1995 Portuguese legislative election

The Portuguese legislative election of 1995 took place on 1 October. The Socialist Party defeated the Social Democratic Party under the lead of António Guterres, elected three years before, but missed the absolute majority by 4 MPs.

1995 Portuguese legislative election

1 October 1995
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly 116 seats needed for a majority
Registered	8,906,608 5.3%
Turnout	5,904,854 (66.3%) 1.5 pp
First party Second party   Leader António Guterres Fernando Nogueira Party PS PSD Leader since 23 February 1992 19 February 1995 Leader's seat Castelo Branco[1] Porto[2] Last election 72 seats, 29.1% 135 seats, 50.6% Seats won 112 88 Seat change 40 47 Popular vote 2,583,755 2,014,589 Percentage 43.8% 34.1% Swing 14.7 pp 16.5 pp   Third party Fourth party   Leader Manuel Monteiro Carlos Carvalhas Party CDS–PP PCP Alliance CDU Leader since 22 March 1992 5 December 1992 Leader's seat Braga[3] Lisbon[4] Last election 5 seats, 4.4% 17 seats, 8.8% Seats won 15 15 Seat change 10 2 Popular vote 534,470 506,157 Percentage 9.1% 8.6% Swing 4.7 pp 0.2 pp
Results by district or autonomous region.
Prime Minister before election Aníbal Cavaco Silva PSD Elected Prime Minister António Guterres PS

The Social Democratic party, under the lead of Fernando Nogueira, was weakened by the end of the 10-year cycle of governments led by Cavaco Silva. The two minor parties, the People's Party and the Democratic Unity Coalition achieved only 15 MPs each, a thing that marked the growing bi-polarization of the Portuguese political map. Although turnout, in percentage point, was lower than the previous election in 1991, almost 6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, the highest figure since 1980.

Voter turnout stood at 66.3%, the lowest until then.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[5]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[6] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[7]

Parties

The major parties involved were listed with their leaders:

• Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU), Carlos Carvalhas
• Socialist Party (PS), António Guterres
• Social Democratic Party (PSD), Fernando Nogueira
• People's Party (CDS–PP), Manuel Monteiro

António Guterres, leader of the Socialist Party, was nominated Prime Minister for the first time, becoming the first socialist Prime Minister in 10 years.

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Refs
	PSD	« Mais e melhor para Portugal »	"More and better for Portugal"	[8]
	PS	« A nova maioria »	"The new majority."	[9]
	CDU	« Vamos dar a volta a isto »	"Let's turn this around"	[10]
	CDS–PP	« Vamos dar lugar a Portugal »	"Let's make way for Portugal"	[11]

Candidates' debates

The 1995 debates, between PSD leader Fernando Nogueira and PS leader António Guterres, were the first general election debates since the 1985 elections.

1995 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-inviteee
			PSD Nogueira	PS Guterres	Refs
6 Sep	RTP1	José Eduardo Moniz Maria Elisa Domingues	P	P	[12]
13 Sep	SIC	Miguel Sousa Tavares Margarida Marante	P	P	[12]

Opinion Polling

See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed are currently represented in parliament. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1991 and 1995 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.
  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Date Released	Polling Firm	PSD	PS	CDU	CDS-PP	Others	Lead
1 Oct 1995	Leg. Election	34.1 88 seats	43.8 112 seats	8.6 15 seats	9.1 15 seats	4.4 0 seats	9.7
1 Oct	RTP/Euroteste	33.4	40.3	12.4	9.9	4.0	6.9
1 Oct	SIC/Metris	34.5	42.2	9.0	9.2	5.1	7.7
1 Oct	TVI/Universidade Católica	35.5	41.0	8.0	10.0	5.5	5.5
Exit polls
29 Sep	Norma	40.3	35.2	9.7	9.3	5.5	5.1
23 Sep	Metris	32.0	42.0	10.0	8.0	8.0	10.0
23 Sep	Euroteste	35.0	39.0	9.0	10.0	7.0	4.0
23 Sep	Euroexpansão	32.7	44.5	11.5	6.9	4.4	11.8
23 Sep	Universidade Católica	35.0	40.0	9.0	10.0	6.0	5.0
22 Sep	IPSOS	35.0	41.0	9.0	9.0	6.0	6.0
21 Sep	Marktest	33.0	42.0	10.0	9.0	6.0	9.0
16 Sep	Compta	39.0	40.0	12.0	8.0	1.0	1.0
1995
6 Oct 1991	Leg. Election	50.6 135 seats	29.1 72 seats	8.8 17 seats	4.4 5 seats	7.1 1 seats	21.5

