1999 Portuguese legislative election

The Portuguese legislative election of 1999 took place on 10 October. The Socialist Party was aiming a second term under the lead of António Guterres, in the end the Socialists won the election, but missed what would be an historical absolute majority for the party by just one MP.

1999 Portuguese legislative election

10 October 1999
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly 116 seats needed for a majority
Registered	8,864,604 0.5%
Turnout	5,415,102 (61.1%) 5.2 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader António Guterres José Manuel Barroso Carlos Carvalhas Party PS PSD PCP Alliance CDU Leader since 23 February 1992 27 May 1999 5 December 1992 Leader's seat Castelo Branco[1] Lisbon[2] Lisbon[3] Last election 112 seats, 43.8% 88 seats, 34.1% 15 seats, 8.6% Seats won 115 81 17 Seat change 3 7 2 Popular vote 2,385,922 1,750,158 487,058 Percentage 44.1% 32.3% 9.0% Swing 0.3 pp 1.8 pp 0.4 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Paulo Portas Francisco Louçã Party CDS–PP BE Leader since 22 March 1998 24 March 1999 Leader's seat Aveiro[4] Lisbon[5] Last election 15 seats, 9.0% New party Seats won 15 2 Seat change 0 N/A Popular vote 451,643 132,333 Percentage 8.3% 2.4% Swing 0.7 pp N/A
Results by district or autonomous region.
Prime Minister before election António Guterres PS Elected Prime Minister António Guterres PS

The Social Democratic Party under the lead of José Manuel Durão Barroso was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before. The Democratic Unity Coalition achieved an important climb in the scorecard, against those who predicted its irreversible decline after the end of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties became represented in the parliament after electing two MPs. Turnout in this election was very low, only being surpassed in 2009 and 2011 when turnout was just less than 60%.

Voter turnout reached only 61% of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[6]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[7] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[8]

Parties

The major parties involved were listed with their leaders:

• Left Bloc (BE), Francisco Louçã
• Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Carlos Carvalhas
• Socialist Party (PS), António Guterres
• Social Democratic Party (PPD/PSD), José Manuel Durão Barroso
• People's Party (CDS–PP), Paulo Portas

António Guterres, leader of the Socialist Party, was nominated Prime Minister for the second time, and missed the absolute majority by one MP, achieving exactly half of the 230 MPs.

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Refs
	PS	« Portugal em boas mãos »	"Portugal in good hands"	[9]
	PSD	« Vamos cumprir »	"We will deliver"	[10]
	CDS–PP	« Alternativa'99 »	"Alternative'99"	[11]
	CDU	« Para que não fique tudo na mesma »	"So that everything will not stay the same"	[12]
	BE	« É tempo de ser exigente »	"It's time to be demanding"	[13]

Candidates' debates

1999 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-inviteee
			PS Guterres	PSD Barroso	CDU Carvalhas	CDS–PP Portas	Refs
16 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	P	N	N	[14]
17 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	N	P	P	[14]
19 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	P	N	P	[14]
20 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	N	P	N	[14]
21 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	N	N	P	[14]
22 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	P	P	N	[14]
23 Sep	RTP1	Judite de Sousa	P	P	P	P	[15]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date	Organisers	Polling firm/Link
			PS	PSD	CDU	CDS–PP	Notes
16 Sep	SIC	SIC	57	25	N/A	N/A	18% Neither

Opinion polling

See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed are currently represented in parliament. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

Date Released	Polling Firm	PS	PSD	CDU	CDS-PP	BE	Others	Lead
10 Oct 1999	Leg. Election	44.1 115 seats	32.3 81 seats	9.0 17 seats	8.3 15 seats	2.4 2 seats	3.9 0 seats	11.8
10 Oct	RTP/Universidade Católica	46.0	30.3	8.5	7.5	2.5	5.2	15.7
10 Oct	SIC/Seeds	46.3	31.5	9.8	8.0	2.8	1.6	14.8
10 Oct	TVI/Intercampus	46.3	28.6	9.5	8.3	3.2	4.1	17.7
Exit polls
2 Oct	Euroexpansão	50.0	32.0	6.0	8.0	2.0	2.0	18.0
1 Oct	Seeds	47.0	32.0	8.0	7.0	1.0	5.0	15.0
1 Oct	Metris	48.0	31.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	6.0	17.0
1 Oct	Universidade Católica	47.2	30.0	7.9	7.2	2.8	4.9	17.2
30 Sep	Marktest	46.2	30.7	10.6	4.2	2.8	5.5	15.5
30 Sep	Aximage	49.0	33.0	7.0	6.0	1.0	4.0	16.0
29 Jul	Universidade Católica	52.0	31.6	6.9	6.2	1.9	1.4	20.4
1999
1 Oct 1995	Leg. Election	43.8 112 seats	34.1 88 seats	8.6 15 seats	9.1 15 seats	Did not exist	4.4 0 seats	9.7

