2016 Assam Legislative Assembly election

The Assam Legislative Assembly Election of 2016 was held in two phases, on 4 and 11 April 2016, to elect members of the 126 constituencies in Assam, a state in North-eastern India.[1] The overall voter turnout was 84.72%, which set a new record for Assam.[2][3] The turnout was an increase from the 2011 Assembly election figure of 75%.[4]

2016 Assam Legislative Assembly election

4–11 April 2016
All 126 seats in the Legislature of Assam 64 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	84.72%
Majority party Minority party Third party   Leader Sarbananda Sonowal Tarun Gogoi Badruddin Ajmal Party BJP INC AIUDF Alliance NDA UPA Grand Alliance Leader since 2016 1976 2005 Leader's seat Majuli Titabar Salmara South (lost) Last election 26 78 18 Seats won 86 26 13 Seat change 60 52 5 Popular vote 7,035,724 (BJP+AGP+BPF) 5,238,655 (INC only) 2,207,945 (AIUDF only) Percentage 41.9% 31.0% 13.0%
Constituency-wise map of Assam
Chief Minister before election Tarun Gogoi INC Elected Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal BJP

The counting of votes and results declaration was completed on 19 May 2016. The election brought a change of power as the Indian National Congress (INC), which had formed the government under Tarun Gogoi since 2001, lost its majority to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, lit "Indian People's Party") led by Sarbananda Sonowal.

Background

The prior Assam assembly ended on 5 June 2016.[5] The full bench of the Election Commission headed by Syed Nasim Ahmad Zaidi visited Assam on 21 December 2015.[6] Voter-verified paper audit trails were introduced in 10 constituencies (approximately 2400 polling booths) in Assam assembly polls.[7] These included the four assembly constituencies in Kamrup Metro district: Dispur, Jalukbari, Gauhati East and Gauhati West.[8] 250 polling stations were made model polling stations.[9]

Electoral process

An update to the National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) was to be completed by 1 January 2016, monitored by the Supreme Court of India.[10][11] By September 2015, the first phase was completed; over 66.90 lakh (6,690,000) households submitted forms linking themselves to either the NRC of 1951 or any of the electoral rolls prior to 24 March 1971. It was to be followed by verifying the applications.

The effort was intended to detect and deport the illegal migrants who came from neighbouring Bangladesh on or after 25 March 1971.[12] Since 1985, Foreigners' Tribunals have declared over 38,000 persons in Assam as illegal migrants. Nearly 1.5 lakh (150,000) names in Assam's electoral rolls carry the prefix "D" for "Doubtful" citizenship status.[13] The Supreme Court directed the Assam Government to complete the final NRC by 1 March 2016.[14][15] In May 2015, the historic India–Bangladesh land swap deal was signed, exchanging long-standing territorial enclaves and simplifying the border.[16]

According to the draft electoral rolls published in October 2015, the total number of voters in Assam stand at 1.92 crore (19.2 million). The Election Commission said that final electoral rolls would be published by 11 January 2016.

Religion data

According to the 2011 census, 61.5% were Hindus, 34.22% were Muslims.[17][18] Christian minorities (3.7%) are mostly among some of the Scheduled Castes and Tribes (SC/ST) population.[19] The Scheduled Tribe population (both ST(Plains) and ST(Hills) combined) in Assam is around 13% of which the Bodo people(an indigenous Assamese community) account for 40% and the Scheduled Caste population is about 7.4% of which the Kaibarta and Jal Keot(both indigenous Assamese communities) combined account for about 36%.[20]

Out of 32 districts of Assam, 11 are Muslim majority according to the 2011 census.[21] The districts are Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Morigaon, Nagaon, Hojai, Karimganj, South Salmara–Mankachar, Hailakandi, Darrang and Bongaigaon.[22][23][24] Bodos have a population share of 12% and the Kaibarta and Jal Keot have a total share of about 10% (all of which are a part of the indigenous Assamese community).[25] The share of the indigenous Assamese communities in Assam was about 47% in the 2001 census which has reduced to about 40-45% in 2016 as predicted by experts. Indigenous Assamese Muslims, also known as Khilonjia Muslims, include ethnic groups such as Goria and Moria, and are estimated to be around 40 lakhs in population out of a total 1 crore (4 million out of 10 million) Muslims in Assam.[26]