National summary of votes and seats

 Summary of the 1 October 1995 Assembly of the Republic elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
					1991	1995	±	%	±
	Socialist	2,583,755	43.76	14.7	72	112	40	48.70	17.4	1.11
	Social Democratic	2,014,589	34.12	16.5	135	88	47	38.26	20.4	1.12
	People's^[A]	534,470	9.05	4.7	5	15	10	6.52	4.3	0.72
	Democratic Unity Coalition^[B]	506,157	8.57	0.2	17	15	2	6.52	0.9	0.76
	Portuguese Workers' Communist	41,137	0.70	0.2	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Revolutionary Socialist	37,638	0.64	0.5	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	People's Democratic Union	33,876	0.57	0.5	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	National Solidarity	12,613	0.21	1.5	1	0	1	0.00	0.4	0.0
	Party of the People	8,279	0.14	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	Earth	8,235	0.14	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	Earth / People's Monarchist	5,932	0.10	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	Unity Movement for Workers	2,544	0.04	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	Democratic Party of the Atlantic	2,536	0.04	0.2	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
Total valid		5,791,761	98.08	0.0	230	230	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		45,793	0.78	0.0
Invalid ballots		67,300	1.14	0.0
Total (turnout 66.30%)		5,904,854	100.00	1.5
^A In 1993, the name "People's Party" was added to the party's name. ^B Portuguese Communist Party (13 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[13]
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Vote share PS   43.76% PSD   34.12% CDS-PP   9.05% CDU   8.57% PCTP/MRPP   0.70% PSR   0.64% UDP   0.57% Others   0.67% Blank/Invalid   1.92%

Parliamentary seats PS   48.70% PSD   38.26% CDS-PP   6.52% CDU   6.52%

Distribution by constituency

 Results of the 1995 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the
Republic by constituency

Constituency	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	Total S
	PS		PSD		CDS–PP		CDU
Azores	37.6	2	47.8	3	9.4	-	1.8	-	5
Aveiro	40.2	6	41.2	6	12.6	2	2.7	-	14
Beja	45.8	2	15.7	1	3.6	-	29.2	1	4
Braga	42.9	8	38.2	7	10.7	1	4.5	-	16
Bragança	40.3	2	44.8	2	9.4	-	1.9	-	4
Castelo Branco	53.2	3	32.1	2	7.2	-	5.3	-	5
Coimbra	49.1	6	34.5	4	7.1	-	5.1	-	10
EvoraÉvora	42.6	2	20.2	1	5.2	-	26.9	1	4
Faro	49.6	5	29.2	3	8.3	-	7.8	-	8
Guarda	43.7	2	39.9	2	9.9	-	2.3	-	4
Leiria	36.7	4	43.3	5	11.4	1	4.5	-	10
Lisbon	44.3	24	29.0	15	9.4	5	12.0	6	50
Madeira	32.0	2	46.1	3	12.9	-	1.3	-	5
Portalegre	50.5	2	23.4	1	6.3	-	14.0	-	3
Porto	46.7	18	36.4	14	7.8	3	6.0	2	37
Santarém	45.8	5	31.0	3	8.7	1	9.5	1	10
Setúbal	44.9	9	18.4	3	7.2	1	23.8	4	17
Viana do Castelo	38.8	3	42.1	3	11.3	-	4.6	-	6
Vila Real	40.0	2	46.0	3	7.8	-	1.9	-	5
Viseu	38.4	4	44.3	4	11.5	1	1.8	-	9
zEurope	35.1	1	33.8	1	4.4	-	6.4	-	2
zRest of the World	12.8	-	69.3	2	3.8	-	1.2	-	2
Total	43.8	112	34.1	88	9.1	15	8.6	15	230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

• 
  Most voted political force by municipality.

References

1. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
2. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
3. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
4. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
5. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
6. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
7. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
8. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
9. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
10. "PCP – 1995". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
11. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
12. "O que mudam os debates na TV". Correio da Manhã (in Portuguese). 4 September 2009. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
13. "Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic". Archived from the original on 2012-07-16. Retrieved 2012-09-02.

External links

• Comissão Nacional de Eleições
• Centro de Estudos do Pensamento Político

See also

• Politics of Portugal
• List of political parties in Portugal
• Elections in Portugal