Next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

The Next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election will be held no later than August–November 2021 to elect the 8th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.[1] The current government is a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig.

Next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election
No later than August–November 2021
All 71 seats in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (plus overhang and leveling seats)
36+ seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Manuela Schwesig Leif-Erik Holm
Party SPD AfD
Leader's seat – –[lower-alpha 1]
Last election 26 seats, 30.6% 18 seats, 20.8%
 
Leader Vincent Kokert Torsten Koplin &
Wenke Brüdgam
Party CDU Left
Leader's seat –[lower-alpha 2] List
–
Last election 16 seats, 19.0% 11 seats, 13.2%
Incumbent Minister-President

Manuela Schwesig
SPD

Election date

The Landtag is elected for a period of five years in accordance with Article 27 of the Constitution of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. An election may be held between 58 and 61 months after the first sitting of the previous Landtag. As the 7th Landtag first sat on 4 October 2016, the election must be held between 4 August to 4 November 2021. It must take place on a Sunday.[2]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 36 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 35 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 71 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Landtag.[1]

Background
Main article: 2016 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

In the previous election held on 4 September 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 30.6% of the vote, a loss of 5.0 percentage points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, placing second with 20.8%. The CDU won 19.0%, a loss of 4.0 points, while The Left won 13.2%, a loss of 5.2 points.

The SPD–CDU coalition which had governed since 2006 retained its majority and was renewed for a third term.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2016 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Manuela Schwesig 30.6%
26 / 71
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland		 National conservatism Leif-Erik Holm 20.8%
18 / 71
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Vincent Kokert 18.0%
16 / 71
Linke The Left
Die Linke		 Democratic socialism Torsten Koplin
Wenke Brüdgam		 13.2%
11 / 71

Opinion polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 SPD AfD CDU Linke Grüne FDP Others Lead
Infratest dimap 3–6 Jun 2020 1,004 24 15 29 13 10 4 5 5
Forsa 2–10 Jan 2020 1,002 19 19 20 14 13 5 10 1
Forsa 18–23 Sep 2019 1,002 22 20 21 12 12 5 8 1
Forsa 18–23 Sep 2019 1,007 22 18 22 16 10 4 8 Tie
Forsa 24 May–28 Jun 2018 1,002 25 22 18 16 8 4 7 3
Forsa 2–11 Jan 2018 1,001 28 19 20 15 5 5 8 8
INSA 30 Jun–14 Jul 2017 1,608 31.5 20.5 22.0 13.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 9.5
Forsa 9–16 Jan 2017 1,002 32 18 21 13 4 4 8 11
2016 state election 4 Sep 2016 – 30.6 20.8 18.0 13.2 4.8 3.0 5.6 9.8

Notes
  1. Leif-Erik Holm was elected on the AfD list in the 2016 election, but resigned from the Landtag in November 2017.
  2. Vincent Kekort was elected on the CDU list in the 2016 election, but resigned from the Landtag in March 2020.
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References
  1. "Landtag MV". Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag.
  2. "Landtagswahl 2021 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern". State Office for Internal Administration/State Returning Officer.
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