Campaign

In November 2015, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Amit Shah held a party workers' rally in Dibrugarh in Upper Assam Division.[27] Union Minister and Lakhimpur MP Sarbananda Sonowal was made Assam BJP chief to head their election committee.[28] Sonowal found the situation of illegal immigration from Bangladesh "very alarming".[29] (Sonowal had led an effort to have the controversial Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) (IMDT) Act struck down by the Supreme court of India in December 2006, making deportations easier.)[30] Himanta Biswa Sarma, a state Congress heavyweight joined BJP.[31] BJP has aimed for 'Mission 84' in Assam.[32][33] BJP led in 69 assembly constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections 2014 by winning 7 Lok Sabha seats in Assam.[34] For the first time, the BJP had contested the Bodoland Territorial Council elections, and won a seat.[35]

In December 2015, Indian National Congress (INC) Vice-President Rahul Gandhi visited Assam where he accused Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS, lit "National Volunteer Organisation") workers of not letting him enter Barpeta Satra temple in Barpeta district.[36] RSS, widely regarded as the parent organisation of BJP, denied the charge. Gandhi announced that Tarun Gogoi would be the chief minister candidate of INC.[37] Demand was growing for giving scheduled tribe (ST) status to six communities – Tai Ahoms, Koch Rajbongshis, Moran, Motok, Sootea and 36 tea tribes (the descendants of tea garden workers settled by British in the state from Chotanagpur plateau in the mid-19th century).[38][39]

In November 2015, nine members of the legislative assembly left the INC and joined BJP.[40] Assam Governor PB Acharya made a controversial statement that Hindustan is only for Hindus.[41] Ex-United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) rebels announced that they would contest Assam polls.[42] On 26 December 2015, BJP's Assam unit launched its 'Assam Nirman' initiative, seeking public opinion to prepare a vision document for development in Assam.[43]

On 28 December 2015, Smriti Irani visited Barak Valley in Assam and accused the Tarun Gogoi government of not doing enough for women's safety.[44][45] Gogoi accused the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government of stalling tactics on granting citizenship to refugees from Bangladesh, claiming that they had been persecuted there.[46] Gogoi said external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj met with businessmen in Assam during her visit instead of talking about the problems and issues confronting the state.[47]

In January 2016, the Gogoi government announced rice prices at Rs 2 per kilogramme and to build all-religion bhawans.[48][49] The Assam INC President ruled-out any alliance with All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) or Asom Gana Parishad (AGP, lit "Assam Peoples Association") parties.[50][51] Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh visited Assam on 3 January 2016 and said the fencing along the Indo-Bangladesh border would be completed by December 2016.[52][53] A delegation of the All Assam Students Union (AASU) met Singh and visited the border areas. Rajnath Singh visited Dhubri district and expressed dissatisfaction with the fencing work there. He said that a feasibility study and two pilot projects were underway in the Dhubri sector of the riverine border.[54] Gogoi said that 97.32% of the border fencing work in Karimganj and Dhubri was complete and asked the Central Government to take up a pilot project involving technological solutions to plug the riverine border.[55][56]

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Kokrajhar on 19 January 2016, after his visit to Sikkim on 18 January 2016.[57] Modi formally announced the alliance of Bodoland People's Front (BPF) with BJP in Assam.[58]

On 28 January, the BJP Parliamentary Board announced Sarbananda Sonowal as their Chief Ministerial candidate of Assam.[59] Union minister of state for commerce and industry Nirmala Sitharaman accused Gogoi of spreading misinformation on the suspension of the North East Industrial and Investment Promotion Policy (NEIIPP), 2007.[60] Ethnic groups of Assam sought ULFA pro-talks faction headed by founding general secretary Anup Chetia to help them receive ST designation.[61][62]