National summary of votes and seats

 Summary of the 10 October 1999 Assembly of the Republic elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
					1995	1999	±	%	±
	Socialist	2,385,922	44.06	0.3	112	115	3	50.00	1.3	1.13
	Social Democratic	1,750,158	32.32	1.8	88	81	7	35.22	3.1	1.09
	Unitary Democratic Coalition^[A]	487,058	8.99	0.4	15	17	2	7.39	0.9	0.82
	People's	451,643	8.34	0.7	15	15	0	6.52	0.0	0.78
	Left Bloc	132,333	2.44	N/A	N/A	2	N/A	0.87	N/A	0.36
	Portuguese Workers' Communist	40,006	0.74	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Earth	19,938	0.37	0.3	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	People's Monarchist	16,522	0.31	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	National Solidarity	11,488	0.21	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Humanist	7,346	0.14	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	Workers Party of Socialist Unity	4,104	0.08	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Democratic Party of the Atlantic^[B]	438	0.01	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
Total valid		5,306,956	98.00	0.1	230	230	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		56,964	1.05	0.3
Invalid ballots		51,230	0.95	0.1
Total (turnout 61.09%)		5,415,102	100.00	5.2
^A Portuguese Communist Party (15 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[16] ^B Democratic Party of the Atlantic electoral list only in Azores.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Vote share PS   44.06% PSD   32.32% CDU   8.99% CDS-PP   8.34% BE   2.44% PCTP/MRPP   0.74% Others   1.12% Blank/Invalid   2.00%

Parliamentary seats PS   50.00% PSD   35.22% CDU   7.39% CDS-PP   6.52% BE   0.87%

Distribution by constituency

 Results of the 1999 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency

Constituency	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	Total S
	PS		PSD		CDU		CDS–PP		BE
Azores	53.3	3	35.8	2	1.7	-	5.6	-	1.1	-	5
Aveiro	40.2	7	38.3	6	3.5	-	13.6	2	1.3	-	15
Beja	46.7	2	14.5	-	28.3	1	3.9	-	1.6	-	3
Braga	44.3	8	36.7	7	5.4	1	8.9	1	1.2	-	17
Bragança	39.7	2	45.1	2	2.6	-	8.7	-	0.8	-	4
Castelo Branco	51.6	3	32.0	2	5.3	-	6.3	-	1.2	-	5
Coimbra	47.2	6	35.2	4	6.1	-	6.0	-	2.0	-	10
EvoraÉvora	45.7	2	18.7	1	24.6	1	5.1	-	1.5	-	4
Faro	48.4	5	29.5	3	8.3	-	7.3	-	2.3	-	8
Guarda	43.4	2	39.2	2	3.2	-	9.8	-	1.1	-	4
Leiria	36.8	4	42.6	5	5.3	-	9.9	1	1.7	-	10
Lisbon	42.7	23	27.3	14	12.3	6	8.5	4	4.9	2	49
Madeira	35.1	2	46.2	3	2.8	-	10.9	-	1.2	-	5
Portalegre	51.2	2	22.5	1	15.0	-	5.9	-	1.2	-	3
Porto	48.0	19	32.7	13	6.2	2	7.5	3	2.3	-	37
Santarém	45.5	5	30.2	3	10.1	1	8.1	1	2.0	-	10
Setúbal	43.7	8	18.0	3	24.8	5	5.6	1	3.5	-	17
Viana do Castelo	40.2	3	35.8	2	5.0	-	14.0	1	1.2	-	6
Vila Real	40.8	2	45.5	3	2.4	-	6.8	-	0.8	-	5
Viseu	38.1	4	44.3	4	2.2	-	10.5	1	1.2	-	9
zEurope	55.4	2	24.7	-	5.3	-	3.2	-	0.6	-	2
zRest of the World	39.8	1	49.5	1	1.7	-	3.5	-	0.4	-	2
Total	44.1	115	32.3	81	9.0	17	8.3	15	2.4	2	230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

• 
  Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown)
• 
  Most voted political force by municipality.

References

1. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
2. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
3. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
4. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
5. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
6. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
7. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
8. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
9. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – EVORA – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
10. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – PSD – DURÃO BARROSO". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
11. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
12. "PCP Legislativas 1999". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
13. "Programa Legislativas 1999". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
14. "Como Guterres mudou os debates para sempre e as arrobas chegaram ao estrelato". Expresso (in Portuguese). 9 September 2015. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
15. "Operação Legislativas no ar". Público (in Portuguese). 8 September 1999. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
16. "Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic". Archived from the original on 2012-07-16. Retrieved 2012-09-02.

External links

• Preliminary results of the 1999 election
• Comissão Nacional de Eleições
• Centro de Estudos do Pensamento Político

See also

• Politics of Portugal
• List of political parties in Portugal
• Elections in Portugal