1986 Spanish NATO membership referendum

A referendum on the Spanish NATO membership was held in Spain on Wednesday, 12 March 1986. Voters were asked whether they ratified the national Government's proposal for the country remaining a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which it had joined in 1982.[1]

1986 Spanish NATO membership referendum
"The Government considers it convenient, for national interests, for Spain to remain in the Atlantic Alliance, and agrees that such permanence be established in the following terms: (1) Non-incorporation into NATO's military structure; (2) Prohibition on the installation, storage or entry of nuclear weapons on Spanish territory; (3) Gradual reduction of the United States' military presence in Spain. In your view, should Spain continue to be a member of the Atlantic Alliance subject to the terms agreed by the national Government?"
Location	Spain
Date	12 March 1986
Results Votes % Y Yes 9,054,509 56.85% N No 6,872,421 43.15% Valid votes 15,926,930 92.35% Invalid or blank votes 1,319,522 7.65% Total votes 17,246,452 100.00% Registered voters/turnout 29,024,494 59.42%
Results by provinces   Y Yes     N No
Provincial results map for the referendum

The question asked was "The Government considers it convenient, for national interests, for Spain to remain in the Atlantic Alliance, and agrees that such permanence be established in the following terms: (1) Non-incorporation into NATO's military structure; (2) Prohibition on the installation, storage or entry of nuclear weapons on Spanish territory; (3) Gradual reduction of the United States' military presence in Spain. Question: In your view, should Spain continue to be a member of the Atlantic Alliance subject to the terms agreed by the national Government?" (Spanish: El Gobierno considera conveniente, para los intereses nacionales, que España permanezca en la Alianza Atlántica, y acuerda que dicha permanencia se establezca en los siguientes términos: 1.º La participación de España en la Alianza Atlántica no incluirá su incorporación a la estructura militar integrada. 2.º Se mantendrá la prohibición de instalar, almacenar o introducir armas nucleares en territorio español. 3.º Se procederá a la reducción progresiva de la presencia militar de los Estados Unidos en España. ¿Considera conveniente para España permanecer en la Alianza Atlántica en los términos acordados por el Gobierno de la Nación?).[2]

The referendum resulted in 56.9% of valid votes in favour of remaining within NATO on a turnout of 59.4%.[3][4]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading choice's colour. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the "Remain" and "Leave" choices in a given poll.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Remain	Leave	Invalid/ Blank	N	?	Lead	Notes
1986 referendum	12 Mar 1986	N/A	31.2	23.7	4.5	40.6	–	7.5
CIS[p 1]	10–11 Mar 1986	1,188	33.0	27.0	3.0	12.0	25.0	5.0	[lower-roman 1]
CIS[p 2]	7 Mar 1986	2,410	31.0	29.0	2.0	11.0	27.0	2.0	[lower-roman 1]
ECO/CIS[p 3]	3–4 Mar 1986	2,500	27.0	35.0	–	12.0	26.0	8.0	[lower-roman 1]
Alef/El País[p 4][p 5]	28 Feb–3 Mar 1986	3,000	26.2	36.2	37.6			10.0	[lower-roman 1]
Sofemasa/La Vanguardia[p 6]	25–28 Feb 1986	3,100	24.8	35.5	2.6	12.3	24.8	10.7	[lower-roman 1]
CIS[p 7]	27 Feb 1986	?	29.0	28.0	2.0	13.0	24.0	1.0	[lower-roman 1]
Alef/El País[p 8][p 9]	18–20 Feb 1986	1,525	25.2	34.2	3.6	19.1	17.9	9.0	[lower-roman 1]
CIS[p 10][p 11]	15–19 Feb 1986	2,500	27.0	31.0	2.0	12.0	29.0	4.0	[lower-roman 1]
CIS[p 12]	15 Feb 1986	?	25.0	32.0	–	12.0	32.0	7.0	[lower-roman 1]
CIS[p 13]	10 Feb 1986	?	25.0	27.0	–	15.0	33.0	2.0	[lower-roman 1]
ECO/CIS[p 14]	7–10 Feb 1986	?	30.0	38.0	–	13.0	19.0	8.0	[lower-roman 1]
Alef/El País[p 15][p 16]	2–4 Feb 1986	1,532	21.0	39.0	3.1	18.5	18.4	18.0	[lower-roman 1]
CIS[p 17]	18–25 Jan 1986	10,632	30.0	28.0	–	10.0	32.0	2.0	[lower-roman 2]
CIS[p 18]	1 Jan 1986	?	29.0	27.0	–	12.0	32.0	2.0	[lower-roman 2]
CIS[p 19]	13–16 Dec 1985	2,457	32.0	27.0	–	10.0	31.0	5.0	[lower-roman 2]
CIS[p 20]	1 Oct 1985	1,232	30.0	25.0	–	9.0	36.0	5.0	[lower-roman 2]
CIS[p 21]	17–20 Jul 1985	2,479	26.0	34.0	–	7.0	33.0	8.0	[lower-roman 2]
CIS[p 22]	7–11 Jun 1985	3,435	24.0	34.0	–	9.0	33.0	10.0	[lower-roman 2]
CIS[p 23]	10 Sep 1984	?	25.0	47.0	–	1.0	27.0	22.0	[lower-roman 3]
			31.0	42.0	–	9.0	18.0	11.0	[lower-roman 4]
			19.0	57.0	–	9.0	15.0	38.0	[lower-roman 5]
CIS[p 24]	1 Sep 1984	2,466	22.0	35.0	–	7.0	36.0	13.0	[lower-roman 3]
			22.0	34.0	–	7.0	37.0	12.0	[lower-roman 4]
			15.0	44.0	–	7.0	34.0	29.0	[lower-roman 5]
CIS[p 25]	25–28 Apr 1984	2,474	20.0	43.0	–	6.0	31.0	23.0	[lower-roman 3]
			19.0	46.0	–	7.0	29.0	27.0	[lower-roman 4]
			11.0	54.0	–	6.0	29.0	43.0	[lower-roman 5]
CIS[p 26]	1 Jan 1984	2,495	19.4	40.9	–	8.4	31.3	21.5	[lower-roman 3]
			21.6	38.5	–	8.5	31.5	16.9	[lower-roman 4]
			13.6	50.3	–	7.6	28.4	36.7	[lower-roman 5]
CIS[p 27]	9–13 Nov 1983	2,476	15.0	44.0	–	9.0	32.0	29.0	[lower-roman 6]
CIS[p 28]	1 Mar 1983	2,488	12.6	49.2	–	8.1	30.2	36.6	[lower-roman 6]
CIS[p 29]	9–11 Sep 1981	1,193	12.0	37.0	–	11.0	40.0	25.0	[lower-roman 7]