Modi arrived on 5 February to first attend the 85th conference of the Srimanta Sankaradeva Sangha at the erstwhile Ahom capital of Sivasagar. Then he addressed a rally at Moran.[63][64][65] Modi dedicated the Assam gas cracker project at Dibrugarh[66] and inaugurated the 2016 South Asian Games in Guwahati on 5 February.[67]

On 2 March, the BJP announced its alliance with AGP.[68] AGP was given 24 seats.[69] Gogoi announced a special package of Rs 3,000 cr (Rs 30 billion) for Barak Valley.[70] Gandhi visited Assam for two days, 4–5 March 2016, and addressed public meetings in Silchar and Nagaon.[71] On 6 March 2016, INC allied with Bodo-heartland-based United People's Party in a strategy to counter BJP's alliance with BPF.[72]

On 10 March, BJP declared candidates for the first phase of Assam elections.[73] Out of 126 Assembly constituencies, BJP contested 84 constituencies and left 42 to its four National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies: AGP (24), BPF (16), Rabha Jatiya Aikya Manch (1) and Tiwa Jatiya Aikya Manch (1). BJP gave tickets to two ex-militants including Bhaskar Sarma (who was accused of secret killings). On 16 March 2016, Sarbananda Sonowal filed his nomination for the Majuli (ST) assembly seat.[74][75] Modi addressed a rally in Majuli on 23 March 2016.[76] INC released its first list of 65 candidates on 15 March 2016;[77] the second list of 57 candidates was announced on 21 March 2016.[78][79] INC contested 122 seats while its ally United People's Party contested the remaining 4 seats.[80] BJP's Himanta Biswa Sarma filed nomination papers from Jalukbari on 21 March 2016.[81] AIUDF contested around 76 seats while its allies in Assam – Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal (United) (JD[U]) – contest 12 seats each.[82] AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal ran for South Salmara seat, while Gogoi ran for the Titabar seat against BJP MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa.[83][84]

On 12 February 2016, the Election Commission of India announced that 10 assembly constituencies in Assam will have 2300 voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) machines attached along with electronic voting machines (EVMs).[85]

Schedule

The dates of the election were announced on 4 March 2016. (In previous elections, all 140 constituencies went to polls on the same day.)[86]

The polling was held in two phases, on 4 and 11 April 2016. The counting was scheduled on 19 May 2016 for both phases.[87]

Schedule of polling and results[87]
Phase 1	4 April 2016
Phase 2	11 April 2016
Counting of votes and result	19 May 2016

Assembly constituencies of Assam having VVPAT facility with EVMs[87]
Silchar	Dhubri	Bongaigaon
Goalpara East	Jalukbari	Dispur
Gauhati East	Guahati West	Tezpur
Jorhat

Opinion polls

When conducted	Ref	Polling organisation/Agency	Sample size
				INC	BJP+	AIUDF	Other
April 2016	[88]	India TV-C Voter	NA	53	55	12	6
March 2016	[89]	Nielsen	NA	36	78	10	2
March 2016	[90]	AVC	NA	40	48-54	25	0
January 2016	[91][92][93]	India TV-C-Voter	NA	44	57	19	6

Exit polls

Agency	INC+	BJP+	AIUDF	Others	Ref.[94]
News Nation	47-51	63-67	7-11	NA	[95]
C Voter	41	57	18	10	[96]
Chanakya	27	90	9	NA	[96]
ABP Nielsen	33	81	10	2	[96]
NDTV Poll of Polls	37	73	12	4	[96]

Voting

Voter turnout was 84.72%.[97] 87.03% polling was recorded in the second phase, the highest in Assam's history.[98][99] One person was killed by police in Assam.[100] 189 EVMs were replaced in the final phase due to technical issues.[101] A total of 1,064 candidates contested the elections – 122 from INC, 89 from BJP, 74 from AIUDF, 30 from AGP, 13 from the BPF, 15 from CPI, 19 from CPM, 205 others and 497 Independents. The total number of polling stations in Assam was 24,890, spread across 50 election districts.

