2018 Hessian state election

The 2018 Hessian state election was held on 28 October 2018 to elect the members of the Landtag of Hesse.[1] The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and The Greens led by Minister-President Volker Bouffier retained its majority by a slim margin of one seat.

2018 Hesse state election

28 October 2018
All 137 seats of the Landtag of Hesse, including 27 overhang and leveling seats 69 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	2,882,261 (67.3%) 5.9%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Volker Bouffier Tarek Al-Wazir Priska Hinz Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel Party CDU Green SPD Last election 47 seats, 38.3% 14 seats, 11.1% 37 seats, 30.7% Seats won 40 29 29 Seat change 7 15 8 Popular vote 776,910 570,512 570,446 Percentage 27.0% 19.8% 19.8% Swing 11.3% 8.7% 10.9%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Rainer Rahn René Rock Janine Wissler Jan Schalauske Party AfD FDP Left Last election 0 seats, 4.1% 6 seats, 5.0% 6 seats, 5.2% Seats won 19 11 9 Seat change 19 5 3 Popular vote 378,692 215,946 181,263 Percentage 13.1% 7.5% 6.3% Swing 9.0% 2.5% 1.1%
Minister-President before election Volker Bouffier CDU Elected Minister-President Volker Bouffier CDU

The election was held two weeks after the 2018 Bavarian state election, which saw the CDU and Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffer major losses, with third parties making major gains. The result in Hesse was largely similar, with the CDU and SPD losing more than 20 percentage points between them, while the Greens and Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained approximately 9 points each. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The Left also made gains. Compared to the 2013 election turnout fell by 5.9 points to 67.3%.[2]

Despite suffering the worst losses of any party, the CDU remained the largest party by a comfortable margin. The Greens and SPD each won 29 seats and 19.8% of the vote; the Greens moved into second place by an extremely narrow margin of just 66 votes. AfD, which failed to win seats in 2013, won 13.1% and 19 seats. By entering the Landtag in Hesse, it became the only third party present in all sixteen German state legislatures.

The election was overshadowed by the poor condition of the federal government in the aftermath of the "asylum quarrel" in June/July and the crisis around Hans-Georg Maaßen in September.[3][4] One day after the election, federal Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she would not seek re-election as CDU leader at the party convention in early December, nor seek her party's nomination as Chancellor candidate for the next federal election.[5]

Background

The incumbent Hesse government coalition consisted of CDU and the Greens.

The regional election for Hesse, along with the Bavarian state election held just two weeks before, was widely seen as a test for the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD coalition of Angela Merkel's fourth federal cabinet.[6]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2013 result
					Votes (%)	Seats
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Volker Bouffier	38.3%	47 / 110
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel	30.7%	37 / 110
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Tarek Al-Wazir Priska Hinz	11.1%	14 / 110
	Linke	The Left Die Linke	Democratic socialism	Janine Wissler Jan Schalauske	5.2%	6 / 110
	FDP	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei	Classical liberalism	René Rock	5.0%	6 / 110

