Next Castilian-Leonese regional election

The next Castilian-Leonese regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 25 June 2023, to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 81 seats in the Cortes will be up for election.

Next Castilian-Leonese regional election
No later than 25 June 2023
All 81 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León
41 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Luis Tudanca Alfonso Fernández Mañueco Francisco Igea
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 18 October 2014 1 April 2017 11 March 2019
Leader's seat Burgos Salamanca Valladolid
Last election 35 seats, 34.8% 29 seats, 31.5% 12 seats, 14.9%
Current seats 35 29 12
Seats needed 6 12 29
 
Leader Pablo Fernández Jesús García-Conde Luis Mariano Santos
Party Podemos–Equo Vox UPL
Leader since 14 February 2015 10 May 2019 26 March 2015
Leader's seat León Valladolid León
Last election 2 seats, 5.0% 1 seat, 5.5% 1 seat, 2.0%
Current seats 2 1 1
Seats needed 39 40 40
 
Leader José Ramón Budiño
Party XAV
Leader since January 2019
Leader's seat Ávila
Last election 1 seat, 0.7%
Current seats 1
Seats needed 40
Incumbent President

Alfonso Fernández Mañueco
PP

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castile and León are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] All members of the Cortes of Castile and León are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.[1][3]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 26 May 2023. The election decree shall be published in the BOCYL no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 25 June 2023.[1][3][5]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary status

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition[6]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 35 35
People's Parliamentary Group PP 29 29
Citizens's Parliamentary Group Cs 12 12
Mixed Group Podemos 2 5
Vox 1
UPL 1
XAV 1

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 41 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
Sigma Dos/RTVCyL[p 1][p 2] 14–19 May 2020 1,200 ? 33.4 36.6 7.2 10.5 [lower-alpha 1] [lower-alpha 1] – – 6.9 3.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3][p 4] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 34.5
36		 38.8
40		 7.5
2		 7.1
2		 4.4
0		 1.5
0		 2.1
1		 0.5
0		 – 3.3
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 66.6 31.3
29		 31.6
31		 7.6
4		 16.6
14		 [lower-alpha 1] [lower-alpha 1] 0.7
0		 0.4
0		 9.3
3		 0.3
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 N/A 65.8 34.8
35		 31.5
29		 14.9
12		 5.5
1		 5.0
2		 2.3
0		 2.0
1		 0.7
1		 – 3.3

Notes
  1. Within Unidas Podemos.
gollark: How immutable is it? Can you mutate items in it, thus creating apiohazardous conditions?
gollark: I can only be amazed by things with an amazingness quotient above or equal to 0.33338.
gollark: Depends what.
gollark: This is, of course, wrong.
gollark: That sounds plausible.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "El PP volvería a ganar las elecciones y dependería de Vox para formar gobierno en Castilla y León". RTVCyL (in Spanish). 27 May 2020.
  2. "El PP volvería a ganar las elecciones en Castilla y León con el 36.6 % de los votos". Sigma Dos (in Spanish). 28 May 2020.
  3. "EP (17My): Castilla y León – subidón de Mañueco, que roza la absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  4. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 14/2007, de 30 de noviembre, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla y León". Organic Law No. 14 of 30 November 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 3/1987, de 30 de marzo, Electoral de Castilla y León". Law No. 3 of 30 March 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  6. "Parliamentary groups". www.ccyl.es (in Spanish). Cortes de Castilla y León. Retrieved 23 July 2020.
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