Result

	Flag	Party	Alliance	Contested	Won	+/-	Votes	%
		Bharatiya Janata Party	NDA	89	60	55	4,992,185	29.5
		Asom Gana Parishad	NDA	30	14	5	1,377,482	8.1
		Bodoland People's Front	NDA	13	12		666,057	3.9
		Rabha Jatiya Aikya Manch	NDA	1	0
		Tiwa Jatiya Aikya Manch	NDA	1	0
	style="text-align:left;"	Indian National Congress	UPA	122	26	53	5,238,655	31.0
		United People's Party	UPA	4	0
		All India United Democratic Front	G.A	74	13	13	2,207,945	13.0
		Rashtriya Janata Dal	G.A	12	0
		Janata Dal (United)	G.A	12	0
		Communist Party of India (Marxist)	Left	19	0		93,508	0.6
		Communist Party of India	Left	15	0		37,243	0.2
		Independents			1	2	1,867,532	11.0
Total					126
Valid votes
Invalid votes
Votes cast / turnout
Abstentions
Registered voters

Victorious candidates

Sl No	Constituency Name	Constituency Number	Member of Legislative Assembly	Political Party
1	Abhayapuri North	34	Abdul Hai Nagori	Indian National Congress
2	Abhayapuri South	35	Ananta Kumar Malo	All India United Democratic Front
3	Algapur	8	Nizam Uddin Choudhury	All India United Democratic Front
4	Amguri	103	Prodip Hazarika	Asom Gana Parishad
5	Badarpur	5	Jamal Uddin Ahmed	Indian National Congress
6	Baghbor	45	Sherman Ali Ahmed	Indian National Congress
7	Baithalangso	20	Mansing Rongpi	Indian National Congress
8	Barama	62	Maneswar Brahma	Bodoland People's Front
9	Barchalla	72	Ganesh Kumar Limbu	Bharatiya Janata Party
10	Barhampur	87	Prafulla Kumar Mahanta	Asom Gana Parishad
11	Barkhetry	60	Narayan Deka	Bharatiya Janata Party
12	Barkhola	14	Kishor Nath	Bharatiya Janata Party
13	Barpeta	43	Gunindra Nath Das	Asom Gana Parishad
14	Batadroba	84	Angoorlata Deka	Bharatiya Janata Party
15	Behali	77	Ranjit Dutta	Bharatiya Janata Party
16	Bhabanipur	41	Abul Kalam Azad	All India United Democratic Front
17	Bihpuria	109	Debananda Hazarika	Bharatiya Janata Party
18	Bijni	33	Kamal Singh Narzary	Bodoland People's Front
19	Bilasipara East	27	Ashok Kumar Singhi	Bharatiya Janata Party
20	Bilasipara West	26	Hafiz Bashir Ahmed	All India United Democratic Front
21	Biswanath	76	Promod Borthakur	Bharatiya Janata Party
22	Bokajan	17	Numal Momin	Bharatiya Janata Party
23	Bokakhat	93	Atul Bora	Asom Gana Parishad
24	Boko SC	48	Nandita Das	Indian National Congress
25	Bongaigaon	32	Phani Bhusan Choudhury	Asom Gana Parishad
26	Chabua	121	Binod Hazarika	Bharatiya Janata Party
27	Chapaguri	63	Thaneswar Basumatary	Bodoland People's Front
28	Chaygaon	49	Rekibuddin Ahmed	Indian National Congress
29	Chenga	47	Sukur Ali Ahmed	Indian National Congress
30	Dalgaon	68	Ilias Ali	Indian National Congress
31	Dergaon	97	Bhabendra Nath Bharali	Asom Gana Parishad
32	Dhakuakhana	112	Naba Kumar Doley	Bharatiya Janata Party
33	Dharmapur	61	Chandra Mohan Patowary	Bharatiya Janata Party
34	Dhekiajuli	71	Ashok Singhal	Bharatiya Janata Party
35	Dhemaji	113	Dr Ranuj Pegu	Bharatiya Janata Party