Results

Overall

Question

The Government considers it convenient, for national interests, for Spain to remain in the Atlantic Alliance, and agrees that such permanence be established in the following terms: (1) Non-incorporation into NATO's military structure; (2) Prohibition on the installation, storage or entry of nuclear weapons on Spanish territory; (3) Gradual reduction of the United States' military presence in Spain. In your view, should Spain continue to be a member of the Atlantic Alliance subject to the terms agreed by the national Government?

Choice	Votes	%
Yes	9,054,509	56.85
No	6,872,421	43.15
Valid votes	15,926,930	92.35
Invalid or blank votes	1,319,522	7.65
Total votes	17,246,452	100.00
Registered voters and turnout	29,024,494	59.42
Source: Ministry of the Interior[5]

Results by region

Region		Electorate	Turnout	Yes		No
				Votes	%	Votes	%
	Andalusia	4,810,221	61.55	1,868,623	67.38	904,635	32.62
	Aragon	952,361	60.17	318,640	61.72	197,608	38.28
	Asturias	907,599	56.36	273,074	57.28	203,622	42.72
	Balearic Islands	524,710	52.03	151,881	61.11	96,663	38.89
	Basque Country	1,644,108	65.41	336,518	32.45	700,539	67.55
	Canary Islands	1,003,385	55.39	242,015	46.31	280,639	53.69
	Cantabria	402,339	59.64	140,251	63.96	79,031	36.04
	Castile and León	2,071,409	56.44	627,633	61.54	392,251	38.46
	Castilla–La Mancha	1,283,563	58.30	451,729	68.42	208,484	31.58
	Catalonia	4,614,731	62.80	1,263,416	46.28	1,466,639	53.72
	Extremadura	823,281	61.96	305,219	65.79	158,723	34.21
	Galicia	2,220,686	38.51	465,103	59.10	321,809	40.90
	La Rioja	202,523	59.97	69,405	63.92	39,174	36.08
	Madrid	3,591,044	60.91	1,135,636	56.77	864,700	43.23
	Murcia	723,287	61.39	254,572	62.08	155,469	37.92
	Navarre	396,841	62.64	99,815	43.28	130,828	56.72
	Valencian Community	2,776,354	66.33	1,027,648	60.73	664,465	39.27
	Total	29,024,494	59.42	9,054,509	56.85	6,872,421	43.15
Sources[5]

