Next Tasmanian state election

The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held in or before 2022 to elect all 25 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

Next Tasmanian state election
March 2022
All 25 seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Peter Gutwein Rebecca White Cassy O'Connor
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 20 January 2020 17 March 2017 12 June 2015
Leader's seat Bass Lyons Clark
Last election 13 seats; 50.26% 10 seats; 32.63% 2 seats; 10.30%
Current seats 13 seats 9 seats 2 seats
Seats needed 4 11
Incumbent Premier

Peter Gutwein
Liberal

The incumbent Liberal government, currently led by Premier of Tasmania Peter Gutwein, will attempt to win a third term against the Labor opposition, currently led by the Tasmanian Opposition Leader, Rebecca White. Also contesting the election will be the Greens, currently led by Cassy O'Connor.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat single-member district Legislative Council use full-preference instant-runoff voting, with election dates staggered and conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election. The writs for the 2018 Tasmanian state election were returned on 15 March 2018.[1] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[2] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[3] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,[4] meaning the election must take place by 14 May 2022.

Background
Main article: 2018 Tasmanian state election

The previous election in 2018 saw the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman retain government, winning 13 seats compared to the Labor Party's 10 seats and the Greens with 2. Despite holding a one-seat majority, the Liberal Government's choice for Speaker was rejected by the Assembly shortly after the new parliament began sitting in May 2018.[5] Liberal member Sue Hickey was elected to the Speakership with the support of Labor and the Greens.[5] Hickey revealed she would vote independently on government bills though she has said she will "always support the Liberal Government" on confidence and supply.[5][6]

Polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[7]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Firm Political parties
LIB ALP GRN IND/OTH
March 2020 EMRS[8] 43% 34% 12% 11%
20 January 2020 Peter Gutwein becomes leader of the Liberal Party and Premier of Tasmania
December 2019 EMRS[9] 44% 32% 13% 12%
November 2019 EMRS[10] 47% 29% 13% 11%
July 2019 EMRS[11] 38% 30% 16% 16%
May 2019 EMRS[12] 38% 34% 13% 15%
March 2019 EMRS[11] 38% 34% 14% 14%
20 December 2018 EMRS[13] 39% 35% 14% 12%
31 August 2018 EMRS[14] 36% 34% 16% 14%
10 May 2018 EMRS[15] 47% 30% 14% 8%
2018 election 50.3% 32.6% 10.3% 4.5%
27 February 2018 EMRS[16] 46% 34% 12% 7%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
Preferred Premier polling^
Liberal
Hodgman		 Labor
White
July 2019 40% 45%
May 2019 41% 43%
March 2019 41% 44%
December 2018 40% 46%
August 2018 36% 48%
May 2018 47% 41%
2018 election
January 2018 48% 41%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
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    References
    1. http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/tpl/Elections/e2018.html
    2. Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
    3. Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
    4. Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
    5. "New Speaker Sue Hickey distances herself from Liberal Party in dramatic first day of Parliament". ABC News. 1 May 2018.
    6. "Speaker Sue Hickey departs from Liberal script to call for Glenorchy Council's rescue". ABC News. 22 May 2018.
    7. EMRS.com.au website.
    8. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll March 2020" (PDF). EMRS.
    9. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll December 2018" (PDF). EMRS. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
    11. "State Voting Intentions July 2019" (PDF). emrs.com.au. 6 August 2019.
    13. www.emrs.com.au (PDF) https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-December-2018.pdf. Retrieved 26 December 2018. Missing or empty |title= (help)
    14. "State Voting Intentions August 2018" (PDF). emrs.com.au. 4 September 2018.
    15. "State Voting Intentions May 2018" (PDF). 17 May 2018.
    16. "Tasmania 2018: EMRS Has It A Little Closer Than ReachTEL". Dr. Kevin Bonham's Blog. 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
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