Failure bias

Failure bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that failed to make it past some selection process and overlooking those that did, typically because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. It is a form of selection bias.

In several of these cases, one measure of success is precisely the lack of public awareness of people or things that are undergoing such selection process, which means that, in the possibility that there is at least one agent who is interested in the success of the people or things that are going through the selection process, the agent(s) will be interested into keeping the subject out of the public eye, and thus, to raise the likelihood of the failure bias happening

Examples

Espionage
Most crimes fit into this category
Censorship

gollark: Did you know? I find it marginally funny that when I make a point or have an opinion on something, people disagree and when I explain it they call me stupid and tell me to shut up even though I have made a valid point and try and present the idea that I am arrogant and trying to act smart. I point out that I have make no claim to being smart and also point out flaws in their methods, they ignore all the things I have said and just remember everything that has occurred as a reason to call me stupid, arrogant and lacking in social skills.

gollark: This is, of course, how time works.

gollark: * BAITED

gollark: "Wow, you're sending over ships, thanks... Oh, free bullets... hey, could you fire them a bit slower, they're doing some damage... guys?"

gollark: https://www.sbert.net/docs/

Biases
Cognitive biases	Actor–observer Acquiescence Ambiguity Anchoring Attentional Attribution Authority Automation Belief Blind spot Choice-supportive Confirmation Compassion fade Congruence Courtesy Cultural Distinction Dunning–Kruger Egocentric Emotional Extrinsic incentives Fading affect Framing Correspondence Halo effect Hindsight Horn effect Hostile attribution Impact Implicit In-group Mere-exposure effect Negativity Normalcy Omission Optimism Out-group homogeneity Outcome Overton window Precision Present Pro-innovation Response Restraint Self-serving Social comparison Status quo Time-saving Trait ascription von Restorff effect Zero-risk In animals
Statistical biases	Estimator Forecast Healthy user Information Psychological Lead time Length time Non-response Observer Omitted-variable Participation Recall Sampling Selection Self-selection Social desirability Spectrum Survivorship Systematic error Systemic Verification Wet
Other biases	Academic Funding FUTON Inductive Infrastructure Inherent In education Media False balance Vietnam War Norway South Asia Sweden United States Arab–Israeli conflict Ukraine Net Political bias Publication Reporting White hat
Bias reduction	Cognitive bias mitigation Debiasing Heuristics in judgment and decision-making
Lists: General · Memory

Failure bias

Examples

See also