bebb of Aberconwy, who then sat as an independent until the end of the parliament and did not seek re-election.[3] Additionally, the Conservative party lost a by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire[4] to the Liberal Democrats. Before the election, the numbers were 28 Labour MPs, six Conservative, four Plaid, one Liberal Democrat, and one Independent (Bebb).

Plaid Cymru had gained one seat in the previous election. The party was for stopping Brexit and holding a second referendum on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, which was at odds with how Wales had voted in the 2016 referendum. The party did not make any gains, and its total vote share was down 0.5%.

Target seats

Labour

Plaid Cymru

Results
Party[5] Seats Votes
TotalGainsLosses Net +/- % seats Total % Change
Labour 22 0 6 6 55 632,035 40.9 8.0
Conservative 14 6[lower-alpha 1] 0 6 35 557,234 36.1 2.5
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0 10 153,265 9.9 0.5
Liberal Democrats 0 0 0[lower-alpha 2] 0 92,171 6.0 1.5
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 83,908 5.4 N/A
Green 0 0 0 0 15,828 1.0 0.7
  Independents 0 0 0[lower-alpha 3] 0 6,220 0.4 N/A
  Gwlad Gwlad 0 0 0 0 1,515 0.1 N/A
Cynon Valley 0 0 0 0 1,322 0.1 N/A
Monster Raving Loony 0 0 0 0 345 0.0
Christian 0 0 0 0 245 0.0 N/A[lower-alpha 4]
SDP 0 0 0 0 181 0.0 N/A[lower-alpha 4]
Socialist Alternative 0 0 0 0 88 0.0 N/A[lower-alpha 5]
Total40 1,544,357 Turnout 66.6
  1. Not including Brecon and Radnorshire and Aberconwy, which the Conservative Party won in 2017 but did not control when parliament was dissolved.
  2. Not including Brecon and Radnorshire, which the Liberal Democrats won in a 2019 by-election.
  3. Not including Aberconwy, previously controlled by the independent Guto Bebb who lost the Conservative Party whip in 2019.
  4. Party entered candidates in the 2017 general election but not in any Welsh seats.
  5. Party has entered candidates in past general elections but not the 2017 general election.
Popular vote
Labour
 
 40.9%
Conservative
 
 36.1%
Plaid Cymru
 
 9.9%
Liberal Democrats
 
 6.0%
Brexit Party
 
 5.0%
Greens
 
 1.0%
Parliament seats
Labour
 
 55%
Conservative
 
 35%
Plaid Cymru
 
 10%

Opinion polling
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election § Wales

(Includes polls in which polling concluded on or before: 31 May 2019)

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dem UKIP Green Change UK Brexit Other Lead
2019 general election 12 Dec 2019 – 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% – 1.0% – 5.4% 0.6% 4.8%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 22–25 Nov 2019 1,116 38% 32% 11% 9% – 1% – 8% 1% 6%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 31 Oct–4 Nov 2019 1,136 29% 28% 12% 12% 0% 3% 0% 15% 1% 1%
YouGov/ITV News 10–14 October 2019 1,071 25% 29% 12% 16% — 4% — 14% 1% 4%
1 August 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election[6]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 23–28 July 2019 1,071 22% 24% 15% 16% — 3% — 18% 1% 2%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 16–20 May 2019 1,009 25% 17% 13% 12% 1% 5% 2% 23% 2% 2%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 33% 26% 15% 7% 3% 2% 9% 4% 1% 7%
4 April 2019 Newport West by-election[6]
ICM/BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 2019 1,000 42% 33% 13% 6% 3% 1% – – 2% 9%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 19–22 Feb 2019 1,025 35% 29% 14% 8% 6% 3% – – 4% 6%
Sky Data/Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 2018 1,014 45% 32% 14% 3% 4% 2% – – 1% 13%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[7][8]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 4–7 Dec 2018 1,024 43% 31% 13% 6% 3% 3% – – 1% 12%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,031 42% 33% 10% 7% 4% 2% – – 1% 9%
Survation/Channel 4 20 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,177 47% 30% 13% 6% 3% 2% – – 0% 17%
28 September 2018 Adam Price becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[9]
6 September 2018 Paul Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[10]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 28 Jun–2 Jul 2018 1,031 44% 31% 13% 5% 3% 2% – – 1% 13%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 12–15 Mar 2018 1,015 46% 33% 11% 4% 4% 2% – – 1% 13%
ICM/BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 2018 1,001 49% 32% 11% 5% 2% 1% – – 0% 17%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 21–24 Nov 2017 1,016 47% 31% 11% 5% 3% 2% – – 1% 16%
3 November 2017 Jane Dodds becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[11]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 4–7 Sep 2017 1,011 50% 32% 8% 4% 3% 1% – – 1% 18%
2017 general election 8 June 2017 – 48.9% 33.6% 10.4% 4.5% 2.0% 0.3% – – 0.2% 15.4%
gollark: Anyway, though, esobot contains backdoor(s) I added when I made some PRs.
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See also

References
  1. Serves as an MS in the Welsh Assembly for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.
  2. Statement of Parties Nominated and Notice of Poll / Datganiad o’r Pleidiau a Enwebwyd a Rhybudd o Etholiad Cardiff City Council
  3. Mikhailova, Anna (4 September 2019). "Boris Johnson to strip 21 Tory MPs of the Tory whip in parliamentary bloodbath". Daily Telegraph.
  4. "Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: Lib Dems beat Conservatives". BBC News. 2 August 2019. Retrieved 2 August 2019.
  5. "Results of the 2019 General Election in Wales". BBC News. Retrieved 14 December 2019.
  6. "By-elections since the 2017 General Election". UK Parliament. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  7. "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  8. "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  9. "Adam Price replaces Wood as Plaid leader". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2019.
  10. "Paul Davies wins Welsh Tory assembly group leadership poll". BBC News. 6 September 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  11. "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
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