Opinion polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	Grüne	Linke	FDP	AfD	Others	Lead
2018 state election	28 Oct 2018	–	27.0	19.8	19.8	6.3	7.5	13.1	6.5	7.2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	24–25 Oct 2018	1,025	28	20	20	8	8	12	4	8
Civey	18–24 Oct 2018	4,467	27.0	22.0	18.5	7.5	8.0	13.0	4.0	5.0
INSA	18–22 Oct 2018	1,004	26	21	21	8	7	13	4	5
Infratest dimap	16–17 Oct 2018	1,002	26	21	20	8	9	12	4	5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	15–17 Oct 2018	1,035	26	20	22	8	8	12	4	4
Civey	2–12 Oct 2018	4,549	28.5	24.9	18.2	7.5	5.6	11.8	3.5	3.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	24 Sep–1 Oct 2018	1,038	29	23	18	8	6	13	3	6
Civey	19–26 Sep 2018	4,509	28.6	23.0	15.8	8.8	7.6	12.4	3.8	5.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	17–19 Sep 2018	1,039	32	25	15	8	6	11	3	7
Infratest dimap	13–19 Sep 2018	1,000	28	23	17	8	7	14	3	5
INSA	3–6 Sep 2018	1,039	29	24	14	8	7	14	4	5
Civey	14–30 Aug 2018	4,532	31.1	23.9	13.4	7.9	7.1	12.7	3.9	7.2
Infratest dimap	14–19 Jun 2018	1,003	31	22	14	7	7	15	4	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–11 Jun 2018	1,049	31	25	13	8	8	11	4	6
INSA	9–16 May 2018	1,067	33	24	13	8	7	11	4	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–21 Mar 2018	1,011	31	26	13	8	7	10	5	5
Allensbach	19 Dec 2017–31 Jan 2018	760	31	26	12	7	9	11	?	5
Forsa	8–22 Feb 2018	1,035	33	23	14	7	8	10	5	10
Infratest dimap	9–16 Jan 2018	1,006	31	25	13	8	8	12	3	6
2017 federal election	24 Sep 2017	–	30.9	23.5	9.7	8.1	11.5	11.9	4.4	7.3
Infratest dimap	5–10 Jan 2017	1,003	32	24	14	8	6	14	2	8
dimap	15–22 Aug 2016	1,000	36	27	13	6	4	9	5	9
Forsa	1–8 Apr 2016	1,004	33	27	11	6	7	10	6	6
Infratest dimap	12–16 Jan 2016	1,000	34	26	11	8	5	12	4	8
Forsa	17–26 Aug 2015	1,009	38	28	13	5	5	4	7	14
dimap	6–13 Jul 2015	1,003	41	27	14	6	6	2	4	14
dimap	10–14 Dec 2014	1,000	38	27	16	7	2	5	5	11
2014 European election	25 May 2014	–	30.6	30.3	12.9	5.6	4.1	9.1	7.3	0.3
Forsa	18–27 Feb 2014	1,002	39	27	12	7	5	5	5	12
2013 federal election	22 Sep 2013	–	39.2	28.8	9.9	6.0	5.6	5.6	4.9	10.4
2013 state election	22 Sep 2013	–	38.3	30.7	11.1	5.2	5.0	4.1	5.6	7.6

Results

Summary of the 28 October 2018 final election results for the Hessian Landtag[2]

Party		Constituency					Party list					Total seats
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Seats	+/−	%
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	843,068	29.3%	−13.4	40	−1	776,910	27.0%	−11.3	0	−6	40	−7	29.2%
	Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen)	517,904	18.0%	+8.7	5	+5	570,512	19.8%	+8.7	24	+10	29	+15	21.2%
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	670,637	23.3%	−11.8	10	−4	570,446	19.8%	−10.9	19	−4	29	−8	21.2%
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	362,210	12.6%	+11.2	0		378,692	13.1%	+9.0	19	+19	19	+9	13.9%
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	205,384	7.1%	+4.1	0		215,946	7.5%	+2.5	11	+5	11	+5	8.0%
	The Left (Die Linke)	164,535	5.7%	+0.5	0		181,332	6.3%	+1.1	9	+3	9	+3	6.6%
	Others	109,332	4.0%	±0	0	±0	187,423	6.5%	±0	0	±0	0	±0	0%
Total		2,873,070	100.0%		55		2,881,261	100.0%		82		137	+27	100%

State government formation

Despite heavy losses inflicted on the party, the CDU returned to government after negotiating a coalition agreement with the Greens, the second consecutive such arrangement between the two parties. The two parties formed the narrowest possible majority in the Landtag, occupying 69 seats. As part of the agreement, the Greens increased their representation in the Cabinet, holding four of the eleven portfolios.[7] The returned coalition only became possible after a recount of votes took place several weeks after the election, due to computer glitches which affected some election night results. Following the recount, the state election commissioner announced that compared to the provisional figures, there were no significant shifts in the percentages, and the distribution of seats in the state parliament had not changed.[8]

References

1. http://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm#termine-2018-01-23
2. https://statistik-hessen.de/l_2018/html/landesergebnis Official result
3. Was die Hessenwahl für die Bundespolitik bedeutet, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 28 October 2018
4. Schicksalswahl für Merkels Koalition, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 26 October 2018
5. Angela Merkel bietet Verzicht auf Parteivorsitz an, Die Zeit, 29 October 2018
6. "Hesse election: Merkel facing double trouble in German vote". BBC News. 26 October 2018. Retrieved 28 October 2018.
7. "How the unlikely team of CDU and Greens have reunited in Hesse". The Local. 20 December 2018.
8. "Merkel's CDU and Greens can breathe sigh of relief after Hesse vote recount". The Local. 16 November 2018.

External links

Media related to Hesse state election 2018 at Wikimedia Commons

• Hessischer Landeswahlleiter (Official website, German language)
• Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl in Hessen (wahlrecht.de)
• KOALITIONSVERTRAG (Text of the CDU/Greens Coalition Agreement, German)