36	Dhing	83	Aminul Islam	All India United Democratic Front
37	Dholai	11	Parimal Suklabaidya	Bharatiya Janata Party
38	Dhubri	23	Najrul Hoque	All India United Democratic Front
39	Dibrugarh	116	Prasanta Phukan	Bharatiya Janata Party
40	Digboi	123	Suren Phukan	Bharatiya Janata Party
41	Diphu	19	Sum Ronghang	Bharatiya Janata Party
42	Dispur	52	Atul Bora	Bharatiya Janata Party
43	Doom dooma	125	Durga Bhumij	Indian National Congress
44	Dudhnai	36	Dipak Rabha	Bharatiya Janata Party
45	Duliajan	118	Terash Gowalla	Bharatiya Janata Party
46	Gauhati East	53	Siddhartha Bhattacharya	Bharatiya Janata Party
47	Gauhati West	54	Ramendra Narayan Kalita	Asom Gana Parishad
48	Gauripur	24	Nijanur Rahman	All India United Democratic Front
49	Goalpara East	37	Abdul Kalam Rasheed Alam	Indian National Congress
50	Goalpara West	38	Abdur Rasheed Mandal	Indian National Congress
51	Gohpur	78	Utpal Borah	Bharatiya Janata Party
52	Golaghat	95	Ajanta Neog	Indian National Congress
53	Golakganj	25	Ashwini Roy Sarkar	Bharatiya Janata Party
54	Gossaigaon	28	Majendra Narzary	Bodoland People's Front
55	Haflong	16	Bir Bhadra Hagjer	Bharatiya Janata Party
56	Hailakandi	6	Anwar Hussain Laskar	All India United Democratic Front
57	Hajo	55	Suman Haripriya	Bharatiya Janata Party
58	Hojai	91	Shiladitya Dev	Bharatiya Janata Party
59	Howraghat	18	Joyram Engleng	Bharatiya Janata Party
60	Jagiroad	79	Pijush Hazarika	Bharatiya Janata Party
61	Jaleswar	39	Sahab Uddin Ahmed	All India United Democratic Front
62	Jalukbari	51	Himanta Biswa Sarma	Bharatiya Janata Party
63	Jamunamukh	90	Abdur Rahim Ajmal	All India United Democratic Front
64	Jania	44	Abdul Khaleque	Indian National Congress
65	Jonai	114	Bhubon Pegu	Independent
66	Jorhat	98	Hitendra Nath Goswami	Bharatiya Janata Party
67	Kalaigaon	65	Maheswar Baro	Bodoland People's Front
68	Kaliabor	89	Keshab Mahanta	Asom Gana Parishad
69	Kamalpur	56	Satyabrat Kalita	Asom Gana Parishad
70	Karimganj North	3	Kamalakhya Dey Purkayastha	Indian National Congress
71	Karimganj South	4	Aziz Ahmed Khan	All India United Democratic Front
72	Katigorah	15	Amar Chand Jain	Bharatiya Janata Party
73	Katlicherra	7	Suzam Uddin Laskar	All India United Democratic Front
74	Khumtai	96	Mrinal Saikia	Bharatiya Janata Party
75	Kokrajhar East	30	Pramila Rani Brahma	Bodoland Peoples Front
76	Kokrajhar West	29	Rabiram Narzary	Bodoland People's Front
77	Laharighat	81	Dr. Nazrul Islam	Indian National Congress
78	Lahowal	117	Rituparna Baruah	Bharatiya Janata Party
79	Lakhimpur	111	Utpal Dutta	Asom Gana Parishad
80	Lakhipur	13	Rajdeep Goala	Indian National Congress
81	Lumding	92	Sibu Misra	Bharatiya Janata Party
82	Mahmara	105	Jogen Mohan	Bharatiya Janata Party
83	Majbat	70	Charan Boro	Bodoland People's Front
84	Majuli	99	Sarbananda Sonowal	Bharatiya Janata Party
85	Mangaldoi	67	Gurujyoti Das	Bharatiya Janata Party