Notes

1. Respondents were asked on how they would vote based on the actual referendum question: "In your view, should Spain continue to be a member of the Atlantic Alliance subject to the terms agreed by the national Government?"
2. Respondents were asked "If at the time of holding the referendum, the Government had secured a reduction of the American bases in Spain, would you vote For or Against of Spain remaining a NATO member outside the Military Structure?"
3. Respondents were asked "If the NATO referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote For or Against Spain leaving NATO completely?" As permanence within NATO was asked conversely to other questions, "For" and "Against" results have been assigned to Leave and Remain, respectively, to maintain consistency.
4. Respondents were asked "If the NATO referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote For or Against Spain remaining a NATO member but outside the Military Structure?"
5. Respondents were asked "If the NATO referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote For or Against Spain joining NATO Military Structure?"
6. Respondents were asked "If a referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote For or Against a definitive incorporation to NATO?"
7. Respondents were asked "If there were a referendum on the entry of Spain into NATO, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For" and "Against".

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Referéndum Alianza Atlántica (Estudio nº 1.521. Marzo 1986)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 March 1986.
2. "Referéndum Alianza Atlántica. Marzo - 86 (Estudio nº 1.520)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 March 1986.
3. "Estudio ECO 1.519 (Marzo 1986)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 4 March 1986.
4. "Se mantiene estable la mayoría favorable al 'no'". El País (in Spanish). 6 March 1986.
5. "Ficha técnica". El País (in Spanish). 6 March 1986.
6. "Apretado margen para una decisión histórica". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 March 1986.
7. "Referéndum OTAN (Estudio nº 1.514. 27 de Febrero de 1986)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 27 February 1986.
8. "Disminuye la diferencia entre el 'sí' y el 'no' a la permanencia en la OTAN". El País (in Spanish). 23 February 1986.
9. "Ficha técnica del sondeo". El País (in Spanish). 23 February 1986.
10. "Estudio 1.511 (Febrero de 1986)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 23 February 1986.
11. "El CIS prevé un 27 % de síes y un 31 % de noes en el referéndum OTAN". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 23 February 1986.
12. "Estudio nº 1.510 (Febrero 1986)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 15 February 1986.
13. "Referéndum Alianza Atlántica (Estudio nº 1.509)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 10 February 1986.
14. "Post-debate parlamentario. Febrero '86 (Febrero 1986)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 10 February 1986.
15. "Serias probabilidades de que el Gobierno pierda el referéndum". El País (in Spanish). 9 February 1986.
16. "Ficha técnica del sondeo". El País (in Spanish). 9 February 1986.
17. "Estudio sobre la OTAN (Enero 1986. Estudio 1502)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 25 January 1986.
18. ""Barómetro enero 1986". Estudio C.I.S. nº 1.501 (Enero 1986)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1986.
19. "Estudio sobre la OTAN (Diciembre 85. Estudio 1498)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 16 December 1985.
20. "Barómetro. Estudio C.I.S. nº 1.478 (Octubre 1985)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 October 1985.
21. "Barómetro. Estudio C.I.S. nº 1471 (Julio 1985)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 20 July 1985.
22. "Cuestiones de política exterior. Estudio C.I.S. 1463 (Junio 1985)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 June 1985.
23. "Banco de Datos del CIS". CIS (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 June 2018.
24. "Barómetro septiembre 1984 (Estudio nº 1.428. Septiembre 1984)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 September 1984.
25. "Estudio 1.411" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 28 April 1984.
26. "Política exterior (II) (Estudio nº 1.381. Enero 1984)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1984.
27. "Estudio 1.371" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 13 November 1983.
28. "Barómetro de marzo (Estudio nº 1.344. Marzo 1983)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 March 1983.
29. "Estudio nº 1.285. Barómetro de Opinión Pública (Septiembre, 1981)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 September 1981.

Other

1. Nohlen, D & Stöver, P (2010) Elections in Europe: A data handbook, p1817 ISBN 978-3-8329-5609-7
2. Rodrigo Luelmo, Francisco José (8 July 2016). "The accession of Spain to NATO" (PDF). CVCE.eu by University of Luxembourg. Retrieved 1 September 2019. Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
3. "Spain, 12 March 1986: Permanence within NATO". sudd.ch (in German). Direct Democracy. Retrieved 1 September 2019.
4. "Referéndum consultivo en relación con la Alianza Atlántica". congreso.es (in Spanish). Congress of Deputies. Retrieved 1 September 2019.
5. "Electoral Results Consultation. Referendum. March 1986. National totals". infoelectoral.mir.es (in Spanish). Ministry of the Interior. Retrieved 24 September 2017.

Further reading

• Lawrence Leduc, The Politics of Direct Democracy. Referendums in Global Perspective (Broadview Press, 2003), p. 82.
• Anthony Gooch, 'A Surrealistic Referendum: Spain and NATO', Government and Opposition 21(3), pp. 300–16.