86	Mankachar	21	Dr. Motiur Rohman Mondal	Indian National Congress
87	Margherita	124	Bhaskar Sharma	Bharatiya Janata Party
88	Mariani	101	Rupjyoti Kurmi	Indian National Congress
89	Marigaon	80	Rama Kanta Dewri	Bharatiya Janata Party
90	Moran	115	Chakradhar Gogoi	Bharatiya Janata Party
91	Naharkatia	120	Naren Sonowal	Asom Gana Parishad
92	Nalbari	59	Ashok Sarma	Bharatiya Janata Party
93	Naoboicha	110	Mamun Imdadul Haque Chawdhury	All India United Democratic Front
94	Nazira	104	Debabrata Saikia	Indian National Congress
95	Nowgong	86	Rupak Sarmah	Bharatiya Janata Party
96	Palasbari	50	Pranab Kalita	Bharatiya Janata Party
97	Panery	64	Kamali Basumatari	Bodoland People's Front
98	Patacharkuchi	42	Pabindra Deka	Asom Gana Parishad
99	Patharkandi	2	Krishnendu Paul	Bharatiya Janata Party
100	Raha	82	Dimbeswar Das	Bharatiya Janata Party
101	Rangapara	74	Pallab Lochan Das	Bharatiya Janata Party
102	Rangia	57	Bhabesh Kalita	Bharatiya Janata Party
103	Ratabari	1	Kripanath Mallah	Bharatiya Janata Party
104	Rupohihat	85	Nurul Huda	Indian National Congress
105	Sadiya	126	Bolin Chetia	Bharatiya Janata Party
106	Salmara South	22	Wazed Ali Choudhury	Indian National Congress
107	Samaguri	88	Rakibul Hussain	Indian National Congress
108	Sarukhetri	46	Jakir Hussain Sikdar	Indian National Congress
109	Sarupathar	94	Roselina Tirkey	Indian National Congress
110	Sibsagar	108	Pranab Kumar Gogoi	Indian National Congress
111	Sidli	31	Chandan Brahma	Bodoland People's Front
112	Silchar	9	Dilip Kumar Paul	Bharatiya Janata Party
113	Sipajhar	66	Binanda Kumar Saikia	Bharatiya Janata Party
114	Sonai	10	Aminul Haque Laskar	Bharatiya Janata Party
115	Sonari	106	Topon Kumar Gogoi	Bharatiya Janata Party
116	Sootea	75	Padma Hazarika	Bharatiya Janata Party
117	Sorbhog	40	Ranjit Kumar Das	Bharatiya Janata Party
118	Tamulpur	58	Emmanuel Mosahary	Bodoland People's Front
119	Teok	102	Renupoma Rajkhowa	Asom Gana Parishad
120	Tezpur	73	Brindaban Goswami	Asom Gana Parishad
121	Thowra	107	Kushal Dowari	Bharatiya Janata Party
122	Tingkhong	119	Bimal Bora	Bharatiya Janata Party
123	Tinsukia	122	Sanjoy Kishan	Bharatiya Janata Party
124	Titabar	100	Tarun Gogoi	Indian National Congress
125	Udalguri	69	Rihon Daimary	Bodoland People's Front
126	Udharbond	12	Mihir Kanti Shome	Bharatiya Janata Party

Share

Seat Share

  NDA (68.26%)

  UPA (20.63%)

  AIUDF (10.32%)

  IND (0.79%)

Vote Share

  NDA (41.90%)

  UPA (31.00%)

  AIUDF (13.00%)

  CPM (0.55%)

  CPI (0.22%)

  Others (13.33%)

See also

• 2016 elections in India
• 2019 Indian general election in Assam
• 2018 Assam Panchayat election
• 2011 Assam Legislative Assembly election
• Bangladeshis in India
• Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act, 1983
• National Register of Citizens of India

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External links

• Election Commission of India